Mafiascum.net

In post 544, Spangled wrote:Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

crumbs:
45’s ‘fall in crumb’, next post he links ‘fooled around and fell in love’
in 53 he basically goes, to my mind look at me look at me, I am the cop! with ‘if I find anyone tonight to guilty, I'll probably hold onto it until Day 3 just to see what kind of scramble Day 2 is.’

maybe I’m misreading 53 somewhat? or maybe it was even supposed to be ambiguous wording?, but 45 is obviously supposed to be a crumb

pedit
hey yeah thanks, I’m feeling a lot better, actually

I get that, I guess, but if you realise an idea’s right it can sometimes make you go, oh wait no all my thoughts beforehand are for nothing

In post 533, Roden wrote:I don't think a PR would be so blatant, but newbscum high on an easy mis-elim might go for it.

that was my thought, too, actually

dang you actually beat me to my revelation; I was here thinking I had something and you had it already :]

In post 544, Spangled wrote:Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

I wrote a post but it got deleted because I’m a dumbass. Im also a hypocrite because all my reads shifted because of the nk. Im aware of Roden’s post but this hammered it to me.

VOTE: Facebones

Thynhith is on thin ice.

Val and Margot are almost locked town (unrelated to Roden’s read)

Everyone else is null to me.

Galron was killed either because of misdirect or because of crumbing. Crumbing makes the most sense but it’s a stretch to read that as crumbing. I don’t see Val or Margot making that mistake given their disagreement d1 being so meta. I really don’t see anyone making that mistake. Except the one person who barely posted and isn’t used to Galrons posting habits. Thynhith Is harder to justify because I’m tired but this is my current read list.

In post 552, DArby wrote:Crumbing makes the most sense but it’s a stretch to read that as crumbing.

I thought 45 was a pretty obvious crumb, whether other posts were or not
unless you mean it’s obviously not actually crumbing because it’s so obvious? which, fair I guess

In post 552, DArby wrote:Except the one person who barely posted and isn’t used to Galrons posting habits.

That actually makes a fair degree of sense, but I worry Facebones is low-hanging fruit, here

I’d like to see your Thynhith read fleshed out, I think they’ve been pretty towny so far.

In post 535, DArby wrote:

In post 533, Roden wrote:Not a fan all the "wtf why Galron" reactions, I've done that so many times as scum.

I'm glad he wasn't pocketing me in the end but his death felt like a newbie mistake. Which yeah obviously this is a newbie game, but Galron ended the day hinting that he was going to protect Val. I don't think a PR would be so blatant, but newbscum high on an easy mis-elim might go for it.

I don't think Val is scum here as I'd expect him to kill me or Margot, since I labeled their back and forth as TvT. I think I'd actually be a pretty good kill since it would be low info and make it look like Galron had TMI'd that I was town. For that reason I'd also expect Margot to kill Val, so I don't think she's scum either.

I don't think we should focus too much on the nk right now. Just because you labeled it as TvT doesn't mean a kill of the other is the only logical conclusion. I'd think that'd place a lot of suspicion on the other actually because they had such a spat. But again, WIFOM.

What changed on your reads list?

My perspective on the TvT scenario is that if Margot or Val have one scum between them, killing the other or me makes more sense than killing Galron. I don't believe either would ever believe Galron's fake crumbs, and removing the opposing force through a NK rather than a mis-elim gets their hands a lot less dirty.

Also, I'll be honest, I initially thought one of them was bussing Cook. They were both fighting to be the one that "caught" Cook and get the town cred for voting her out, and I was low key hoping by calling them TvT that they would keep me alive as a potential pocket, when in reality I was going to hard accuse that Cook got bussed. But with her flipping town, not only was there not a bus after all, neither scum!Margot or scum!Val had any reason to keep me or the other alive.

My reads now are strong town reads on Margot and Val. I keep drifting into scum reading Face and Spangled, but despite the massive difference in post count they both occasionally post something really insightful and townie, and end up town leaning them. This leaves you and Thyn where I have the opposite problem, where I keep wanting to town read you but you'll post something that pings the hell out of me or you'll say something just feels off and misaligned with the rest of town.

In post 536, DArby wrote:Also I think it'd be weird to hide behind a kill from an argument off of one slot with one post saying it's TvT.

