Adorable probably town, and Theta's vote park there looks very bad.
[b[Titus town with fred scum makign that wagon larger as a safe park.[/b]
Taylor can't safely park there, so Taylor off wagon.
So that gives us fred theta taylor off wagon, probably 1 scum on fred wagon minimum if not two
Yet another reason why I’m confident in Pooky!town. I think all of my initial townreads are correct.
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:33 pm
by Fidget
Do people still think shelly and I are scum together? If so, just shoot shelly that's like a guaranteed scum flip, because she's either the 1 scum out of the 2 of us, or I'm just her partner telling you to shoot her.
..I think that makes sense.
Theta is good though if Adorbs is town.
Spoiler:
Lady Lambdadelta
MUSHSHAGANA
PookyTheMagicalBear
Noraa
Bell
Adorable [assuming Theta scum]
MURDERCAT
Gloria Cleary
Titus(VaultDweller)
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
DGB(Lapsa)
Theta Alpine
shellyc
Fredrick A Campbell(Zdenek)
Frederick + shelly + Theta + 2 of Taylor/UNOwen/Flea/DGB
If there are no townblock surprises this gets pretty easy doesn't it.
the way that went down i would think his buddies will be trying to get someone other then adorable killed
though honestly lambdadelta
you can kill someone else if you want
we can just vote adorable the scroll tomorrow
i just think adorable is nearly guaranteed to be scum at this point
@Theta, how can Adorable be according to you “nearly guaranteed scum” based off of this?
Can you explain the bolded? I thought you sounded pretty townie until this post, because how does it make sense for Fred to want to scroll Adorable but his buddies not? This trajectory on Adorable really doesn’t make sense.
This reads as a possible tmi on Adorable? Do you think Adorable is a Fred scumbuddy or not?
the way that went down i would think his buddies will be trying to get someone other then adorable killed
though honestly lambdadelta
you can kill someone else if you want
we can just vote adorable the scroll tomorrow
i just think adorable is nearly guaranteed to be scum at this point
@Theta, how can Adorable be according to you “nearly guaranteed scum” based off of this?
Can you explain the bolded? I thought you sounded pretty townie until this post, because how does it make sense for Fred to want to scroll Adorable but his buddies not? This trajectory on Adorable really doesn’t make sense.
This reads as a possible tmi on Adorable? Do you think Adorable is a Fred scumbuddy or not?
Iow, this post looks like you don’t think Adorable is a Fred scumbuddy but you still consider her to be “nearly guaranteed to be scum”.
In post 5338, Noraa wrote:Speaking of which, currently there is a consensus that {Pooky, Taylor} has scum? That'd surely be a quicker list to go thru tho I dont believe that has scum. Pooky and Taylor are both town imo and I'd argue with just about anyone about this atm. If we had to go thru that bracket, I would say we kill one only and if they flip red, we're done. If not, ugh idk.
That’s what I’m saying, if Fred - extremely likely imo - flips red, you really can’t put too much stock into that because he tried to push both a you/LLD team and a Tayl0r/Pooky team and try to push the argument that it was likely scum theatre when it was beyond obvious that it wasn’t.
I was arguing that it might be and you don't have any reason to think it is not.
Kill them both in the same scroll cycle cause there probably is scum in that.
Last scum... UNOWEN Noraa or Flea.
so honestly, I think....
theta
Taylor
fred
shelly
....
UNOWEN.
That's my final thought at a solve, but Noraa Flea and Fidget are all in the "realm of concern".
Everything else is paranoia and if I'm very wrong about someone, it will replace a whole subgroup, obviously
Thank you.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:14 am
by Flea The Magician
Love how everyones just sliding on my slot.:3
Also nice WIFOM drop from fred, I think everyone on that list is town and he's just messing with people. Everyone on that list, that I can tell, has at least 2 or 3 people leaning scum on each of them.
Doing my ISO bit what shelly asked for while I have to spoons.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:53 am
by shellyc
how are we doing on this fine day
LLD do you seriously think shelly/UNO is a team.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:54 am
by shellyc
In post 5356, Flea The Magician wrote:Also nice WIFOM drop from fred, I think everyone on that list is town and he's just messing with people. Everyone on that list, that I can tell, has at least 2 or 3 people leaning scum on each of them.
nah its prob not all town. there's something called rule of three, when scum gives three (or other reasonable number) names in a solve there should usually be exactly one scum in them
Theta's trajectory on Adora is weird in a way that it seems self-aware that the whole adora tunnelling business might lead to perfected overconfidence?
