Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[Klick]

Page 13 atm, I'll finish later today

TOWNY TOWN TOWN:

RLotus, Amélie

Both of their thoughts on the game feel super legitimate up to this point.
I want to put bugs pray up there as well but I'm not quite as certain.

I want to lim clidd or geraintm today.

[Klick]

bugspray*
thx autocorrect

[Not_Mafia]

VC 1.12

Klick (0)-

Da Dude (4)-

AliceK, Gretchen, Drippinggoofball, Klick

Amélie (0)-

DrippingGoofball (1)-

HypoSoc

AliceK (1)-

Da Dude

geraintm (0)-

Gretchen (0)-

April Ludgate (3)-

MiniMegabyte, bugspray, April Ludgate

RLotus (0)-

clidd (0)-

bugspray (1)-

clidd

HypoSoc (1)-

RLotus

MiniMegabyte (0)-

Not Voting (2)-

Amélie, geraintm

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-03-06 20:00:00)

- Mar 3rd 20:00 GMT

[geraintm]

So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

What is this

got there way before you on this. check out my post 312
why you wanna eliminate me though??

[Not_Mafia]

Da Dude and Hyposoc have been prodded.

[Klick]

VOTE: dadude

thought about entrapta a bit instead of actually posting here last night

e-1

i just shouted at dripping goofball for placing a vote with zero explanation, and then you go and do the exact same thing.
you clearly have a reason.

Just glad not_mafia is the mod and not playing

'I've just seen two votes on the wagon I'm on that I don't like, and now it's at E-1. I'm going to...'

A) unvote

B) throw some shade while staying on the wagon

[bugspray]

There has been no effort to make another wagon. Scum is either unwilling or unable to make another wagon and I believe they are unwilling to make one because they are happy to have this wagon on someone that they know is town

[Klick]

So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

I...I want to, like, townread this effort, but something...about HypoSoc suggests they are rather wordy as both alignments. I'm not really able to read through this post currently and, uh, break it down to the concepts or whatever. Can someone help me understand what this post is really saying?

fwiw this really closely matches how I feel about this post
'want to townread but hesitant' fits the bill

[Klick]

I'm tinfoilin' a Geraint, Amelie, Da Dude team right now, but i think it almost makes too much sense

Actually really surprised you don't have Amelie as town here.

[Klick]

Although, that Idris Elba vote got some stank on it

i don't understand this?

i just realised my random vote was on the big wagonUNVOTE:

I feel like...like scum would try to act more clueless? Does anyone know, er...does anyone know if geraint is the type of person to feign ignorance as scum?

oh shit I missed this
hmm. Still not really a big fan of geraintm from before that but not as convinced

[Klick]

Actually that post was like 7 hours later so it's not that great a save.

[Klick]

I don't think that the way Amélie was expressing herself about her impressions is necessarily malicious, but the reasons described don't make much sense to me. I believe that she is unconsciously compressing a specific interpretation of the facts to fit into a particular theory of hers, whether bc of confbias or some other mental process that I am unaware of (I don't read minds). Probably more town than not, but I still need to have more samples of her reasoning to understand the mentality that she is coming from in AI terms.

*flip*
*flop*

[Klick]

Ydrasse reflects me as ''lost'', and this is unusual, considering that she can project on a organic level a flow of towny interactions as scum, just like she did in FL vs Hectic.

The apathy and the gradual loss of interest, as well as the eventual exit, within the context of she needing to play in side games and not having the time for the current game (plus boring gamestate), make me think that the slot is likely town. There is still a chance of scum!Ydrasse simply not being interested in the game, but I am convinced that I can reevaluate if that is the case depending on the successor.

*flip*
*flop*

VOTE: clidd

[bugspray]

Klik is cool

[Klick]

Alright I am all caught up and this is my reads list

Town > Null > Scum
Clidd
Geraintm
Gretchen
Da Dude
RLotus
DGB
Alice
Amelie
Klick
Bugspray
Hypo
April

VOTE: April
I really am struggling to understand them. They post a lot and half if not most of the posts seem kinda shitposty which makes it hard to really sort them properly.

This is pretty close to being the opposite of my reads
Pretty weird post to make for scum though, and I can see how a town!Mini writes this. She kinda outright says that she's 'having trouble sorting' April instead of outright finding her scummy, and that's the sort of nuance and lack of thinking about presentation that I see a lot more often from less experienced town than scum

[clidd]

Update:

{April Ludgate} {bugspray}

{geraintm}

{MiniMegabyte} {Klick}

↑

{Amélie}

↑

{RLotus} {AliceK} {Gretchen}

↓

{HypoSoc}

{DrippingGoofball}

{Da Dude}

[Klick]

I can't go back and check rn clidd but like
how much confidence do you have in Da Dude scum?

[clidd]

70%

[Klick]

Because I feel like you shouldn't be moving me up if you think Da Dude is scum because my catchup should make plenty of sense to you from the perspective of a buddy who came in wanting to save their buddy

[clidd]

No, my mind doesn't work like that.

[clidd]

Town can protect scum too, not just scum.

[geraintm]

Although, that Idris Elba vote got some stank on it

i don't understand this?

i just realised my random vote was on the big wagonUNVOTE:

I feel like...like scum would try to act more clueless? Does anyone know, er...does anyone know if geraint is the type of person to feign ignorance as scum?

oh shit I missed this
hmm. Still not really a big fan of geraintm from before that but not as convinced

it was only a gap of like 9 posts though? do not underestimate my cluelessness. im fairly sure i've asked 2 or 3 other dumb questions in this game that show how invested i am in day 1

[clidd]

@Klick

Being town doesn't mean that your reads are always going to be correct.

It's relatively easy for you to misinterpret something and end up townreading scum, as well as scumreading town.

[clidd]

In others words, my read on you is individual, not associative.

[clidd]

70%

Depending on what he posts, it can increase or decrease.