Mafiascum.net

In post 5370, Gloria Cleary wrote:

In post 5369, Noraa wrote:

In post 5341, Gloria Cleary wrote:You should pay more attention to play over wifom because nothing I’ve done in this game makes any sense ever if I’m scum here. I’ve lost games because I fell for scum wifom more times than I’d care to admit. It’s called wifom for a reason and it’s smart to not put too much stock into that.

wifom is confusing. I dont even know what it means and I read the whole wiki article. but I get the gist of it. basically wifom = bullshit. Hmm I gotta think some more on this and try to figure out what Fred is trying to make us think vs what he actually thinks. It may yield no results. We'll see.

[z9TRMQwMNnY


Maybe this will help?

Sorry, ignore that first one, it cut off the ending.

I say we lim the fencesitty spammer from that video. He be sus

In post 5374, Bell wrote:Wifom is pretty much trying to predict what someone would do.
It’s notoriously difficult to correctly make a prediction but a lot of people actually use Wifom and just don’t call it that or think it’s better than typical wifom because of some reason or another.

For example pretty much every argument for why adorable is town or scum is based on Wifom.
Roughly speaking we’re in mountainous so all we can really do is guess at what scum would do that town wouldn’t. There are some safe bets (scum won’t hand the scroll to scum). But otherwise it’s murky.

Uhh, I’m just gunna lurk and spend more time reading and less time writing.
Slight shifts in reads but nothing exciting.

Shelly’s argument for why they can’t be scum with x is also wifom as are my arguments for why I’m not partners with noraa(who it turns out is likely a town buddy).

OH. well. Im a god at wifom then with my precious magic 8 ball by my side.

LMFAO they were both poisoned. Dude worried his ass off over nothing

In post 5366, Titus wrote:Gloria, just who are you scumreading? I see a lot of townreads coming from you but I worry I am getting pocketed.

Having a lot of town reads is a town tell, so I'll put her in my town column.

Fred’s entire ISO is based off of wifom. When he seriously suggested that there’s a world where LLD/Noraa could ever be buddies here, that was obvious and now he comes back not to justify or explain his scum readslist but to double down on his ludicrous scum theatre theory. Like what does that tell you?

And @Noraa, that is literally where the term “wifom” originated from and Bell is correct, TPB is required viewing,

In post 5380, Gloria Cleary wrote:TPB

"Isis, why were my thoughts and actions being written down in real-time into a flavour post?"

Isis raised an eyebrow. Hectic couldn't see this over the phone, but he could just tell from her aura.

"zoraster wasn't supposed to release that feature until next month. Well, anyway, it's a new feature to help our mods out. Do you like it?"

"No, I hate it. I don't want to be in another one ever again."

"Well, about that..." Isis replied.

Hectic's eyes widened. "Am I in one right now?"

He waved his arms in front of him, as if to grapple the invisible force at work that was writing this flavour post.

"Please, I didn't sign up for this. Make it stop."

Hectic's cries of anguish were met with the deafening sound of silence.

Theta is a decent shot in the Adorable town world, would expect scum to find a cozy tunnel to sit in and that matches how she has been playing for a while. I think she is town though, the "town tell that wasn't a town tell but AHA! I knew it wasn't a town tell" situation was a slight town tell for me. I can easily imagine a town player making that move and then patiently waiting until it gets brought up to reveal that Ta-da! they knew all along. It was a bit too awkward for scum to bother with IMO.

In post 4479, shellyc wrote: HURT: Fred

happy?
i think we can force taylor to get rid of fred slot if she's town, and scum!Taylor will be much more dangerous to town vs. scum!fred

In post 5322, shellyc wrote:good afternoon my fellows

Taylor scum with Fred still
shelly/Taylor is clearly not a team and really forced

firstly, I didn't derail the wagon at all, and it has been stated that I basically tried to drive the wagon throughout the day. If I wanted to derail I'd have made a case and asked my TRs to sheep me. I tried to PRESSURE, to shake things up.

secondly, why would I derail scum!fred (who looks worse) into scum!Taylor (who looks better than Fred)

Shelly is rewriting history right in front of our eyes. How could Taylor be forced to get rid of Fred if she does not receive the scroll first?

