Newbie 1875 | D4

[stungun0404]

@Klick, what town incentives can you uncover in a quick iso of nexus? what scum incentives as well?

[teacher]

Yes, Im still on and typing. Probably 20 mins.

[teacher]

My case consists of six parts. Yup, still haven’t learned conciseness. Sorry. This is going to be my last affirmative, substantive post this game. I will respond to any questions and defend myself, but Im putting all my thoughts here, for whatever they are worth. At least Ive learned spoilers?

Part I - Summary wherein I disclose my motivations and biases

Spoiler: Summary

Since this is my last post, Im going to go fully open and reveal my thought process since day start.

I saw the flip, and Klick’s last post clearing himself. Somehow I scrolled over the inbetween. I voted Invis sticking by my reads in 486. Then – seeing the inbetween – I saw the clear. So I voted nexus.

Later I unvoted (following Invis)

That italicized part is where my reasoning gets sketchy. Im going to own it and hope that helps. I unvoted because I decided it would be better to lynch stun today, purely because I thought he was more of a risk at lylo. I ISOed him and came up with a theory, but didn’t have time to write it. So at that time – Friday afternoon - my target was pre-determined, and my mental case was centered on overall win strategy rather than genuine best-scum selection.

But then Friday night happened, and Stun’s posts tweaked my gut that the read I wanted to justify might actually be right. (Part II). So I again researched D1, and actually concluded Stun is more likely scum than Nexus. (Part III). Thus, rather than post the case, I left a question and waited to see how they played today, which confirmed that read. (Part IV). Part V adds some odds-and-ends, while Part VI concludes with a discussion of the ramifications of what is now my genuine read.

Bottom line, I genuinely find stun scummier than nexus. But I wanted that to happen before it did, and I definitely suffer from confirmation bias. Ill sheep whatever Klick and Invis decide.

Part II – The First Clue

Spoiler: The PowerWolf

Right now the board is left with 2 known!towns and three slots that had been relatively townread from play and position on scum lynch. So whoever is a wolf must be powerwolfing and bussing. Knowing my alignment, powerwolfing far better describes Stun than Nexus. And then Stun confirmed it after my posts Friday afternoon:

This exchange pretty much confirms klick as town, because i cannot otherwise make sense of why irrelephant would include this information in this exact post……
klick is almost conftown. i now believe him to be conftown, however, because of the evidence i already had klick as nearly locktown.

LAMISTy repetition of something already said twice, with the same excerpt even, and added

FAKE

buddying of the known!town to avoid the noose. The buddying is fake because (1) the JK alone would be conf!town, not "almost" as Stun says, and (2) Stun’s D2 position on Klick is impossible, as I will show in Part IV.

this post was a nice crumb of who he targeted last night phase.

And why not buddy Invis by repeating what the board has also already said for good measure. See also the praise for the erroneous mylo post in 516.

Part III – Revisiting D1

Spoiler: Distancing Plat and Stun v. Voting Nexus

In 535, Stun calls Nexus’s entry distancing. But the videotape reveals the opposite, that it is Plat and stun who distanced, while Nexus hunted.

• Post 7: Plat RVS’s Stun’s slot.
  
• Post 76: Weirdly, Plat revotes the same slot after substitution, even though its silent. Its like he wants the board to remember he planted a vote there, but said it was RVS so he could retreat from it.
  
• Post 90: I’ve already described this post as knowing to much about the Dakster slot since 4 others were lurking, but now I think I now why.
  
• Post 97: Stun’s arrival, and the start of his distancing. My memory before this ISO was that Stun had pushed the Plat wagon hard. And he did as here, scumreading it, but he never actually voted it until 212-when Xander had come out against it and I had moved to Nexus.
  
• Post 98, 99, 100: LAMISTy wolfing, particularly with repeating the point about Post 24 that like five people had already discussed?
  
• Post 137: More scumreading without voting from Stun.
  
• Post 165: The sharp contrast of Nexus’s entrance – a plat vote before Stun, even though Stun’s been shading it from pages.
  
• Post 183: Stun buddies/townreads the two leaders. (Could be legit, but can see scum motives)
  
• Post 205, 206, 208: Nexus NOT powerwolfing.
  
• Post 212: Finally Stun votes.
  
• Post 225: This is the first and only time that Stun makes a new, unique point against Plat.
  
• Post 249: Nexus cheerleading a scum lynch
  
• Post 263: Nexus jumps down Plat’s throat for his last post.
  
