Mini 1567 - Such Unusual Pretermen... ...Evil Too!

[LoudmouthLee]

Formerfish, I'd like to believe the amount of effort you've put into your cases and activity boosting makes you town, but you're being quite dense at the moment.

Lowercase's slot caught Josh_B as scum Night 0 (replacing Who). I was and am fairly sure that slot's town.

The gunsmith claim was already proved to an extent by the Josh wagon, and Who's behavior regarding the out (claiming Cop first in case Josh_B was a vigilante).

Cho- If you felt this way about my case, why wait til now to vote?

I voted a while ago. Please read before making your accusations.

And please get back on track. I want to lynch Zephryrus' slot today. I didn't wait to vote; I voted right after your case. Now lynch and find more scum.

Be back later.

I really dislike Cho's behavior. He's either scum or not keeping up. How is the gunsmith claim proven? Because he caught scum, once... and now, his slot is clean and pristine? It doesn't jive with me. The bus is still in play. I once bussed two scum days one and two, just to skate to the endgame and win (Mountainous, to be fair..). Just because someone hands you scum D1 doesn't mean they're clean. You need to look at the whole picture.

NS and my own roles are too similar to both be town, his is worded oddly compared to mine, and he failed to include a town wincon. Why? Because he didn't get one.

Pedit: How does it make sense? Because how would you know what the town make up would be? I propose that Who actually did bus day 1 for all the towncred he cashed in on and for the conversation we are having right now. I know that your role changed, but I have no idea from what to what and I have already said that I highly doubt that alignment would change as well. So you started as scum, and stayed scum. How do you explain that there are 2 roles that change people, everyone else being a goon or vanilla, except for you? It is very easy for me to believe that an investigative role would be lying if I don't fully believe they were that investigative role.

This scares me. The reason why I currently align myself with Formerfish is because he has a similar Who read to the one I have. I have explicitly stated as such. I currently feel best with Kagami, but I wouldn't be against a Who/Lowercase lynch. I know NOTHING about the Zep case, and I currently dislike that wagon. Could someone let me know why Zep's spot is a lynch push? Besides the fact that he disappeared (null tell till the day I die).

@Juls, I get the most town read on you. Could you tell me why you like the Zep case? @Geists, you as well, even though you aren't voting Zep.

[Lowercase]

I strongly believe we should dictate NS and fish's actions tonight before we lynch anyone. Fish nerfed me night 0, but we have no idea how his role would act on a VT. Afaik, alignment changing is bastard unless we know it is a possibility in advance, so I think NS should also target a VT tonight.

@fish: The fact that who could not have known town make-up is exactly the point. There is no investigator that could have counter-claimed and in fact, there is a PR with a gun. Hypothetical scum-who could not have known he wouldn't be countered, and unless NS is also scum, you would have to hypothesize a rolecop or blind luck. At that point, you have a ridiculous conspiracy theory that would involve an incredibly risky gambit with virtually no chance of success.

[Juls]

@LML - the hammer was suspect. I had just asked if there was anything else we needed to discuss and he hammered immediately after. A couple problems with that: 1) it was a hammer that could have waited until everyone agreed we were done talking, 2) it was pointed out that who wasn't voting. So it was obvious the lynch would happen since who was guiltying josh. I felt like it could have been an attempt to get town cred for hammering his buddy. Then there is the massive day 2 disappearance despite being active on site.

That being said, I am having a hard time parsing the mass claim and this gun without a battery thing is bothering me. And I feel like there is scum in NS, Lowercase, Kagami because of it. I still have trouble believing it was a d1 bus but something's not right. Does anyone know if Empking is prone to putting red herrings in his games?

[LoudmouthLee]

@LML - the hammer was suspect. I had just asked if there was anything else we needed to discuss and he hammered immediately after. A couple problems with that: 1) it was a hammer that could have waited until everyone agreed we were done talking, 2) it was pointed out that who wasn't voting. So it was obvious the lynch would happen since who was guiltying josh. I felt like it could have been an attempt to get town cred for hammering his buddy. Then there is the massive day 2 disappearance despite being active on site.

That being said, I am having a hard time parsing the mass claim and this gun without a battery thing is bothering me. And I feel like there is scum in NS, Lowercase, Kagami because of it. I still have trouble believing it was a d1 bus but something's not right. Does anyone know if Empking is prone to putting red herrings in his games?

Again, although I feel that disappearance while being active elsewhere is a null-tell (some people drop games because they have a boring role), it seems that the hammer is the key: I'm not sold that case is strong enough to push for a lynch today.

A replacement would be stellar, however.

@Juls, you've given a list of Z, NS, Lowercase (who) and Kagami. Rank them in order of scumminess, please.

[Juls]

It is a good point about flaking. I just scanned his games and he has only replaced out of one and it is ongoing so I don't know his alignment but he was a VT in another and finished and was night killed. He is relatively new and I theres a stat that newbie scum replace out 50.8% of the time compared to 36.6% for town newbies. It's not nothing for sure.

As far as the an ordering, I would probably say Zeph, NS, Kagami, and then Lowercase (who). Zeph for reasons stated, NS because he isn't scum hunting at all and his gun makes me suspicious of him, Kagami because I felt there was some communication going on surrounding the gun but read her as town D1, and lowercase because of the potential it was a d1 bus and the after-the-fact change to gunsmith given the NS claim. But those latter 3 are clear as mud. A lot would change based on any of their flips. I feel more secure in Zeph.

Tldr; we learn more from a NS/kagami/lowercase lynch but Zeph is most outright scummy to me.

