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Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:31 am
by Solstice
In post 5682, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:For the record, I feel Noraa's town meta is something that scum can imitate without too much difficulty especially with the help of a good scum player (Flavor Leaf) and at least during the early game.
No.
In post 5683, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:Blatant AtE, and calling her narrative a fanfiction is very far from the truth.
Every post mastina has made on us being scum has been confbiased as hell. Im about to review her cases on Toog, BM, and Dunn to see if there is a pattern.
[I disagree, but perhaps you could show me why rather than tell me, so I'll wait and see]

[Also, if you're calling her case confirm biased, aren't you implying she's town? I'm confused which it is -- does it ping you as scummy, or does she seem confirm biased on it?]
In post 5697, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5696, Solstice wrote:[that is genuinely what you got out of 5654?]
not exactly but that post had a lot of "maybe flavor picked this one but then replaced this one"
"and then this one was replaced by this one"
"he had to choose a hydra"
and it was confusing. if u wanna break down that post in ur own words, I can give it a go again.
[I suppose i just found it surprising you interpreted it as "FL picking randomly". I don't necessarily think FL focused on the upper half of the playerlist or any WIFOM like that, but mastina thinking in terms of "Who would replace X?" was interesting to think about]

~Morning

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:33 am
by Solstice
In post 5695, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5692, Solstice wrote:[Why?]
its shady. Like it feels like "its fine if you think I'm scum but by this logic someone else is scummier"

-nornor
[To be fair, you come off as much worse than mastina from the quickhammer, so if we are to take it as genuine, you would be confirmed scum -- whereas mastina is still more of a "maybe"]

~Morning

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:30 am
by Polar Bear Express
In post 5675, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5659, mastina wrote:(Pichu also 'crumbed to Gloria his role, and then died that night, not part of my case, butstill.)
Image
I would still love to know exactly what this hypothetical crumb even is. I would even more like to understand in what world putting scum at E-1 and making that blatantly obvious is scumly. Further and unless something is somehow getting fucking lost in translation: What part of my not wanting to be the game-losing misfade and preferring to be miselimed today since that seems to be the only way to convince people we’re town is going over people’s heads here? Apparently, people don’t understand that I’m dead serious about that but hey that’s just scum!AtE. Well there’s a really super effective way to test that out. So why is no one interested in doing that?

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:49 am
by Polar Bear Express
In post 5681, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:That leaves Spiffeh and me. You can towncase the other two slots you are townreading for a start. That will be more useful than towncasing yourself.
Poe is {Spiff, Mastina, Ircher}
Solstice is as close to completely clear as we can get.

Gloria and I might divi it up and write a case for all the possibilities later this week.

-nornor
I’d probably flip Ircher before Mastina since I know for a fact these ridiculous fanfiction type of analysis is something she can also do as town. that’s why I’m saying I NIA read that. What’s bizarre to me is Mastina’s 180 and now Ircher’s jumped on it. Even Solstice who I would expect to know better is buying into to it. And for God knows what reason, my insisting that if it’s not beyond obvious how we’re soft towncleared from DEB’s hammer because I know that’s not what FL would do here and I even posted evidence from a different game why scumreading us for that is an extremely bad take and all I get is, oh how are you being different here than Bell? Because I’m willing to be flipped to prove I’m not lying and no, we shouldn’t be tr for that but considering no one is bothering to debunk that like every single one of my other arguments and still call that AtE completely blows my mind.

So at least one of the people pushing this bs obviously has to be scum here since and the reason I keep saying we’ll lose is because we’re likely getting misfaded irrespective of what Spiffeh flips but apparently I’m apparently too dumb to be understanding this. :roll:

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 am
by Ircher
In post 5702, Polar Bear Express wrote:Apparently, people don’t understand that I’m dead serious about that but hey that’s just scum!AtE. Well there’s a really super effective way to test that out. So why is no one interested in doing that?
Ultimately, the masons decide the lim. Maybe you missed the part where they said, "Don't vote."

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:22 am
by Ircher
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:Mastina since I know for a fact these ridiculous fanfiction type of analysis is something she can also do as town. that’s why I’m saying I NIA read that.
Your previous posts made it seem you like you were scum reading mastina for that.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:What’s bizarre to me is Mastina’s 180 and now Ircher’s jumped on it. Even Solstice who I would expect to know better is buying into to it.
If the 180 you are referring to is our reads on you, I think you really need to consider the fact that the poe pool is only five people now. Most of the people we thought were scum earlier have either flipped already or are masons. Reads change with time as new evidence and new information arises. It may seem like a sudden change, and it is a sudden change, but it's a change backed in reevaluating the game state based on the info we have now, not the info we previously had.

I've seen some town-indicative stuff from your slot. I really did think the voting dissonance on Day 2 was a decent town indicator for your slot, and I still do. But you have to understand that from my perspective, both mastina and Solstice are stronger town reads. mastina has played an exceptionally good game if she is scum, and I did look at the game she linked, and she didn't seem too similar here. She also would have had to hard bus /both/ Bell and DEB, and I don't find that rather likely. Solstice is in a (at least imho) mechanically cleared situation, and while their play may not seem as strongly as town, it's still town enough overall that it doesn't make me raise eyebrows at the slot/become paranoid that I'm reading the setup correctly. I am town from my perspective. That leaves Spiffeh and you as the scum team by process of elimination.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:my insisting that if it’s not beyond obvious how we’re soft towncleared from DEB’s hammer
This isn't obvious, and nor is it a soft clear. Like, we cannot all be scum thinking it isn't a soft clear. Arguments based on what Flavor Leaf would or would not instruct the scum team to do are not super useful because neither situation occurs infrequently enough to be statistically significant.

