This makes no sense, because DT was definitely protecting someone, and the only ones being pushed to be lynched in lieu of DT were PB/Brie. PB was pushing moment/Brie.
DT also pushed Gamma and SS pushed Krazy but neither of those two were at risk for leaving over DT.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
This makes no sense, because DT was definitely protecting someone, and the only ones being pushed to be lynched in lieu of DT were PB/Brie. PB was pushing moment/Brie.
DT also pushed Gamma and SS pushed Krazy but neither of those two were at risk for leaving over DT.
Dann/Taly makes 0 sense, since no one was pushing either of them. Taly has been my #1 townread since the getgo and that hasn’t changed. She also was adamantly opposed to PB mislynch. Why does scum!Taly adamantly oppose PB mislynch. What is the scum motivation in doing that?
As for Dann, why does scum!Dann IC Urist, when you were the main person pushing him, pre-dance?
I do respect your Gamma read but mechanically, I don’t see how she can be town here? Because I have a hard gut townread on Taly, similar to SC 2 and I was right there and I doubt I’m wrong here either.
Based on our PT and the passion I see coming from many of Dann’s posts, I have reason to think this isn’t scum!Dann here.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
I'm going to work toward towncasing the townbloc, too.
I feel like the response I got on the last page concerning
Gamma/Urist
completely ignored my entire read progression and thought proccess throughout this game.
This is virtually the one situation I wanted to avoid.
We're low on pairs. People do convenient read-reversals to scumread me or FINALLY voice a scumread on me - when I feel I've gamesolved - and now the game goes down to whether less-active town do something or we lose to scum via deadline or mislynch.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
This makes no sense, because DT was definitely protecting someone, and the only ones being pushed to be lynched in lieu of DT were PB/Brie. PB was pushing moment/Brie.
DT also pushed Gamma and SS pushed Krazy but neither of those two were at risk for leaving over DT.
Dann/Taly makes 0 sense, since no one was pushing either of them. Taly has been my #1 townread since the getgo and that hasn’t changed. She also was adamantly opposed to PB mislynch. Why does scum!Taly adamantly oppose PB mislynch. What is the scum motivation in doing that?
As for Dann, why does scum!Dann IC Urist, when you were the main person pushing him, pre-dance?
I do respect your Gamma read but mechanically, I don’t see how she can be town here? Because I have a hard gut townread on Taly, similar to SC 2 and I was right there and I doubt I’m wrong here either.
Based on our PT and the passion I see coming from many of Dann’s posts, I have reason to think this isn’t scum!Dann here.
So, if not Gamma, one of Brie/moment makes sense due to my DT protection theory. But both are extremely unlikely to be scum and I do tend to agree with moment being possible lynchbait.
So, gun to head, I think it’s probably Brie/Gamma but both Taly and Dann think Gamma over Brie abd Krazy was wrong on PB, so I think I should sheep Taly on Gamma.
I also didn’t like her sudden switch to DT at the end. It read to me like she was in full survivalist mode and really didn’t care which of Brie/DT got lynched, so long as it wasn’t her.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
In post 5277, Taly wrote:I'm going to work toward towncasing the townbloc, too.
I feel like the response I got on the last page concerning
Gamma/Urist
completely ignored my entire read progression and thought proccess throughout this game.
This is virtually the one situation I wanted to avoid.
We're low on pairs. People do convenient read-reversals to scumread me or FINALLY voice a scumread on me - when I feel I've gamesolved - and now the game goes down to whether less-active town do something or we lose to scum via deadline or mislynch.
Yes, we can’t ignore the clock that’s ticking, which is how I knew PB had to be town at the end, because it made 0 sense for scum!her to put forth the Dann/me, Krazy/Taly endgame theory to speed the game along if he were scum. He clearly had the deadline in mind, so realizing that, I cannot see any world where Taly is ever scum here. Krazy has also been watching the clock. I’m sure I’ve mentioned that a few times as well.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
Well mechanically, if you, me, Krazy and Dann are all town, then one scum would have to be in moment/Brie. I’m respecting Ank/RC reads and thinking it’s not moment, so I don’t agree with PB’s moment WIFOM theory.
