Minvitational 4 - The Mystery of the Milan Murders: Resolved

[Dragon Slayer]

If anyone gets lynched, it's a group decision. If the lynchee is innocent, everyone on the wagon could be considered a viable suspect...

I agree partially, MeMe, but you can't deny that we first all tend to go for the person that was "leading" the wagon or who had most impact on getting people to vote for the person.

[Cadmium]

--You say I've been on every bandwagon in the game. I will cop to being everywhere on day one: at the beginning of the day, I had to find a target on whom I could 1) be the first vote and 2) get bandwagon support so I could get my investigation. Once I found out DS was "innocent," I was doing my utmost to save him the rest of the day, which entailed switching where the wind blew because he was the one person (besides myself) I "knew" was innocent. Day 2, I voted for jeep then CB and stuck because I got a guilty investigation. Today...well, see below where I cover one of your later points.

Exactly, about every bandwagon in the game.

--You say you immediately unvoted me because you can "clear" me...everyone

else

immediately stopped suspecting me because my gameplay lines up with my role claim.

If you read back you'll see that I unvoted you because that roleclaim explained your behaviour and because I could check it.

--Saying mathcam's explanation looked like a load of crap doesn't "make [me] look silly" because it was true. Please note that Cam himself admitted that he could see that.

*sigh*

Never mind that sentense.

--You say you have opinions that last "more than 5 hours" (and, by implication, you're saying that mine change more often than that). You've voted for me, mathcam, and DS today. I've voted for mathcam (to get my investigation result...unvoted him as soon as I succeeded) and you.

I wasn't necessarily talking about voting. From the beginning of today I was convinced that either you or mathcam is the last mafia. Only when Dragon Slayer made that weird comment, I began suspecting him. You, on the other hand, pointed at mathcam first (you keep saying it was for your investigation, but when I voted for you, I didn't know about that). After my suggestion that it could be you we're looking for, you say it's either me, Corsato or Dragon Phoenix. After that, you start pointing at Dragon Slayer and Corsato. When DP remarked something, it was either Dragon Slayer or mathcam. And finally, it's me. You see the difference?

--As for the rubbing my face thing...smileys don't mean anything to me. There're also smileys in your last post where you said that I've 1) been on every bandwagon and 2) looked silly for calling Cam's explanation crap. Smiley's aren't magical erasers that take your words away while you still get the pleasure of saying them, Cad. You answer for the words in the posts, not the icons. The fact remains that you said this...

No comment right now, I'll be having much more fun rubbing it in your face when the game's over .

And this...

Again I say, we'll talk when the game is over.

I didn't have to "try hard," -- they're your own words saying you'd rather wait to talk.

1) Yes, again a smiley.
2) Wow, another one. I wonder if there's a pattern ...

Let's look at the whole thing instead of just two quotes from me, shall we:

But that's probably too obvious, eh?

No comment right now, I'll be having much more fun rubbing it in your face when the game's over .

Your posturing about rubbing

anything

in my face when I've been right on days one & two and you've been...well...

not

in on the lynches is humorous.

Again I say, we'll talk when the game is over.

That first quote was a reaction to something completely irrelevant to the game and obviously a joke. If you want to take such a thing seriously, fine. But don't expect me to do the same. That second quote was a reaction to you taking it seriously and was refering to that only. I don't know how you get the idea from this that I'm not commenting on anything. Oh yes, I do know. By "trying hard". Note that quote two is from a later post, so I didn't stop commenting after that first quote, did I? Heck no, I never even stopped commenting

right

after that first quote, there was more in that post. And now you're playing dumb here and pretending you didn't understand that? I call that "trying too hard".

--You say that if someone "manages" to get an innocent player lynched they should be considered as mafia. "What's weird about that?" Well, I'll tell you. It cuts both ways -- if you "manage" to get DS lynched and he's innocent, you should be on deck. If you "manage" to get me lynched, you should be on deck tomorrow. See? It's just silly. If

anyone

gets lynched, it's a group decision. If the lynchee is innocent, everyone on the wagon could be considered a viable suspect...and everyone OFF it, too because they might have simply

known

the innocent was innocent and stayed clear for that reason. Your way made no sense except as a vain "anyone who thinks I'm guilty MUST be guilty"

threat

.