You can make conjectures based on what scum would or would not do, but you have to acknowledge that they are mainly conjectures. That is, there's a reasonable chance that your conjecture is wrong and something else actually happened.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:I even posted evidence from a different game why scumreading us for that is an extremely bad take
A single game is an anecdote, not evidence. There are so many other variables you have to account for like the scum team in that game, the town in that game, the current game state, and so much more. To make any significant statement that can be applied broadly, you need to get a sufficient sample size. If you linked 20 games to back up your point, that would be far more meaningful. A single game is hardly evidence though, especially when it doesn't seem like the behavior you are claiming soft clears you is unusual for any scum player.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:all I get is, oh how are you being different here than Bell?
Have you stopped for a second and considered the fact that we /don't/ know your alignment? It's easy to think "I'm obviously town" when you /know/ you are town, but to outsiders, that isn't nearly as apparent.

Take a look back at what Bell did. Please tell me how your behavior is significantly different from what Bell did after pichu gave his case.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:Because I’m willing to be flipped to prove I’m not lying
Actions speak louder than words. Willingness to do is not the same as actually going through with it. Why do you think people use AtE on the site? Why do people make statements like this? They do it because they know it has a good chance of working. They do it because they can claim whatever, but it is much harder to actually do things that show they are town.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:no, we shouldn’t be tr for that
Okay, then what's your point? Like, why would you bring it up unless you are trying to use it to sell us that you are town here?
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:considering no one is bothering to debunk that like every single one of my other arguments and still call that AtE completely blows my mind.
Even if we call it something else, the point remains the same. Why are you spending so much time talking about why you are soft cleared when you could be using it to generate reads and solving? You should realize that by this point, continuing to argue that you are soft cleared or that you are town is going to go nowhere. All it does is waste space and clutter the thread. Thus, if you are town, why haven't you attempted a different strategy? Why haven't you tried to /show/ you are town by being town, rather than merely argue that you are town?

I understand that you are a newer player, Gloria. Your viewpoint and strategy here is quite typical of the newer and more inexperienced players. But what you need to realize is that what may seem obvious to you is not obvious to others, and that not everything is black and white. When people express a scum read on you, they aren't doing it because they are trying to pick on you, they do it because based on /their/ knowledge, you are the most likely scum. And while it may seem that we have made up our minds, the answer is we haven't. For if the game had decided already, we wouldn't couldn't discussing. We would go forth with what we have collectively decided.

Too often, newer players focus too much on defending themselves when really they should focus on finding scum and helping town's win condition. Thus, if you are town, stop focusing on yourself. Start focusing on the other people in this game. Elaborate on your town reads and scum reads, but don't focus on yourself. Show that you are town by doing, not by merely arguing such.

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:17 pm
by Solstice
[Misty was curious who wanted DEB rather than Bell on D2, considering it'd have been pretty beneficial for scum to kill off their surprise Supersaint on that day + have Bell look better from it.]

[From my memory, nobody really prefered DEB up until Pooky had that theory about scum rolecopping Bell and in reality DEB was scum. So i went digging around that area]

Spoiler: The End of D2
[ - Pooky's theory for DEB!scum + Bell!town]
[ - Dunn decides to vote DEB to help Pooky]
[ - Spiffeh says he will vote DEB but only if Pooky removes him and Polarbears from the vig pool.]
[ - Spiffeh is super confused on DEB/Bell, says "can't we just kill them both somehow?"]
[ - Pichu thinks it'd be funny if DEB is scum too, but doesn't believe it]

[ - Gloria thinks DEB is possibly town, and thinks his slot is resolvable]
[ - Gloria finds Bell scummy, as he is not playing like he did in a town game of his]
[ - Gloria unvotes Bell as a result of Pooky's defense to give him a second chance]

[ - Murdercatto is now advocating for DEB first as well]

[ - mastina thinks both DEB/Bell are scum]

[ - Noraa believes that Bell is obvscum, 100% confirmed scum. However, she suggests that today we should get rid of Bell's buddies who are desperately trying to save him. She then claims Murder has singlehandedly started almost every Bell CW, and votes for him]
[ - In response to Solstice saying that isn't remotely true, Noraa says she did it because she was under the impression that Bell's wagon was dying]
[ - Noraa hops back on Bell as soon as I put him to X-2]

[ - While reviewing, Ircher comments that he doesn't buy Pooky's case for DEB being scum over Bell

[Something that we found interesting -- who out of the four of these players was willing to kill DEB over Bell? Spiffeh and Polarbears.]

- [Spiffeh was pretty detached from giving reads on the two of them -- after all, he didn't really fully understand the mechanics behind it, and he was the first to admit he was confused about it. When Pooky proposes we take out DEB first, Spiffeh says, "Sure! (but only if you remove Polar and I from the vig pool)".]

- [Polarbears does not explicitly join the DEB train as Dunn/Murder do, however, Gloria relents on Bell as a result of this defense of Bell by Pooky. She does, however, make sure it is clear that she still isn't seeing town!Bell, but she is willing to give him another chance due to Pooky.]

