Mini 566: Justice League Mafia Game Over


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 6:41 am

Post by Capricious »

Mirth wrote:
Sierra wrote: Only at the 3rd post you started claiming you thought SL was the SK. Why only then?
Because Thesp is mafia scum and he realized that SL was SK scum too late and made up a horrible fake claim to try and get rid of the one preventing him and his scumbuddies (i.e. Capricious and Haschel) from winning?
Let's do some high level math. Normally, mafia wins when they number 50% of the players alive, because when this occurs, they can always prevent lynches of mafia. Now, we are considering 3 team mafias. 3/6 alive is 50%. Do you see where I'm going with this? Same goes for Thesp's highly illogical 3 scum and 1 SK theory earlier.
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 6:49 am

Post by Capricious »

2 town 3 mafia 1SK

the day's lynch will be either town or SK, because mafia sure as hell won't be lynched.

so now either: 2 town, 3 mafia (mafia wins! shock!)

1 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK

If we are going to go by the ridiculous notion that the mafia group doesn't win when they number 60% of the players alive:

Night: mafia targets town/SK
assume best circumstance, that SK is NK invincible and that SK kills mafia. You have:

1 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK left.

with again, the same scenario, mafia numbering 50% of players alive, ensuring they will never be lynched.
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 6:54 am

Post by Capricious »

Singing Librarian wrote:Me first? OK.

I'm L-Ron, who is a small robot who worked with/for the Justice League for a while during the 1980s/1990s. Immune to night kills (presumably due to being made of metal), but otherwise a normal townie.
Hi, friendly neighborhood SK, you are given a reprieve today because if we lynch you, we will lose. ( This is why Thesp knows SL is SK while stating that he must not die.)
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 7:13 am

Post by Mirth »

Capricious, I don't buy your claim. (Though nice bit in there about protecting me, good bit of misdirection for why I'm still alive.) No. Wait. Actually...yes I do. The insane amount of pro-town power roles actually makes your claim make sense. You're not lying, right? Just leaving out the part where you're mafia aligned? Tell me, what is it in your flavor that makes you think I got gooed because of something about you?

And as for high level math, maybe I'm dense or something, but doesn't mafia usually win when they number 50% of the players *and* they're the only antitown roles around? So the 4 scum theory isn't ridiculous. Whats ridiculous is your assumption of balance. 9 townies, at least 6 of whom are power roles vs an SK vs 2 mafia? Well if SL really is NK immune, that might balance out for the SK, but it still seems unbalanced against the mafia.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 8:37 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

I have class now, dramabomb later.
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 9:51 am

Post by Capricious »

I admit it seems unbalanced, and had we not been in this situation, I would also be thinking 3 mafia and 1 SK. Try and find me a game where the mafia group did not win when they numbered at least 50%. It does
not
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 10:52 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Right. I am Booster Gold. I know that the Justice League has been infiltrated by the Manhunters, and it's my job to find the android Rocket Red #7.

Night 1 I targeted Thesp. He is not Rocket Red #7.
Night 2 I targeted Sethaniel. Obviously he wasn't Rocket Red #7.

Now, the "gone to fight justice" Day Scene message is obviously the kill method of the Manhunter android. Whoever is Rocket Red #7 is the SK.

I figured that Singing Librarian was Rocket Red #7 because if Mirth's claim were to be believed, Thesp wasn't it, and Sierra was mafia (something I believed this morning but not now), then it had to be between Cap and SL. Of the two, I felt that Cap was town, and SL had made a bunch of comments about how ZONEACE might come back and "What/who made Zoneace and Sethaniel disappear?" that rubbed me the wrong way. I still believe that SL is the SK, because I find it convenient that SL happens to be a robot and has NK-immunity. NK-immunity is often the sort of benefit given to an SK to balance a game.

Now, if SL is Rocket Red #7, then SL cannot be the Joker. Also, I find it doubtful that there are two roles like mine in the game. Out of me and Thesp, who is lying?

Thesp is, and here's why.

We have seen a kill method that is Manhunter-esque. We have not seen a kill method reminiscent of the Joker. Sierra has claimed Batman, and there have been no counterclaims of vig. Thesp telling the truth would mean 25% of the players would be characters from the Batman universe, and I think our mod has tried to spread things out a bit more.

So, if Thesp is lying, then he is Mafia.

As for Capricious: I've had you pegged as a vanilla townie for most of the game. During the massclaim discussion, you stated
Maybe you guys have experience/flavor information that cause you to believe names could b associated with powers, whatever, I have none.
Now you claim a role that makes sense from your flavor. You were either lying then or are lying now.