Where did I say it isn't a group decision? That's exactly what we're talking about, btw. I gave

my

opinion, as a part of the group, now that I'm still alive. And I understand that you can just dismiss the fact that you could be mafia trying to get the last person lynched that is able to identify you, but you should understand that

everyone but you

can't dismiss that. So my way does make sense, maybe just not to you. And if you call giving a theory to the town a threat, than you and me have different definitions of a threat.

[Cadmium]

Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to comment on some other things:

In a game where almost everyone goes out at night, Cadmium's role is not extremely useful.

I can't believe I'm actually reading this. Both DS and MeMe should be staying in if they're telling the truth. Right now, I'm the only person who will be able to confirm anyone. And that's not useful? Whatever.

I have a slight hesitation in that if Cadmium's telling the truth, he's the only one that can help verify my claim.

Now I'm completely lost. So my role is not useful but I might be the only one that can help verify your claim? Wow.

I've already said that, given the closeness of the DP/Cadmium arguments to me, I'll be quite happy to join on whichever one will keep me alive.

Then tell me "all" the Cadmium arguments. I explained everything and basically MeMe is exactly onto nothing but apparently has reasons to continue anyway.

Depending on developments, I'm willing to switch to Cadmium.

What I said to mathcam. Explain to me what you think is so suspicious about me. Fact is, noone was suspicious of me until MeMe started her witchhunt. Explain to me why you think she's right instead of just saying you're willing to switch to me, because I just

can't

believe that you would agree with such a thing.

And I'd like to hear Corsato's view as well. I want to know where I stand.

[Dragon Phoenix]

For me, it's mainly a matter of balance. From a balancing point of view, I think DS is the most likely scum, but if he IS what he says he is, I think your role (one more coppish role) is more suspect than mathcam (I consider MeMe and Corsato close to 100% innocent now).

[Cadmium]

I still think DS and mathcam are the most suspicious.

If you thought that DS and mathcam were the most suspicious at first (at that time you said the exact same thing about the game balance), then at some point you just decided "no, not mathcam's role but Cadmium's role is more suspect". So, obviously it's not just a matter of balance.

Don't get me wrong, I believe in your innocence. But stating the same thing twice with different suspects is not explaining yourself. That's just showing that the suspect switch had

nothing

to do with the reasoning behind it.

I just want to show you that you followed MeMe without thinking too much. Even if you think she's close to a 100% innocent, you should have noticed her eagerness to use about everything she could (even taking a joke literally) to get me lynched. Or am I wrong?

[mathcam]

I'm not saying your role is completely useless, just that it's not that useful. Instead of the cop, who can distinguish between good and evil, you have the ability to distinguish between going-outters and staying-inners. This seems obviously less potent to me, as the goal of this game is to find evil, and there's no direct relation between being evil and going out, being evil and staying in, being good and going out, or being good and staying in.

But yeah, your role has uses. You may be the only one that can verify me, and if the need had arisen, you could have verified MeMe. But all in all, it's still just not that powerful given the other roles in the game. And this makes the claim slightly suspect.

Cam

[Dragon Phoenix]

What swayed me towards mathcam (and even MeMe) at first was my big ego. I thought that there would be a GF in the mason group. Now I'm much less convinced of that, seeing that my GL24 was at the GL, not here, and that we already had a SK in the masons (hommage to macros, who did use that at scum). Once I dropped the mason/GF idea, mathcam became much less suspicious. You moved up, mainly as I stated for the game balance reasons, but also because there's that undefinable something in your posts that sets off my scum-detector (patent not pending and known to be failing occasionally, occasionally in this case defined as rather frequently).

I continue to believe that DS is the scum, but if he's not, my money is on you.

[Cadmium]

But all in all, it's still just not that powerful given the other roles in the game. And this makes the claim slightly suspect.

So one player finds my claim unbelievable because it's less powerfull than the other roles in the game and another finds my claim unbelievable because there are too many powerfull roles in the game? This whole thing is getting weirder and weirder.

You moved up, mainly as I stated for the game balance reasons, but also because there's that undefinable something in your posts that sets off my scum-detector (patent not pending and known to be failing occasionally, occasionally in this case defined as rather frequently).

That "undefinable something" is something that can be found in about any of my posts in any game. I've heard this like a thousand times before from other players and from you too. Basically, that's just my gameplay. It's not something specific to

this

game.

Okay, here's the thing. If we lynch DS and he's guilty, we win. But if he's innocent, DP will be killed (the only 100% chance of a kill), the rest will lynch me and lose this game (except for the remaining mafia).