- [Ircher, while reviewing, doesn't see the scum motivation for scum!DEB to CC town!Bell, so he discards it. This is what I did at the time as well]

- [Mastina is currently feeling them both being scum, but definitely at least one. I don't think she directly acknowledges Pooky's case, but she continues to call out Bell for being scummy by avoiding making content and etc so it is clear who she prefers.]

[Coincidence? Possibly, I do somewhat doubt that scum were thinking "Oh shit here's our chance to get the Supersaint activated and save Bell!" -- However, they were certainly the only two players standing among us who left the possibility of Pooky swapping it to DEB open.]

~Morning

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:19 pm
by Solstice
[tangent on noraa ----]

[i also just wanna talk about Noraa's vote swap to Murder as well as what comes after. Now this post is bordering on insanity which we already covered when it was made, but I'll summarize her points:]

[A.) Bell is obvscum, there is no way he isn't scum and everyone who thinks otherwise is blatantly obstructing our ability to win. (Noraa is under the impression that) his wagon has been broken to pieces.]
[B.) Murdercatto is responsible for every CW to Bell. He is an incredibly obvious buddy to Bell.]
[C.) We never eliminate outside of Bell/Murder, there is a guaranteed at least 1 scum in there, maybe 2.]
[D.) I vote Murdercat. This puts Murder to 1 vote while Bell is at around 3.]

[Noraa expresses afterwards that she had lost all hope in the Bell wagon ever going through, as it was at E-1 for days and never hammered.]

[This is an absolutely crazy take and I forgot about it up until Misty and I reviewed this area.]

[A.) How Noraa was under the impression that Bell could never have been eliminated is totally beyond me. The only slot that had unvoted Bell is Gloria 2 pages back.]
[B.) How do you vote someone other than the confirmed scum in your eyes, who has about 3 votes. Murdercatto is not confirmed scum to Noraa nor Gloria and has 0 votes. Noraa thinks there is 1-2 scum between them, which conflicts with how she is scumreading Murder for WKing Bell (?)
[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]

[So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that. She mentions afterwards that Gloria told her the Bell wagon fell apart, and that is why she reacted in this way. Maybe true -- however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum]

[Was she was trying (along with Gloria's unvote on Bell to give him a second chance and Spiffeh's willingness to vote DEB) to make the switch off Bell to another wagon more possible? Idk, maybe. It's a wild post. i think there was very little chance of success that the Bell wagon fizzles --
but was she under the impression that there was?
Did she actually think the Bell wagon was dying, so that was her attempt to go off and do something vanity that it looks like she believes in? Which gives a greater chance for Pooky's plan going through. We definitely know that Gloria was open to it, at least.]

~Morning

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:37 pm
by Ircher
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[A.) How Noraa was under the impression that Bell could never have been eliminated is totally beyond me. The only slot that had unvoted Bell is Gloria 2 pages back.]
Noraa explicitly cites Gloria as the basis for this take. The question still remains I guess, but I get the feeling that Gloria might have exaggerated things since there seemed to be some voting dissonance between them Day 2.
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[B.) How do you vote someone other than the confirmed scum in your eyes, who has about 3 votes. Murdercatto is not confirmed scum to Noraa nor Gloria and has 0 votes. Noraa thinks there is 1-2 scum between them, which conflicts with how she is scumreading Murder for WKing Bell (?)
To play Devid's Advocate: I think this aspect of the post follows rather easily if you assume Noraa genuinely believes part a (that Bell isn't going to be limmed). Noraa thus votes the slot they scum read the second most since it seems to her that her first pick isn't an option.
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]
Eh, I think it kind of makes sense, all things considered. If a player sits around E-1 all day, but no one gives intent to hammer, it's very possible will get distracted later in the day and go elsewhere. Having only one wagon was an indicator of stagnation, and when games stagnate, things can go awry. I don't think I'm doing a good job explaining my viewpoint here, but basically, Noraa's impression that Bell is "getting away" is a game state read based on the game's momentum, which was slowing down and not really progressing.
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that.
I actually don't find this particularly condemning.
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum
It might not make sense, but people are not (as a general rule) logical beings. They do irrational things based on an incorrect or unreasonable understanding of reality.

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:08 pm
by Solstice
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]
Eh, I think it kind of makes sense, all things considered. If a player sits around E-1 all day, but no one gives intent to hammer, it's very possible will get distracted later in the day and go elsewhere. Having only one wagon was an indicator of stagnation, and when games stagnate, things can go awry. I don't think I'm doing a good job explaining my viewpoint here, but basically, Noraa's impression that Bell is "getting away" is a game state read based on the game's momentum, which was slowing down and not really progressing.
[If Noraa was frustrated that we were getting distracted and going elsewhere, then what is the purpose behind trying to get us to go elsewhere?]
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that.
I actually don't find this particularly condemning.
[Yeah I dont know if that's explicitly scummy for her exactly but i think it is definitely true.]
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum
It might not make sense, but people are not (as a general rule) logical beings. They do irrational things based on an incorrect or unreasonable understanding of reality.
[I agree that it being illogical is not enough to consider it as scummy -- I had previously written it off entirely based on that reasoning. at the moment, I do see starting a random vanity wagon that Noraa seems to believe in (combined with Gloria giving Bell a second chance) as particularly convenient to scum that want to leave open the possibility that momentum sways to DEB. And during this time, Gloria and Noraa both stress that they still believe Bell is scum or at least scummy, which just makes it more odd]

[while they call him scummy, i would say more of their time is shading Toog/Murdercatto than it is Bell, though. Like Noraa is for certain that Bell is scum pretty much completely out of nowhere from what i can tell. I'm rambing now but i guess i would seriously expect Noraa to do more to push who she is certain is scum rather than try and go somewhere that she isn't sure is scum + seems to only think is scum because he's WKing the confirmed scum.]

