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Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:11 am
by Menalque
In post 5644, Bell wrote:I’m going to though and then I’m probably following Mena’s elimination list to the letter if they flip town.
This is okay with me, I'd obviously prefer not to be limmed and I don't think it's necessary, but I can live with it.
If I am going that way though, then I'd like to be as sure as possible on who's town for the remaining days, because for instance I'm currently not sure if that initial list is the same one I'd like to stick to. I want to talk to CSF, GL, and enchant more. I feel happier about you, I think.
I would be shocked if dwlee or Andy are maf. And I want to talk about pooky in case it's also not him. Town should win this even with my mislim, but I don't want to leave a pool to be followed if it might lead to turbolimming into elo.
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:13 am
by Menalque
yes, there's nowhere else that town have made the same mista-
also, yes, I do have a NA tonight but it seems redundant probably? the only way to maybe get use out of it would be to say I'm going to 50/50 toss a coin between targeting the scummiest player and the towniest one, making scum either risk limming themselves by killing me or going for a double whammy
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:14 am
by Menalque
for the last post: inb4 tmi, I mean that if CSF town then obviously from her own perspective town just made the same mistake
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:15 am
by Menalque
In post 5645, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:- you didn't quote the posts where I really started thinking Andres was scum. I basically saw something shinier and moved there.
yeah, I know, but I guess I just found it odd that you sort of completely let the thread drop only to then vote alongside him? I'll reread again though
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:17 am
by Cat Scratch Fever
yeah that was the "simple explanation" I referenced in [post]5647[/pos] if you are town because, clearly, a lot of people (including the mod hello Datisi) mix those two words up
but not a lot thought we could actually nom the defuser, which is a big difference
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:17 am
by Menalque
I mean, I still think you're significantly more likely town than not CSF, but I want to work out any weird shit from you before I bin you with dwlee and Andy and start trying to sort between the other three
Bell will get the same thing if I find anything that seems off when I go through his ISO but I feel better from talking to him today, even if I disagree with his reasoning for wanting my lim first
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:19 am
by Menalque
I think I did mean bomb defuser but I'm not sure
I mostly meant "I want to be picked to do stuff with the bomb because it seems like a really cool bit of the setup to me"
honestly biggest regret this game is not even that I prob get limmed for bad optics around scum, but not looking towny enough to get picked to do bomb stuff on other nights. I'm gutted
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:20 am
by Cat Scratch Fever
I also felt VPB wasn't going anywhere as a wagon and wanted to go elsewhere
I think I also voted fireisred at one point out of sheer boredom lol
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:26 am
by Menalque
CSF, not asking you to out but just want to make sure I'm not going crazy -- you are an alt of someone I know, right?
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:26 am
by Menalque
why not try to get it going yourself?
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:37 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 5608, Dwlee99 wrote:I feel like the only person who would kill Cephrir here is Menalque. Does anyone have a refutation of that?
I'm growing more and more tempted to switch to Enchant
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:38 am
by GuiltyLion
whoops, that is an old post I was thinking about replying to yesterday but then didn't
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:48 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 5633, Menalque wrote:I'm really confused by what scum were doing on N2
so scum's swapping role hasn't flipped yet
why swap misty into the experts is what I'm not getting, if they were already going to swap VPB into the defuser role? was it to give misty more towncred short term after VPB doesn't blow up? because that seems wildly short sighted given that they then used VPB to blow up andres -- why not put misty in again there
yeah this honestly still makes very little sense to me, it's not at all how I would have played it myself. I speculated on it in the hood last night and I think the plan was to either have:
a) misty bus VPB and make herself look townier that way
or
b) misty help boost consensus on town!VPB to secure him another defuse
Bell and I both expressed early townreads on Baltar and said we would give correct info, at which point Misty did a little dog and pony show of 'sorting' Baltar before eventually giving a solve not too long before deadline. so I think had Bell or I indicated more suspicion, they probably would have gone a lot harder on a bussing approach between the two. but overall it's still kinda weird since I don't think scum really had a chance at the 4 defuse win with the way they went about it
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:52 am
by GuiltyLion
UNVOTE:
I'm want to engage tryhard mode and reread a lot of D1/D2/D3 again. Stay tuned for that today/tonight in between bouts of work
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:57 am
by GuiltyLion
but yeah Menalque much like you are constantly asking about Pooky, I would really love like a truly convincing case from somebody why Andante is town. The best point in her favor is all the fake JOAT claim stuff, she claimed accurate results and used it to help town lim scum rather than secure a miselim so I get the idea that it's ~ probably ~ ++town, but I don't think it's impossible to come from scum?
The main thing holding me back is I feel like her read on Dwlee pivoted from scum to town very suddenly, she claimed it was a result that caused this - which we now know it wasn't - and then all her post-N4 VPB interactions looked to me like distancing where her primary goal was to look unaligned with him. A lot of her early game reads were very wack to me and she has been constantly trying to throw suspicion on me throughout the game
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:02 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 4204, Andante wrote: In post 4201, Andante wrote:VOTE: Dwlee
dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both
and I need Dwlee flipped before Mistyx cause there's a strong thing catboi pointed out that they're not partners, which I'd agree with
In post 4201, Andante wrote:VOTE: Dwlee
dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both
In post 4238, Andante wrote:my reads change too much for me to be town, and at this point no one even thinks I have a decent read.
