Skygazer is very likely town
TehBrawlGuy is somewhatish town
Krazy doesn't appear town or scum
Myloninja has no real equity either way, certain slots increase his scum equity via flipping scum, though
JarJarDrinks, Wavemode, Vaxkiller, and Tchill all look really bad in this scenario.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:44 am
by Ankamius
(basically the type of gamestate implied by the vast majority of the wagons throughout the game being town imply those four slots are more likely scum than not, with Mylo either being an extra or replacing one)
I think I'd have to plug in those specific scumreads in order to see if it makes sense macro-wise, but I think this is a solve I'm comfortable running with for today.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:45 am
by Ankamius
I'm not sure what to make of the Gamma wagon in this scenario though, I'd have to double check how it started and why those specific slots are there first.
Hopkirk still being alive and scum not protective-hunting makes sense with this scumteam thanks to this post.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:53 am
by Ankamius
The kills would be mostly geared towards getting rid of non-mislynchable targets in this scenario since Flavor Leaf/Ausuka/Hopkirk all seem to have near consensus reads or similar.
That could be indicative by itself though, conftown all having consensus incorrect reads = consensus is probably supported by scum.
So it still kind of works? I don't see much reason why the kills would have worked out the way they did if town were killed mostly for reads.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:54 am
by Ankamius
eh
JarJar/Wavemode/Tchill/Vax isn't a full completed solve, but it makes enough sense with how things have gone and how things are going this game that I would expect probably 2 scum in there, maybe 3.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:55 am
by Gamma Emerald
In post 5307, JarJarDrinks wrote:That VCA on Osuka seriously point to krazy or tex being scum. At one point the wagon was:
It's very unlikely a town wagon gets that large w/o some scum on it. I know I'm town and Dunn/Almost/Performer/PP/Hopkirk are all town.
I think Tex/Krazy is prob a good place to lynch from
er what
krazy wasn't in the game then, I get the intent but it's confusing
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:57 am
by Ankamius
5307 is erroneous
There's no huge wagon push elsewhere and the wagon gets jumpstarted by Wavemode's slot as soon as it starts to disintegrate. It's entirely possible it WAS all town and scum wanted it to get pushed through without scum intervention.
In post 5315, Golden Robster wrote:strongest scumread right now is TBG followed by SS and then creature/gamma
m'm working with you until we get sajj and TBG scum lynched. Then I'm winning with you.
what are you trying to say here?
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:02 am
by Skygazer
To whoever asked me about gamma, I'm not the biggest fan of their wagon at the moment.
I think it's interesting that wave put in all of this effort saying hopkirk was probably left alive due to bad reads and somehow ended up voting someone with hopkirk that has been in hopkirk's lynch pool since yesterday.
If I were to go full conspiracy then I'd say maybe hopkirk was left alive because he's townreading wave?
VOTE: wave
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:03 am
by Ankamius
Hopkirk's reads seem to be mostly consensus, Sky. That probably isn't too relevant.
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:06 am
by Gamma Emerald
In post 5332, Krazy wrote:Because TBG had an out. He does not get lynched the next day just because he wasn't on the wagon that lynches scum. Gamma was not a recent replace-in and doesn't have as many excuses. Circumstance matters.
TBG put Wheme at L-1 and asked for intent to hammer to generate a claim. It is
possible
he does this as scum, but I do not see it as
probable
.
Erm I did have the out of consistently being against it? Why do I just turn on him like that?
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:12 am
by Gamma Emerald
In post 5379, wavemode wrote:Krazy plays off the hammer as accidental but I believe he knew full well what he was doing:
no...? He called it shitty, not accidental
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:14 am
by JarJarDrinks
Well we can ask
@Krazy. Was the hammer accidental ?
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:15 am
by JarJarDrinks
In post 5430, Ankamius wrote:Skygazer is very likely town
TehBrawlGuy is somewhatish town
Krazy doesn't appear town or scum
Myloninja has no real equity either way, certain slots increase his scum equity via flipping scum, though
JarJarDrinks, Wavemode, Vaxkiller, and Tchill all look really bad in this scenario.
In what scenario?
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:16 am
by wavemode
In post 5439, Skygazer wrote:I think it's interesting that wave put in all of this effort saying hopkirk was probably left alive due to bad reads
when did I say that? i think the only suggestion i made regarding hopkirk is that scum!mylo might not have wanted to kill someone who made a long case against him right at the end of the day because it might point to him. but that was just one theory. I was more focused on them choosing PenguinPower of all people
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:17 am
by Gamma Emerald
In post 5386, Krazy wrote:-He recognized PP had stalled and Wheme was probably the lynch for the day, so he bussed to active lurk for a few more game days while probably not getting lynched
This is like the only thing I take issue with in the post, the meta seems reasonable. Why do you say I'm trying to active lurk? While that ends up happening sometimes as scum when I get uncomfortable (and I can provide meta for this as well, older but w/e), it definitely didn't happen here. So please reconcile your argument with reality?
In post 5430, Ankamius wrote:Skygazer is very likely town
TehBrawlGuy is somewhatish town
Krazy doesn't appear town or scum
Myloninja has no real equity either way, certain slots increase his scum equity via flipping scum, though
JarJarDrinks, Wavemode, Vaxkiller, and Tchill all look really bad in this scenario.