[so random illogical play -- maybe, but a helpful one if Spiffeh/Polarbears being the only ones who opened the door to possibly eliminating DEB over than Bell wasn't just a coincidence.]

~Morning

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:03 pm
by mastina
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:This is the /exact/ same thing Bell did earlier: woe is me AtE, stalling / not actually providing reads, etc. Why /should/ we town read you for this behavior given the precedent set by Bell?
My thoughts exactly.
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:Why did you think this was important? That is, why was it important to keep DEB near elimination even if we weren't intending to immediately go through with it?
Because I was under the impression that if we didn't keep DEB close to elimination, Toogeloo wouldn't be held accountable, that he could use the lack of the wagon being large enough, that he could use the wagon being below L-2, as an excuse to not be doing what he promised to do.

Basically, I thought that if DEB was at L-3 or lower, Toogeloo would continue to go "DEB's not in the range for me to vote him yet" and use that as an excuse to not be held accountable. After all, I was under the impression DEB was never voted to L-1, so I wanted Toogeloo to vote DEB at L-1, and then in a separate post, unvote DEB (rather than in the same post). Which is something that'd require DEB to be at L-2; if he was at L-3, Toogeloo couldn't cast a proper L-1 vote then unvote in an immediately following post, what I was wanting him to do. And after that, we'd coordinate the L-1 with him hammering or facing the consequences.
In post 5672, Polar Bear Express wrote:I haven't seen a SR from you all game.
In post 25, mastina wrote:Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) <--Has proven to be an incredibly good liar.
VOTE: Polar Bear Express.
I'm pretty sure that FL would absolutely love to get his hands on Noraa as an agent of his. Of the slots in the game, the only one who'd be more FL-friendly is DEB but everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and FL knows everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and that's a literal WIFOM situation that we could add layers to for days on if FL picked DEB or not, so I'm going not with the most obvious candidate (DEB) but the second most likely candidate.
In post 72, mastina wrote:Polar Bear Express

Flavor Leaf

Thereabouts!
In post 785, mastina wrote:
In post 205, Polar Bear Express wrote:I think Flavor prolly picked all the good scum players for his team.
By and large, I don't exactly disagree. I think FL is fully capable of picking one good-town player to deny them the chance to be town, but by and large I expect there to be three good scum.

The list of good scum isn't quite the same as the list of good liars, but you'll note there's quite some overlap:
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Dr Easy Bake

This is the list of players I'd expect FL to think are good at scum, and like I said: I imagine it contains ~3 scum.

So from a pick-spec point of view, I quite like my Polar Bear Express vote. :P
In post 788, mastina wrote:
In post 206, Netflix and Chill wrote:I think instead of trying to play “guess the reigning DC’s draft” we could just, ya kno, scumhunt? And not play the game on his terms, giving him that much more control over it?
Fair, so let me put it another way;
Noraa's content has felt like scumposting to me through and through the entire time. :P

Even without the pick-spec, I'd be voting that hydra here.
In post 793, mastina wrote:
In post 243, Dunnstral wrote:I don't like what Noraa is doing in the thread right now, but it doesn't really look like the game they just played. I like mastina, Netflix and Chill, and I think Bell right now
For the record, I do like those townreads, and yes I do see the same on Noraa but lacking a recent game with Noraa I am not inclined to think Noraa town for it. :P
In post 810, mastina wrote:
In post 313, Ircher wrote:Huh? What looks scummy about Polar Bear Express at this point in time?
Literally every post until the callout of an Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double solve, which is a post that I can see as plausibly town. I'm not
sure
it's town, because it's possible to be scum making a solve out of plausibly-scummy town players, but since I can see the logic behind the suspicions, it's the first thing to give me any doubt on the scumread.
In post 317, Polar Bear Express wrote:No me has to take out ircher cuz ircher being towny.
Mastina/Double/Murder
In post 318, Polar Bear Express wrote:me read Dunn's posts. They keep shading me.
Dunn/Mastina/Double/Murder
For instance, these posts look terrible since they're explicitly OMGUS+reverse-OMGUS (townreading a player townreading your slot + scumreading players scumreading your slot), and it no longer flows as well.
I could see the plausible callout of Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double.
The transition I cannot see.
Suffice to say: I did have reasons. I did see things that were town from you, and in tandem with me placing faith in the players townreading you, I did eventually transition into a game-long townread, but over time I lost the reasons to townread you with the read being stagnant/stale and relying on me, explicitly, placing trust in pichu being right.

And right now, my read on you is explicitly not a tunnel of confirmation bias with me convinced you must be scum.

It's a poe read with me convinced others are town.

There are five possible names for being scum:
{mastina, Ircher, Solstice, Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh}.
I know myself to be town, so from my perspective there's only four names possible.

And, per your hydra's own established stances...
In post 5668, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5641, mastina wrote:Solstice if scum was warning the town about what amounts to the scum's greatest trump card. Furthermore, that scumsides the setup. A surprise supersaint with the town having no warning, when the town's only power beyond the three masons is a (somewhat gated) doc, a vig, and a weird investigative (which, functionally, acts a lot like a cop)?
I agree with this assessment.
-nornor
In post 5669, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5643, mastina wrote:But in the event of this game being actually balanced, I would say Solstice is town. (And that if Solstice were scum, the game would be scumsided regardless of what the mods thought when designing the setup.)
I know nothing of balance but I don't think scum would ever claim super saint enabler which lead to all of town thinking DEB was scum super saint.
...You agree with me that Solstice is town.

