Mafiascum.net

Fairly likely to flip scum.
Thoughts on possible even vig shot if townflip-NK I guess.

No if we have vig vig should shoot brawl so we don't end up having to policy lynch.

I was VT.

Please lynch TiaM tomorrow.

In post 541, TwoInAMillion wrote:Hope this is the last lynch.

No. But I suspect yours will be on Day 3.

In post 526, BuJaber wrote:TIAM is town because of his pre-lynch arguing for a garuga lynch.

If you're scum partners with him and forced to bus one of your partners why bother fighting over which one. And why push the lynch of the stronger role of the two.

Because it makes you look good later on? When TiaM voted Garuga there was only one previous vote there so not much danger. Tiam's vote move meant that whichever one of them got lynched next, the third would appear close to conftown.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. Shoshin and garuga were getting lynched no matter what.

Only thing relevant is if TIAM did it to save himself. And it's a weird way of trying to earn towncred. Bussing is already bussing. He doesn't need to get fancy with it. But whatever.. once we lynch all the scummy people we can look at TIAM again.

VC 2.04

BuJaber (0):

Not Known 15(0):

Gustavo (0):

Hopkirk (0):

MusicBox(6):

ByronVilla, Dunnstral, TwoInAMillion, BuJaber, Gustavo, Not Known 15

TwoInAMillion (3):

MusicBox, TehBrawlGuy, Hopkirk

ByronVilla (0):

Srceenplay (0):

TehBrawlGuy (1):

Srceenplay

Dunnstral(0):

Not Voting(0):

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

Day 2 deadlines expires in:

(expired on 2018-05-30 19:03:37)

Mod Notes: Eureka!

MB shouldn't be listed in the VC.



Lynch/vig NK and TiM I think is where I'm at.

Looking at setups with neighbours would be a good idea.

NK15's hammer stopped MB from possibly answering byron's questions.

Still doubt that TIAM is scum.
I'd still probably want to policy lynch brawl at some point.

And dunn replaced knuflanto whom I was suspecting also. But since voyc (replaced by NK15) was the original wagon before music box let's start here.

In post 337, Archwing wrote:

VC 1.05

BuJaber (1):

Shoshin

Mumble (0):

Voyc (0):

Gustavo (0):

Hopkirk (1):

Saudade

Saudade (0):

TwoInAMillion (0):

ByronVilla (0):

Garuga (2):

ByronVilla, TwoInAMillion,

Shoshin (7):

Srceenplay, BuJaber, TehBrawlGuy, Hopkirk, Gustavo, Mumble, Garuga

Srceenplay (0):

TehBrawlGuy (0):

Knuflanto (1):

Voyc

Not Voting(1):

Knuflanto

Garuga was on shoshin's wagon. Typically in that case the last scum would be off the wagon.

Voyc /knuflanto/Byron/TIAM

Byron I'm pretty confident is town.
TIAM I doubt very much that he is scum.
Knuflanto and voyc were my SRs even before the music box lynch.

On wagon: hop I slightly suspect based on meta. Gustavo pings me but I think that's just a playstyle clash. And lastly brawl would mean garuga not just gave up but gamethrew and that 2 scum were in a 3 player neighborhood and that he killed the person most out for his blood. He have done it for WIFOM but I think it's more likely he's being framed.

Preference for today
NK15 (voyc) >> Dunn (knuflanto) >> hopkirk

Before we lynch today we should wait for any results - give a chance for everyone to check in.

In post 545, TehBrawlGuy wrote:

In post 543, Gustavo wrote:If this is a town flip we are lynching brawl tomorrow.

I'm pretty ok with this actually.

VOTE: braw

I actually agree with Gustavo.

VOTE: Brawl

Why?

Now I am doubting you

You're the one who was using statistics to argue 1 scum in neighborhood... how many 3 player neighbors in mafia scum history have had 2 scum?

Not to mention that brawl's play doesn't seem scummy and then all the other reasons I mentioned.

I'm currently getting a tad worried on time. Maybe that's me overthinking stuff but idk.

