Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-14

One of the major motifs in John Milton's

Paradise Lost

epic blank verse poem is a series of dreams by the two protagonists, Adam and Eve. The dreams are an integral part of the narrative of innocence, temptation, loss of innocence, and the promise of salvation. It's believed that the poem was begun in about 1658 and finished in about 1663.

Lunar Martian

(2): Illwei, safebet222

Illwei

(2): unwnd, petapan

Mr Turtle

(1): quiet

quiet

(1): Mikul

petapan

(1): BBmolla

BBmolla

(1): Lunar Martian

Not Voting

(1): Mr Turtle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: December 28, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-12-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[quiet]

As of now my needs to die pool is
Quiet
Illwei
Unwnd

I'm never voting myself, and I'm never voting Illwei, but I actually think I could find an unwnd vote today (or tmmrw). I mentioned willingness for tmmrw in a previous post.

Also, I'm still trying to figure out what to do with you mikul. I know I flip green. I know in your mind I'm never flipping green, but let's say you get the vote off tonight and I flip green. What does that mean, from your perspective? What happens to the game?

Would the info from me flipping green help you solve the game more than the info from these (I think) relatively null, almost policy votes on Turtle and Lunar? Problem is, I think there is a scum in there with enough frequency that it's never worth considering that angle.

[quiet]

I would advise everyone to consider this. As he's in most people's radar.

Actually, now I'm curious.
How many people are willing to vote me today? Not necessarily first choice, just would be willing to do it. I want to know where people stand on me.

[Illwei]

Thoughts off the top of my head: Peta's vote on me feels opportunistic. or unwnd's vote.

Mikul? said suspicion first, so unwnd hopping on that might be opportunist, but also peta hopping on shortly after unwnd voted me, after I remember them saying most of the game they thought me town. Am i recalling incorrectly? this sudden mistake of me putting 3 people in the scumteam was such proof that I'm scum? when Isolated I think something like that is NAI, so putting that with a towny game shouldn't lead to the conclusion of Scum.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[petapan]

I would advise everyone to consider this. As he's in most people's radar.

Actually, now I'm curious.
How many people are willing to vote me today? Not necessarily first choice, just would be willing to do it. I want to know where people stand on me.

i would only vote you today if it were strictly necessary to achieve an elimination before deadline. i have misgivings but most of the time you read okay to me and there's nothing i would act on.

Thoughts off the top of my head: Peta's vote on me feels opportunistic. or unwnd's vote.

Mikul? said suspicion first, so unwnd hopping on that might be opportunist, but also peta hopping on shortly after unwnd voted me, after I remember them saying most of the game they thought me town. Am i recalling incorrectly? this sudden mistake of me putting 3 people in the scumteam was such proof that I'm scum? when Isolated I think something like that is NAI, so putting that with a towny game shouldn't lead to the conclusion of Scum.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

i liked one portion of a post you made, but reads change, you making that post in concert with your overly reserved approach to things caused concern for me, i got worried that lunar is too easy a vote

[quiet]

this sudden mistake of me putting 3 people in the scumteam was such proof that I'm scum?

I read your mistake as alignment polarizing, if that makes sense. There is no longer any maybe with you. To be suspicious of you is to say that you faked the mistake thing as a scumplay. To think you are town is to buy that you made the mistake, which means buying that you did not re-read the setup, and also a few other things. The only uncertainty that exists with you anymore is uncertainty between those two polar opposites, as in, you think there is some frequency with which scumIllwei makes the fake miscount play, but you aren't sure how often it happens.

I also think that, like peta said, the too easy LunarWagon fears + the LunarDelay till Thursday thing, made it feel like the illweiScum possibility was worth pressing on.

My take is confirmed town Illwei, but I can 100% understand why some people would read it the other way. Mikul, for example, refuses to believe that you didn't read the setup, given your posting habits, and so has decided the only way the mistake is possible was if you were scum faking it.

Do you feel like the mistake is polarizing like I said?

[unwnd]

Illwei's mistake is not something that I believe is telling of their alignment. I've made mistakes as scum (not even realizing it) and then had people preemptively clear me because of it.

[quiet]

To make it even more direct, if you are scum, you know exactly how many scum there are 100% of the time, because you share a thread with them. That means that for anyone to be suspicious of you as scum, they have to believe you made a fake not knowing the setup play. There is no way to be suspicious of you without also thinking you are capable of making that play.

