Mafiascum.net

ofrhz (pretty much outdated now, but hope it makes more sense now)

In post 486, pinturicchio wrote:@Scioness, before building my own case, I want to help you not to have a bad time with this game. I know it's not easy to understand since you are in the eye of the storm, but Oxy is a pretty easy sortable player, and it can be explained with one single word: overconfidence. Look at his progression: he starts with some townreads, he engages a little with you, but when he really really comes and push his reads is when he gets townread by his own townreads so he, in his mind, becomes the "leader" of his townbloc, because other people is having problems sorting out the rest of players. Best example: ruru voting for Drixx because Oxy asked her to do it. Another example: after I dismiss my case on him and ofrhz, he asks me to vote for someone he is scumreading (don't remember who it was, if eth0s, Drixx or you), because that's how he plays: he gets townread, he lead.

Thanks and sorry if I upset you by being upset! It is fair to assume I don't understand how overconfident people work because I really don't, I have an idea of general characteristics and traits but that's it. I think you are cutting him too much slack, though. And I don't generally think people are that simple, his progression isn't that clear. And assuming Oxy is just over confident doesn't explain everything. Do you think he was so confident he was sure he would lynch me d2 becuase I would produce enough evidence for townblock to follow him?

Overconfidence is a townie treat, because scum can't be overconfident in their reads. Why? Well, because scum knows who is town and who is scum, of course. That's not overconfidence in their reads, that's knowing for sure that their reads are good or bad. And simulating to be overconfident is really really hard, or at least keep playing like that during the entire game. The only post where

I've seen Oxy not being overconfident is after you AtE posts in this page, and that stills make sense because he has tunneled you so hard that maybe he felt bad for it.

And yes, I understand how you feel with the tunnel, it has been horrible, but that's a playstyle you will encounter more than once.

I disagree. For me it's more a human trait less a playstyle thing. So if someone is confident outside of the game they will be confident in game regardless of alignment. I agree that it's probably hard to fake.

Again, he was overconfident enough to have me confscum but not overconfident enough to push it harder and that's were you are losing me. It's still a mystery to me, why it went the way it went. Bolded - if he was looking with everything I have said with confscum!sajj how likely is it for him to stop because of something I was saying, I can see if it was an influance from outside of the tunnel. This all makes perfect sense to you but the connections seem pretty loose to me. I don't know if there is actually any point in discussing this. Hard to messure confidence I believe.

Ah, I think it wasn't tunnel itself that bothered me but my inability to understand it and things around it. This game hasn't been that bad. Thanks again for being considarate though!

note: I think I see wifom(?). You had pretty strong confident entrance.

About your case on Oxy: it's great, really. People tend to analyze cases ex post and not ex ante; if Oxy flips town and you get lynched and you too flip town, people would say "wow what a shitty case", but that's unfair, since your case was built with

much more less information

. But the thing is, for the rest of us who aren't in the eye of the storm... Wait I'll talk for myself not for the rest:

for me, Oxy is pretty much confirmed as town, so even if your case is great, I can't see how can we both be reading him so differently. I'm not scumreading you because of this, but because I'm scumreading you and townreading Oxy, I can't see your case as something else than a great attempt to get away of suspicions.

What do you mean by less information? You mean that because of the tunnel I wasn't looking at the full picture?
Bolded shows weird bias. This looks to me like you are saying that town has to have the same reads, could you elaborate? And you seem really confident it has to be t vs s, even though you like my case. I understand you liking my case as you agreeing with things I have said.

once again, Oxy gets scumread and then starts townreading the person that does it (this time it's me). I think that's everyone that has called him scummy so far.

i mean, it's pretty much everyone who has spoken in the game so far

In post 569, ofrhz wrote:In post 526, Scioness Sajj wrote:
I don’t understand what ‘fits for show’ have to do with the ate itself. I have NEVER in that game planned ate to gain towncred or townreads. I have mentioned fighting people or wanting to fight them.
Was I in skitter’s lynchpool?

I meant that you've been histrionic as scum before. You're right, I don't know if you were pretending to be offended or not, and in fact, I think you were genuinely pissed off at points in that game. However, my point at the end of the day is that you being pissed off isn't indicative of town, but skitter seems to think it is. (btw, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p9960891 is one example of the kind of post I'm talking about. Ruru found this earlier.)
I think I used the wrong word here. When I said "lynchpool," I meant "willing to lynch you if you were scummy" enough. She just said that she no longer wants to consider lynching you at all today, which is an extreme reaction and not at all consistent with her relatively cautious playstyle.