The question is which pair do we lynch first? I am not willing to lynch you/Krazy Dann over them, so that’s where I’m at rn.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
I don't want to hardpush that just yet because I townread
Moment
more and the game depends on his read on
Gamma+TheBrie
since
Urist
hasn't shown that he's deeply evaluated the reasons to scumread either.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
I feel like the game is solved but there's maybe 2 people on the same wavelength now, and at least as many people who would disagree with me and finally hardpush me as scum for it because it's easy for them.
I can't force people to read the game.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
This kind of proved that my opinions are only valuable when it's convenient to listen to them.
That's one of a laundry list of reasons on why being universally townread is a double-edged sword with a smaller dagger being pointed at you.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
It's not me. And Gamma and Moment don't look like scum together. Which worries me.
I don't know if I'll get on much in the next few days. It's actually after midnight now, and i should be asleep. i don't have time to explain what which bits i agree and disagree on regarding everything that's been said lately. But I'll do one thing.
feel that Gamma is using this situation to his advantage to pocket you. I understand you won't readily believe this because you feel the current game state is "too easy." I understand that fear, I had it a lot earlier in the game.
It means I can't just be lazy because scum are actually putting up a fight now. I've been looking over the game and rereading things. I am
very confident
the solve is
Gamma/Brie
. I'm going to do my best to show you why. I hope you will read what I have to say and balance it with your feelings about the game state to see how likely it is.
I also have very very strong reasons to town read Taly, Krazy, and Nancy.
Let me start with Gamma and Brie, and why I think this solve is correct.
The basis of this case hinges on the fact that scum don't want to pair up with each other. I don't think it's hard to accept that scum avoided that at all costs this game. It's too risky. If just one member of the pair comes under fire, the scum team could lose two members just like that. There are rare instances where it might work, but I think it always increases mafia win rate to pair with town here. So, why is this fact so important? It's important because DT, Gamma, and Brie (my solve) were among the final players to pair up.
This means that if there was more than one scum amongst the players who paired after Nancy and I, they
had
to make sure they didn't pair with each other. Think about it. If you entertain the possibility that Gamma and theBrie could be scum, DT
absolutely does not
want to pair there. He's likely going to be one of the first lynches (and he was) with how the game was looking, if he pairs with either of his team mates then he's basically throwing the game.
With all of that in mind, let's look at how discussion for dance partners played out:
Let me set the scene. This is post 3153, page 127. Due to activity, DT hasn't had the chance to pair with anyone yet. The other unpaired players include: TheBrie, Gamma, Something_Smart, PvtUrist, Moment, and Allomancer. Three ladies. Four gentlemen.
DT
has to choose between S_S, Brie, and Gamma to take to the dance.
Gamma comes into the thread and this is how DT engages with her, given DT had previously said he was looking for someone towny to pair up with, this makes it pretty easy to distance Gamma despite the small sample size of ladies he has to choose from.
Reading through this exchange, try to place yourself in Gamma's shoes. Ask yourself if you would respond to DT in this way as town, specifically the way Gamma progresses her read on DT.
In post 3170, Krazy wrote:saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear
...ouch?
I still haven't really seen much explanation of why I'm such a consensus scumread. I'm suspecting that it actually is just because I'm a replacement.
you are being too concerned about how you are being viewed by tohers
I rather think I've shown the appropriate amount of concern, given that I seem to be essentially an automatic lynch as soon as the dance starts...
i brought it up before for sure you just ignored me i think
In post 3226, Gamma Emerald wrote:Also despite you having over 100 posts until now I haven't interacted with you at all. So you coming out with this feels like a massive crock of shit.
