Mini 780 - Chosen - Game over


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Post Post #575 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:13 am

Post by Incognito »

Vote Count #2 of Day 4


Not voting (3) <-~ Ojanen, ekiM, Lord Gurgi

With 3 living, 2 will do it.

Deadline (less than a week) wrote:
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #576 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:21 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Hi Incog.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #577 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 6:06 am

Post by Incognito »

Hi.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #578 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:43 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Sorry about your game.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #579 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:57 am

Post by Ojanen »

Another stranger sending condolences from a void.
So we wait.
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Post Post #580 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 2:43 am

Post by Ojanen »

Ugh.
/wrists if Mike must be be replaced on top of all this V/LA.
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Post Post #581 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 4:40 am

Post by Incognito »

ekiM has not picked up his prod, so I will be searching for a replacement. Deadline is suspended until I find one. If he posts before I find one, he may remain in the game.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #582 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:58 am

Post by Incognito »

Jahudo replaces in for ekiM effective immediately. Thanks, Jahudo!

I will be extending the deadline by five (5) days to accommodate for the replacement. Your new deadline will fall on Monday, July 20th at 7 P.M. EDT.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #583 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 12:06 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Hi. I'm reading the thread now and should be done tonight.
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Post Post #584 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:17 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Hi, Jahudo. Word is you're scum. Well, you or Ojanen, anyway.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #585 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:40 am

Post by Jahudo »

Well Ace looked pretty scummy to me, but he and Lawrence suspected each other pretty early and pretty often. More so than I think scum-Ace would do as group focus shifted more to Lawrence, until the very end where I could see him wanting to bus.

Law also went after hp later in the day but hp, on the other hand, mostly ignored Law until the hammer. That FoS he gave in 263 looks mostly OMGUS. hp's confidence in 314 looks like he knows Law will flip scum because he's already setting up a connection lynch for day 2.

I don't know who Chosen One could be, since none of our predecessors were likely vetoed. And Lawrence might have placed the CO on the scum end of a suspicion list since that would be fairly easy to use an excuse like gut on day 1, but if they thought the player would have trouble making it to endgame then they might not go strong after a CO lynch and vote day 1.

I'll probably get my own summaries and infodump up later. I'm not ready to vote but I'm leaning towards LG scum. Part of it is Ace-Law interactions looking harder to pass off as distancing, and another part is hp's general anti-town play and unexplained hammer.
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Post Post #586 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:12 am

Post by Ojanen »

In this game who do you think is scum and who do you want to lynch are not necessarily synonymous. Therefore, Jahudo, the interesting question:
who do you want to lynch?
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Post Post #587 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:13 am

Post by Ojanen »

Oh, and hi there+welcome.
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Post Post #588 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:51 am

Post by Jahudo »

Anybody but chosen one. Let's lynch the vanilla townie if that's easier to differentiate than scum vs. CO.

My gut tells me Law wouldn't go after the CO once Law knew he was the day's lynch. The flip would make it harder to lynch the CO later.
* Nuwen (1) Albert
* Lawrencelot (2): spring, Nuwen
* Albert B. Rampage (1): Lawrencelot
* Claus (1) Albert
* AceMarksman (2): spring, Lawrencelot
* populartajo (3): spring, Albert, Lawrencelot
* springlullaby
* ekiM
* hp [leaves] (3): spring, Nuwen, Lawrencelot
This makes me think I might be CO, since he put his name for hp and ace late in the day.

Though in that post and the closest vote count he doesn't look like the obvious lynch, so maybe he wasn't worried about dying when he vote Ace and then hp. Still, some other people like Claus and tajo were feeling he was scum and it was practically deadline when he wrote that so he knew he wasn't in the clear.

I guess it's high risk / high reward if he pushes the CO, or even his scumbuddy at deadline. I think ekiM not being suspected by anybody was something Law couldn't control, but again I think he could have placed a gut suspicion if he wanted to.
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Post Post #589 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:07 am

Post by Ojanen »

That's interesting and everything, but also a somewhat dodge.
Please tell me the name of your preferred lynch at the moment.
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Post Post #590 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:23 am

Post by Ojanen »

Actually it was more than somewhat a dodge.
I: who do you want to lynch?
J: I could be the chosen one because x and y.
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Post Post #591 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:55 am

Post by Jahudo »

I would not like to be lynched.
I prefer a LG lynch at this time.
I am not ready to vote.
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Post Post #592 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:19 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

So, Jahudo, how do you explain ekiM's suspicion of Ojanen/Ace?