[Empking]

Vote Count Twenty-Three: You spend the fee!

Zephyrus (4) - Juls, Belisarius, Cho, Nobody Special
Kagami (2) - geists, LoudmouthLee
FormerFish (1) - Kagami

Not Voting: Zephyrus, MTD, Lowercase, FormerFish

With Eleven alive, it is Six to lynch

(expired on 2014-05-17 13:57:32)

[Juls]

I'd like to hear from geists since mass claim is over (save Zephyrus). I believe one of the heads seemed to think they could figure the game out based on mass claim?

[fferyllt]

When Nati's around again we'll churn through the claims and one of us will post our thoughts (probably mostly Nati's thoughts - he's the gamebreaker in this partnership).

[geists]

When Nati's around again we'll churn through the claims and one of us will post our thoughts (probably mostly Nati's thoughts - he's the gamebreaker in this partnership).

sigh

[geists]

Ok, so we've had our conclave.

In no particular order.

FF is a bet-the-farm level of town read.

Lowercase is also a strong town read but not quite as strong as FF.

And we feel like we need to make the case for town lowercase because it's going to make us pretty sad if we wind up wearing ffery's diplomat hat all game.

Who's posts were pretty chaotic and complicated with a whole lot of subtext about his role. In another game, we'd probably agree that he's perfectly capable and maybe even likely to bus a teammate in much the way that day 1 went down.

The reason we don't think that's what happened is the way lowercase replaced in and instantly was showing motivations that tie back to the same narrative thread that Who wove. We think the handoff would have been less smooth and effortless looking if lowercase had to sort out all of what Who claimed, revised, and implied and build on that, rather than just go with what his role and alignment dictates.

On kagami, we still think she's scum. There's an unguarded openness to her play when she's town, even if her lines of reasoning aren't easy to follow, that we feel is missing in this game. On a post-by-post basis it's hard to define what is different about her play, but it feels different. Impenetrable. If she's town this game then she's pretty far off the usual feel of her posts.

We had hoped for some decent ah ha's from the mass claim but so far aren't really seeing them other than feeling that the overlap of roles between FF and lowercase is maybe a red herring and we should follow our reads.

And finally, we don't think that it's a good idea to dictate night actions to the PRs tonight.

Zeph is an ok lynch and we're willing to consolidate there and give it another day to sort kagami, though we very adamantly want our concerns taken seriously on day 3 if that's the direction things go today.

[Kagami]

I think you should consider evidence that you, and in this game only you, have access to, ferry. Evidence that scum-kagami couldn't have predicted anyone in the game would acquire.

I'm willing to drop FF for now.

What do you think about LML?

[geists]

hm.

will sleep on that, I guess.

LML's style of play is pretty far from current site meta, and I tend to think "town" when the style of play is both vintage and aggressive.

[Nobody Special]

I think you should consider evidence that you, and in this game only you, have access to, ferry. Evidence that scum-kagami couldn't have predicted anyone in the game would acquire.

I'm willing to drop FF for now.

What do you think about LML?

Did you intend to single out ffery, or did you actually mean the slot as a hydra?

[Kagami]

just ferry.

[Juls]

Mod: How's the search for a replacement going?

[Formerfish]

@Nati

- wanna weigh in on the similarities between this game and WTP? I've mentioned it once or twice and even him by name, yet no comparison, or even acknowledgement, has been made.

[geists]

WTP = We the Purple?

I'll ask him about it, but knowing Nati I think the replace-in to a pretty complex set of statements, implications and behaviors, which was neither suspiciously smooth nor suspiciously discordant, would outweigh those concerns.

[Belisarius]

And finally, we don't think that it's a good idea to dictate night actions to the PRs tonight.

Wherefore?

Oh, here's an idea: If we lynch Zeph, Emp doesn't have to keep searching for a replacement!

Clock's ticking, folks.

[Kagami]

If we get to 24 hours prior to deadline with no replace, I'll vote zeph.

[MTD]

If we get to 24 hours prior to deadline with no replace, I'll vote zeph.

This, but I would rather like to hear from that slot before we lynch it, if there is that possibility, so for now I wait.

Sorry for not being very constructive, I am having kind of a hard time investing myself into this (e.g. no clue who might be scum) ...

[Juls]

I agree, I would like to hear from the slot but who would want to replace into this slot?

[Kagami]

I replaced into NY 171 with an L-1 wagon and 100 pages to read.

Some people are just crazy.

[Formerfish]

I replaced into a 130 pages game without any prep only to be lynched within 2 pages. And Zep could legit be town here. I would love to lead a lynch on NS based off set up spec but I doubt I'd get much support there. Or for LC for similar reasons.

[geists]

And finally, we don't think that it's a good idea to dictate night actions to the PRs tonight.

Wherefore?

What would be the benefit? If they follow the dictates of people in-thread, then some of the arguments almost certainly are shaped by scum. Even if town players prevail in the logic department, scum would have a pretty good idea how best to counter what's coming.

Oh, here's an idea: If we lynch Zeph, Emp doesn't have to keep searching for a replacement!

Clock's ticking, folks.

I'd really like a little more data from the slot if possible.

[Kagami]

It makes very little sense for NS to be able to zap a player and then give the zapping power to someone else if he were scum. Scum would just pass it back and forth and the passing mechanic would be pointless, and he also wouldn't have made it public knowledge that it's passable.

The passing mechanic only makes sense to me as something that keeps the role out of scum hands and to help it evade the NK.