Now if we look at the people left we can see there's 8 left, and if we assume
1) A lynch happens each day and someone is killed each night
2) There's only one scum left
then it means that we have 3 more days to lynch scum, and 3 suspects currently stand out to me. Each of them for the same kind of reasoning, which might be linked to my pretty clear distaste for inactivity but 'Ah well' let's get onto the list. (Oh hey this is Bu's 3 suspects too. That's weird huh)

Voyc/NK15 - Super sus hammer onto Music, overall the duo has 7 posts over two days, which is just so bad in terms of contribution. The problem here is I feel this is almost too easy of a target, like I don't feel like a scum would contribute this little and make that hammer at the same time, it just feels like it'd be leaving themselves open.

Knu/Dunn - As I talk about how I felt about NK being an easy target, Dunn is like diet NK. This duo has posted a bit more, clocking in at 18 posts, and haven't done anything as silly as finish a wagon before all the info has been gathered, however that's my exact problem. I fear that Dunn could just fly under the radar whilst we do things like policy lynch Brawl and probably draw suspicion somewhere else (I can imagine the wagon going onto NK or TIAM, as that seems to be the two most scummy via general town consensus), so keep an eye on this one.

Hopkirk - Now I'll be honest and say that this is pretty much a pure gut read, but ever since I reread D1 during N1 I realized that he's landing himself right in the middle area between the spectrum of towny and scummy. He's not done anything out of line, however he isn't doing anything especially townie. He had Garuga in his town pool, yet was on Shoshin's wagon. A few weird contradictions in his posts too:

He says this in response to talking about 10-3 vs 9-4. Admittedly the answer to the debacle was right in front of us but still I find it weird that he says this...

In post 382, Hopkirk wrote:I’m glad the vig was Mumble and not someone bad.
Gustavo or Voyc top two picks for last scum I guess.

Let’s stop debating dumb setup stuff.

Yet he's been talking about set-ups in a lot of his posts. Here's a few examples:

In post 291, Hopkirk wrote:Well he hasn't hosted enough for that to be worthwhile.
I assume that means it's more likely for the setup to be typical rather than super creative though? Probably 1/3 scum as usual.

A lot of talk about vig's even though a vig is already dead

In post 383, Hopkirk wrote:Can narrow down the scumpool enough that lynch+even-vig makes this pretty trivial.

In post 478, Hopkirk wrote:I was thinking even-night vig, but that's not necesarily here with a even commuter.

Even today he's talking about set-ups

In post 559, Hopkirk wrote:Looking at setups with neighbours would be a good idea.

It just feels off to me, like there's already two votes on Brawl and whilst I do agree we should lynch him at some point there's a lot of people that I feel are slipping through the cracks and we need to keep a note of them at the very least.

Ending this on a full readist


BuJaber
Gustavo
TehBrawlGuy
TwoInAMillion
Not Known 15/Hopkirk/Dunnstral (not sure how to sort these)

If there is scum on shoshin's wagon it is definitely hopkirk.

His towngame is more out there and confident.. you either townread him or scumread him. But i'm hesitant to lynch him for this because a) there are others keeping a low profile.. hop is no different
b) typically if 1 scum busses the other doesn't
c) knuflanto build a case against me for my shoshin/brawl/screen analysis that ultimately turned out to be right on the money. When the neighborhood was outed publicly by screen he backed off.
It is possible it's town who was wrong and then corrected his mistake but I kinda feel it was his way of protecting shoshin.
If knuflanto didn't replace out I'd be pushing for her lynch but I'm willing to give dunn a chance.
d) 2 scum were outed realy early in the game. If you're scum seeing your partners about to be lynched wouldn't you continue to lurk / replace out?

For the record I don't encourage people to replace out if they're losing and I wouldn't personally do it. but nobody can deny that it does happen often in MS.

You're right, I forgot that Brawl was in the neighborhood.

In post 570, TwoInAMillion wrote:You're right, I forgot that Brawl was in the neighborhood.

Unvote

Why does that matter?

If brawl isn’t scum it’s probably tiam. I went from his top scum reed to sheeping me

I'm definatley not scum. I'm just trying to sort things out like everyone else. I never said you were my "top" scum read.

You definitely gave that impression