Not entirely true, Cook was calling them both town leans, and I don't remember anyone disagreeing with either of us.

In post 542, MargotRosa wrote:I do t trust myself to read Roden. Certainly not D2. I can maybe have a good look soon, but I lost to him recently and had very very little clue that they could even have been scum at all

There were a lot of factors in that game, but if it helps the biggest indicators for my scum meta are pretty consistent if you check my past games. I think the fact Galron is dead should help determine my alignment. He town read me all game, and you know from our last game with what happened with T3 that I don't fall for PR crumbs.

In post 551, Spangled wrote:

In post 533, Roden wrote:I don't think a PR would be so blatant, but newbscum high on an easy mis-elim might go for it.

that was my thought, too, actually

dang you actually beat me to my revelation; I was here thinking I had something and you had it already

I'll accept that we just mind melded here. I forgot about that Cop crumb actually, so you actually make a better detailed point here.

In post 544, Spangled wrote:Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

Amen. Galrons last words were, refering to me, were "Maybe you'll be protected tonight, if that's where you're going."

I am inclinded to treat with suspicion anyone who is advancing theories as to why Galron was selected as the NK without acknoledging that, given what was said in twilight, scum would be forced to consider the possibility they wouldn't be able to take a shot a me without going through Galron first. It looks he basically threw himself in the path of the bullet like a secret service agent, and I am asking myself why some slots are speculating on Galrons reads, etc, and are pretending they didn't see that he was crumbing pretty hard.

In post 554, Roden wrote:

In post 536, DArby wrote:Also I think it'd be weird to hide behind a kill from an argument off of one slot with one post saying it's TvT.

Not entirely true, Cook was calling them both town leans, and I don't remember anyone disagreeing with either of us.

It goes further than that - not only did he call us both townleans, but he explicitly called us TvT just prior to hammer (425). At the time, it pissed me off a bit because I was expecting a red flip and I thought she was mixing the wines right in front of us. Having seen I was wrong, I don't have much choice but to reconsider Margot. The fact of the matter is that I have more than one game where other multiple other slots have been telling me the tunnel I am in is TvT, and they have been right, even ones where I would have bet my kids I was dealing with scum.

As such, I think I ought put some stock in what a now-proven town SE, even one who ran a game like this one did, has to say on a spat I am having with another slot, if they declare it to be TvT. That said, I still have my suspicions about how the wagon turned yesterday - yes, it ulitmately proved to be a mislim wagon; yes, Margot was proved 'right' in that sense - but reading it back, I can't help but feel it was odd.

It was a 10 day phase. We had spent over 7 of them getting Cook into hammer-range; while there were still such a lack of content from some slots as to have multiple null reads in the lists that had been posted, Margot had apparently herself only managed to read in detail the first 5 pages in those days, and she thought this: "UNVOTE: , as we've actually got 3 days, and not the almost EoD I was led to believe it was". She thought, after we had only managed to get where we had after 7 days, that the less than 72-hours remaining was sufficent to litigate the Cook issue further without a claim and rally around another lim when (and this is the kicker to my eyes) she was openly standing in the way of the only other really viable wagon as well. I can't help that think, even though we did evenutally mislim a townie, that a scum!Margot would have been

overjoyed

to see that one turned around, have us then rush into a quick, low info mislim elsewhere, and for us to be spending today still discussing what the hell we do with Cook.

In short, I'm not quite ready to take my turn under that palanquin just yet.

The other issue I have, and this is something I need to get my head around before I can consider joining the Facebones voters, is the unresolved problems I have with Spangleds FB read.

Spangled did a good job by the end of yesterday of almost apologising his way out of his scumread with me (what shall we call that? The Canadian defense?). We have spent some time discussing what his reaction to that part of my read does or does not say about his alignment, but nobody, apart from the possible exception of Facebones himself at 255, has had anything to say on the actual issue I have with it.

I say that Spangled could not have reasonably given the read he does at 142, based on everything that FB had said until then, which was 103,109, and 111. Spangles response to that (and putting aside the way he put it for the moment), was that he says actually that he does consider it sufficient to make a strong read on, and I'm simply taking issue with the fact we have different reads.