The only thing I want to know from you, is the following: Would your view on the current situation change, if you know I'm innocent? Because if it would, then you should lynch me first, find out that I'm innocent and maybe still have a chance of winning. This would not be my first choice (which would be investigating MeMe tonight and depending on the result lynching either MeMe or mathcam), but at least it's better than getting lynched tomorrow without anyone listening to the truth and see the game end immediately.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Is there some kind of combined night action for mathcam and Cadmium that would clear both at the same time? If there is, we clearly need to lynch DS now. If there isn't (I don't see it, but it's the end of a long working day), we won't get any additional information anyway the coming lynch, night and tomorrow.

[MeMe]

Okay, here's the thing. If we lynch DS and he's guilty, we win. But if he's innocent, DP will be killed (the only 100% chance of a kill), the rest will lynch me and lose this game (except for the remaining mafia).

The only thing I want to know from you, is the following: Would your view on the current situation change, if you know I'm innocent? Because if it would, then you should lynch me first, find out that I'm innocent and maybe still have a chance of winning. This would not be my first choice (which would be investigating MeMe tonight and depending on the result lynching either MeMe or mathcam), but at least it's better than getting lynched tomorrow without anyone listening to the truth and see the game end immediately.

The truth of the first paragraph is striking. If we choose to lynch DS and he's innocent...DP probably

will

die tonight -- leaving us, absolutely, with no doctor since we'd have just killed off the backup.

Now, I understand the Cadmium's stated preference in the second paragraph, but the problem is that it wouldn't really matter what Cadmium says tomorrow because, at this point, there's no proof he's trustworthy. If he says tomorrow "MeMe went out - she's scum,"

I'll

be sure he's lying, but the rest of you will still just be guessing. If he says "MeMe stayed in - let's lynch mathcam," we

still

have to wonder if he's just trying to stay alive.

So - if most of us are agreed it's DS or Cad today, I say Cadmium. His results can't help us if we don't trust him.

Unfortunately, mathcam's nowhere near cleared either. But I was thinking about the godfather and wondering...is it possible that he only has investigation protection during the

night

? If anyone thinks that's a workable theory, then we shouldn't lynch either DS or Cam as I've gotten innocent results on both of them.

And what about no-lynch...? I can't think of any benefit, but if someone

else

can, please share.

[mathcam]

If we don't finish this off today, I think no lynch will possibly/probably be right tomorrow, depending on the specifics of who's still alive, etc.

Okay, I think those are the 3 strongest points made yet as to why to lynch Cadmium over DS today. One, no one can think of a way to verify anyone using his claimed powers even if he's telling the truth, and the fact that we have no idea if he's lying or not makes this even more worthless. Second, 2 dead docs=bad, so if DS is telling the truth, we're really shooting ourselves in the foot. Third and perhaps most moving to me is the fact that if DS is godfather he may still have showed up guilty, as MeMe points out, as her investigation was not a "night" one.

Strategic voting time, all...first to 3 votes may very well be the lynch today.

I can't remember if I said this already...mods, would a prod of Corsato be in order here?

Cam

[Dragon Slayer]

Third and perhaps most moving to me is the fact that if DS is godfather he may still have showed up guilty, as MeMe points out, as her investigation was not a "night" one.

Just to reiterate- that's true.

Also,

Second, 2 dead docs=bad, so if DS is telling the truth, we're really shooting ourselves in the foot.

And the head, and the arm, and the torso- because the mafia would win in the end.

I think that going for the one that would create the most balancing issues isn't a bad idea in most cases, but now definetly not- as that would

probably

be me and I know I'm innocent so that theory is shot.

I'd post more but I should get some sleep before my psat's tomorrow. Wish me luck.

-DS

[mathcam]

Guess what...?!

1 Cadmium (MeMe)

2 Dragon Slayer (Cadmium, Dragon Phoenix )
2 mathcam (Corsato, Dragon Slayer)

1 not voting: mathcam

4 to lynch

Alright, well I was hoping someone would come and save me from this pressure spot. If I vote Cadmium, who I currently find most suspicious, then not only could Cadmium switch his vote to me "in retaliation" and put me at 3, but even if he doesn't, I'm the lynchee for the day having got to two votes first. Not knowing whether or not Corsato's serious about leaving his vote on me is somewhat crippling in terms of knowing what to do. Given that the deadline's tomorrow, I think I have no choice but to

Vote: DS

. I'm not too worried about someone putting on a quick fourth DS vote because a) it seems pretty self-incriminating, and b) the only one that seems likely to do this is Cadmium, who is already voting for DS.