• Post 282 to 287: Feels like a flurry of spam from Stun to all slots designed to get the focus off Plat, including 287’s defense of Plat by virtue of the Espe read.
  
• Post 337 to 346: Nexus’ reaction to being a wagon does not feel scummy. And we know Elephant’s lynchbait comment in 356 was accurate.
  EoD: This is the one section that definitely looks better for Stun than Nexus, but designedly so? Once I jumpted to Plat, given prior views and deadline pressure, I feel like that was inevitable. So was Stun playing up his happiness for towncred? I don’t know.

But I know that on balance from the day’s ISO, I think Nexus was more truly interested in lynching Plat than Stun was.

Part IV – D2 and D3, quickly

Spoiler: How Klick Seals The Deal

On Day 2, in posts 478-79, Stun does a long VCA. Then, in Post 490, Stun mimics me and calls Klick a townclear. I had assumed he joined in this because he saw either Elephant’s real soft in 472, or my fake soft in 486. BUT, on D3 in post 514, he implicitly denies that (as he has to for tomorrows case, to blame me for killing Elephant since I clearly saw the soft). Here is the problem:

• There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that the one person off a scum lynch wagon can be a townclear regardless of play without an investigative result.

Stun is too proficient for this error, as the rest of his play shows. But he has to make it in order to thread the needle he needs to win – get Nexus killed, then turn on me with my Plat defense and my acknowledged witnessing of Elephant’s soft. Hence my question in 517.

Stun provided an answer in 521 that is a nonsequitur – defending scum!Plat is something scum would definitely do; and defending Espe would make that attract less attention. 522 is even worse, trying to give town special credit for defending a powerrole, which is nonsense (as Klick notes in 532). Simply, Stun cant explain his D2 read on Klick coherently.

Part V – Odds and Ends

Spoiler: Cherries on the Sunday

Im tired, and Im convinced, so Im going to do this lightning round style.

L-2

To frame someone for a “knowing” falsehammer?

why question everybody immediately upon entering the thread AND then actually care enough to follow-up on every single question?

So you can make this LAMISTY powerwolf defense?

why, if i were scum, would i be so adamant about a plat hammer in the sense that i actively encouraged it to happen more than anyone else?

Because there wasn’t going to be a second save hours before deadline?

why, if i were scum, would i have helped to basically limit the lynchpool to myself, teacher, and nexus?

Because Klick had already done so, AND I had already done so, so you had no choice?

i’ve felt teacher, meanwhile, has kept his option of me open—albeit as a last resort.

I did, in 486, because you were not guaranteed town. As for today, I didn’t make a case because I didn’t want to hint who it was going to go against so as not to affect todays play which to me makes you look bad – including this reverse shade (I closed my door to teacher, but look look how he’s keeping his door open)

@invisibility, what is your take on all of the remaining players?

Asking who to nightkill, Invis or Klick.

can you add a little reasoning to support your townread of teacher just so that i feel that you have given careful consideration to it? i see you handed a townread to him and platfleece in the same post early in the game just for simply driving discussion in the game forward — is it something about the way he’s doing it that clicks to you personally?

Night kill analysis again.

Part V – Conclusion

So yesterday I thought that Nexus was comparatively twice as scummy as Stun. Now, I think its like 70/30 Stun. But I am definitely not sure. And whoever is scum is going to kill whoever of Invis and Klick they think is less likely to mislynch. So I think Invis and Klick have to discuss this now, and decide on their next two lynches together. I will answer any questions they have and sheep them, including onto myself. At bottom, with two shots, they have a statistical 83% chance of winning, which is good enough by me. Good luck, conf!towns.

[Klick]

First of all - 83%? Isn't it a straight 2/3 shot, since we're lynching 2 out of 3 non-clears? Not sure how you came to that number. (I realize that's not particularly relevant or helpful but I can't help questioning it )

I had a nice full re-read of the game earlier today, and I came to a similar conclusion - stungun's interactions with plat are actually pretty damning, and I think Nexus comes across as particularly town D1 and doesn't look like a reasonable partner to plat.

Frankly, Nexus was obvious town upon a reread. His thought process is clear and consistent throughout. He comes in with a push on plat, sticks with it, joins the Espe wagon in a reasonable way, and then goes back to his original scumread on plat. I don't support a Nexus lynch today without a legitimate and convincing case.

I didn't like how stungun

or

teacher looked in their interactions with plat, though. I can go into a bit more detail tomorrow, it's getting late here.