Sierra has gone from my main choice as Mafia to the only one of you I unconditionally trust.

I still find it a little suspicious of how Mirth's powers have failed both nights.

Anyhoo, I'm ready to vote for Thesp right now, but I imagine you all will want time to talk. You have until about midnight Pacific Time, and then my vote is going down. We need to lynch Mafia today. Thesp is not the SK, and he's certainly not town.

See you all tonight.
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 11:30 am

Post by Capricious »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:As for Capricious: I've had you pegged as a vanilla townie for most of the game. During the massclaim discussion, you stated
Quote:
Maybe you guys have experience/flavor information that cause you to believe names could b associated with powers, whatever, I have none.
In preparation for the mass name claim that was to happen, I felt that once I had claimed Gypsy, scum would take me for a hider and ignore me in their killing schemes.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 12:02 pm

Post by Capricious »

Very enlightening, Haschel. I would like clarification on why the manhunter android's kill method is obviously "gone to fight justice", and whether or not the manhunters are also the mafia scum group.
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 12:43 pm

Post by Mirth »

I also call bullshit and distancing on Haschel's claim.

I'm going to
vote:Capricious
.

Let me explain why: I think Thesp, Haschel, and Capricious are mafia scum together, and SL is the SK. Sierra is cleared because no one else claimed the Roffman kill and the Roffman kill is not the same as the other kills.

So this leaves us with 5, myself included, unconfirmed. I know that I am not scum, and I believe Sierra's claim due to lack of counterclaim, so pretty much anyone I vote for is probably scum. Since I do believe this is a 3/1 set up, there's a 3 to 1 chance of hitting mafia, which is town needs to do to stop mafia from winning. Now then since half the remaining players are mafia, in order to get a mafia lynch, the person lynched needs to be betrayed by a teammate, yes? While I'd settle for any of the three hanging, I think Capricious has the better chance of being lynched. SL, as the SK, will vote for any of the three, because he needs one of them dead. I will vote for any one of them, because I think they're all scum. Haschel has expressed suspicion of Thesp just now, so that's three. But Sierra and Thesp have indicated willingness to lynch Capricious, so that's a ready made 4 there. So while I'm willing to switch to either Haschel or Thesp, based on the opinions so far indicated, it seems to me that Capricious is the most assured lynch of the three and one of them needs to die.
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 5:24 pm

Post by Capricious »

Ah yes, I am scum with Haschel and Thesp, and I will get lynched because my scum buddies will betray me and lose the game. Facsinating.

This is what you really want, no? You want to see:

Capricious (town) - Mirth (mafia), Singing Librarian (SK), Sierra (town), Thesp (Mafia)

I attribute Mirth's claim to an extraordinary stroke of coincidence.
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 5:25 pm

Post by Capricious »

SK, bear in mind that if a town gets lynched today, you will lose as well, you have no choice but to help us lynch mafia scum.
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 5:28 pm

Post by Capricious »

So, Haschel and Sierra: Thesp or Mirth?
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 8:17 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

I would like clarification on why the manhunter android's kill method is obviously "gone to fight justice", and whether or not the manhunters are also the mafia scum group.
According to the wiki, the Manhunter androids "infiltrated and liberated many planets disguised as living beings and created a "Cult of the Manhunters" that trained others to be their minions." Since the original purpose of the Manhunters was to see justice done, it's not much of a stretch to assume that the Manhunter SK killed ZONEACE and Sethaniel when you already know that Rocket Red #7 is in the game.

As for why I don't think the Manhunters are the Mafia scum group: My role doesn't say that I find out if my target is a Manhunter or not; I find out if they are a specific Manhunter android or not.
Since I do believe this is a 3/1 set up, there's a 3 to 1 chance of hitting mafia, which is town needs to do to stop mafia from winning. Now then since half the remaining players are mafia, in order to get a mafia lynch, the person lynched needs to be betrayed by a teammate, yes?
First off, I don't believe that this is a 3/1 setup. Second, if it was a three-mafia crew, they would not need to bus one of their own. They would do everything they could to convince the remaining three players that one of those three was Mafia, because that would end the game. Call WIFOM if you wish, but my actions today have all but assured that SL will not be lynched today. Why, as a Mafia member in a potentially game-winning situation, reduce the pool?

If your theory was correct (it's not) then at this point I would be doing everything in my power to get you mislynched right now, because that way I could win the game without having to worry about getting killed by the SK or vigged by BATNMAN.