In post 5381, Noraa wrote:

In post 5380, Gloria Cleary wrote:TPB

The Princess Bride - the name of the movie.

In post 5384, UNOwen wrote:Theta is a decent shot in the Adorable town world, would expect scum to find a cozy tunnel to sit in and that matches how she has been playing for a while. I think she is town though, the "town tell that wasn't a town tell but AHA! I knew it wasn't a town tell" situation was a slight town tell for me. I can easily imagine a town player making that move and then patiently waiting until it gets brought up to reveal that Ta-da! they knew all along. It was a bit too awkward for scum to bother with IMO.

I strongly tr her initially and of course Isis did and LLD did also have a post where she mentioned her as her strongest sr after Noraa.

So, if scum was aware of that read or not, Idk but I think Mush must have some correct reads or else Fred would have scrolled her not LLD.

The good thing is that LLD put it into HURT tags not a vote, so perhaps she was waiting for Theta’s reaction? I expect her to still insist it’s Adorable, irrespective of her alignment. In terms of info, her flip is only useful if red and then only about Adorable but if she’s town, it tells us nothing about Adorable.

Did Fred/Zdeneck even have any interactions with Theta?

@Tayl0r, what’s your current read on Theta?

In post 5387, Gloria Cleary wrote: The good thing is that LLD put it into HURT tags not a vote, so perhaps she was waiting for Theta’s reaction? I expect her to still insist it’s Adorable, irrespective of her alignment. In terms of info, her flip is only useful if red and then only about Adorable but if she’s town, it tells us nothing about Adorable.

Did Fred/Zdeneck even have any interactions with Theta?

Nope, no interactions. Pretty much no interactions this phase at all, which is part of the reason my Theta read is so low confidence. Agreed that a green Theta flip would mean nothing for Adorable's alignment.

Fred did not interact with Theta, or if there was interaction it was so minimal it was basically meaningless. I did check. This isn't too impressive: Fred avoided the vast majority of the player list like the plague, even when some of them were trying to get his attention.

Still think Theta smells like scum. But I think scum has a higher chance of living in Shelly/Tayl0r/Fidget and want to crush those slots in just about that order first. The last one I don't even have hints on, but those three can go down in order until we hit green.

Way I see it:
Fidget's the only slot implicated by red Fred where we don't get a hint of where to look next if we hit green. So let them be last.
Shelly is so highly scummy with red Fred that this isn't worth considering too highly, but who's been pushing Shelly hardest all game long, just in case? Off the top of my head, it would appear to be UNOwen. (However, I have Thoughts about UNOwen and I want to hold them for later.)
Tayl0r green implicates Pooky pretty well, I can't see any world where that matchup is TvT.

"Hit the scummiest" implies Shelly first.
Tayl0r gives us good solid direction if green, so Tayl0r second is a good move.
Fidget's our wildcard, but still looks a bit worse off of red Fred, in part due to ugly associatives with Shelly -- Shelly and Fidget have been mostly living on each other's vanity wagons all game long, with rare jumps off. Also, with Fidget lolhammering Fred (to be fair, I didn't realize where the votecount was myself, I'll give this a pass) after restraining herself on Toog and otherwise staying on a momentum-free Shelly wagon, there's a slight implication of inherent knowledge being abused to catch towncred.

Theta /looks scummy/ but has no meaningful associatives, which I feel are way stronger for identifying scum. So I'd save Theta for later.

In post 952, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:

In post 949, Theta Alpine wrote:

In post 944, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:

In post 940, Theta Alpine wrote:

In post 928, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Give me shit to work with so if you DO flip town, it's information for us.

then give noraa the chance to do it by taking the pressure off of her and starting a wagon on someone else

if noraa is town this gives her the chance to contribute without feeling pressured to defend herself
if noraa is scum she is going to die today regardless

and it gives us the chance to get more interactions with a wagon on someone who is not already doomed

This is an awful idea.