[teacher]

First of all - 83%? Isn't it a straight 2/3 shot, since we're lynching 2 out of 3 non-clears? Not sure how you came to that number. (I realize that's not particularly relevant or helpful but I can't help questioning it )

It was a late/tired miscalculation. I think the odds of hitting town both times are (2/3)*(1/2)=33%, so 67% win rate. I somehow did it as 1 minus the odds of hitting scum today (1/3) and the odds tomorrow (1/2), which is wrong in any world.

As for the rest of your post, welp. I'll respond to anything you like since Im town. I explained my play on Plat in real time since Im wordy like that, but I definitely did try to swoop down and save him when the wagon got real -- fully true. But I also put him under the knife FIRST after the PR claim (but fypov it could have been inevitable).

Finally, a random point Ive been wanting to make - Mylo is when town can still no-lynch. Lylo is when it must catch scum. Tomorrow is Lylo.

[Klick]

I think it’s probably just stungun - his associations with plat are much worse. I just think if stun happens to be town, you’re more likely scum than Nexus. And along the same logic you used in initially pushing stungun, I’m concerned you won’t be lynched tomorrow if stun’s town because everyone else seems to have a strong townread on you. But that means I’m probably not getting a lynch on you today regardless.

[stungun0404]

i'm working on a very in-depth case at the moment, so please hold off on lynchwagoning me! i'm already L-2 and scum could quickhammer me :-/

[teacher]

Im not voting til Invis and Klick tell me to.

[Invisibility]

we have 12 days

[xRECKONERx]

teacher
stungun0404 (1): Nexus
Klick
Nexus (1): stungun0404
Invisibility

Deadline is (expired on 2018-07-27 17:00:00). With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[stungun0404]

@teacher, i'll respond to your case shortly in-depth, with some key insights into my own play that's provable by the meta trail i've left behind. therefore, i'd prefer that no one lays another vote down on me until after i've finished that case, because then it's absolutely fair game. i plan to utilize this day phase to make as many extended cases as i can and to preferably encourage this day phase to extend longer (meaning if someone put nexus at L-1 at this point, then i would unvote, but he's still my preferred lynchwagon - which i am communicating through my vote if you get my drift). I'm adopting this playstyle because i mistakenly rushed last day phase to the conclusion that xander was scum, but now it's proven that he was not scum after all. I legitimately thought the mod was trolling when I saw his flip. :-X

but, here's the problem i'm having with seeing nexus as town. first, i already PoE'd everyone down to that one slot, and additionally i'll proffer these points as further support. so you guys understand my thought process right now, i'll go in-depth with this. for this vca, i'll add in a darker shade of green for invisibility and klick, as an objective player could reasonably assert them both as conftown.

Spoiler: updated vote count analysis

Daskter/stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Picklepaige/irrelephant11

(1):

Invisibility

platfleece

(2): wingedcatgirl/nexus, teacher
wingedcatgirl/nexus (1):

Xander

Invisibility

(2):

Picklepaige/irrelephant11

,

isolato/klick

*this part and below stungun has added in
not voting as of this vote count: dakster/stungun0404,

espeonage

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

isolato/klick

(1): stungun0404

Irrelephant11

(1):

Invisibility

platfleece

(3): wingedcatgirl/nexus, teacher,

Espeonage

wingedcatgirl/nexus (1):

Xander

Invisibility

(1):

isolato/klick

Espeonage

(1):

Irrelephant11

not voting (stungun will be adding this for every subsequent one, so expect it): no one

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

platfleece

(2): Nexus, teacher

Xander

(1): Irrelephant11

Invisibility

(1):

isolato/klick

Espeonage

(2): stungun0404,

Invisibility

not voting:

Espeonage

,

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Klick

(1):

Irrelephant

Irrelephant11

(1):

Klick

platfleece

(2): Nexus, stungun0404
Nexus (1): teacher

Espeonage

(1):

Invisibility

not voting:

Espeonage

,

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(3): Nexus, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

Nexus (1): teacher

Espeonage

(1):

Invisibility

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece (3)

: Nexus, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

Nexus (1): teacher

Not voting:

Xander

,

invisibility

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2): Klick,

Espeonage

platfleece

(1): stungun0404
Nexus (2): teacher, Invisibility

Espeonage

(2): Nexus,

Irrelephant

not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(4): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

Espeonage

(1): Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(4): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

Espeonage

(1): Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11 (2): Klick,

Espeonage

platfleece

(5): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

, Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

Day 2

Xander

(4):

Irrelephant11

, teacher, stungun0404, Nexus
Nexus (1):

Invisibility

Not voting:

Klick

,

Xander

So what does these vote counts prove? I'll dive into more detail now that there's puddles of game content to derive from it.