You are saying I have been histronic as scum before like you have seen dozens of my games when I was ate-ing people. I don't want to make excuses for myself but it was my first mafia game ever and it was a wild ride. You should know that if you have read the game and scum pt.
That was not your original point at all, though. Originally you have said that I have planned fits in scum PT.

but for the record, I'm not calling pin town Just that what I had seen wasn't really there upon reread when building the case, so i stopped.

but like what do you want me to say eth0s. You posted a townie analysis when you finally got to the game.

In post 560, Oxy wrote:VOTE: Pinturicchio You guys got the pocketing attempt backwards.

wtf

This came out of left-field and kinda feels like you're trying to find an acceptable new lynch target.

Except you drop it shortly thereafter and it almost feels like you can't substantiate the claim of pin pocketing you?

Like this is just wtf-y.

p-edit: yeah you're admitting that you couldn't substantiate the case. It kinda feels to me that you're looking for a case that you can push and less like that you're looking for scum.

I still have to go back and address a few other things but I was in middle of writing about this vote and saw 579

In post 578, Scioness Sajj wrote:That was not your original point at all, though. Originally you have said that I have planned fits in scum PT.

Yeah that was my original point, but I went back and skimmed through the threads to find examples, I realized I was just misreading. Out of the examples I could find, I'm not sure if you were acting or just being really frustrated. For example, in that post I linked in the game thread wasn't mentioned in the scum thread, so I don't have any evidence it was planned. That's why I said in my last post that you were probably just genuinely pissed off there. Another point of confusion for me originally was that in the scum thread, you said you wanted to pick a fight (which I originally thought meant "act like you're mad") multiple times, but I went to find the post in the game thread and I think you just meant you were going to argue against what someone else had said.

ebwop:
should read: For example, that post in the game thread that I linked earlier wasn't mentioned in the scum thread

585 is what I was talking about when I said you're reasonable in your analysis even when you're wrong. So why couldn't you wrap your head around a simple hypothetical. You understand what I was getting at now, right?

ebwop: 581 is what I was talking about when I said you're reasonable in your analysis even when you're wrong. So why couldn't you wrap your head around a simple hypothetical? You understand what I was getting at now, right?

this is @skitter30, btw

First: I was trying to simplify as much as I could why Oxy was tunneling you so hard, but yeah of course it's not as simple as that. And yeah, I think he thought he was doing a great job putting you on top of mind of everyone by posting about you from time to time, so he leading a lynch was possible.

By less information I mean that, at the time you made the case on Oxy, you didn't know the alignment of anyone but yourself on the game; that's what I mean with ex post analysis. People would read your case knowing for sure that Oxy was town and try to debunk your case and maybe scumread you for it, but that would be unfair because the case is good. And no, when I said I liked your case I meant that, no matter your alignment, it's well constructed. I mean, if you are town, it's a great case and I would totally buy it, and if you're scum, you did a great job to drive a mislynch. I believe the latter because I started scumreading you before the case. Having good or bad reads is NAI from my point of view.

About the bolded: yes, it's biased, that's what I meant. From my point of view, Oxy is town, so seeing someone so convinced that Oxy is scum is weird for me, because one of us has to be wrong. But as I said, I'm not scumreading you for that, so no, town doesn't has to have the same reads, it only drew my attention that someone could be reading the game in such a different way.

Last: no need to thank me, I'm glad that you aren't having a bad time as I thought you were!

p-edit: shit, ninjaed to the death. @Scioness this was a reply to your post!!

In post 573, Oxy wrote:@ruru can you talk to me about skitter some more please

I feel like pressuring Drixx was significantly +EV and I don't like that she was so against it when, from a town POV, it should be clear that nobody was actually going to lynch Drixx in 24 hours (which I was trying not to say, but I guess I will say it now since the strategy is pretty much done).

The longer he has votes on him the more likely we are to get information either from him or from people's reactions to the wagon. If he's town and scum makes the mistake of hammering him then we found scum, and I don't believe a town player who wants to win would ever hammer given the context of the wagon. I think the pro-town play would be to unvote closer to the deadline, not to do it immediately, and I feel like a town player should be able to figure that out I guess rather than make some arguments about why lynching him in 24 hours would be wrong.