I would rather lynch Cadmium at this point, but

I

know there's a bigger chance that DS is scum than me, so I feel like I'm forced to make this play. On the other hand, we

do

have a full day left, so if someone (oh, I don't know, Dragon Slayer, in an effort to save his own hide) were to move over to the Cadmium bandwagon, then hopefully the town could live happily ever after.

Cam

[MeMe]

I also consider DS to be more likely scum than you -- but his claimed role is more valuable than yours.

Can we get Corsato back? We are in need of his input.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I disagree about the value of the role of DS. There's one last scum amongst us, most likely a GF. Which means that we get only two chances to lynch the right one, whereas the night action inbetween is fixed (DP RIP). So, even if DS would get the power after I die to save every player in the game at the same time the coming nights, it would be immaterial. Before he can get into night action we either have won or lost the game.

[mathcam]

If DS were confirmed innocent or something, I'd probably consider letting myself get lynched instead, just for the reasons you mention, but in this case, boy would I feel like an idiot if I sacrificed myself for scum. So this is why I'm hoping to bully DS in to jumping over to Cadmium's bandwagon (well, I was

really

hoping he'd see that he had to

before

I pointed this out, but oh well).

Cam

[MeMe]

Ah -- good analysis, DP. Duh.

So we're picking DS over Cad then? Alrighty. I'll vote him in a few hours -- giving time for revelations, first.

[Cadmium]

The truth of the first paragraph is striking. If we choose to lynch DS and he's innocent...DP probably will die tonight -- leaving us, absolutely, with no doctor since we'd have just killed off the backup.

Yes, striking, isn't it? It's the truth, from the beginning to the part where you will lynch me and lose the game. But you know what I don't understand? That you're actually thinking that we might have a backup doc left if you lynch me first. And I'm not refering to you only, but to mathcam and DS agreeing with you too. Please explain to me how DS would be of any service to us. He'll just get shot, just like DP will.

Now, I understand the Cadmium's stated preference in the second paragraph, but the problem is that it wouldn't really matter what Cadmium says tomorrow because, at this point, there's no proof he's trustworthy. If he says tomorrow "MeMe went out - she's scum," I'll be sure he's lying, but the rest of you will still just be guessing. If he says "MeMe stayed in - let's lynch mathcam," we still have to wonder if he's just trying to stay alive.

So - if most of us are agreed it's DS or Cad today, I say Cadmium. His results can't help us if we don't trust him.

After thinking this over again, I disagree. I believe it would be in the best interest of the town to lynch DS first. If you lynch me today, tomorrow everyone alive has to choose between three players. If you leave me alive, I'll give my result, and then it's a choice between two players.

[MeMe]

Cadmium...either you're a really slow typist who doesn't bother to preview or you're trying to claim DP's analysis as your own and pretending that I didn't already acknowledge my error.

[Cadmium]

Yes, I'm a slow typist but that has nothing to do with this.

No, I didn't bother to preview this time but I normally do.

I typed most of this yesterday and decided to wait for DP and Corsato to post. When mathcam posted today, I decided to not wait anymore and I pasted it in the quick reply. I wanted to chance a few things and while doing that I got held up. When I came back I finished it and just pressed "submit".

[MeMe]

unvote: Cadmium
vote: Dragon Slayer

[Dragon Slayer]

Wasted lynch. I really was the back up.

Final note- DP is innocent 100%. IMO, he's the only one that is totally confirmable. Next I think is Meme. I'm still placing my money on mathcam, but hey- it could be one of the other claimed investigative roles. I don't think it's Corsato.

Good game.

-DS

[Dragon Slayer]

Next I think is Meme.

As far as confirmability.

Mathcam is/was my suspect numero uno.

[MeMe]

God & Phoebus --

please

replace Corsato before daybreak if he has a choice and doesn't submit it soon.

[Phoebus]

With the bandwagons back and forth, a deadline brings consensus.
DS was smart. Too smart at times. He was a jack of many trades, yet master of none. He had two many abilities and he could not decide which one to use. He was waiting for appropriate guidance to come from beyond but alas, the beyond came first.

Dragon Slayer the Overachiever, has been lynched

It is night 4. Please send in choices by

1200 ET, Monday the 18th.