• First, I personally feel that platfleece
  wanted
  a lynchwagon to form on me, but never got her wish thankfully --> that's the only way that I can mentally make sense of it given that i am town and she was scum. Also, it's anyone else's judgment call, but do you feel scum!me with a partner of platfleece consistently casts the vote that changes the lynchwagon tide right in the direction of platfleece--who would have to be my partner if you were to conclude that i am scum? The reason i ask this (as you may find it irrelephant) is because i would have had to distract away from a town mislynch twice (irrelephant both times), which would inherently be very unfruitful towards advancing my supposed scum wincon. Not only that, but the way that I actively encouraged votes to continue going in that direction (in 409 and further in 418) should spell out that i have no association with plat, as that would be atrocious scumplay on D1 TBQH (actively encouraging a hammer vote on a player that would hypothetically be your only partner; idk who does that as scum?). and i encouraged a lynchwagon to develop in her direction not once, but twice on D1, and stuck by it both times; ultimately, that's a lot of jeopardy for anyone to conceive that i'd put a partner in. BY extension of this same logic, teacher also would have had to throw platfleece into a pitfire once with the second vote to make plat the leading wagon as of the vote count in 130. Thus, if we take that logic to heart, it is reasonable that I have concluded a narrowing of the scumpool right down to Nexus--whose slot casted the only plausible distancing vote that didn't directly throw platfleece into a fire pit (wingedcatgirl did it in 50, for reference) --> with notable exception taken to the hammer vote, which helped seal the deal. However, this is the most logical distancing attempt IMO based on
  vote placement
  alone.
  
  
• Second, i'll say that with only 1 scum flip and 1 town flip, it was exceedingly hard for me to draw an extensive array of conclusions largely because platfleece left her damned vote on me the entire day phase --> however, let me now remedy this properly!
  
  
• Theoretically, even without the clear from irrelephant on klick, it makes zero sense for him to be scum based off VCA and a quick iso. Therefore, the way in which the circumstances combine here make it crystal-clear he is
  town
  . First, via his second post in his ISO (233), you can see he asserted that he felt platfleece was town and he stuck by this assertion in 401 -- and guess what, scum got lynched day 1! I feel if we were dealing with Klick!scum defending platfleece as being town, then plat likely wouldn't have been such a clearly and widely supported day 1 lynch unless town just flat-out happened to luck into one the way the day phase progressed without many clear counterwagons (Espeonage and irrelephant were the clearest, and incidentally both power roles as we now know). Thus, it is reasonable to conclude now that Xander was not scum, that scum must have been on the D1 lynchwagon (I stand by my vote last day phase FWIW, even though it was erroneously aimed and that's because i've seen newbie scum not lay a vote down for the majority of a day phase before). Additionally, Klick of course discouraged the counterwagon of espeonage. Moreover, IN KLICK and PLAT'S ISO, there are zero traces of conceivable distancing attempts between the 2 in the case that Klick was to be scum -- which would only be a plausible scum strategy between 2 partners IMHO if they were both newbies at this game and had no idea how to operate. I don't take it that Klick is a newbie, as 233 clearly indicated to me in that he understood the concept of OMGUS. platfleece was a newbie as her 40 reveals.
  
  
• Reasons to believe Nexus is scum: first, it's absolutely provable that scum left by themselves tend to be heavily disinclined to type out long wall posts at this stage in the game, and especially ones with exceptionally well-detailed information regarding the gamestate when they are considered as a serious lynch option (this is not hard to research; there's a sort of psychological effect that comes onto them that tends to wear them thin over time --> and this would especially take effect when they are asked to prove someone is town that might be on their eventual lynch menu); the obvious exception to the psychological effect is where a crystal-clear win path is there, or when they are in a MYLO type of situation. From this, one could conclude Nexus as most plausible scum, given his reluctance to make in-depth cases, in addition to his linear focus on one player at a time each time we lynch while going back on previous town assertions/stances adopted (last time - xander (reread 208 and then consider it together with 492), and now stungun (consider 208 where he doesn't take a stance on me but asserts that he likes my post in conjunction with 518 and his eventual vote in 528 over 'wifom statements), i'm assuming next would be teacher); seems calculated to me. Seeing that he used no information to back up his townread of teacher when klick prompted him to do so seems to me to have more scum motive than town motive, because he could easily retract what he's said in claiming that 'teacher is town' without doing much else. Noting that Nexus replaced into wingedcatgirl's slot, we can see that wingedcatgirl parked her vote on platfleece as of 50, and her replacement, Nexus, inherited this vote by consequence of replacing in --> keeping a vote on one's partner while replacing out could very well be seen as a distancing attempt. 206 from Nexus is enlightening, in that he says he doesn't make wall posts as town or scum --> he doesn't see the point of it, which could thus mean if he's partners with plat he may have avoided talking about her in depth intentionally, and combined with plat's fading content at the end of D1 (she lurked more and more; --> this is evident because her second to last post was still harping on wingedcatgirl; we may have deprived of any traceable theory-related distancing attempts the two of them might have otherwise performed in the instance plat didn't end the day phase so lurky and if nexus hadn't stated reluctance to making in-depth cases about players). the obvious distancing attempt in the case they are both scum lies in the vote --> which both nexus and wingedcatgirl performed. because winged provided no reasoning for the vote, her partner in the case nexus is scum wouldn't have been placed under any imminent danger, which directly supports nexus likely being scum.
  