No one else we wagon is gonna feel the slightest bit of pressure. Noraa has a space to talk about her reads now. Why does Noraa need to feel as if she can live to do that?

what do you mean they are not going to feel the pressure
when i say noraa is going to die today i mean she is going to be passed the scroll today regardless of if that is because she was voted it or not
anyone who is voted should absolutely feel pressured because we are going to vote with the intent of passing the scroll to them with that vote

p-edit
also i do not think that town noraa passes the scroll to someone useful in the situation where she is voted the scroll
the highest scum read will almost certainly get passed the scroll
we do not have to vote them because they are doomed
so it is better to vote someone else

Tell you what.

The only other person I'm willing to wagon today is you.

Would you prefer this?

Would scum!Fred have been aware of this, when he gave LLD the scroll?

Good point. He was rereading the thread from front to back and he did get to the low thousands IIRC. I think that's very possible.

He'd have a scum PT so yeah

So, Theta for LHF? Suits me fine.

I'm still intent on a Shelly->Tayl0r->Fidget elimination order, determine next steps off of flips. If all three come up red we have a VERY good shot of winning by raw POE and we can just curse our way through the playerlist. If one comes up green, we stop and reassess at that stage. Best case here is LLD hitting one of those three (preferably Tayl0r or Shelly) then we can hit the other two next day. If we hit S->T->S we are, if my math is right, on track to a win again next day, so we can afford one gamble on a high doubt slot with red associatives (Fidget) that day. I don't feel like Shelly or Tayl0r are gambles.

But if LLD hits in the top of that group and we somehow go S->T->T it stops us from going down a blind alley at a critical stage. If LLD eliminates outside of those 3 we're forced to figure out if it affects the associatives on the board before we hit them, and I have an unfortunate suspicion that the answer is "not by much" regardless of flip or LLD's target if she scroll-passes outside of there. Given we are pretty much coalescing around Shelly being highly scummy and most people are sort of like "yeah seems reasonable" on Tayl0r and Fidget as targets, that's crucial info to get out of the way with the coming guaranteed flip so scum can't mindgame us into reconsidering mid-scrollpass during the next day.

FTR, if anyone has doubts that scum could fake us out day 2, recall how hard we bought Fred green before the flip spoiling LLD pass. If Fred hadn't spoiled the flip that way we would have ditched all these fine vintage associatives and almost certainly hit S->T->T -- which keeps us in the running but doesn't put us back on a winning track.

Now think: we hit some rando and go S->T->T today. We hit shelly scum next dayphase, shelly plays it off like we hit town, puts a hurt down on Tayl0r, we fall for it and let her pick some target from the LHF list. We go S->T->T and if Fidget is town, we are nowhere near being on track for the win as we close on the endgame.

Mindgames next dayphase are a serious concern, hence why I want LLD to pass in that group today.

If Theta ever flips red, I will be sincerely concerned about my read on mush.

In post 5391, Gloria Cleary wrote:Would scum!Fred have been aware of this, when he gave LLD the scroll?

Honestly, probs. I dont remember LLD ever saying this but I feel like the scums prolly do.

In post 5396, Noraa wrote:If Theta ever flips red, I will be sincerely concerned about my read on mush.

Why?

In post 5390, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Theta /looks scummy/ but has no meaningful associatives, which I feel are way stronger for identifying scum. So I'd save Theta for later.

and this is why i win my scum games

i would expect the list fred made to have one buddy on it
but who even knows


figure out who fred did not interact with

then look at those people and see which ones did not interact with each other
the strategy i mentioned that heavily tilts the game in scums favor is forming minimal associatives with other buddies

p-edit
i actually flip green here
and i am also perfectly fine with flipping here instead of later in the game where it gives scum the game
i kind of doubt lambdadelta will be back soon enough to change her vote
but i guess we will see