In post 3228, Gamma Emerald wrote:Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.
In post 3228, Gamma Emerald wrote:Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.
how the fuck am i a liar?
i never fucking lie as either alignment
like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol
In post 3228, Gamma Emerald wrote:Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.
how the fuck am i a liar?
i never fucking lie as either alignment
like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol
I understand people can think the same thoughts as both alignments.
But I cannot for a second believe you're being truthful about when you've been active.
On a side note, fuck I wanted to pair with Krazy. I was trying to figure out a read list so I could determine Krazy's alignment before forming the PT so I could shitpost there.
Gamma fabricates this scum read on DT out of the blue because she apparently believes DT has been lying about when he's been active. It's such an easy thing to fact check and such a ludicrous thing to scum read someone for that I can't believe this is town!Gamma, I have to believe that this is scum!Gamma fabricating an excuse to scum read DT and using emotion to make it look legit.
In post 3228, Gamma Emerald wrote:Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.
how the fuck am i a liar?
i never fucking lie as either alignment
like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol
I understand people can think the same thoughts as both alignments. But I cannot for a second believe you're being truthful about when you've been active.
On a side note, fuck I wanted to pair with Krazy. I was trying to figure out a read list so I could determine Krazy's alignment before forming the PT so I could shitpost there.
I mean. what don't you think am I being truthful about? I have been active but like realistically spent like 30 minutes for 3, 4 days out of how many days? i think 8? days we've been playing for? maybe i am thinking it's more than that by mistake because the week's been hectic but why are you calling me a liar for no reason? make me understnad
In post 3220, DoubtingThomas wrote:
by some miracle you post whenever i am in the thread which is a rare occasion
Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.
In post 3220, DoubtingThomas wrote:
by some miracle you post whenever i am in the thread which is a rare occasion
Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.
dude i am nto fucking lying. maybe you can iso me and see how many times i saw your post/commented about you which is a lot in terms of how many different times i entered the thread (only 3, 4 days tbh)
In post 3247, Gamma Emerald wrote:Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.
Not necessarily. Some people are really forgettable.
I agree but claiming something like that makes sirens blare for me.
Called out on the stupidness of it. "Sirens still blaring."
Dr. Worm would have been a good second imo but that's also taken. Out of the rest I need to look over Moment, Allo maybe, and Urist I guess I'd be okay with.
And with that, DT and Gamma have quickly and forcibly decreased the chances they'll ever pair with each other. Also, consider this: Gamma apparently had such a visceral reaction to DT here, scum reading him enough based off it that she would remove him from the pool of gentleman she'd pair with, but never once pushed DT any further on this or tried to convince others that DT was scum. This whole interaction specifically is why I thought Gamma pushing Brie first instead of DT at the beginning of the dance didn't make sense. I highly doubt Gamma would just forget about this with how emotional it apparently made her.
Spoiler: TheBrie
In post 3419, TheBrie wrote:DoubtingThomas and Pvturist haven't asked me though, and Moment and Allo have. Still stuck between them. So if people want to be helpful, they can tell me why I should go with one of the other, or why I should hold out for another invitation.
Good night.
Important to note that Brie specifically says DT hasn't asked her yet in this post.
poeple scum read me, why? maybe i can clarify. all ive seen really is 'i cant process where his reads are coming from' which is funny because as scum i am way more thorough and logical with my reads :/
i think i am at the point where i'd rather just out in pre dance if i dont get brie maybe
we'll see how SS and gamma posts
I already outlined this before as being scummy when I cased DT. This post comes only 15 posts after Brie's where she said DT hadn't asked her yet. DT makes this scummy-as-fuck "oh maybe I'll just go out pre-dance" claim, lamenting it as a consequence of him not being able to get Brie. He never fucking asked Brie. Why? Because he was never really trying to get her.
i want thebrie as my partner but it is likely moment becomes partners with thebrie i think
so i am thinking who out of SS and gamma is more townie?