  
• Invisibility had votes on both power roles on D1, so it's an awfully fortunate thing for us that Irrelephant cleared him, good choice irrelephant! Otherwise, I think scum could easily push a mislynch in his direction if given the proper context.
  
  
• Interestingly, this time i noticed that teacher has not had a vote laid down on him this entire game so far --> well done there! Your pro-town in appearance efforts are the direct contribution to this, if I had to pluck out the reason why. Seems that platfleece placed her first official townread on teacher -- which i could conceivably see somebody viewing that that as a distancing attempt from a newbie -- but i'm not buying that. it does slightly concern me that she followed everyone else onto that read, though, with hindsight. Still think VCA spews teacher as town, however, because of his early addition to basically all the wagons that he has joined. He was 2nd on the platfleece wagon --> with valid reasoning in his case in 166, first to vote Nexus in 202 with the motive of pressuring which is understandably a pro-town reason to vote, first on the EoD platfleece wagon in 375 because of her continual lurking out --> which is also valid reasoning. This pattern continues D2, with a vote of Xander in his first post of the day phase, 469 --> a logical follow-up from his 436 at the end of D1 where he concluded Xander must be Plat's partner. Finally, he's the second to vote Nexus today --> his first vote without an attached reasoning, but I'd say it's due to PoE in his view. It's difficult to see scum leading so many wagons like this, and trying so hardly to mislead us so consistently. It is much easier to assume that teacher is town if we take the theory of Occam's Razor into account --> which states no more assumptions should be made than necessary. If we deem someone's content to consistently have a pro-town effort, than it is easier to assume that they are pro-town, and thus they are town!

[stungun0404]

let me fix that last post, as i formatted it wrong and it reads terribly because of where the spoiler ending takes place and lack of spaces between the bullet points.

Spoiler: updated vote count analysis

Daskter/stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Picklepaige/irrelephant11

(1):

Invisibility

platfleece

(2): wingedcatgirl/nexus, teacher
wingedcatgirl/nexus (1):

Xander

Invisibility

(2):

Picklepaige/irrelephant11

,

isolato/klick

*this part and below stungun has added in
not voting as of this vote count: dakster/stungun0404,

espeonage

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

isolato/klick

(1): stungun0404

Irrelephant11

(1):

Invisibility

platfleece

(3): wingedcatgirl/nexus, teacher,

Espeonage

wingedcatgirl/nexus (1):

Xander

Invisibility

(1):

isolato/klick

Espeonage

(1):

Irrelephant11

not voting (stungun will be adding this for every subsequent one, so expect it): no one

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

platfleece

(2): Nexus, teacher

Xander

(1): Irrelephant11

Invisibility

(1):

isolato/klick

Espeonage

(2): stungun0404,

Invisibility

not voting:

Espeonage

,

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Klick

(1):

Irrelephant

Irrelephant11

(1):

Klick

platfleece

(2): Nexus, stungun0404
Nexus (1): teacher

Espeonage

(1):

Invisibility

not voting:

Espeonage

,

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(3): Nexus, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

Nexus (1): teacher

Espeonage

(1):

Invisibility

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece (3)

: Nexus, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

Nexus (1): teacher

Not voting:

Xander

,

invisibility

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2): Klick,

Espeonage

platfleece

(1): stungun0404
Nexus (2): teacher, Invisibility

Espeonage

(2): Nexus,

Irrelephant

not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(4): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

Espeonage

(1): Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11

(2):

Klick

,

Espeonage

platfleece

(4): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

Espeonage

(1): Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

stungun0404 (1):

platfleece

Irrelephant11 (2): Klick,

Espeonage

platfleece

(5): teacher, stungun0404,

Irrelephant

,

Invisibility

, Nexus

Not voting:

Xander

Day 2

Xander

(4):

Irrelephant11

, teacher, stungun0404, Nexus
Nexus (1):

Invisibility

Not voting:

Klick

,

Xander

So what does these vote counts prove? I'll dive into more detail now that there's puddles of game content to derive from it.