Also it's worth mentioning that the Law wagon as a feasible option emerged much later than Law pushing the hp wagon, which was, until ABR switched, looking like the day's lynch. I find it highly unlikely that scum would go through that much trouble to lynch someone if they weren't the chosen one. Day One (from experience) is the most vulnerable time for the Chosen One.

Up until ekiM got replaced, since he and Ojanen suspected eachother, I was going to suggest lynching me.

I fail to understand how your post differentiates the possibilities of me being scum and Chosen One from one another. If I'm 50/50, lynching one of you two is a better option.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #593 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:29 pm

Post by Ojanen »

Jahudo, can you tell the whether LG is your preferred lynch at this time over myself and yourself is because of the same reasons you think he's likelier scum/you could be the chosen one? Or do you have other thoughts related to the lynch?
(=If it deviates from something you've already said, why LG?)
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Post Post #594 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:33 am

Post by Jahudo »

LG, can you give more of your own ideas?
Lord Gurgi wrote:So, Jahudo, how do you explain ekiM's suspicion of Ojanen/Ace?
Yeah I think the guy looked pretty scummy day one. I'll create a separate post for everything I didn't like about his play.
Lord Gurgi wrote:Also it's worth mentioning that the Law wagon as a feasible option emerged much later than Law pushing the hp wagon, which was, until ABR switched, looking like the day's lynch.
I disagree.
Law voted for hp in post 211. Four people suspected him before 211.

Claus – Post 57 (Apr 29)
AceMarksman – Post 115 (May 4)
Populartajo – Post 128 (May 7)
Ekim – Post 197 (May 12)

And it took 5 votes to lynch, so he must have felt the pressure even if there were other lynch candidates with as much, if not more, pressure than him. I don't think scum would take the risk on someone who could generate enough suspicion on their own. HP wasn't suspecting Law yet so if Law got lynched without HP's help, HP would probably be the lynch day 2.
Lord Gurgi wrote:I find it highly unlikely that scum would go through that much trouble to lynch someone if they weren't the chosen one. Day One (from experience) is the most vulnerable time for the Chosen One.
Why is day one most vulnerable? If both scum make it through a couple of days they'll have more voting power to direct a wagon. If the CO had lingering suspicions they'd be easier to lynch later on.
Lord Gurgi wrote:I fail to understand how your post differentiates the possibilities of me being scum and Chosen One from one another. If I'm 50/50, lynching one of you two is a better option.
I think there's a greater chance that you're scum than town. My confidence that I'm CO and Ojan is VT is not very high.
Ojanen wrote:Jahudo, can you tell the whether LG is your preferred lynch at this time over myself and yourself is because of the same reasons you think he's likelier scum/you could be the chosen one? Or do you have other thoughts related to the lynch?
Law/Ace/HP voting analysis makes me think LG is more likely scum and you're more likely town.

I think the CO is harder to find between us because the Ace wagon was started by people other than Law, whereas ekiM didn't have a wagon on him. It is my belief that scum would take the easy lynch day 1 even if it was VT. So that doesn't help us very much because once Ace became a harder wagon, Law moved on.
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Post Post #595 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:45 am

Post by Ojanen »

Jahudo wrote:
Lord Gurgi wrote:Also it's worth mentioning that
the Law wagon as a feasible option emerged much later than Law pushing the hp wagon
, which was, until ABR switched, looking like the day's lynch.
I disagree.
Law voted for hp in post 211. Four people suspected him before 211.