You agree with me that Solstice is town, and I know myself to be town.

And given that there's 2 scum, that leaves 3 candidates for two scum: {Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh, Ircher}.

And of the three, I find Ircher the towniest by far.

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:05 pm
by mastina
(I'm not gonna quote it but I feel obligated to mention that is the exact sort of post that MURDERCAT cased Noraa on.)

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:13 pm
by mastina
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:I’d probably flip Ircher before Mastina since I know for a fact these ridiculous fanfiction type of analysis is something she can also do as town.
Okay but question.

Where did you get that knowledge?

I've not played with either head of your hydra before and I didn't link any of my towngames before and I don't seem to recall any mention of you checking out my towngames nor them having been linked to you by another.

So where did you get this info from?

Because this is exactly how FL tends to characterize my gameplay and it sounds like something he'd have said in the scum PT.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:What’s bizarre to me is Mastina’s 180 and now Ircher’s jumped on it.
It's not a 180 given that I've said for days that if I was wrong on a townread, Spiffeh was the most likely; if I was wrong about two, you'd be the second.

And now we know, via Solstice being town and there being only 5 possible scum including Solstice (4 without Solstice) and with me knowing I am town in that list.

That there's exactly two scum in three names, which from my perspective is:
{Ircher, Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh}.
And I've made it pretty clear I don't think it's Ircher, and why I don't think it's Ircher.

So it's basically just POE.

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 pm
by Polar Bear Express
In post 5700, Solstice wrote:
In post 5682, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:For the record, I feel Noraa's town meta is something that scum can imitate without too much difficulty especially with the help of a good scum player (Flavor Leaf) and at least during the early game.
No.
In post 5683, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:Blatant AtE, and calling her narrative a fanfiction is very far from the truth.
Every post mastina has made on us being scum has been confbiased as hell. Im about to review her cases on Toog, BM, and Dunn to see if there is a pattern.
[I disagree, but perhaps you could show me why rather than tell me, so I'll wait and see]

[Also, if you're calling her case confirm biased, aren't you implying she's town? I'm confused which it is -- does it ping you as scummy, or does she seem confirm biased on it?]
In post 5697, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5696, Solstice wrote:[that is genuinely what you got out of 5654?]
not exactly but that post had a lot of "maybe flavor picked this one but then replaced this one"
"and then this one was replaced by this one"
"he had to choose a hydra"
and it was confusing. if u wanna break down that post in ur own words, I can give it a go again.
[I suppose i just found it surprising you interpreted it as "FL picking randomly". I don't necessarily think FL focused on the upper half of the playerlist or any WIFOM like that, but mastina thinking in terms of "Who would replace X?" was interesting to think about]

~Morning
1) I don't think my meta is easily manipulated and I still stand by this but this is a useless argument to begin with so I'm going to just leave it here.

2) I mean when someone is pulling day 1 vote counts to support a scum case on you ........ I would call that confbiased.

3) ....I might have the wrong definition of the word confbias then? I think of it as assuming someone is scum and then supporting it. This isn't a term that is AI?? :neutral: :neutral:

4) well mastina based some of her case around flavor picking the first four on the list(which is ultimately the same thing as picking randomly)
In post 5701, Solstice wrote:
In post 5695, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5692, Solstice wrote:[Why?]
its shady. Like it feels like "its fine if you think I'm scum but by this logic someone else is scummier"

-nornor
[To be fair, you come off as much worse than mastina from the quickhammer, so if we are to take it as genuine, you would be confirmed scum -- whereas mastina is still more of a "maybe"]

~Morning
Well, from my perspective, knowing my role pm is green, it is shady.

I'll leave to Gloria. Pretty sure everything was meant for her there.
In post 5706, Solstice wrote:[Misty was curious who wanted DEB rather than Bell on D2, considering it'd have been pretty beneficial for scum to kill off their surprise Supersaint on that day + have Bell look better from it.]

[From my memory, nobody really prefered DEB up until Pooky had that theory about scum rolecopping Bell and in reality DEB was scum. So i went digging around that area]

Spoiler: The End of D2
[ - Pooky's theory for DEB!scum + Bell!town]
[ - Dunn decides to vote DEB to help Pooky]
[ - Spiffeh says he will vote DEB but only if Pooky removes him and Polarbears from the vig pool.]
[ - Spiffeh is super confused on DEB/Bell, says "can't we just kill them both somehow?"]
[ - Pichu thinks it'd be funny if DEB is scum too, but doesn't believe it]

[ - Gloria thinks DEB is possibly town, and thinks his slot is resolvable]
[ - Gloria finds Bell scummy, as he is not playing like he did in a town game of his]
[ - Gloria unvotes Bell as a result of Pooky's defense to give him a second chance]

[ - Murdercatto is now advocating for DEB first as well]

[ - mastina thinks both DEB/Bell are scum]

[ - Noraa believes that Bell is obvscum, 100% confirmed scum. However, she suggests that today we should get rid of Bell's buddies who are desperately trying to save him. She then claims Murder has singlehandedly started almost every Bell CW, and votes for him]
[ - In response to Solstice saying that isn't remotely true, Noraa says she did it because she was under the impression that Bell's wagon was dying]
[ - Noraa hops back on Bell as soon as I put him to X-2]

[ - While reviewing, Ircher comments that he doesn't buy Pooky's case for DEB being scum over Bell

[Something that we found interesting -- who out of the four of these players was willing to kill DEB over Bell? Spiffeh and Polarbears.]