• First, I personally feel that platfleece
  wanted
  a lynchwagon to form on me, but never got her wish thankfully --> that's the only way that I can mentally make sense of it given that i am town and she was scum. Also, it's anyone else's judgment call, but do you feel scum!me with a partner of platfleece consistently casts the vote that changes the lynchwagon tide right in the direction of platfleece--who would have to be my partner if you were to conclude that i am scum? The reason i ask this (as you may find it irrelephant) is because i would have had to distract away from a town mislynch twice (irrelephant both times), which would inherently be very unfruitful towards advancing my supposed scum wincon. Not only that, but the way that I actively encouraged votes to continue going in that direction (in 409 and further in 418) should spell out that i have no association with plat, as that would be atrocious scumplay on D1 TBQH (actively encouraging a hammer vote on a player that would hypothetically be your only partner; idk who does that as scum?). and i encouraged a lynchwagon to develop in her direction not once, but twice on D1, and stuck by it both times; ultimately, that's a lot of jeopardy for anyone to conceive that i'd put a partner in. BY extension of this same logic, teacher also would have had to throw platfleece into a pitfire once with the second vote to make plat the leading wagon as of the vote count in 130. Thus, if we take that logic to heart, it is reasonable that I have concluded a narrowing of the scumpool right down to Nexus--whose slot casted the only plausible distancing vote that didn't directly throw platfleece into a fire pit (wingedcatgirl did it in 50, for reference) --> with notable exception taken to the hammer vote, which helped seal the deal. However, this is the most logical distancing attempt IMO based on
  vote placement
  alone.
  
  
  
• Second, i'll say that with only 1 scum flip and 1 town flip, it was exceedingly hard for me to draw an extensive array of conclusions largely because platfleece left her damned vote on me the entire day phase --> however, let me now remedy this properly!
  
  
  
  
• Theoretically, even without the clear from irrelephant on klick, it makes zero sense for him to be scum based off VCA and a quick iso. Therefore, the way in which the circumstances combine here make it crystal-clear he is
  town
  . First, via his second post in his ISO (233), you can see he asserted that he felt platfleece was town and he stuck by this assertion in 401 -- and guess what, scum got lynched day 1! I feel if we were dealing with Klick!scum defending platfleece as being town, then plat likely wouldn't have been such a clearly and widely supported day 1 lynch unless town just flat-out happened to luck into one the way the day phase progressed without many clear counterwagons (Espeonage and irrelephant were the clearest, and incidentally both power roles as we now know). Thus, it is reasonable to conclude now that Xander was not scum, that scum must have been on the D1 lynchwagon (I stand by my vote last day phase FWIW, even though it was erroneously aimed and that's because i've seen newbie scum not lay a vote down for the majority of a day phase before). Additionally, Klick of course discouraged the counterwagon of espeonage. Moreover, IN KLICK and PLAT'S ISO, there are zero traces of conceivable distancing attempts between the 2 in the case that Klick was to be scum -- which would only be a plausible scum strategy between 2 partners IMHO if they were both newbies at this game and had no idea how to operate. I don't take it that Klick is a newbie, as 233 clearly indicated to me in that he understood the concept of OMGUS. platfleece was a newbie as her 40 reveals.
  
  
  
  
  