Instead...
So, Haschel and Sierra: Thesp or Mirth?
...I'm choosing Thesp.
Vote: Thesp
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 9:44 pm

Post by Sierra »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:Now, if SL is Rocket Red #7, then SL cannot be the Joker. Also, I find it doubtful that there are two roles like mine in the game. Out of me and Thesp, who is lying?

Thesp is, and here's why.

We have seen a kill method that is Manhunter-esque. We have not seen a kill method reminiscent of the Joker. Sierra has claimed Batman, and there have been no counterclaims of vig. Thesp telling the truth would mean 25% of the players would be characters from the Batman universe, and I think our mod has tried to spread things out a bit more.

So, if Thesp is lying, then he is Mafia.
Haschel, how do you explain Thesp knowing to claim such a role? Do you think he guessed right or maybe he was given this as a safe-claim, or do you have some other explanation for it?

I need some more time to look back a little and think this through, so further analysis will have to wait until later today.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 10:19 pm

Post by Mirth »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
I would like clarification on why the manhunter android's kill method is obviously "gone to fight justice", and whether or not the manhunters are also the mafia scum group.
According to the wiki, the Manhunter androids "infiltrated and liberated many planets disguised as living beings and created a "Cult of the Manhunters" that trained others to be their minions." Since the original purpose of the Manhunters was to see justice done, it's not much of a stretch to assume that the Manhunter SK killed ZONEACE and Sethaniel when you already know that Rocket Red #7 is in the game.

As for why I don't think the Manhunters are the Mafia scum group: My role doesn't say that I find out if my target is a Manhunter or not; I find out if they are a specific Manhunter android or not.
Since I do believe this is a 3/1 set up, there's a 3 to 1 chance of hitting mafia, which is town needs to do to stop mafia from winning. Now then since half the remaining players are mafia, in order to get a mafia lynch, the person lynched needs to be betrayed by a teammate, yes?
First off, I don't believe that this is a 3/1 setup. Second, if it was a three-mafia crew, they would not need to bus one of their own. They would do everything they could to convince the remaining three players that one of those three was Mafia, because that would end the game. Call WIFOM if you wish, but my actions today have all but assured that SL will not be lynched today. Why, as a Mafia member in a potentially game-winning situation, reduce the pool?

If your theory was correct (it's not) then at this point I would be doing everything in my power to get you mislynched right now, because that way I could win the game without having to worry about getting killed by the SK or vigged by BATNMAN.

Instead...
So, Haschel and Sierra: Thesp or Mirth?
...I'm choosing Thesp.
Vote: Thesp
Except that flatout voting the obvious SK when everyone knows we're in LYLO is pretty much declaring "anyone who is on this wagon is scum, so come join us, gullible townie, and make winning easier." Only way to get any sort of vote is to either a)vote me (the nonconfirmed townie) or b)bus a teammate and hope to get lucky.

All the more reason to get rid of scumdoc Capricious. (Bad move, Thesp, connecting yourself to the only role that can protect you from the SK and the Vig and leaving us a nice trail of breadcrumbs)

And Capricious, you can't say I got lucky. I claimed first. You're the one who jumped up and down and tried to make the connection. I repeat we don't know if night action 2 for me failed. It either worked or I did it wrong, since I was not gooed like night 1.

Speaking of goo, you didnt answer my question. Why did you sat my failure was in your flavor?
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 11:12 pm

Post by Singing Librarian »

Obviously, yes, we want to get rid of mafia today.

The claims:

I believe Sierra as Batman-vig. It makes sense, and if it was a lie, we'd know about it by now.

Capricious is lying, or was lying. Saying you have no power, and then claiming a power is bad. Lying is not indicative of being town.

Either Thesp or HC is lying, they can't possibly both be telling the truth. However, it's not immediately obvious which of them is the liar, though I certainly have my opinions. I think it's possible, given the level of power in the town, that the mafia have some sort of power role to mess with the three investigative roles' results (Khelv, ooba and Thesp/HC)

Mirth's claim has already been discussed. It's looking weaker now, though, and needs to be examined thoroughly tomorrow.

I am reluctant to vote for either of the SK-hunters, as we don't want to lynch the wrong one. We *must* lynch mafia today. Capricious is a proven liar (moving from 'I have no power' to 'I am a doc/protector'), so he should be the obvious target to lynch. We can sort out the conflicting set of claims tomorrow (if the SK doesn't sort it out overnight).