I'm so far in the camp that it isn't enough to justify that read that I consider that response suspicious in itself, but I acknowledge that other people do look for different things, and have different thresholds, when making their reads. As such, I would feel happier if other players could at least give some indication as to where they fall on that scale.

It is important because I think that a scum!Spangled was TMIing Facebones as town there, rather than TRing his buddy, so I wouldn't support a Facebones wagon unless and until I saw a Spangled flip - I don't think I get any information from the other way around. If, one the other hand, I can be convinced that I might be wrong on this issue, and that TR was in the reasonable range of responses to that ISO, then the possibility of a town!Spangled changes that calculus.

In post 557, Val89 wrote:but he explicitly called us TvT just prior to hammer

She*. I mean Cook called Myself and Margot TvT at 425.

I need to get into the habit of proof reading these posts more carefully.

In post 557, Val89 wrote:

In post 544, Spangled wrote:Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

Amen. Galrons last words were, refering to me, were "Maybe you'll be protected tonight, if that's where you're going."

I am inclinded to treat with suspicion anyone who is advancing theories as to why Galron was selected as the NK without acknoledging that, given what was said in twilight, scum would be forced to consider the possibility they wouldn't be able to take a shot a me without going through Galron first. It looks he basically threw himself in the path of the bullet like a secret service agent, and I am asking myself why some slots are speculating on Galrons reads, etc, and are pretending they didn't see that he was crumbing pretty hard.

In post 493, Galron wrote: Maybe you'll be protected tonight, if that's where you're going.

I must admit the possibility of his last words being a crumb totally went over my head. It does make sense in hindsight, and far better explanation than newbscum or endless wifom.
"pretending they didn't see that he was crumbing pretty hard" - it may be obvious for you but not half as much for not half as experienced players.

In post 558, Val89 wrote: I'm so far in the camp that it isn't enough to justify that read that I consider that response suspicious in itself, but I acknowledge that other people do look for different things, and have different thresholds, when making their reads. As such, I would feel happier if other players could at least give some indication as to where they fall on that scale.

It is important because I think that a scum!Spangled was TMIing Facebones as town there, rather than TRing his buddy, so I wouldn't support a Facebones wagon unless and until I saw a Spangled flip - I don't think I get any information from the other way around. If, one the other hand, I can be convinced that I might be wrong on this issue, and that TR was in the reasonable range of responses to that ISO, then the possibility of a town!Spangled changes that calculus.

I'm not quite sure I understand this. I'd be in favour of limming FB today, and considering Spangled for D3. Behaviour-wise, there is a much stronger argument to be made for scum!FB and with spangled's activeness, it will be easy to pick out any scumplays. You're saying you wouldn't get any information if FB flipped first, but why is that? If he flipped green that would exonerate spangled's "dodgy" read and we'll have rid ourselves of the high chance of scum!FB. If he flipped red we'll get rid of scum, I'm not sure what we have to lose here.

In post 552, DArby wrote: Thynhith is on thin ice.

I'm on thin ice, for some reason..

In post 554, Roden wrote: This leaves you and Thyn where I have the opposite problem, where I keep wanting to town read you but you'll post something that pings the hell out of me or you'll say something just feels off and misaligned with the rest of town.

Hey, at least I'm working my way towards a townread
did I ping the hell out of you just now?

In post 558, Val89 wrote: I'm so far in the camp that it isn't enough to justify that read that I consider that response suspicious in itself, but I acknowledge that other people do look for different things, and have different thresholds, when making their reads. As such, I would feel happier if other players could at least give some indication as to where they fall on that scale.

It is important because I think that a scum!Spangled was TMIing Facebones as town there, rather than TRing his buddy, so I wouldn't support a Facebones wagon unless and until I saw a Spangled flip - I don't think I get any information from the other way around. If, one the other hand, I can be convinced that I might be wrong on this issue, and that TR was in the reasonable range of responses to that ISO, then the possibility of a town!Spangled changes that calculus.