honestly wouldnt mind uh not having a pair but like that'd be gamethrow or somethingsomething
i am thinking SS at the moment
Again he mentions how he wants Brie. He still hasn't asked her to dance with him. He's just accepting that Moment and Brie will become partners without truly fighting for it at all. At this point in the game, Brie was town read by most people. Why doesn't DT try harder to go after a potentially strong!town in Brie as opposed to SS who most people had stated around this point in the game might be a good first lynch? It doesn't make sense not to push harder for Brie, unless Brie is his partner, meaning taking a very low town for his partner becomes the optimal decision.
The second half of this post also read not genuine when you consider the exchange DT and Gamma already had previously.
In post 3758, Moment wrote:I don't see where people are coming from on Brie being scum and if I'm being considered to be so towny then I should think that my own opinion should hold some weight.
Assume Brie is scum. Why wait to accept my offer and still be questioning Allo? It's clear that she knows that pairing with him is more likely to get her lynched whereas people townread me.
if she speed accepts her offer when people are calling her scum, what then?
The tides change, RC and a few other people start questioning Brie town. Keep this in mind.
In post 3781, RadiantCowbells wrote:this is so fucking frustrating because i'm not even 100% on brie being scum. i just think she's... not locktown. i don't want her treated as locktown. there's enough agreed locktowns that we can work around her
so right now I either play against my wincondition or be forced to make an incredibly divisive play that will only see justification part of the time
I just think that whoever you get paired with, Moment, is going to end up being the conftown pair not nightkilled before endgame and I want to be super choosy about it
Here are my terms: accept them or don't, but I should hope that you at least consider them.
I ask SS, and you don't let your small doubt on Brie turn into a deathtunnel simply because you don't 100% townread her.
In post 3812, RadiantCowbells wrote:i even acutely know ahead of time that this waffling is going to get wolfread but i can't do anything about it cuz like
fuuck
ss questioned basically every inclusion in the locktown pool (taly, nd, etc) then tried to get him(her?)self hitched with moment
I'll be nice and not wolf read you for that. In recent experience I've seen some of the worst misreads, and it's left be deeply paranoid of my own gut, and kinda appreciative of people who aren't dogmatically certain of everything. That said, I'm still going to be paranoid that you are actually a wolf. You and everyone. But seriously, I'll try to trust myself and people. it'll be better when we have something concrete to go off.
One thing that could be said on SS's behalf is that she hasn't accepted Moment yet, even though she had the opportunity.
Now I'm pretty sure I currently can't accept Moment.
Oh, and Moment, if you read this, did you ever answer my question about Allomancer?
@Mod, is a gentleman ask one lady, then a second lady, can the first lady still accept? The offer wasn't withdrawn in this situation.
Moment's offer to SS occurred on Feb 12th, 10:39pm PST. Brie accepted it February 13th, 12:46am PST.
Two hours
after Moment extended his invitation to SS and specifically asked Brie to wait to accept his invitation, Brie accepted it anyway. Now, I know Brie has said it's because she wasn't sure she could get back on before the deadline. I hate to pick on activity issues, but I find this hard to believe. The deadline was about 30 hours away from when she accepted Moment's invitation. The fact of the matter was, Brie already had a standing invitation from Allo, so it wasn't as if she had to spend time a bunch of time to make sure she got a pairing. All she'd have to do is make sure to log on and say "I accept X invitation" in bold before the deadline. The fact that she blatantly disrespects Moment's wishes and accepts his invitation so readily only two hours after he issued an invitation to SS is just too much for me to ignore.
Because, if my solve is correct, her hasty actions make a lot more sense. If Moment and SS had paired, it would be disastrous for this hypothetical scum team. That would force DT to pair with either Gamma or Brie, and the other lady to pair with Allo or PvT, both easy mislynches. The hastiness of Brie's actions here make a lot more sense if this is the case.