Dwlee for sure has to go tomorrow after this flips town
In post 4268, Andante wrote:I've decided I'm not gonna encourage the likely town lim, and instead I'll be voting mafia, also yeah, asking me for a claim here? lmao right... not gonna happen
In post 4279, Andante wrote:no. I TR nothing about Dwlee. Dwlee has only significantly changed their playstyle after pooky and I were like "dwlee has done 0 solving"
These are all the Andante posts on Dwlee/Strange immediately prior to Strange flip
then the next day, she comes in voting VPB and saying she has a town result on Dwlee
now that we know she's a VT
Why did her read change??????
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:31 am
by Cat Scratch Fever
In post 5658, Menalque wrote:CSF, not asking you to out but just want to make sure I'm not going crazy -- you are an alt of someone I know, right?
Yes but I haven't played on my main in years. This kitty account is my main now :3
I think I did try ;_;
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:54 am
by Menalque
In post 5660, GuiltyLion wrote: In post 5608, Dwlee99 wrote:I feel like the only person who would kill Cephrir here is Menalque. Does anyone have a refutation of that?
I'm growing more and more tempted to switch to Enchant
what were you thinking of saying to this btw?
In post 5664, GuiltyLion wrote:but yeah Menalque much like you are constantly asking about Pooky, I would really love like a truly convincing case from somebody why Andante is town. The best point in her favor is all the fake JOAT claim stuff, she claimed accurate results and used it to help town lim scum rather than secure a miselim so I get the idea that it's ~ probably ~ ++town, but I don't think it's impossible to come from scum?
The main thing holding me back is I feel like her read on Dwlee pivoted from scum to town very suddenly, she claimed it was a result that caused this - which we now know it wasn't - and then all her post-N4 VPB interactions looked to me like distancing where her primary goal was to look unaligned with him. A lot of her early game reads were very wack to me and she has been constantly trying to throw suspicion on me throughout the game
Andy is on the list, but I want to go through Bell's posting first
I think that aside from the JOAT thing, stock should be put into several flipped town (greeting, catboi, andres) who I think have generally good reads all being very sure of Andy town. my reads go up and down, and Andy is someone I struggle to be super confident on from the little I have played with her (she gives me the same kinda chaos vibe that Noraa always would, which I sometimes want to just kill but that's mostly because I struggle with sorting it) and so I want to outsource this somewhat to those people who were very confident in it
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:01 am
by Menalque
I mean, technically everyone is on the list, but Andy and dwlee have got the lowest priority
also, just in terms of numbers:
8 alive today. scum probably have another nk by now? so let's say that the nk goes through. that means 6 tomorrow, maybe 5 if like, GL is town but gets made defuser because that's probably too risky to allow.
that means only 2 more lims before endgame I think, after today? so the key from today is trying to get a pool of 3 that is as sure as possible to contain the final scum
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:03 am
by Menalque
In post 5665, GuiltyLion wrote: In post 4204, Andante wrote: In post 4201, Andante wrote:VOTE: Dwlee
dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both
and I need Dwlee flipped before Mistyx cause there's a strong thing catboi pointed out that they're not partners, which I'd agree with
In post 4201, Andante wrote:VOTE: Dwlee
dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both
In post 4238, Andante wrote:my reads change too much for me to be town, and at this point no one even thinks I have a decent read.
Dwlee for sure has to go tomorrow after this flips town
In post 4268, Andante wrote:I've decided I'm not gonna encourage the likely town lim, and instead I'll be voting mafia, also yeah, asking me for a claim here? lmao right... not gonna happen
In post 4279, Andante wrote:no. I TR nothing about Dwlee. Dwlee has only significantly changed their playstyle after pooky and I were like "dwlee has done 0 solving"
These are all the Andante posts on Dwlee/Strange immediately prior to Strange flip
then the next day, she comes in voting VPB and saying she has a town result on Dwlee
now that we know she's a VT
Why did her read change??????
hm. okay, I guess I would like Andy to expand on this, yeah
In post 5666, Cat Scratch Fever wrote: In post 5658, Menalque wrote:CSF, not asking you to out but just want to make sure I'm not going crazy -- you are an alt of someone I know, right?
Yes but I haven't played on my main in years. This kitty account is my main now :3
I think I did try ;_;
okay, thank god I'm not going crazy. I think I did think you were someone who you're not for a sec, tho
and for the second thing... um, would you mind showing me the posts where you think you did this? because I don't really see it from your ISO
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:39 am
by Bell
I don’t really think Andante is good enough scum to fake defensiveness about their decisions.
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:44 am
by Menalque
Bell, could you break down what Titus' argument for andante!scum was? in as much detail as possible please
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:45 am
by Bell
Later, at work.
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:45 am
by Menalque
Sure, we have time
Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:03 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 5670, Bell wrote:I don’t really think Andante is good enough scum to fake defensiveness about their decisions.
I don't understand what this means? scum!Andante in my experience from Holiday Dance was very defensive and prone to AtE