Mini 766 - Soulshift Mafia (GAME OVER!)


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 10:03 am

Post by PhilyEc »

Xylthixlm wrote:Aha!

qwints is making this unnecessarily complicated.

Start by assuming that Mafiaplayer and PhilyEc are confirmed town. (If either one isn't town, we lose under this plan. But I'm pretty confident on PhilyEc here.)

Here's the plan:
We lynch someone other than me, PhilyEc, or Mafiaplayer.
The RBs target someone not in that group (anyone will do).
I target someone not in that group (anyone will do).

Come day, there's 2 possibilities: there was a kill, or there wasn't a kill.
If there was a kill, the RBs' target is confirmed town. We now have three confirmed town (two surviving from today, plus the RBs' target) in 5 players. Lynch the remaining two players, town wins.
If there wasn't a kill, we don't learn anything.... but all of our confirmed players are still alive, so we have 3 confirmed in 6 players. We lynch and have the RBs target someone again. If there's a kill we go to 3 confirmed in 4 players; if there's no kill we go to 3 confirmed in 5 players. Either way is a town win.

Note that my result is totally unnecessary for the above plan to work. I can accidentally target the same player as the RBs no problem.

So, the key here is the assumption that MafiaSSK wouldn't recruit Mafiaplayer. Shall we bet the game on it?
You think RBT has a power role? What makes you think this? (I think I'm missing something here)
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 10:13 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

RB = roleblocker
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 10:14 am

Post by PhilyEc »

Xylthixlm wrote:RB = roleblocker
All this while I thought you were talking about RiceBallTail...

Okay, I'm gnna go read that thing again <_<
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 10:31 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

I'll put the plan in really simple terms so nobody gets confused. Five-year-old advisor, etc. This plan assumes that PhilyEc, Mafiaplayer, and me are all town, so we shouldn't actually run it until we're convinced of that.

Start

Day 4 (today; 7 alive, 4 unconfirmed): Lynch one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Night 4 (tonight; 6 alive, 3 unconfirmed): PhilyEc and Mafiaplayer, the mason-roleblockers, block one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Day 5: Depends on if there was a kill night 4.

If there was a kill night 4

Day 5 (5 alive, 2 unconfirmed): PhilyEc and Mafiaplayer claim their target. Lynch one of whoever out of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium was
not
the mason-roleblocker target night 4.
Night 5 (4 alive, 1 unconfirmed): Doesn't matter.
Day 6 (3 alive, 1 unconfirmed): Lynch the last person out of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium who was not the mason-roleblocker target night 4. Game over, town wins.

If there was no kill night 4

Day 5 (6 alive, 3 unconfirmed): Lynch one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Night 5 (5 alive, 2 unconfirmed): PhilyEc and Mafiaplayer, the mason-roleblockers, block one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Day 6: Depends on if there was a kill night 5.

If there was a kill night 5 but not night 4

Day 6 (4 alive, 1 unconfirmed): PhilyEc and Mafiaplayer claim their target. Lynch whoever out of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium was
not
the mason-roleblocker target night 5. Game over, town wins.

IF there was no kill night 5

Day 6 (5 alive, 2 unconfirmed): Lynch one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Night 7 (4 alive, 1 unconfirmed): Doesn't matter.
Day 7 (3 alive, 1 unconfirmed): Lynch the last one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium. Game over, town wins.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:39 am

Post by PhilyEc »

Basically, after this lynch, assuming we dont pick the same people at night, theres a 66% chance we'll find scum that night if he/she makes a move.

I think there won't be a kill tonight to be honest, far too risky.
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:43 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

PhilyEc... perhaps you're failing to understand the concept of a
forced win
?
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:43 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Follow the different branches of the plan and notice that every one ends with "Game over, town wins".
It doesn't matter what the scum does, town still wins.
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:47 am

Post by PhilyEc »

Xylthixlm wrote:Follow the different branches of the plan and notice that every one ends with "Game over, town wins".
It doesn't matter what the scum does, town still wins.
Xylthixlm wrote:
If there was no kill night 4

Day 5 (6 alive, 3 unconfirmed): Lynch one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Night 5 (5 alive, 2 unconfirmed): PhilyEc and Mafiaplayer, the mason-roleblockers, block one of Gorrad, qwints, Riceballtail, or Spolium.
Day 6: Depends on if there was a kill night 5.
This seems to be SK's safest option. Sowing seeds of doubt by allowing mislynches to occur until we reach the point of a stalemate. No lynches and no night kills until we fall into a lyol situation.