- [Spiffeh was pretty detached from giving reads on the two of them -- after all, he didn't really fully understand the mechanics behind it, and he was the first to admit he was confused about it. When Pooky proposes we take out DEB first, Spiffeh says, "Sure! (but only if you remove Polar and I from the vig pool)".]

- [Polarbears does not explicitly join the DEB train as Dunn/Murder do, however, Gloria relents on Bell as a result of this defense of Bell by Pooky. She does, however, make sure it is clear that she still isn't seeing town!Bell, but she is willing to give him another chance due to Pooky.]

- [Ircher, while reviewing, doesn't see the scum motivation for scum!DEB to CC town!Bell, so he discards it. This is what I did at the time as well]

- [Mastina is currently feeling them both being scum, but definitely at least one. I don't think she directly acknowledges Pooky's case, but she continues to call out Bell for being scummy by avoiding making content and etc so it is clear who she prefers.]

[Coincidence? Possibly, I do somewhat doubt that scum were thinking "Oh shit here's our chance to get the Supersaint activated and save Bell!" -- However, they were certainly the only two players standing among us who left the possibility of Pooky swapping it to DEB open.]

~Morning
I don't think we ever preferred DEB over bell?
I also wanted to say that in a game like this, I probably don't bus 2 buddies......
Thats just not my type of thing to do.
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[tangent on noraa ----]

[i also just wanna talk about Noraa's vote swap to Murder as well as what comes after. Now this post is bordering on insanity which we already covered when it was made, but I'll summarize her points:]

[A.) Bell is obvscum, there is no way he isn't scum and everyone who thinks otherwise is blatantly obstructing our ability to win. (Noraa is under the impression that) his wagon has been broken to pieces.]
[B.) Murdercatto is responsible for every CW to Bell. He is an incredibly obvious buddy to Bell.]
[C.) We never eliminate outside of Bell/Murder, there is a guaranteed at least 1 scum in there, maybe 2.]
[D.) I vote Murdercat. This puts Murder to 1 vote while Bell is at around 3.]

[Noraa expresses afterwards that she had lost all hope in the Bell wagon ever going through, as it was at E-1 for days and never hammered.]

[This is an absolutely crazy take and I forgot about it up until Misty and I reviewed this area.]

[A.) How Noraa was under the impression that Bell could never have been eliminated is totally beyond me. The only slot that had unvoted Bell is Gloria 2 pages back.]
[B.) How do you vote someone other than the confirmed scum in your eyes, who has about 3 votes. Murdercatto is not confirmed scum to Noraa nor Gloria and has 0 votes. Noraa thinks there is 1-2 scum between them, which conflicts with how she is scumreading Murder for WKing Bell (?)
[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]

[So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that. She mentions afterwards that Gloria told her the Bell wagon fell apart, and that is why she reacted in this way. Maybe true -- however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum]

[Was she was trying (along with Gloria's unvote on Bell to give him a second chance and Spiffeh's willingness to vote DEB) to make the switch off Bell to another wagon more possible? Idk, maybe. It's a wild post. i think there was very little chance of success that the Bell wagon fizzles --
but was she under the impression that there was?
Did she actually think the Bell wagon was dying, so that was her attempt to go off and do something vanity that it looks like she believes in? Which gives a greater chance for Pooky's plan going through. We definitely know that Gloria was open to it, at least.]

~Morning
Bell was at E-2 for like 3 entire days and with pooky over there yelling about how towny bell was, it was already looking pretty hopeless :/
There was a huge chunk of the game that I didn't read at all. Gloria was summarizing for me and made it sound like the whole bell wagon just disappeared like poof so I was like uh ok well lets just start murder and then push bell again tomorrow.
In post 5709, Solstice wrote:
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]
Eh, I think it kind of makes sense, all things considered. If a player sits around E-1 all day, but no one gives intent to hammer, it's very possible will get distracted later in the day and go elsewhere. Having only one wagon was an indicator of stagnation, and when games stagnate, things can go awry. I don't think I'm doing a good job explaining my viewpoint here, but basically, Noraa's impression that Bell is "getting away" is a game state read based on the game's momentum, which was slowing down and not really progressing.
[If Noraa was frustrated that we were getting distracted and going elsewhere, then what is the purpose behind trying to get us to go elsewhere?]
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that.
I actually don't find this particularly condemning.
[Yeah I dont know if that's explicitly scummy for her exactly but i think it is definitely true.]
In post 5708, Ircher wrote:
In post 5707, Solstice wrote:however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum
It might not make sense, but people are not (as a general rule) logical beings. They do irrational things based on an incorrect or unreasonable understanding of reality.
[I agree that it being illogical is not enough to consider it as scummy -- I had previously written it off entirely based on that reasoning. at the moment, I do see starting a random vanity wagon that Noraa seems to believe in (combined with Gloria giving Bell a second chance) as particularly convenient to scum that want to leave open the possibility that momentum sways to DEB. And during this time, Gloria and Noraa both stress that they still believe Bell is scum or at least scummy, which just makes it more odd]

[while they call him scummy, i would say more of their time is shading Toog/Murdercatto than it is Bell, though. Like Noraa is for certain that Bell is scum pretty much completely out of nowhere from what i can tell. I'm rambing now but i guess i would seriously expect Noraa to do more to push who she is certain is scum rather than try and go somewhere that she isn't sure is scum + seems to only think is scum because he's WKing the confirmed scum.]