• Reasons to believe Nexus is scum: first, it's absolutely provable that scum left by themselves tend to be heavily disinclined to type out long wall posts at this stage in the game, and especially ones with exceptionally well-detailed information regarding the gamestate when they are considered as a serious lynch option (this is not hard to research; there's a sort of psychological effect that comes onto them that tends to wear them thin over time --> and this would especially take effect when they are asked to prove someone is town that might be on their eventual lynch menu); the obvious exception to the psychological effect is where a crystal-clear win path is there, or when they are in a MYLO type of situation. From this, one could conclude Nexus as most plausible scum, given his reluctance to make in-depth cases, in addition to his linear focus on one player at a time each time we lynch while going back on previous town assertions/stances adopted (last time - xander (reread 208 and then consider it together with 492), and now stungun (consider 208 where he doesn't take a stance on me but asserts that he likes my post in conjunction with 518 and his eventual vote in 528 over 'wifom statements), i'm assuming next would be teacher); seems calculated to me. Seeing that he used no information to back up his townread of teacher when klick prompted him to do so seems to me to have more scum motive than town motive, because he could easily retract what he's said in claiming that 'teacher is town' without doing much else. Noting that Nexus replaced into wingedcatgirl's slot, we can see that wingedcatgirl parked her vote on platfleece as of 50, and her replacement, Nexus, inherited this vote by consequence of replacing in --> keeping a vote on one's partner while replacing out could very well be seen as a distancing attempt. 206 from Nexus is enlightening, in that he says he doesn't make wall posts as town or scum --> he doesn't see the point of it, which could thus mean if he's partners with plat he may have avoided talking about her in depth intentionally, and combined with plat's fading content at the end of D1 (she lurked more and more; --> this is evident because her second to last post was still harping on wingedcatgirl; we may have deprived of any traceable theory-related distancing attempts the two of them might have otherwise performed in the instance plat didn't end the day phase so lurky and if nexus hadn't stated reluctance to making in-depth cases about players). the obvious distancing attempt in the case they are both scum lies in the vote --> which both nexus and wingedcatgirl performed. because winged provided no reasoning for the vote, her partner in the case nexus is scum wouldn't have been placed under any imminent danger, which directly supports nexus likely being scum.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Invisibility had votes on both power roles on D1, so it's an awfully fortunate thing for us that Irrelephant cleared him, good choice irrelephant! Otherwise, I think scum could easily push a mislynch in his direction if given the proper context.
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Interestingly, this time i noticed that teacher has not had a vote laid down on him this entire game so far --> well done there! Your pro-town in appearance efforts are the direct contribution to this, if I had to pluck out the reason why. Seems that platfleece placed her first official townread on teacher -- which i could conceivably see somebody viewing that that as a distancing attempt from a newbie -- but i'm not buying that. it does slightly concern me that she followed everyone else onto that read, though, with hindsight. Still think VCA spews teacher as town, however, because of his early addition to basically all the wagons that he has joined. He was 2nd on the platfleece wagon --> with valid reasoning in his case in 166, first to vote Nexus in 202 with the motive of pressuring which is understandably a pro-town reason to vote, first on the EoD platfleece wagon in 375 because of her continual lurking out --> which is also valid reasoning. This pattern continues D2, with a vote of Xander in his first post of the day phase, 469 --> a logical follow-up from his 436 at the end of D1 where he concluded Xander must be Plat's partner. Finally, he's the second to vote Nexus today --> his first vote without an attached reasoning, but I'd say it's due to PoE in his view. It's difficult to see scum leading so many wagons like this, and trying so hardly to mislead us so consistently. It is much easier to assume that teacher is town if we take the theory of Occam's Razor into account --> which states no more assumptions should be made than necessary. If we deem someone's content to consistently have a pro-town effort, than it is easier to assume that they are pro-town, and thus they are town!

[stungun0404]

@teacher —> first off, i like that you gave us intel into your thought patterns; i imagine that shit would be difficult for scum to fake, so it seems very credible by just looking at it. i would like to give extensive coverage of my own thought patterns pursued at critical moments in this game — as i feel that could make you guys see how intrinsically town my mindset has been from the get-go.

I followed the link to your 486; minor error, but you didn’t actually vote invis or anyone in that post, so i’m confused about that. ???

going for the overall gamewinning strategy is not a bad move in essence, but you should definitely decide to favor the route that you feel captures scum, and not instead distract yourself by lynching the player you’d think would be a harder lynch to get support for later. that’s the fool’s strategy, not the one that rightfully wins the game. so, it’s best you worry about ‘taking care of business’ by forming what you feel would be a game-cinching lynchwagon on me when and if the time comes where you feel i’m scum. so, openly i’m avidly against that train-of-thought.

now basically, the starting point i wanted to make for my case is that i don’t ever “buddy” people as scum— especially not on D1 as a replace-in, like I would have had to do in this game in the event one theorizes i am scum. to be fair, i don’t have many scum games that are linkable, but there are 2 instances where i’ve replaced into scum games - and i can help you distinguish them from how i attack the game as a town replace-in!