Also
Capricious wrote: Hi, friendly neighborhood SK, you are given a reprieve today because if we lynch you, we will lose. ( This is why Thesp knows SL is SK while stating that he must not die.)
This actually tips my opinion in favour of Thesp being town. If he was mafia and believed I was the SK, wouldn't he push for my lynch? Like HC did at the beginning of the day until called on it.

I think it's pretty obvious that our 2-man scumgroup is Capricious (proven liar) plus either Thesp or HC (one of them must be a liar - we can't have two SKs, can we?), with a higher probability of HC over Thesp. If there is a third, which seems unlikely, then Mirth's shaky claim could be a clue to her being the remaining member - tonight's activities could confirm that, though.

I shall await further discussion before voting - however, I am most comfortable voting for Capricious (absolutely sure he's lying scum), followed by HC (most likely to be the liar), then more distantly, given a good, clear argument, Mirth (for the extravagant claim which is looking dodgier and dodgier) and Thesp (is a liar, if HC is telling the truth). Sierra is the only absolute confirmed townie in my opinion.
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 2:51 am

Post by Thesp »

Sierra wrote:The reason I wanted Thesp to claim before I did, was because I thought he might be a tracker or watcher and saw me visit roffman night 1. Him knowing that SL is scum raises some questions.

Thesp, you learned this night 2, right? So why did your first post day 3 say:
Thesp wrote:
Haschel Cedricson, unvote. Now.
We need to wait to place our votes. Seriously. You come out on what's likely LyLo with a vote?

Singing Librarian should not die today. Sierra should, though. His failure to be lynched is a blight upon our town. Seriously.

I'm beginning to think massclaim is in order, no?
Your second post read:
Thesp wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Unvote
.

Thesp is right. We need to hit Mafia today.
Since I know you'll all ask for elaboration, I think SL may be the SK.
:hifive:

:)
Only at the 3rd post you started claiming you thought SL was the SK. Why only then?
I knew we'd be massclaiming (or seriously considering it), and I didn't want to tip my hand early, in case someone was a watcher/tracker I could confirm, or something similar. I wanted to assert how important it was not to vote for SL yet, whilst alluding to it as circumspectly as possible that I knew SL was the SK.
Haschel Cedricson wrote:Now, the "gone to fight justice" Day Scene message is obviously the kill method of the Manhunter android.

...

We have seen a kill method that is Manhunter-esque. We have not seen a kill method reminiscent of the Joker.
Where in the world does this come from?
I love how you just presume this - A sign posted "Gone to serve justice. Good Bye." and a missing person sure sounds like something The Joker would do, and I can't seem to find any imaginable way that it's fitting for Rocket Red #7.

Also, anyone believing Sierra due to lack of counterclaim is absurd. Seriously. Believe him for other reasons if you will, but believing him simply because no one else claimed vig (when it's a popular strategy to claim vig when you really do kill people) is terrible play.
Singing Librarian wrote:This actually tips my opinion in favour of Thesp being town. If he was mafia and believed I was the SK, wouldn't he push for my lynch? Like HC did at the beginning of the day until called on it.
Good job confirming yourself as the SK. If I'm town, then my results must be right. ;) Now, help us lynch mafia and you might have a shot at winning this game. If we lynch town, you have virtually no chance.

Vote: Haschel Cedricson.
I'll move my vote if and only if we have some certainty as to who his partner is, and you all think a non-HC lynch is better (in terms of certainty), but I doubt it.
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 3:49 am

Post by Mirth »

Thesp wrote: Also, anyone believing Sierra due to lack of counterclaim is absurd. Seriously. Believe him for other reasons if you will, but believing him simply because no one else claimed vig (when it's a popular strategy to claim vig when you really do kill people) is terrible play.
Then tell us, oh wise mistress of Delphi, who killed Roffman.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 3:53 am

Post by Thesp »

Mirth wrote:
Thesp wrote: Also, anyone believing Sierra due to lack of counterclaim is absurd. Seriously. Believe him for other reasons if you will, but believing him simply because no one else claimed vig (when it's a popular strategy to claim vig when you really do kill people) is terrible play.
Then tell us, oh wise mistress of Delphi, who killed Roffman.
Ah. Silly me. Never mind, then, carry on. :oops:
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 6:22 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Thesp wrote:
Where in the world does this come from?
I love how you just presume this - A sign posted "Gone to serve justice. Good Bye." and a missing person sure sounds like something The Joker would do, and I can't seem to find any imaginable way that it's fitting for Rocket Red #7.
According to the wiki, the Manhunter androids "infiltrated and liberated many planets disguised as living beings and created a "Cult of the Manhunters" that trained others to be their minions." Since the original purpose of the Manhunters was to see justice done, it's not much of a stretch to assume that the Manhunter SK killed ZONEACE and Sethaniel when you already know that Rocket Red #7 is in the game.
When I first read this, I thought I would be searching for a Cult Leader. When I saw three kills on Day 1, I assumed Mafia, SK, and Vig. The emotionless nature of the notes seems, to me, to be suggestive of somebody who has been reprogrammed to be in a cult.