[so random illogical play -- maybe, but a helpful one if Spiffeh/Polarbears being the only ones who opened the door to possibly eliminating DEB over than Bell wasn't just a coincidence.]

~Morning
I should probably clarify that I never really hard SRed Bell at really any point in time. It was my deep deep trust in hectic and his sorting abilities. Then Bell started AtE'ing like hell and I was like ok yeah I can definitely see it now.

My own scum read was Murder. My bell scum read was based 99% on my trust in hectic.
In post 5710, mastina wrote:
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:This is the /exact/ same thing Bell did earlier: woe is me AtE, stalling / not actually providing reads, etc. Why /should/ we town read you for this behavior given the precedent set by Bell?
My thoughts exactly.
In post 5666, Ircher wrote:Why did you think this was important? That is, why was it important to keep DEB near elimination even if we weren't intending to immediately go through with it?
Because I was under the impression that if we didn't keep DEB close to elimination, Toogeloo wouldn't be held accountable, that he could use the lack of the wagon being large enough, that he could use the wagon being below L-2, as an excuse to not be doing what he promised to do.

Basically, I thought that if DEB was at L-3 or lower, Toogeloo would continue to go "DEB's not in the range for me to vote him yet" and use that as an excuse to not be held accountable. After all, I was under the impression DEB was never voted to L-1, so I wanted Toogeloo to vote DEB at L-1, and then in a separate post, unvote DEB (rather than in the same post). Which is something that'd require DEB to be at L-2; if he was at L-3, Toogeloo couldn't cast a proper L-1 vote then unvote in an immediately following post, what I was wanting him to do. And after that, we'd coordinate the L-1 with him hammering or facing the consequences.
In post 5672, Polar Bear Express wrote:I haven't seen a SR from you all game.
In post 25, mastina wrote:Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) <--Has proven to be an incredibly good liar.
VOTE: Polar Bear Express.
I'm pretty sure that FL would absolutely love to get his hands on Noraa as an agent of his. Of the slots in the game, the only one who'd be more FL-friendly is DEB but everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and FL knows everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and that's a literal WIFOM situation that we could add layers to for days on if FL picked DEB or not, so I'm going not with the most obvious candidate (DEB) but the second most likely candidate.
In post 72, mastina wrote:Polar Bear Express

Flavor Leaf

Thereabouts!
In post 785, mastina wrote:
In post 205, Polar Bear Express wrote:I think Flavor prolly picked all the good scum players for his team.
By and large, I don't exactly disagree. I think FL is fully capable of picking one good-town player to deny them the chance to be town, but by and large I expect there to be three good scum.

The list of good scum isn't quite the same as the list of good liars, but you'll note there's quite some overlap:
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Dr Easy Bake

This is the list of players I'd expect FL to think are good at scum, and like I said: I imagine it contains ~3 scum.

So from a pick-spec point of view, I quite like my Polar Bear Express vote. :P
In post 788, mastina wrote:
In post 206, Netflix and Chill wrote:I think instead of trying to play “guess the reigning DC’s draft” we could just, ya kno, scumhunt? And not play the game on his terms, giving him that much more control over it?
Fair, so let me put it another way;
Noraa's content has felt like scumposting to me through and through the entire time. :P

Even without the pick-spec, I'd be voting that hydra here.
In post 793, mastina wrote:
In post 243, Dunnstral wrote:I don't like what Noraa is doing in the thread right now, but it doesn't really look like the game they just played. I like mastina, Netflix and Chill, and I think Bell right now
For the record, I do like those townreads, and yes I do see the same on Noraa but lacking a recent game with Noraa I am not inclined to think Noraa town for it. :P
In post 810, mastina wrote:
In post 313, Ircher wrote:Huh? What looks scummy about Polar Bear Express at this point in time?
Literally every post until the callout of an Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double solve, which is a post that I can see as plausibly town. I'm not
sure
it's town, because it's possible to be scum making a solve out of plausibly-scummy town players, but since I can see the logic behind the suspicions, it's the first thing to give me any doubt on the scumread.
In post 317, Polar Bear Express wrote:No me has to take out ircher cuz ircher being towny.
Mastina/Double/Murder
In post 318, Polar Bear Express wrote:me read Dunn's posts. They keep shading me.
Dunn/Mastina/Double/Murder
For instance, these posts look terrible since they're explicitly OMGUS+reverse-OMGUS (townreading a player townreading your slot + scumreading players scumreading your slot), and it no longer flows as well.
I could see the plausible callout of Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double.
The transition I cannot see.
Suffice to say: I did have reasons. I did see things that were town from you, and in tandem with me placing faith in the players townreading you, I did eventually transition into a game-long townread, but over time I lost the reasons to townread you with the read being stagnant/stale and relying on me, explicitly, placing trust in pichu being right.

And right now, my read on you is explicitly not a tunnel of confirmation bias with me convinced you must be scum.

It's a poe read with me convinced others are town.

There are five possible names for being scum:
{mastina, Ircher, Solstice, Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh}.
I know myself to be town, so from my perspective there's only four names possible.