Theta's trajectory on Adora is weird in a way that it seems self-aware that the whole adora tunnelling business might lead to perfected overconfidence?
*perceived overconfidence
Noraa feels more well-reasoned in their posting and I think the LLD pass solidifies a Noraa!town world as well so my SR there has been weakened
In post 5338, Noraa wrote:Speaking of which, currently there is a consensus that {Pooky, Taylor} has scum? That'd surely be a quicker list to go thru tho I dont believe that has scum. Pooky and Taylor are both town imo and I'd argue with just about anyone about this atm. If we had to go thru that bracket, I would say we kill one only and if they flip red, we're done. If not, ugh idk.
That’s what I’m saying, if Fred - extremely likely imo - flips red, you really can’t put too much stock into that because he tried to push both a you/LLD team and a Tayl0r/Pooky team and try to push the argument that it was likely scum theatre when it was beyond obvious that it wasn’t.
I was arguing that it might be and you don't have any reason to think it is not.
Sure I do because LLD/Noraa were obviously never buddies and as for Tayl0r/Pooky. They are either TvT or SvT. Pooky is very obviously town here.
Also nice WIFOM drop from fred, I think everyone on that list is town and he's just messing with people. Everyone on that list, that I can tell, has at least 2 or 3 people leaning scum on each of them.
Doing my ISO bit what shelly asked for while I have to spoons.
It’s definitely possible, which is why I was wtf at Noraa wanting to kill in that list, soley based off of that. Scum can either make a combined list, an all town list and I actually read a game on here where scum listed their entire team as either scum lean or scum but if Fred is scum here and based off of how he is handling his scroll completely differently than any of Toog, Vax or LLD, I think highly likely. LLD is almost certainly town here regardless.
In post 5356, Flea The Magician wrote:Also nice WIFOM drop from fred, I think everyone on that list is town and he's just messing with people. Everyone on that list, that I can tell, has at least 2 or 3 people leaning scum on each of them.
nah its prob not all town. there's something called rule of three, when scum gives three (or other reasonable number) names in a solve there should usually be exactly one scum in them
Sometimes but you’re ignoring the context. Fred made this list AFTER he scrolled LLD. That isn’t your typical rule of 3 scenario.
In post 5356, Flea The Magician wrote:Also nice WIFOM drop from fred, I think everyone on that list is town and he's just messing with people. Everyone on that list, that I can tell, has at least 2 or 3 people leaning scum on each of them.
nah its prob not all town. there's something called rule of three, when scum gives three (or other reasonable number) names in a solve there should usually be exactly one scum in them
Sometimes but you’re ignoring the context. Fred made this list AFTER he scrolled LLD. That isn’t your typical rule of 3 scenario.
In any case, LLD is wise to entirely disregarded it as in itself being in any way useful. What seems really obvious to me is that Fred scrolled a slot he clearly townreads and not a single one of his previously stated srs save Adorable are even on it. That’s the part I find most interesting.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:58 am
by Titus
Gloria, just who are you scumreading? I see a lot of townreads coming from you but I worry I am getting pocketed.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:02 am
by Flea The Magician
Fidget - S, Freds tag change didn't look good after Adorbs claimed intent to curse our foxy friendo.
Gloria - T, can't find fault with her. Good points, good contributions.
Adorable - Null/TL - Freds tagging and switching affected the read. Slot seems consistent, lots of reads and information, no analysis. I'd be curious to see a detailed reads list from this slot though.
Titus - SL, only skimmed. ye gods get off the fence. "why vanity wagon?" - next post "vote wagon". o.o Really seems keen on survival...
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:24 am
by Gloria Cleary
In post 5366, Titus wrote:Gloria, just who are you scumreading? I see a lot of townreads coming from you but I worry I am getting pocketed.
I know there’s a lot to read but I think I’ve been pretty clear about this.
If I’m right on Fred flipping scum then I’m going to be focusing on who he left off of his list, because while scum could of course still be in it, that fact remains that he put everyone on it in potential danger. so whomever Fred’s trajectories and reads progression from off that list were suspicious, is probably where most of the scum are.