EBWOP
For what it's worth, at the time Spangled townread FB, he was null for me. I believe I said as much. Since, I'd consider him a scumlean

In post 561, Thynhith wrote:You're saying you wouldn't get any information if FB flipped first, but why is that? If he flipped green that would exonerate spangled's "dodgy" read

Except that it wouldn't, that's my whole point. The 'dodigness' of the read isn't that it's a townread, its the fact it was such a strong townread given at the time it was. I am speculating that Spangled was able to say "yeah, FB is really towny" at the point he did because he knows for a fact that FB is town. If Facebones flips town today, how does that help me? I would have to assume I am right about that, and still push Spangled. If he flips Red, I would still be thinking "hmmm...OK, what's going on with that read by Spangled then?". I would still be pushing Spangled regardless of Facebones flip.

If on the other hand, Spangled were to flip green, I would say "Oh, ok, so the read on Facebones wasn't predicated on him knowing something we didn't, so I can consider the fact that Spangled was just straight up wrong, and look at Facebones independantly."; if Spangled flipped red, I would be saying to myself "Right, that makes Facebones likley town then", and look elsewhere. I get something from a Spangled flip, whereas I don't think a Facebones flip would affect how I look at Spangled because either flip could still point to a scum!Spangled.

In post 563, Thynhith wrote:For what it's worth, at the time Spangled townread FB, he was null for me. I believe I said as much. Since, I'd consider him a scumlean

I think this demonstrates the misunderstanding we are having. I'm not actually interested if everyone elses reads on Facebones match Spangled.

Put it this way. Imagine you are in the outside looking in, and I give you this iso:



Can you give a read on that player? If you can, how confident can you possibly be about that read?

I'm not intrested in what that read is; I just want to know if people consider giving a strong read on that basis is inside the range of reasonable responses to that ISO, without having additional pre-known information about the alignment of that player. I've given my view - that is isn't possible to give a confident read on that basis. Spangled has defended that read at 323 and avers that it is. If players now tell me, "Yeah, Val, I can see why Spangled could reasonably hold that read, even if I or you don't agree with it", then I would be happier supporting a Facebones wagon, but currently I think a scum!Spangled means Facebones is much more likley to be town, lack of content aside.

Ah that makes sense then. If you put it that way, I'd probably have a weak read on FB atp. I don't agree that this is lim-worthy behaviour tho. I can see where spangled is coming from, in that he had a strong first impression of FB, within the bounds of reasonable play style. Still stand by preferring to lim Facebones based on his greater (de)merit, compared to spangled's.

In post 550, Spangled wrote:

In post 544, Spangled wrote:Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

crumbs:
45’s ‘fall in crumb’, next post he links ‘fooled around and fell in love’
in 53 he basically goes, to my mind look at me look at me, I am the cop! with ‘if I find anyone tonight to guilty, I'll probably hold onto it until Day 3 just to see what kind of scramble Day 2 is.’

maybe I’m misreading 53 somewhat? or maybe it was even supposed to be ambiguous wording?, but 45 is obviously supposed to be a crumb

See, I suppose this is where I differ from this school of thought that Galron was crumbing. This is the same slot that voted for the same person twice in a row, on accident.

The same person who Val pointed out said:

In post 298, Val89 wrote:

In post 176, Galron wrote:I'm interested in the fluff:substance ratio.

In post 239, Galron wrote:wrt to Spangled, whoever pointed out fluff to substance ratio got me thinking

The same person who just simply did not decide to read, counter, or contribute to anything that was being said during the early Cook talks because of "laziness" (94)

I mean this with the least disrespect possible but the idea of Galron being a power role did not cross my mind once. All crumbs are irrelevant from an unreliable poster.

In post 554, Roden wrote:

In post 535, DArby wrote:

In post 533, Roden wrote:Not a fan all the "wtf why Galron" reactions, I've done that so many times as scum.

I'm glad he wasn't pocketing me in the end but his death felt like a newbie mistake. Which yeah obviously this is a newbie game, but Galron ended the day hinting that he was going to protect Val. I don't think a PR would be so blatant, but newbscum high on an easy mis-elim might go for it.

I don't think Val is scum here as I'd expect him to kill me or Margot, since I labeled their back and forth as TvT. I think I'd actually be a pretty good kill since it would be low info and make it look like Galron had TMI'd that I was town. For that reason I'd also expect Margot to kill Val, so I don't think she's scum either.

