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Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:39 am
by Lukewarm
It is taking everything in me to not explain all over again why voting her out directly is strictly worse then doing it via my plan >.<
But I am trying to fight the urge, because it is a futile battle. Convincing you does nothing. I think I have the votes needed to do the plan, but it never works unless the dragons agree
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:40 am
by Spiffeh
I'm leaning towards unwnd being the other scum
His play today is unlike how I would expect him to handle it as Town. There's a ton of woe is me which I get because we've all acknowledged we're in a shit position. But I'd expect as Town he would be like Lukewarm and think up every possible scenario in getting out of this and he's just...not even trying? He continues to emphasize how mad he is about the setup/mechanics situation to the point where I feel it's been overdone. He was also the vote to put Pooky at L-1 which is something to keep in mind, I don't remember it looking bad at the time but I definitely wanna take a second look at that progression based on how I feel about him now.
I also just don't buy his scum read on Annie Edison. Earlier in the Day I pointed out how he was continuously choosing to overlook or ignore my AA9 theory and he had a fairly visceral reaction to my saying that. As the day's progressed he continues to conveniently keep her out of mind (other than a short-lived vote on her without explanation) and I understand the danger of pre-flipped associatives but I can't really wrap my head around why he's holding her at arm's length like this when she seems to be a consensus scum read?
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:41 am
by Spiffeh
Oh and the whole "I'm flipping Town"/"If I were scum I wouldn't do X" rhetoric he's adopted today whenever anyone dares to question him rubs me the wrong way too
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:44 am
by Dunnstral
There is no downside to placing snarky at e-1 and asking aa9 to hammer if that is who we've decided on. This is insurance in case we're wrong.
Pivoting to vote them out directly probably won't take a long time
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:47 am
by Spiffeh
If AA9 agrees to hammering Snarky I am all for it
As long as Snarky gives like a final reads list or some shit and don't leave us hanging cuz I'll miss them
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:22 am
by Spiffeh
Caught up for the most part, redoing my original assassin list to reflect my current reads, only changes are Lukewarm to Town and unwnd to Scum
1. Annie Edison (notscience/The Bulge) - Town
2. ArcAngel9 - Scum
3. Dunnstral - Town
4. Here There Be Dragons (cephrir/Save the Dragons) - Scum
5. Lady Lambdadelta - Town
6. Lukewarm - Town
7. ManateeGal - Town
8. Medea the Alien (cabd/penguin_alien) -Town
10. unwnd Sleez - Scum
11. Snarky fishes (Bell/fferyllt) - Town
12. Spiffeh -Town
CephTD is listed as Scum because I would probably be scum reading their play if not for their claim. At this point my solve is just {AA9, unwnd} and that's not it then idfk
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:27 am
by Annie Edison
Ill post an updated list once snarky does theirs
but Im working on homework atm
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:22 am
by Snarky Fishes
Bell and I didn't get a chance to confab this morning.
His unwnd read has softened, but I'm not sure how much.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:44 am
by Annie Edison
At a glance its coming down to unwnd/AA9, so let me know whenever you guys want to update it.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:58 am
by ArcAngel9
I dont mind hammering snarky to prove myself town but what snarky says is true.. we are loosing two townies..
i am not saying no but i am telling you to calculate.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:08 am
by Snarky Fishes
In post 5409, ArcAngel9 wrote:I dont mind hammering snarky to prove myself town but what snarky says is true.. we are loosing two townies..
i am not saying no but i am telling you to calculate.
6 is the number of demons that we've all claimed. If a scum has lied about being a demon, then we're at 7 now.
These are the options:
1. Elim us and your hammer kills you, too: Scum lose one of their corruptions before they can make an extra demon tonight Scum add 1 demon to the count tomorrow. If we're at 6 demons today, we're at 8 demons tomorrow.
2. Elim you: Scum add 2 demons to the count tomorrow. If we're at 6 demons today, then we're at 7 demons tomorrow. If we're at 7 demons today then scum have 9 demons tomorrow and they win via their alternate wincon.
There are worse things than losing two townies today. :/
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:11 am
by Snarky Fishes
In post 5410, Snarky Fishes wrote: In post 5409, ArcAngel9 wrote:I dont mind hammering snarky to prove myself town but what snarky says is true.. we are loosing two townies..
i am not saying no but i am telling you to calculate.
6 is the number of demons that we've all claimed. If a scum has lied about being a demon, then we're at 7 now.