The strangeness of all these interactions makes a lot more sense if DT/Gamma/Brie is S/S/S. The last few days of the pre-dance read like an awkward dance between the three to
not
be paired up with each other. I want other players to go back and read those pages themselves and see if they see the same things I do. I realize it's possible I'm conf biasing to the extreme here, but I do think there are some things I've outlined above that are just so unnatural for town players to say or do as well as for them to be S/T interactions.
I understand feeling like the game state is "too easy." But I think it's because town really has played well and Taly/Krazy/Nancy are all town.
Assume that this is true, that we really do have the dream town bloc. What is the scum team game plan? ICing and pocketing you seems obvious, throws suspicion on me, sets up Gamma to get into late game. Note DT's mention of how Gamma is "obv scum" but can be allowed to live because of you. I think scum came into this dance thinking they were pretty much fucked, and decided to make things as messy as possible by hard bussing.
I urge you to take a critical look at Gamma. She has gone from Taly as "lock town" to scum reading him with you because it's convenient, because this is what she needs to win the game. Like... LOOK at #5254.
All that being said. Pvt
, if you truly think I'm wrong (or scum as it may be), you NEED to try your best to convince people. If you really think Taly is scum, what you've done so far isn't going to cut it. You're the IC, people HAVE to listen to you. I don't understand why you say you can't case or just won't do it, because if you're confident than we really need to understand why and you need to be fucking persuasive.
I'm pretty set in the read that there are 0 scum in Taly/Krazy/Nancy at this point. If there are really two scum in the town bloc as you suggest, I don't know how we win this game. It's going to be hard to get the two town players within the town bloc to realize that if it's the case.
If it is the case, and you strongly believe that, you HAVE to be vocal and transparent as to why so we can discuss it. I don't want to shut you down or discredit you. Even if you fucking think I'm the most likely scum, explain why. Even if it purely has to do with the game state, keep explaining why, don't stop repeating yourself until everyone can engage with you and you can get feedback and people have an actually true chance to consider your thoughts. The discussion needs to happen so if you're this sure of your reads on Gamma and Brie, you gotta try harder than this for town. Please.
I will try to do a part 2 tomorrow for my town cases on Nancy/Taly/Krazy if I have time.
I rest my fucking case.
I think I’m mindmelding with you on this. I just can’t see how Brie is townier than you/Krazy/Taly. Both Ank/RC hardtownread moment. And Brie lines up with the player DT was likely protecting unless PB was right about it being moment but I don’t think that’s likely.
However, If I was ignoring wagonmics and POE, I think Brie is still townier than Gamma, so probably Gamma over Brie, first?
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
I don't want to hardpush that just yet because I townread
Moment
more and the game depends on his read on
Gamma+TheBrie
since
Urist
hasn't shown that he's deeply evaluated the reasons to scumread either.
Yes, I agree, despite his inactivity, moment does seem to have a much more thorough grasp on the gamestate than Urist.
So I think we should probably trust RC/Ank on their town!moment read.
I just don’t want to entertain rn that any of my top 3 towns could be scum here. But I want to hear moment’s assesment of the gamestate because no offense to Urist but I trust moment’s reads over yours.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
It's completely reasonable to assume that they were NKed off read accuracy too.
I want Moment to come in and engage. He should have a stake in this too. I never found a solid reason to scumread him beyond PoE.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
Statistically speaking it's probably not scum-scum. Krazy doesn't seem easy to read so I don't really think I'm qualified to read there.
Better yet, if you believe
Krazy
IS pocketing me, then how do you think pairs should go?
I'm fine with you pairing with Krazy as long as you think you'd eventually be able to see through his pocketing, because by definition as long as he is alive you will also be alive to catch him and leave on him.
If you wouldn't feel comfortable reading him, there don't seem to be any other townread gentlemen left. Probably pick one that you at least have a decent idea is town and think you can read pretty well, and then regardless of what other people say if you end up townreading him you won't be lynched.