I don't think we should focus too much on the nk right now. Just because you labeled it as TvT doesn't mean a kill of the other is the only logical conclusion. I'd think that'd place a lot of suspicion on the other actually because they had such a spat. But again, WIFOM.

What changed on your reads list?

My perspective on the TvT scenario is that if Margot or Val have one scum between them, killing the other or me makes more sense than killing Galron. I don't believe either would ever believe Galron's fake crumbs, and removing the opposing force through a NK rather than a mis-elim gets their hands a lot less dirty.

Also, I'll be honest, I initially thought one of them was bussing Cook. They were both fighting to be the one that "caught" Cook and get the town cred for voting her out, and I was low key hoping by calling them TvT that they would keep me alive as a potential pocket, when in reality I was going to hard accuse that Cook got bussed. But with her flipping town, not only was there not a bus after all, neither scum!Margot or scum!Val had any reason to keep me or the other alive.

My reads now are strong town reads on Margot and Val. I keep drifting into scum reading Face and Spangled, but despite the massive difference in post count they both occasionally post something really insightful and townie, and end up town leaning them. This leaves you and Thyn where I have the opposite problem, where I keep wanting to town read you but you'll post something that pings the hell out of me or you'll say something just feels off and misaligned with the rest of town.

In post 536, DArby wrote:Also I think it'd be weird to hide behind a kill from an argument off of one slot with one post saying it's TvT.

Not entirely true, Cook was calling them both town leans, and I don't remember anyone disagreeing with either of us.

Sure it might make more sense, but say Val was scum between the two. Do you honestly expect me to believe not only did Val survive n1 but the person giving him pushback dies and it wouldn't be highly suspicious to enough people? Same vice versa. Killing you and getting away with it, I can see. You'd been my nk if I was scum so either one of them could have gotten away with it for me.

Despite Cook having them as town leans you were the only one to explicitly say this was TvT and that's a bigger deal than giving them TL's.

In post 561, Thynhith wrote:

In post 558, Val89 wrote: I'm so far in the camp that it isn't enough to justify that read that I consider that response suspicious in itself, but I acknowledge that other people do look for different things, and have different thresholds, when making their reads. As such, I would feel happier if other players could at least give some indication as to where they fall on that scale.

It is important because I think that a scum!Spangled was TMIing Facebones as town there, rather than TRing his buddy, so I wouldn't support a Facebones wagon unless and until I saw a Spangled flip - I don't think I get any information from the other way around. If, one the other hand, I can be convinced that I might be wrong on this issue, and that TR was in the reasonable range of responses to that ISO, then the possibility of a town!Spangled changes that calculus.

I'm not quite sure I understand this. I'd be in favour of limming FB today, and considering Spangled for D3. Behaviour-wise, there is a much stronger argument to be made for scum!FB and with spangled's activeness, it will be easy to pick out any scumplays. You're saying you wouldn't get any information if FB flipped first, but why is that? If he flipped green that would exonerate spangled's "dodgy" read and we'll have rid ourselves of the high chance of scum!FB. If he flipped red we'll get rid of scum, I'm not sure what we have to lose here.

You are no longer on thin ice.

For now, anyway.

Actually sleeping on it, FB and Spangled make more sense than FB and Thynhith.

Thynhith was on thin ice as a placeholder of who could also make that mistake as scum!FB's partner. I think it's more likely that Spangled is putting his cards on the table and is, ironically, crumbing of his logic, than Thynhith is of playing dumb.

I was blinded by hearing multiple people say it that it didn't cross my mind how they were saying it.

In post 567, DArby wrote:Despite Cook having them as town leans you were the only one to explicitly say this was TvT

I've already pointed out that this isn't true.

In post 569, DArby wrote:I was blinded by hearing multiple people say it that it didn't cross my mind how they were saying it.

I am confused. What is the "it", here?

In post 570, Val89 wrote:

In post 567, DArby wrote:Despite Cook having them as town leans you were the only one to explicitly say this was TvT

I've already pointed out that this isn't true.

In post 569, DArby wrote:I was blinded by hearing multiple people say it that it didn't cross my mind how they were saying it.

I am confused. What is the "it", here?

I’m so sorry I must have missed that. Can you point me to that post?

By it I mean nk’ing Galron for crumbing

557. I mistyped, which may have confused, but I corrected at 559.

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