My read on you is that you don't make that play, which makes you town.

@unwind.....

no chance. No way. Some mistakes I can understand, but not knowing how many partners are with you in the parter thread you get? When your card says you share a night kill with your partner? There is no way that you somehow forget your own role like that.

I give scumIllwei genuinely accidentally miscounts their scumPartners like, a 0.1% chance. I could entertain an argument for scumIllwei making this play, but not scumIllwei mistakenly making this play.

[quiet]

MAFIA GOON
Welcome!

You are a Mafia Goon.

You and your partner share a factional kill each night. You must choose which of you will commit the kill. You also share a factional Private Thread (PT), located here, where you may talk at any time.

You win when the Town has been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from occurring.

The game thread is here.

Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment or by posting in your PT.Welcome!You are a Mafia Goon.You and your partner share a factional kill each night. You must choose which of you will commit the kill. You also share a factional Private Thread (PT), located here, where you may talk at any time.You win when the Town has been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from occurring.The game thread is here.Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment or by posting in your PT.

Tell me how someone after confirming this role ever forgets they have 1 partner genuinely.

I'd bet the game that it's polarizing.

[unwnd]

In this situation I'd like to apply occam's razor, which is a philosophy that essentially means

The simplest explanation is likely true.

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

[Illwei]

Illwei's mistake is not something that I believe is telling of their alignment. I've made mistakes as scum (not even realizing it) and then had people preemptively clear me because of it.

Was it not something that solidified your read on me? if not then I don't like your timing. Voting me for separate reasons at just the moment that other people started expressing suspicion?

[quiet]

You submit that Illwei, as scum, while trying to say something that looks towny, forgets that they have 1 partner as the simplest answer?
Like even if they were just trying to look towny so they posted something without thinking about it, in what world would scumIllwei have forgotten about the setup? How does that happen?

I think the way simpler options are either Illwei did forget, or didn't forget. I think forgetting, in this particular case, because of the private thread and the role confirmation and the fact that it's a small game with very few roles....... forgetting is alignment indicative that Illwei is inno. I don't think scumIllwei ever can forget. This means it's either actually forgotten or they are scum and pretended.

[unwnd]

No, you're just reading too far into it and to be blunt this conversation is worthless.

[Illwei]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

[Illwei]

Quiet, you don't need to defend me so hard. I don't like that you are.

[Illwei]

I mean, I appreciate it and whatnot, but don't feel compelled to defend someone. It makes it harder to see their PoV. : )

[unwnd]

Illwei's mistake is not something that I believe is telling of their alignment. I've made mistakes as scum (not even realizing it) and then had people preemptively clear me because of it.

Was it not something that solidified your read on me? if not then I don't like your timing. Voting me for separate reasons at just the moment that other people started expressing suspicion?

It did nothing for me and continues to do nothing, I am reading you on the basis of what I already examined. You think me and Lunar are scum but I'm not sure where you came to those conclusions. When I responded that 'Yes, I was voting Lunar' you didn't press me further. Why? If we are your two scumreads, then you have one of them who has posted a decent amount and has a fair share of content, that being myself. This is the foundation of my read on you, that you are not really interested in figuring out my alignment

[quiet]

I'm not defending you, i'm sorting you. Illwei, you are either 100% scum and made a fake forget the setup play, or 100% town and genuinly forgot, and nothing in between. I am saying that I give zero credence to unwnd's theroy that you as scum could have genuenly forgot, and think that you can be sorted on the basis of that decision alone. I'm way more attached to my take on how polarized you now are than my take that you fall on the Innocent side of those two poles. I see no way that forgetting isn't alignment indicative, which simplifies my read on you considerably.

This feels like a poker read to me, when someone makes a massive overbet on the turn. They've just polarized their range. I can eliminate a ton of hands that it would never make sense to make that play with; suddenly, they are either bluffing, or they have a monster, and you get to start going back through the rest of the hand history to figure out which combos are more likely. I strongly disagree that I'm reading too far into this, and honestly, I'm probably more attached to this point than anything else I've posted this entire day.

I'll drop the point, but I guess just hard disagree with un here.