And, per your hydra's own established stances...
In post 5668, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5641, mastina wrote:Solstice if scum was warning the town about what amounts to the scum's greatest trump card. Furthermore, that scumsides the setup. A surprise supersaint with the town having no warning, when the town's only power beyond the three masons is a (somewhat gated) doc, a vig, and a weird investigative (which, functionally, acts a lot like a cop)?
I agree with this assessment.
-nornor
In post 5669, Polar Bear Express wrote:
In post 5643, mastina wrote:But in the event of this game being actually balanced, I would say Solstice is town. (And that if Solstice were scum, the game would be scumsided regardless of what the mods thought when designing the setup.)
I know nothing of balance but I don't think scum would ever claim super saint enabler which lead to all of town thinking DEB was scum super saint.
...You agree with me that Solstice is town.

You agree with me that Solstice is town, and I know myself to be town.

And given that there's 2 scum, that leaves 3 candidates for two scum: {Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh, Ircher}.

And of the three, I find Ircher the towniest by far.
None of your arguments are actually like ... mastina specific. Like I could take this wall, change a few things, replace PBE with mastina and the same argument applies....
In post 5711, mastina wrote:(I'm not gonna quote it but I feel obligated to mention that is the exact sort of post that MURDERCAT cased Noraa on.)
I quoted some posts that I want to go over later. Whats ur point.
In post 5712, mastina wrote:
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:I’d probably flip Ircher before Mastina since I know for a fact these ridiculous fanfiction type of analysis is something she can also do as town.
Okay but question.

Where did you get that knowledge?

I've not played with either head of your hydra before and I didn't link any of my towngames before and I don't seem to recall any mention of you checking out my towngames nor them having been linked to you by another.

So where did you get this info from?

Because this is exactly how FL tends to characterize my gameplay and it sounds like something he'd have said in the scum PT.
In post 5703, Polar Bear Express wrote:What’s bizarre to me is Mastina’s 180 and now Ircher’s jumped on it.
It's not a 180 given that I've said for days that if I was wrong on a townread, Spiffeh was the most likely; if I was wrong about two, you'd be the second.

And now we know, via Solstice being town and there being only 5 possible scum including Solstice (4 without Solstice) and with me knowing I am town in that list.

That there's exactly two scum in three names, which from my perspective is:
{Ircher, Polar Bear Express, Spiffeh}.
And I've made it pretty clear I don't think it's Ircher, and why I don't think it's Ircher.

So it's basically just POE.
You haven't played with me before but you have played with gloria before. Its not my place to say more on this subject.
Well for us the poe is {mastina, ircher, spiffeh} and none of your poe arguments are convincing as they are empty and I could switch some names around and u'd be scum.

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 pm
by Polar Bear Express
-nornor

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:31 pm
by Polar Bear Express
Can people stop writing wall after wall after wall?
I have to spend like a solid hour just reading some posts that imo could be summarized into nice short chunks.

-nornor

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:52 pm
by Solstice
In post 5715, Polar Bear Express wrote:Can people stop writing wall after wall after wall?
I have to spend like a solid hour just reading some posts that imo could be summarized into nice short chunks.

-nornor
[To be honest, wall-style posting is easier for me to parse through than 500+ post ISOs. i will try to keep it shorter though]

~Morning

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:57 pm
by Solstice
In post 5713, Polar Bear Express wrote:1) I don't think my meta is easily manipulated and I still stand by this but this is a useless argument to begin with so I'm going to just leave it here.

2) I mean when someone is pulling day 1 vote counts to support a scum case on you ........ I would call that confbiased.

3) ....I might have the wrong definition of the word confbias then? I think of it as assuming someone is scum and then supporting it. This isn't a term that is AI??

4) well mastina based some of her case around flavor picking the first four on the list(which is ultimately the same thing as picking randomly)
[I don't understand your point regarding D1 votecounts. is there something about D1 that makes it invalid?]

[Confirm bias means you tend to prefer evidence that confirms what you already thought in the first place while ignoring evidence on the contrary. If Mastina is confirm biased on you being scum, as you claim, that would imply she is town. How can she be confirm biased if she is scum that knows you are town? Maybe you mean cherry-picking, which is more of a malicious tactic where she intentionally grabs examples that make you look scummy while ignoring ones that would prove otherwise. In any case i would be interested if you showed examples of her doing that (rather than just saying it's what she's doing)]

[Well no, that's not random, that's intentional, but i see what you mean. I'm not terribly interested in Flavour WIFOM anyway.]

~Morning

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:28 pm
by Ircher
In post 5716, Solstice wrote:
In post 5715, Polar Bear Express wrote:Can people stop writing wall after wall after wall?
I have to spend like a solid hour just reading some posts that imo could be summarized into nice short chunks.

-nornor
[To be honest, wall-style posting is easier for me to parse through than 500+ post ISOs. i will try to keep it shorter though]

~Morning
I think the same. Long quotes are hard to deal with though.

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:32 pm
by MURDERCAT
Ircher and Noraa what are your gth solves?

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:48 pm
by Ircher
Spiffeh and Polar Bear Express.

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:16 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
im drunk

keep up the good work everyone



why is that lazy bum spiffey not doing shit?

some1 kick that mouse

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:07 pm
by Spiffeh
Hey Pookster

Sorry work has been crazy these past two days but I have a three day weekend so I will try to post a lot and you will see how obvtown I am and we can lim the scum instead of me!

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:03 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
does any1 believe this mouse?

Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:11 pm
by MURDERCAT
Happy new year all :)

You think he would just lie and say he's town when he's not?