Who do YOU want to pair with?
First of all, not someone who's overtly scumreading me, for instance even if Allo offered I'd refuse because if town he'd probably just leave immediately.
However, I do want to pair with someone who is a pretty easy lynch (though not necessarily widely scumread), because that seems to be how my slot is treated. (I still have the feeling that this is mostly because I'm the only replacement... discrimination ) That way, if we do end up getting mislynched at least two question marks will be removed at once, and if the person I pick turns out to be scum we get to see scum squirm to try to keep us alive for as long as possible.
In post 2905, Dannflor wrote:I don't see a scenario where scum would *want* a scum/scum pairing unless they were forced into it.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. If two scum are confident in their ability to make it far, a scum-scum pairing allows scum to win with a town-town pairing still alive, which could be a huge boon.
In post 2912, Dannflor wrote:@S_S, you've been in the game a fair bit now that I think you should have been able to form some reads based on what you've seen so far. You don't have to be explicitly detailed or super confident, I just want to hear your thoughts on the players who've made the most impression on you. Your ISO is a lot of fluff, useless questioning, and a little bit of setup spec. I need to see something more concrete.
Sure. Bear in mind that my reads are still nebulous. I can make them look concrete, but don't expect me to stick to them.
Townreads are, in playerlist order, RC, Allo, Worm, Vedith, Ank, Taly.
Nulltowns are Moment, Thomas, Pink.
1371 is a post I randomly came across while looking through stuff. Noting it here because it is the source of both my Allo and my Vedith townreads.
like the entire dann/nancy pair is excluded
taly/krazy is included... but i'm not even sure that krazy is villa so locktowning them becomes pretty convenient
RC is really good at this game, so I’m going to trust his reads and my number #1 townread. How anyone could possibly think Taly could be scum here after PB flip, just boggles my mind.
VOTE: Gamma
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
It's completely reasonable to assume that they were NKed off read accuracy too.
I want Moment to come in and engage. He should have a stake in this too. I never found a solid reason to scumread him beyond PoE.
Yes, so in case the deep wolf theory has any merit, I think it’s safest to go with Gamma first but I really don’t want to entertain that possibility yet.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
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Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
I'm about mentally willing to just sheep nancy here and get this flip, but if rc was killed for reads accuracy, wouldn't the brie be the killer? He said he liked her for town at the verrrry end of his iso but he spent a lot of the second page of his iso pushing her to go early in the dance. I'm not the rc whisperer and I guess I'm just not in love with Gamma scum. Maybe Gamma is just a lot better at pocketing me than she used to but her progression on my slot at least doesn't look awful. Then again she did have that surge of activity post intermission. I would prefer brie first I guess.
I feel like I should just accept I'm wrong on Gamma and take the flip but it just feels really weird to not be the one driving a gamma lynch if she is scum, lol
Like Nancy, yeah that's the end of his iso, but that was something he said right before intermission.... After having spent several posts saying Brie had to go early and that was why he didn't want moment to pair with her. He flipped his read on her like 4 times so you shouldn't just cherry pick the end of his iso when scum wouldn't.
That being said I don't know who the second scum is. I probably would go gamma next after the brie simply due to the activity ping post intermission even despite her progression on me in predance looking natural.
VOTE: thebrie
I'll hammer gamma in 4 hours if people don't want the bread first.
solely based on the numerous points I've made and the strength of them.
I think
Brie
is scum and
Moment
is town, but it doesn't make sense for me to vote for a lower scumread versus a higher.
I do understand your POV though. Most games I've played in, there's always at least one scum lynch that I didn't initially push
(
DT
in this instance As I was the 4th vote there, even if he was a weaker scumread.)
