Mafiascum.net

Silly idea that I had that I might run in the micro queue:



3 mafia goons
6 town super-saints
nightless (mafia win if number of goons ≥ number of supersaints).

Program I made gave it a town EV of 0.45238.

People are going to be very reluctant to hammer in that setup. Especially scum. (Although this may make the setup more townsided. It's probably breakable by repeatedly forcing the second-scummiest player to hammer the scummiest.)

I made the assumption that the town would play that way in my EV calculation.

This worked during Marathon Week:

Flay the Town

• 2 Vengeful Goons (D1 only)
  
• 5 Townies

- Nightless
- Scum do get a Daytalk QT to use at their own risk, but cannot discuss postlynch who to Venge.

Not exactly sure the Daytalk is necessary, but I don't think it hurts in a Nightless game.

Not sure what to do about No Lynch in a non-marathon game. In the marathon I lowered the lynch threshold by 1 (if it wasn't LyLo) and extended deadline.

I'd say let the mafia decide it if it comes to a tie, otherwise plurality?

Yeah, I think for a normal-speed game Plurality Lynch should suffice to get people off their asses. I'm not sure the game is big enough to take a Mafia-wins-ties rule.

Also, scumchat thought it might be Mafia-sided and need a WEAK power role.

Assuming scum are neither more nor less likely to bus a partner than random voting would, and assuming town and scum otherwise vote randomly unless there is an optimal play, the odds look something like;

2/7 D1 Scumlynch
- 1/5 D2 Town Win
- 4/5 D2 Mislynch
-- 1/4 D3 Town Win
-- 3/4 D3 Mislynch
--- 1/2 D3 Town Win (see below)
--- 1/2 Scum Win (as optimal play would be for scum quickhammer as soon as 1 town person votes wrongly, of which there is a 50% chance assuming random vote by town)
5/7 D1 Mislynch
- (from here on in becomes mountainous nightless with 2 scum and 4 town, which is 1/3 overall for Town Win and 2/3 for Scum Win)

Overall EV is 56.195% to scum, 43.805% town. Given scum are less likely to vote for each other than entirely random, it's probably actually slightly under 40%, so a weak power role is probably necessary.

Would Named Townie be enough town power? (I'm guessing yes.)

↑ callforjudgement wrote:Would Named Townie be enough town power? (I'm guessing yes.)

I'd agree with this.

How would named townie change the %'s? <--- dumb. Anything else would be too strong, so named townie is the only option (And at least can be cc'd)

43% doesn't seem (I'm not sure that scum are less likely to vote each other than random in the current meta btw )

@Faraday: Named Townie can save themselves from a lynch by claiming, it's an open. Scum who claim it will get counterclaimed because its only purpose is to counterclaim scum who claim it. Thus, it improves town win rates via giving them an extra chance if they try to lynch a particular townie.

(It's basically a slightly less strong Innocent Child, because scum can counterclaim a townie claiming it as a gambit if they think it benefits them.)

Um, no. I get that. I meant is it possible to work out roughly how big a % change it would have? (Actually worded that poorly in my initial post but etc)

↑ Faraday wrote:Um, no. I get that. I meant is it possible to work out roughly how big a % change it would have? (Actually worded that poorly in my initial post but etc)

Not quite. If we want to do that, we have to assume some static % for scum counterclaiming the claimed townie.

You can just work it out for 0% and 100% counterclaim rate (with the town unaware of this in both cases), in order to get an idea of what the optimal tactics for scum would be and the resulting EV. (I'm a bit too tired to do it myself right now.)

Thanks for working the math on this, guys. I agree that Earl is about the only reasonable role to throw in there, or something equivalent like a 1-shot Doc.

Actually, I'm completely wrong, sorry. Consider the case such that the Named Town always claims D1. If scum don't counter-claim, and the Named Villager is cleared, the probability of winning is:

2/6 D1 Scumlynch (from here, the game proceeds as normal as correct play for a Vengeful Scum is always to Venge the Named Town)
- 1/5 D2 Town Win
- 4/5 D2 Mislynch
-- 1/4 D3 Town Win
-- 3/4 D3 Mislynch
--- 1/2 D4 Town Win (see below)
--- 1/2 D4 Scum Win (as optimal play would be for scum quickhammer as soon as 1 town person votes wrongly, of which there is a 50% chance assuming random vote by town)
4/6 D1 Mislynch
- 2/5 D2 Scumlynch
-- 1/4 D3 Town Win
-- 3/4 D3 Mislynch
--- 1/3 D4 Town Win
--- 2/3 D4 Mislynch
---- 1/2 D5 Town Win
---- 1/2 D5 Scum Win
- 3/5 D2 Mislynch
-- 2/4 D3 Scumlynch
--- 1/3 D4 Town Win
--- 2/3 D4 Mislynch
---- 1/2 D5 Town Win
---- 1/2 D5 Scum Win
-- 2/4 D3 Scum Win

That gives town a 56.67% EV if there's a D1 Named Claim with no counterclaim; EV shouldn't ever pass above 50% in favour of town. It gets even worse if scum counterclaim, then the game looks like this;

1/2 D1 Earl Lynch
- 1/1 D2 Scum Lynch
--- (the game now becomes 4:1 mountainous nightless, for which town has a 60% EV)
1/2 D1 Scum Lynch
- (the game now becomes 4:1 mountainous nightless, for which town has a 60% EV).

Overall, town will always have a 60% winrate if Named Villager claims D1 and scum counter claims, 56.67% chance of Named Villager claims D1 and scum doesn't counter claim.

Even the introduction of a Named Town breaks the setup. It works better without a town power role - probably slightly scum-sided and a little bit of an uphill battle for town, but to introduce a power role makes it strongly town-sided. I was just guesstimating earlier without actually thinking about it.

What about a one-shot cop?

One shot cop is even more powerful then a named townie since it is a named townie + the power. I'm not sure what role is weaker then a named townie.

↑ Mehdi2277 wrote:One shot cop is even more powerful then a named townie since it is a named townie + the power. I'm not sure what role is weaker then a named townie.

A compulsive hammerer?
A... compulsive governor?

Ugh.
I'm not sure anything's really 'weaker' except roles that are stupid for this setup, like Jester/Miller.

Give it a trial run or 2 and see how it works? I don't think ~43% is that bad. At the very least it looks kind of fun.

It got one trial as a Marathon. I think it was fun enough to try again.

40 percent town chances for normal vengeful works I think.

↑ Mr. Flay wrote: I'm not sure anything's really 'weaker' except roles that are stupid for this setup, like Jester/Miller.

Miller

Ooh!

Make the named townie voteless?

(no wait that's probably a terrible idea)