I think there’s a reason why LLD got the scroll while Mush did not, so that tells me that if Fred is scum than Mush is probably on track, because if Fred is scum, why not scroll Mush who is the most widely consensus tr who is currently having the most influence on the game? Obvious answer: scum!Fred fears Mush’s scroll.
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:49 am
by Noraa
In post 5341, Gloria Cleary wrote:You should pay more attention to play over wifom because nothing I’ve done in this game makes any sense ever if I’m scum here. I’ve lost games because I fell for scum wifom more times than I’d care to admit. It’s called wifom for a reason and it’s smart to not put too much stock into that.
wifom is confusing. I dont even know what it means and I read the whole wiki article. but I get the gist of it. basically wifom = bullshit. Hmm I gotta think some more on this and try to figure out what Fred is trying to make us think vs what he actually thinks. It may yield no results. We'll see.
In post 5341, Gloria Cleary wrote:You should pay more attention to play over wifom because nothing I’ve done in this game makes any sense ever if I’m scum here. I’ve lost games because I fell for scum wifom more times than I’d care to admit. It’s called wifom for a reason and it’s smart to not put too much stock into that.
wifom is confusing. I dont even know what it means and I read the whole wiki article. but I get the gist of it. basically wifom = bullshit. Hmm I gotta think some more on this and try to figure out what Fred is trying to make us think vs what he actually thinks. It may yield no results. We'll see.
Maybe this will help?
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:05 am
by Noraa
Ok how I think about all this Fred stuff is like this:
First off, its basically 99% certain Fred is scum because of that pass to LLD. I doubt he is town and if he is, he is throwing big time.
He hurt Adorable. This means basically nothing because no matter Adorb's alignment, he would've unvoted/hurt someone else. Think about it. If Adorbs was scum, Fred aint gonna kill his scum buddy and this hurt tag was for distancing and protecting Adorbs which if it is case 1, its working and people are TRing Adorbs. Case 2 is that Adorbs is town. If Adorbs is town, she was prime limbait and there is zero possibility scums kill her there. The hurt tag was most likely there to try to make adorbs angry to set her up for tomorrow or something like that.
Then he switches off Adorbs and onto LLD. Theres a lot wrong with the switch in general that confirms Fred's role pm to be red.
Besides all that, LLD is a player that has two SRs as far as anyone is concerned and has been quite absent since long ago. One of those SRs is dead and green(Hoppy boi). The only other is me. At first I was wondering if scum team wanted to pass to an inactive in hopes of getting to choose themselves but that is clearly not the case considering LLD "came back" right after a prod maybe a few hours prior to Fred switching over. While I hear Mush's argument that LLD wouldn't be that stupid and vote me knowing that is exactly what scums want her to do, I do not believe the scum team knew that. LLD's been gone a while and her SR on me basically never dropped. Not even the last time she popped in. I remember I had asked if she SRed me a while back and she was like hell yeah.
This is why I conclude that the goal of this pass was to knock out LLD and me. The just didn't expect that LLD was following along and knew better than to do that, ruining chances of S -> T -> S
In post 5341, Gloria Cleary wrote:You should pay more attention to play over wifom because nothing I’ve done in this game makes any sense ever if I’m scum here. I’ve lost games because I fell for scum wifom more times than I’d care to admit. It’s called wifom for a reason and it’s smart to not put too much stock into that.
wifom is confusing. I dont even know what it means and I read the whole wiki article. but I get the gist of it. basically wifom = bullshit. Hmm I gotta think some more on this and try to figure out what Fred is trying to make us think vs what he actually thinks. It may yield no results. We'll see.
Maybe this will help?
@_@
Noraa's brain just exploded
*sniffies*
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:08 am
by Bell
Wifom is pretty much trying to predict what someone would do.
It’s notoriously difficult to correctly make a prediction but a lot of people actually use Wifom and just don’t call it that or think it’s better than typical wifom because of some reason or another.
For example pretty much every argument for why adorable is town or scum is based on Wifom.
Roughly speaking we’re in mountainous so all we can really do is guess at what scum would do that town wouldn’t. There are some safe bets (scum won’t hand the scroll to scum). But otherwise it’s murky.
Uhh, I’m just gunna lurk and spend more time reading and less time writing.
Slight shifts in reads but nothing exciting.
Shelly’s argument for why they can’t be scum with x is also wifom as are my arguments for why I’m not partners with noraa(who it turns out is likely a town buddy).