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
I guess partly I'm also like, if somehow everything is awful and there's 0 scum in M-TB at this point, then mathematically there would have to be scum somewhere in Nancefloor and Taly. A red flip in M-TB let's us lynch Gamma knowing confidently that Pvt's 'double deepscum' theory is flawed. A double green flip in M-TB would let us know that there is a deep scum with mathematic certainty. So strategically, I feel like it makes more sense to lead into M-TB, so that we have the appropriate level of paranoia when thinking about the arguments of the proposed final 2 pairings.
I'm not sure that actually makes sense and at this point we really should just lynch the strongest scumreads and clearly for most of you that's Gamma. But I think that's one of the reasons I'm chafing just a bit with the Gamma hammer.
Pedit: Yeah, I appreciate that Taly. I think you've put a lot of thought into your case. <3
casting the vote now. XP I think the entire town is on the same page.
I trusted you on your case to
DT
and it's kind of funny how we're in opposite positions with
Gamma
now. XD
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
In post 5292, Krazy wrote:I'm about mentally willing to just sheep nancy here and get this flip, but if rc was killed for reads accuracy, wouldn't the brie be the killer? He said he liked her for town at the verrrry end of his iso but he spent a lot of the second page of his iso pushing her to go early in the dance. I'm not the rc whisperer and I guess I'm just not in love with Gamma scum. Maybe Gamma is just a lot better at pocketing me than she used to but her progression on my slot at least doesn't look awful. Then again she did have that surge of activity post intermission. I would prefer brie first I guess.
Well, I definitely believe that DT fell on his sword for his buddy. He flipping out at me, for suggesting he post in his PT with SS, makes 0 sense otherwise. Why couldn’t scum!DT make a few really townie posts to fool SS, right? DT survivalist scum plays alot better than you’ve seen here, so I think he was deliberately trying to get lynched.
And Gamma was in no danger of being flipped over DT, so that’s where I’m hesitating. If it weren’t for that I’d be a lot more confident in Gamma scum and then there’s Urist’s Gamma read and fwiw, Urist was the only one to correctly nail scum!Duck in that Nsg Treestump game, so I can’t just completely dismiss his Gamma read.
However, unless Urist are right about about one or more deep wolves and I think 2 isn’t very likely, how can at least one of Gamma and Brie/moment not be scum?
I really don’t think it’s moment, however.
I still have some low level paranoia about Brie for reasons I can’t elaborate on, so of course I could be fooled and Dann’s case about her disregarding moment’s preference to pair with SS by accepting, didn’t sit right with me.
And while I have trouble parsing Gamma and think there’s a possibility that Urist is right, I still think Brie is townier than Gamma, so that’s where I’m at rn.
So, this is the crux of it, I think.
I wish I could be more helpful. :/
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
In post 5293, Krazy wrote:I feel like I should just accept I'm wrong on Gamma and take the flip but it just feels really weird to not be the one driving a gamma lynch if she is scum, lol
Are you the Gamma whisperer like I am with Creature?
But seriously, all evidence points to Brie and moment not being scum together, so if Gamma is town here, who is scum!Brie’s partner?
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
) That way, if we do end up getting mislynched at least two question marks will be removed at once, and if the person I pick turns out to be scum we get to see scum squirm to try to keep us alive for as long as possible.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. If two scum are confident in their ability to make it far, a scum-scum pairing allows scum to win with a town-town pairing still alive, which could be a huge boon.In post 2905, Dannflor wrote:I don't see a scenario where scum would *want* a scum/scum pairing unless they were forced into it.Sure. Bear in mind that my reads are still nebulous. I can make them look concrete, but don't expect me to stick to them.In post 2912, Dannflor wrote:@S_S, you've been in the game a fair bit now that I think you should have been able to form some reads based on what you've seen so far. You don't have to be explicitly detailed or super confident, I just want to hear your thoughts on the players who've made the most impression on you. Your ISO is a lot of fluff, useless questioning, and a little bit of setup spec. I need to see something more concrete.
As I was the 4th vote there, even if he was a weaker scumread.)