Mafiascum.net

In post 5348, Titus wrote:

In post 5346, superbowl9 wrote:

In post 5344, Titus wrote:Because I feel DDL is a misexecute and if we're taking a shot, I'd rather hit scum. So Pickaxe Pete or SS.

I'd rather hit scum so let's shoot outside confscum?? If DDL is town then we have a guaranteed 1/2 scum!

So then we should execute Pickaxe but based on the popularity of DDL, I don't feel that's happening.

So your position is I should accept the misexecute?

In post 5353, Titus wrote:@superbowl @TGP
Shooting inside the group makes more sense if you feel there's a decent chance of being wrong I guess. You're accurate there and if Almost50 isn't taking a hero shot, that can't be held against us. Mathematically, it makes more sense to shoot outside the group, if we feel confident outside rather than inside.

Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.

This doesn't factor in reads.

If we factor in likely group reads, I feel we have a zero percent chance if DDL or jjh is selected.
Thus we go to 50/50 to the group collective.
And then still, 3/9 in the outside the collective.

If we're wrong on shooting SS (or just outside the group)...
Then we get 1/3
3/8

So if we're going to be wrong, then shooting within the group is better.

In post 5337, Titus wrote:The NKA regarding who made such a kill. Scum making such a kill isn't out of the ordinary. Plus is more likely to be protected on the night he gives out the power, if town even has a doctor.

In post 5342, Titus wrote:Give me a readslist that convinces me otherwise SS.

In post 5353, Titus wrote:Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.

In post 5354, MathBlade wrote:Math error:

Titus is assuming exactly one scum in those three. Number unknown.
Titus is also suffering from Monty Hall Problem.
Please revise.

In post 5357, superbowl9 wrote:we have AT LEAST a 33% chance (33%-100%) of hitting within conf group, we have anywhere from 1-4 in the other 9, so an 11%-44% chance. <-- when it's phrased like this it becomes clear what our option is

In post 4642, Something_Smart wrote:It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.

In post 5363, Something_Smart wrote:

In post 4642, Something_Smart wrote:It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.

In post 5362, Titus wrote:

Player Name	Execution Preference
shellyc	DDL>Pete>jjh
Chemist1422
Bell	DDL (doesn't disagree - yucky)
mastina	DDL
Nero Cain	DDL (but prefers outside)
MathBlade	Pete
Morning Mage	DDL, or outside mod's trio shelly or taylor
Almost50	Blank for good reason
superbowl9	jjh
Tayl0r Swift	DDL
jjh927	not DDL so Pete by PoE
Titus	Pickaxe Pete
NorwegianboyEE	DDL
Pickaxe Pete	DDL until "latest stunt by jjh"
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart	Not jjh [JJH is town, and SS is scum]
DrDolittle	Pete?
TheGoldenParadox

In post 5365, superbowl9 wrote:Just curious why do you think an ascetic claim is more likely town than scum here?

In post 5368, Titus wrote:I stand corrected. I think I have said my piece.

Pickaxe Chemist SS Bell.

Unless anyone has something specific to discuss with me, I am willing to wait on A50.

In post 5370, Titus wrote:Math, I would love to see your VCA supposing the council of 7 are all townsiding.