SK just has to keep a low profile according to what would occur if night 4 turned up no results (Day 4 experiencing a mislynch) thus this is scum's best option. I dont see this being a definate town win either if SK plays this under handedly.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

...

KEEP READING

It's still a forced town win.
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:49 am

Post by PhilyEc »

Xylthixlm wrote:...

KEEP READING

It's still a forced town win.
If theres no night kill, roleblockers won't know if they suceeded or not, we'd have to lynch who we blocked to be sure. What about this instance?
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:50 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

READ THE !%*#!*%#% PLAN! IT GIVES WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS NO KILL NIGHT 5!
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:53 am

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Xylthixlm wrote:READ THE !%*#!*%#% PLAN! IT GIVES WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS NO KILL NIGHT 5!
[Flails wildly] >w<

Its late! I tired! *facepalming self constantly*
Okay so town win. SK, save us time and confess~ :3
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:53 am

Post by qwints »

The point is that if the sk doesn't kill, we can just lynch all the unclaimed roles.
If he does kill, then roleblockers can confirm an unclaimed role and we can lynch all the unconfirmed unclaimed roles.
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:55 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Let me just be perfectly clear about what a forced win plan means.

Once the plan starts, you do not scumhunt or debate. You do what the plan says and ONLY what the plan says. You lynch who the plan says to lynch REGARDLESS of who you think is scum.


I don't want to see anyone mess it up.
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 11:56 am

Post by Spolium »

Sounds good. I support The Plan.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:01 pm

Post by PhilyEc »

Xylthixlm wrote:Let me just be perfectly clear about what a forced win plan means.

Once the plan starts, you do not scumhunt or debate. You do what the plan says and ONLY what the plan says. You lynch who the plan says to lynch REGARDLESS of who you think is scum.


I don't want to see anyone mess it up.
Proposing we begin the lynching process in alphabetical order.
Gorrad
Qwints
Riceball
Spoilum

M'kay?
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:03 pm

Post by Mafiaplayer »

I support the plan.
Anyone who would actually play mafia sucsk
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:05 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

PhilyEc: How sure are you that Mafiaplayer is town?
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:07 pm

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Xylthixlm wrote:PhilyEc: How sure are you that Mafiaplayer is town?
Not very.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:07 pm

Post by qwints »

I'm fine with it. I'm fairly sure that SK wouldn't have recruited mafiaplayer and xyl is confirmed. That means there's a 4 out 5 chance that scum is in that group regardless of any scum tells (unless PhilyEC stood out as a mason.)

We do need to make sure there's no chance that mafiaplayer screws up and that the masons fail to block a player.
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:19 pm

Post by Mafiaplayer »

Spoospoospoo!
Anyone who would actually play mafia sucsk
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 6:05 pm

Post by Gorrad »

I support it, but if I'm right at the end I reserve the right to say I told you so. I have a strong feeling that PhilyEc or Mafiaplayer is playing us like fools, and I'd HATE to be played by Mafiaplayer.
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 6:56 pm

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Gorrad wrote:I support it, but if I'm right at the end I reserve the right to say I told you so. I have a strong feeling that PhilyEc or Mafiaplayer is playing us like fools, and I'd HATE to be played by Mafiaplayer.
Lol, I'm thinking the same thing about MafiaPlayer, but if its any help, Xyl is playing a blinder (amazing game) at the moment and hes completely right about me. I know I can't make this known to you as fact but I really didn't get SK'd the other night.

Vote Gorrad
to get this plan in motion.
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 7:02 pm

Post by qwints »

Vote: Gorrad


I take mafiaplayer's last post as an expression of confidence in his abilities.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 7:10 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Here goes!

vote: Gorrad
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