Mafiascum.net

In post 5423, Transcend wrote:I think it's very dumb and risky to make solid inferences like that.

So tell me what you think.

T thought those 2 were town regardless of any cop results which is why I'd say they were bad checks

I think that I'm not going to make any solid conclusions based on his softs.

ur dumb

Guess I'll wait for this mass claim thing to be decided but it's probably a good idea

Dunnstral, you're gonna need to actually explicitly claim full vig. The bullshit isn't doing you any good anymore.

Here's the plan. We direct the vig and the jailkeeper. They will of course need to be on separate people. The doctor protects Almost50, because the jailkeep is extremely valuable with only one mafia member remaining.

Every night that someone other than Dunnstral's target dies, we get a clear based on who A50 roleblocked, assuming there's only one mafia left, which I think is somewhat safe - I don't think the amount of town power claimed justifies a 5-man scumteam with at least 3 power roles in a 19-player game.

There's two versions of this plan: with or without massclaim. If we massclaim the upside is obviously more clarity; the downside is that we'll out the doctor, which means that we'll essentially have two guaranteed nights of this plan occurring, as mafia will have to kill the doctor and then varsoon. Massclaiming is better.

But the important thing is that we play this game very rigorously at this point. We have tons of town power still alive (even if A50 is scum, he'll be severely limited in his night actions) and so many mislynches. I really just want to play it safe since we have that option and eliminate even the smallest chance of letting this win slip away.

I'm out of shots lol, I won't be shooting at anyone

It's amazing that I was able to claim 1-shot then 2-shot then 3-shot though and not get roleblocked during that time

Why would a50 claim his jailkeep?

Dunnstral please just stop lying and say you're a full-shot vig if you are there is absolutely no reason to lie when the win is basically locked down

And a50 claims his jailkeep because i'm assuming you have more shots left and i can't believe you even if you say that you don't, so we need to ensure that he jailkeeps someone other than your target. In theory you can claim your target and he can not since we have a doctor.

In that scenario there would be no reason for him to claim his jailkeep, if I'm claiming my vig shot

Because then his jailkeep is essentially useless

how is it useless? I'm assuming there's only one mafia left so the mafia won't have any option of sending someone else to do the kill.

I think there's a good chance there's two mafia left though

The setup from a somewhat recent 19-player large normal (2015, NY 189):

Mason x 3, 2-shot vig, gunsmith, flower vendor (fruit vendor with a different name)
vs
3x goon, 1x doctor

with the rest as vanilla townies
this scumteam has more power and this town has a bit more power so i think this is a pretty good point of comparison.

Have we agreed to massclaiming btw?

PEDIT: the fuck is a fruit vendor.

a fruit vendor sends someone fruit every night and that person is informed that they received fruit. So essentially they can confirm their existence in the game.

Next most recent similarly sized singleball game I could find is NY183. 18 players, 3 mafia + traitor vs 14 town.

Mafia had traitor + encryptor + roleblocker + 2-shot rolecop

town had tracker + doctor + 2-shot friendly neighbor + a pretty strong joat (doc/vig/cop)

Like I honestly cannot imagine a 5:14 game being balanced without really ridiculous amounts of town power. I guess I could imagine something like 4+traitor:14 being balanced but then the jailkeeper being strong thing is still relevant because normal traitors on mafiascum can't be converted to full mafia.

And those ridiculous amounts of town power aren't what we have. We have a lot but not enough to justify an entire extra mafia member with the mafia already having at least 3 PRs.

Right I thought 5 mafia would have been normal, looks like 4 would make more sense here

Assuming there is a town nurse and that every other townie is a VT and that the last scum is a goon (and assuming that dunnstral is just being obtuse), the setup would be:

Town: Jailkeeper, Vig, Doctor, Nurse, Backup nurse, 2-shot Motion Detector, Odd-night Cop, 2x Macho townie, 6x VT
vs
Jailkeeper, 2-shot commuter, Neapolitan, Goon

If there's a significant additional amount of power unclaimed I might be willing to believe that it's 5:14.

So I guess we should massclaim.

Maybe the last mafia would have a role but nothing active so the mafia jailkeeper would have someone to protect? Like backup nurse or something

Just mass so we can figure this out. I guess popcorn isn't required since there's only 4 people.

Hey
Want me to claim?