These are the options:
1. Elim us and your hammer kills you, too: Scum lose one of their corruptions before they can make an extra demon tonight Scum add 1 demon to the count tomorrow. If we're at 6 demons today, we're at
8
7
demons tomorrow.
If we're at 7 demons today, then we're at 8 demons tomorrow.
2. Elim you: Scum add 2 demons to the count tomorrow. If we're at 6 demons today, then we're at
7
8
demons tomorrow. If we're at 7 demons today then scum have 9 demons tomorrow and they win via their alternate wincon.
There are worse things than losing two townies today. :/
Fucked that up. :/
There's not enough coffee in the world today.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:17 am
by Snarky Fishes
Question to all
Medea brought up the fact that unwnd could have proved his claim by adding shards to someone who's already been demonized. And that's true.
Is it more helpful to town for unwnd to prove his claim that way tonight? Or for him to shard the dragons and have a desharder on Night 5?
Neither AA9 getting supersaint-killed nor unwnd sharding the dragons is optimal IMO, but since the dragons refuse to hammer us, the optimal day results aren't on the table.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:20 am
by ManateeGal
i think it'd be quite silly at this point to get scum closer to their wincon considering we dont know what tricks they have up their sleeves. if we want to confirm unwnd as town he should target a player that already has shards
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:23 am
by Medea the Alien
In post 5413, ManateeGal wrote:i think it'd be quite silly at this point to get scum closer to their wincon considering we dont know what tricks they have up their sleeves. if we want to confirm unwnd as town he should target a player that already has shards
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:26 am
by ManateeGal
i'd lean towards asking unwnd to use both shards on an already demonized player to make sure hes not scum using his factional ability to hide
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:26 am
by Lukewarm
I not a big fan of the plan of having unwnd target the demons. I am not looking at the numbers right this second, but I ran them before and I don't think it ever wins the race against the scum team.
I need to look at them again when I have a pc to see if it even buys us a miselim
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:27 am
by Lukewarm
That was supposed to be "target the dragons"
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:27 am
by Lukewarm
In post 5416, Lukewarm wrote:I not a big fan of the plan of having unwnd target the
dragons
. am not looking at the numbers right this second, but I ran them before and I don't think it ever wins the race against the scum team.
I need to look at them again when I have a pc to see if it even buys us a miselim
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:30 am
by Here There Be Dragons
assuming 6 demons now, i think that if we get the corrupter, sharding us makes sense, and if we don't, it doesn't
but if scum are lying and there's an extra demon floating around it's definitely bad
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:37 am
by Snarky Fishes
My scumreads are: unwnd, AA9, and *sucks air* Rhea.
My thoughts on Rhea are that her ability is at least as useful to scum as to town, before mass shard claim. If anyone can use that claim to good effect in terms of "conftowning", it's Rhea's system. And Medea, but we're not playing a game where Medea claimed demon-finder.
Beyond that, I mostly haven't liked her reads.
These are all soft reads and I don't have confidence that I've solved the game AT ALL.
I imagine that Bell still thinks a world where 2 of Rhea, Dunn, and Medea are scum is possible, but I have near-unshakeable townreads on 2 of those 3.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:41 am
by Snarky Fishes
I'm also not entirely comfortable with the dragons, but if I were in their shoes I dunno how I'd feel. The ability sitting out of town's reach makes me want to quote Princess Leia.
If town, scum aren't going to shard them before it puts them over the top in # of demons, so they're essentially vanilla forever, with a possibility they have a backup.
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:44 am
by Medea the Alien
In post 5420, Snarky Fishes wrote:My thoughts on Rhea are that her ability is at least as useful to scum as to town, before mass shard claim. If anyone can use that claim to good effect in terms of "conftowning", it's Rhea's system. And Medea, but we're not playing a game where Medea claimed demon-finder.
:/ My problem with this angle is dunn confirmed that it's "demonphobic" as a modifier. Does scum get that weak of a role?
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:48 am
by Here There Be Dragons
do we actually know what demonphobic means for a fact?
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:57 am
by Lady Lambdadelta
Hi, it's Rhea. No patience for doing my thing today, too much trauma.
I'd like to remind people that I am literally confirmed town, because it explicitly needed to be Dunn+Medea yesterday, and now it explicitly needs to be Dunn+Me today. That means Dunn is impossible to be scum, which means Medea and I are impossible to be scum because of exclusion rule.
Which means questions about my role, questions about my reads and scumreading me is exclusively theatre.
My scum reads are Annie Fishes and Unwnd. ArcAngel looks too town to be scum.
I think it's Annie+Fishes or Annie+Unwnd. I want to kill Annie today.