A sign and a missing person does not sound like something the Joker would do at all. The Joker would use an electric joybuzzer or a novelty sword-pen or that trademark poison that makes people die of laughter.
Except that flatout voting the obvious SK when everyone knows we're in LYLO is pretty much declaring "anyone who is on this wagon is scum, so come join us, gullible townie, and make winning easier."
I have already admitted that I did not run the numbers. My instinct is almost always to reduce the number of nightkills when I think I have the SK figured out. I'm aware it looks bad, but it was just a mistake. Scum like Thesp aren't the only ones who can slip up, you know.
Haschel, how do you explain Thesp knowing to claim such a role?
I think he guessed an uncommon role and got burned when it actually was in the game.
Thesp wrote:Good job confirming yourself as the SK. If I'm town, then my results must be right.
The latter does not follow the former. Besides, SL claimed a role that is a robot, much like Rocket Red #7*, and has a NK-immunity. If I had targeted SL last night, that wouldn't make BOTH of us right when SL was the SK.

The only way SL indicates you are telling the truth would be if SL flat-out said "I am the Joker."

SL: Are you the Joker?
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:30 am

Post by Sierra »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Haschel, how do you explain Thesp knowing to claim such a role?
I think he guessed an uncommon role and got burned when it actually was in the game.
I just reread day 1. I found this interesting post:
Thesp wrote:
ZONEACE wrote:wait when did i vote Thesp???
I like this attitude!

I am categorically against a mass role claim here - I'm not sure the potential benefits outweigh the risks. (I know when I mod games with character names, I particularly like to put in
roles who are trying to kill a particular character
.)

actr, you didn't tell us who your partners were. It wil make it harder to find the scum if you don't confess. :(
I bolded the interesting part. This gives me some more confidence in Thesp.


I don't have time to go through day 2 as well right now, hopefully you'll hear more from me tonight.

Oh and one more thing, this post doesn't make sense to me:
Capricious wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:As for Capricious: I've had you pegged as a vanilla townie for most of the game. During the massclaim discussion, you stated
Quote:
Maybe you guys have experience/flavor information that cause you to believe names could b associated with powers, whatever, I have none.
In preparation for the mass name claim that was to happen, I felt that once I had claimed Gypsy, scum would take me for a hider and ignore me in their killing schemes.
In your explanation you say you wanted scum to link your name with your power, but the earlier post by you clearly states you couldn't link your name with your power.
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 8:00 am

Post by Capricious »

Capricious wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:
As for Capricious: I've had you pegged as a vanilla townie for most of the game. During the massclaim discussion, you stated
Quote:
Maybe you guys have experience/flavor information that cause you to believe names could b associated with powers, whatever, I have none.


In preparation for the mass name claim that was to happen, I felt that once I had claimed Gypsy, scum would take me for a hider and ignore me in their killing schemes.

In your explanation you say you wanted scum to link your name with your power, but the earlier post by you clearly states you couldn't link your name with your power.
Yes, I told the truth that I felt scum couldn't link my name with my power, and I also told the truth that I felt could pass off as a hider to scum.
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 8:04 am

Post by Capricious »

[quote= "Singing Librarian"]Capricious wrote:

Hi, friendly neighborhood SK, you are given a reprieve today because if we lynch you, we will lose. ( This is why Thesp knows SL is SK while stating that he must not die.)


This actually tips my opinion in favour of Thesp being town. If he was mafia and believed I was the SK, wouldn't he push for my lynch? Like HC did at the beginning of the day until called on it. [/quote]

No, Thesp is not stupid enough to do something so obvious like that. How bad would it look when he claims SK finder while all along pressing to lynch the SK in a situation when it's "Lynch mafia scum or lose"?
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 8:06 am

Post by Capricious »

Mod: Please inform us as to whether or not you can reveal how ooba died, thx.
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