Scum game replace-in for me: http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/ ... y-3?page=9
notice: no substantive posts regarding the towniness of any players from me on day 1; i am the user that shows up as jb23241, btw. my first post in that thread was on page 2. i mentioned this same account earlier in a post directed to invisibility, so you can rest assured it’s legit.

second scum game replace-in for me: my main account on here —> yt2980, which i posted about when asking for a replace-in for this game. this was just a couple months ago, so it is very relevant.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=27383
if you iso yt2980, you will discover that the focus of my first game analysis was very dry; i did not commit to townreading anyone - just pointing out scummy things about everyone and their mother.

so no, i’m not the type to go “look at me i’m so town (i didn’t know that acronym till i looked it up btw)” as scum via “buddying” townplayers.

now, here i am as a town replacement on my yt2980 account. notice here i immediately commit to town stances
—> indicates a way to distinguish between scum me replacing into a game and town me replacing into a game. i cut through the bs and gave townreads in my first post upon replacing in —> 97

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=27383

if you would like further proof, i could quote another scum game i played - where i’m positive the same thing happened because i don’t commit to serious townreads on day 1 as scum.

more defending my case will come later on today, but i wanted to at least get this portion out there

[stungun0404]

i’m really absorbing the content of your case right now teacher, and i feel like you’re reaching a bit too far with the “look at me i’m so town” argument; i hate to say this but it’s making me for the first time in this game truly want to reconsider your alignment

i’m going to attack your case by expanding on my argument with a full state of energy here when i get the chance, because either you are town that’s just dead wrong or you are scum that’s looking for the best lynch in me right now. you’re also misrepping the overall game-friendly impression of my content in saying that i have been sheeping people mostly in this game —> i can’t tell you how many times other players have sheeped me in this game, so i’m inclined to say we’re equal there. where’s that case at? it deserves justice—look no further than some of irrelephant’s posts which very obviously sheeped me. your case is overblown and grossly distorted, and that’s the issue that’s making me think you might be antitown right now. anyways, some of that stuff i supposably rehashed i may have consciously inherited by reading people’s posts and then forgot that person x said this or passed up on it by accident (you do realize townplayers make mistakes right?), and so i end up expanding on it in my own way once it enters my mind.

i like that you didn’t vote me, but i’m honestly just very conflicted right now regarding if you are scum, or if it’s nexus

[stungun0404]

UNVOTE: Nexus

[stungun0404]

*unconsciously inherited

[stungun0404]

the thought pattern pursued by teacher here is a clear towntell to me, personally. specifically, the theory of OMGUS’ing in advance—i could never see a scum player taking a case like that opportunistically and rather opting to keep mum about that if they observe it and push forward a case for the ‘present’ about plat being scum. not at all a scum train-of-thought.

I think teacher is definitely town

This is a fantastic point and I'm gonna sheep it. You and teacher are both town for this for sure

@nexus that's a good point, actually, especially in light of how quickly espeonage dropped it when platfleece responded

Plat, how likely do you think it is that espeonage is scum?

like right here, irrelephant even states that he’s sheeping my point. how much clearer can it get than that?

[stungun0404]

i also would never give consideration into a person’s train-of-thought when i’m scum, and that’s proveable by my meta too

[teacher]

I followed the link to your 486; minor error, but you didn’t actually vote invis or anyone in that post, so i’m confused about that. ???

I thought I had voted in 509. I didnt. The link to 486 was the read that led to that preference.

[teacher]

@Stun, the thing I cant get over is klick D2. Regardless of play or experience, I do not believe you can locktown someone off a scum lynch wagon unless you have an investigative result. You may think you can, and we will just agree to disagree and hope that the conf!towns figure it out right.

[stungun0404]

the account jb23241 —> people referenced to me as liucci in this game, however.
http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/ ... afia-day-3
http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/ ... afia-day-3

yt2980
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=75978

[stungun0404]

^ forgot to type the point i was making there—disappeared then i failed to retype it. i don’t take hard stances like saying somebody is locktown when i am scum; i deliberately avoid that. in one of my scums, you’d be more likely to see me say somebody is lockscum than that somebody is locktown. above, i’m giving you my whole linkable scum repertoire to date to work with so you can try to disprove me, if you’d like.

[stungun0404]

*in one of my scum games

[stungun0404]

teacher, back to reading your case and responding to it. to be fair it’s both MYLO and LYLO actually next day phase, so what invis said was not erroneous, and both you and invis can actually both be right

because if you Mislynch You LOse, but you’d ALSO be at a stage where you have LYnch or you LOse.

so, no i wouldn’t be “praising” invis’s “erroneous” post as you stated it, but rather embracing that it is a protown type of post coming from a player anyways, which served to further the case for invis town if anyone were to bring doubts there

[stungun0404]

*have to lynch or you lose, and that’s because of the scum nk and no doctor in this game