[Illwei]

VOTE: Illwei

Okay after thinking it over

Scum:
Lunar, unwnd

Unwnd has never been on the Lunar train, right? (ok I'm not going to be surprised if I'm just completely wrong about this.) and then the moment Mikul speaks his doubts about me, the immediate reaction from unwnd is to vote me, seemingly trying to get other people onto me as well. that's the only connection to lunar here.

Illwei's mistake is not something that I believe is telling of their alignment. I've made mistakes as scum (not even realizing it) and then had people preemptively clear me because of it.

Was it not something that solidified your read on me? if not then I don't like your timing. Voting me for separate reasons at just the moment that other people started expressing suspicion?

It did nothing for me and continues to do nothing, I am reading you on the basis of what I already examined. You think me and Lunar are scum but I'm not sure where you came to those conclusions. When I responded that 'Yes, I was voting Lunar' you didn't press me further. Why? If we are your two scumreads, then you have one of them who has posted a decent amount and has a fair share of content, that being myself. This is the foundation of my read on you, that you are not really interested in figuring out my alignment

These three quotes. Said in this order.

1) Unwnd votes me after I miscount. Naked vote, some explaination provided later:

Where does that leave Illwei and why is my vote on them? It's because I think they are just matching the pace and nothing else. I liked them early on and enjoyed their skepticism towards me, but it actually didn't go anywhere. The hesitance as pointed out by them asking if they vote someone does not read to me like a naturalistic townie who is worried about making the wrong choice, rather a potential scum who is trying to not endanger themselves by not making too many hasty decisions; Illwei has a guilty conscience that spills out. It doesn't fit the means of how they started the game and what seemed like a broader view of the game has become more narrow and self-focused, as evidenced by the post pretty much above me

2) I, for the first time, say my scumreads.

3) unwnd says their basis against voting me is that I expressed suspicion against them, and then didn't look further into it.

[unwnd]

3) unwnd says their basis against voting me is that I expressed suspicion against them, and then didn't look further into it.

This isn't true at all though? Again, where are you reaching these conclusions?

[safebet222]

I'm not defending you, i'm sorting you. Illwei, you are either 100% scum and made a fake forget the setup play, or 100% town and genuinly forgot, and nothing in between. I am saying that I give zero credence to unwnd's theroy that you as scum could have genuenly forgot, and think that you can be sorted on the basis of that decision alone. I'm way more attached to my take on how polarized you now are than my take that you fall on the Innocent side of those two poles. I see no way that forgetting isn't alignment indicative, which simplifies my read on you considerably.

This feels like a poker read to me, when someone makes a massive overbet on the turn. They've just polarized their range. I can eliminate a ton of hands that it would never make sense to make that play with; suddenly, they are either bluffing, or they have a monster, and you get to start going back through the rest of the hand history to figure out which combos are more likely. I strongly disagree that I'm reading too far into this, and honestly, I'm probably more attached to this point than anything else I've posted this entire day.

I'll drop the point, but I guess just hard disagree with un here.

And trying to figure out which way it is, is classic wifom.

[Illwei]

I am reading you on the basis of what I already examined.

You think me and Lunar are scum but I'm not sure where you came to those conclusions

. When I responded that 'Yes, I was voting Lunar'

you didn't press me further.

Why? If we are your two scumreads, then you have one of them who has posted a decent amount and has a fair share of content, that being myself.

This is the foundation of my read on you, that you are not really interested in figuring out my alignment

[unwnd]

I..still don't see the point you're trying to make. You might want to rephrase

Why my vote on you is something you've already acknowledged and even said 'what'd you mean by this' (#505) I opted to not tell you for selfish reasons

[quiet]

And trying to figure out which way it is, is classic wifom.

Oooh, i've been waiting for this wine in front of me thing.

I don't think wifom exactly fits here! I said i'd drop it, so I will, but I think it's a lot easier to go through Illwei's posts and try to sort between "would genuinly forget about the setup" and "would fake forgetting about the setup" then it would be to sort "is scummy" from "is towny". I feel equipped to make a judgment between the two poles I set up. So did Mikul, even though they chose the guilty pole. If I understand right, wifom is more...well, I got revealed as doc, so mafia will expect me to protect myself tonight, so they are going to shoot someone else instead, so I should protect them. Don't see how it applies here exacty.

[safebet222]

Well, have fun with that, quiet. I think you're better off trying figure out if hes town or scum another way.