Claus – Post 57 (Apr 29)
AceMarksman – Post 115 (May 4)
Populartajo – Post 128 (May 7)
Ekim – Post 197 (May 12)

And it took 5 votes to lynch, so he must have felt the pressure even if there were other lynch candidates with as much, if not more, pressure than him. I don't think scum would take the risk on someone who could generate enough suspicion on their own. HP wasn't suspecting Law yet so if Law got lynched without HP's help, HP would probably be the lynch day 2.
I don't get this interaction on your viewpoints on this. I think the underlined premise is very inaccurate, maybe stems from looking at much too short slice of time before deadline.
Facts:
-hp had a suspicions trailed on him through most of day 1, without Law though.
-http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 19#1665219 the biggest wagons were Law (Ace on this one) and Ace (Law and Mike on this one) with 3 votes each. Tajo had 2 (hp one this one). Hp had 1.
At that point Law unvoted. Next day Mike switched from Ace to hp. Law voted Tajo to make them 3-3. On that same day Law switched to hp, and now hp and law were 3-3.
Next day tajo switched from law to ABR and Mike unvoted hp "because things got complicated", shrinking the wagons to 2 law - 2 hp - 2 tajo.
Next things, Claus and Mike jump on hp to make him L-1 for 2 days.
In the final day before deadline, Law's lynching wagon emerged behind Ace's lonely vote.
Jahudo wrote:Law/Ace/HP voting analysis makes me think LG is more likely scum and you're more likely town.
I think the CO is harder to find between us because the Ace wagon was started by people other than Law, whereas ekiM didn't have a wagon on him. It is my belief that scum would take the easy lynch day 1 even if it was VT. So that doesn't help us very much because once Ace became a harder wagon, Law moved on.
I'd say more like once Law was tied as leading wagon with Ace, he moved on.This also understates the continued comebacks of law to suspect/vote Ace.

Time to say what I think and why I asked:
Not sure what to think about Jahudo not coming to this reasoning on his own, makes me suspicious (not that I'm not already that). But I was thinking that if he would say he prefers my lynch he would be guaranteed scum. Because day 1 my slot had the opportunity to hammer hp near deadline for 2 days, and Ace kept his vote on the scum who got lynched. Lynching your buddy on day 1 instead of the universally suspected chosen one, how smart is that?
Therefore, if Jahudo's slot was town, he would know with considarably high probability that hp is either vanilla or scum.
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Post Post #596 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:02 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Ace's non-hammer is very telling. I think it would have been worth it for scum to quick hammer in that situation if they were getting CO. I must have missed this point on my rushed read.

Voting LG looks like the best option.
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Post Post #597 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Jahudo, no ideas are original at this point. You're analysing the same thing that's been analysed again and again and coming to different conclusions for different reasons, that doesn't make it original, that's rehashed. You didn't address
why
I'm more likely scum than Chosen One, you just said that I am more likely scum than town. Answer the question in a straightforward manner. Four people suspected Law, but all of them were low on his suspicion, a bunch of people putting him #3 didn't emerge as a real wagon for a while. Day One is obviously the most vulnerable for Chosen One, because he has no defense. He can be railroaded by a policy lynch, a "random" wagon, or any number of other bad reasons that the scum can manipulate into lynching who they want. It almost happened this game. The case against hp was that he went V/LA and then lurked. That's how the scum get the right mislynch.

Jahudo, how can you possibly think you're the Chosen One? What has happened to you is the antithesis of what should happen to the Chosen One. You weren't suspected at
all
day one. Any scum, especially someone like Law, would setup suspicion for later days.

If I am Chosen One: Ojanen is Townie, Jahudo is Scum. I'm not too sure if we have anything to point to what the case would be if the two of you were Chosen One, so let's do that.

If Jahudo wants to lynch me, and Ojanen wants to lynch Jahudo, this makes me want to lynch Ojanen. Whoever has no suspicion is the best lynch today.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #598 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:27 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Jahudo, pick someone as your Chosen One read. Having only one suspicion makes it far too easy for you to maneuver.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #599 (ISO) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:39 pm

Post by Ojanen »

More hammertime stories:
This is much much much less absolute, but Mike was sitting on L-1 yesterday while hp requested replacement and LG came in.
They expressed no opportunism at hammering at that point, instead LG got Nuwen to self-hammer, although hp did suspect Mike.
I count that as a further minus point for Mike's probability of being the chosen one.
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