In post 531, eth0s wrote:@skitter in your 388 you talk to ruru about her playstyle being pretty defensive and talk about how she only plays reactively. Well I could draw parallels to your gameplay. You haven't been playing reactively necessarily, but you mostly talk about ongoing stuff that isn't about you. There haven't been a lot of people going after you because you exude towniness, but I think that maybe you should force interaction with people if you think they are coasting. It doesn't have to be you calling them out but simply trying to understand people's reasoning (which you have done with ruru) is a plus. I'm not trying to call you out here, I'm kind of using you as an example. You haven't had to say much about things other than the 1v1, but when you do it has been thought-provoking stuff to help us look at people objectively. Major town points still. I do kind of wish you would help start a push, because people seem to trust you so far and your talent could be used to lead town.

Idk, I kinda feel like I'm pushing people as I see things to push.

Like I tend to get very aggressive when I'm very confident that I've found scum and people tend to sheep that, but I'm not that confident right now. There's a lot of people I'm townreading or nullreading, and it's hard for me push things when I'm conflicted and still making up my mind.

And people tend to sheep me in general, and this game apparently when I make a vote there's people who will hop on after me just cuz I voted there (ie the drixx wagon), and like, I don't feel good enough about any wagon right now to be responsible for like three votes. Like I cast a pressure vote and the next thing I know that wagon is at L-1 with a deadline to post and it's just ... I kinda feel like people are waiting for me to do something but I don't know what I want to do, and I definitely don't want to cause a whole wagon at the drop of a dime when I don't feel that confidant about it in the first place? Does that make sense? Idk.

I also think scum is somewhat more likely to panic react to L-1, even if rationally it isn't going to lead to a lynch, because it puts them one post away from instantly being in a super losing position.

@ruru I'm with you on that for sure. What about that hypothetical? Reasonable misunderstanding? Also, I'm having trouble with motivation. Why would scum!skitter30 get off that wagon?

oh i missed that. hmm

Also I like eth0s' catch-up; I forgot to put that at the end of that post.

In post 588, skitter30 wrote:And people tend to sheep me in general, and this game apparently when I make a vote there's people who will hop on after me just cuz I voted there (ie the drixx wagon), and like, I don't feel good enough about any wagon right now to be responsible for like three votes. Like I cast a pressure vote and the next thing I know that wagon is at L-1 with a deadline to post and it's just ... I kinda feel like people are waiting for me to do something but I don't know what I want to do, and I definitely don't want to cause a whole wagon at the drop of a dime when I don't feel that confidant about it in the first place? Does that make sense? Idk.

@skitter30 please explain to me how you thought that deadline was enforceable.
Okay, what are your thoughts on this, Ruru?

Like I understand it's not ill intendet but you are dragging me for things that are misinterpreted and taken out of context. This is not a case of interpretation it's case of happend or didn't happen. I have been open about how I felt in scum PT evrything is there. I remember apologizing for that exact post to my scum partner.

If you want to bring arguments from my only other game and present them here you will have to do your homework and read everything (or enough) to prove it.

Metareading isn't taking single posts out and saying 'look it can be true'. Metareading is making assumptions on players playstyle that are most likely to be true based on patterns in behavior. There is only one game, you don't know if I wouldn't act like that as both alignments. By those things in here in the form you did you are just creating paranoia about me at best and bias against me at worst. You are also forcing people in this game to read another game and it is not helping everybody.

In post 587, ruru wrote:I feel like pressuring Drixx was significantly +EV and I don't like that she was so against it when, from a town POV, it should be clear that nobody was actually going to lynch Drixx in 24 hours (which I was trying not to say, but I guess I will say it now since the strategy is pretty much done).

No, this was not clear to me. It looked to me like Oxy wanted to lynch Drixx if he hadn't posted after 24 hours and I don't support that and I won't be on an L-1 wagon pressuring someone like that.

In post 587, ruru wrote:The longer he has votes on him the more likely we are to get information either from him or from people's reactions to the wagon. If he's town and scum makes the mistake of hammering him then we found scum, and I don't believe a town player who wants to win would ever hammer given the context of the wagon. I think the pro-town play would be to unvote closer to the deadline, not to do it immediately, and I feel like a town player should be able to figure that out I guess rather than make some arguments about why lynching him in 24 hours would be wrong.

He literally hasn't logged in since before I voted for him - like his response or lack of a response isn't AI. It just means he's busy. The number of votes he has on him doesn't make it more or less likely for him to post if he literally hasn't been onsite to see them. Like the statement 'the longer he has votes on him the more likely we are to get information from him' literally isn't true if he isn't here at all.

That whole wagon feels like an excuse for scum to push a lynch on someone for lurking when they're just not here.

In post 593, Oxy wrote:@skitter30 please explain to me how you thought that deadline was enforceable.
Okay, what are your thoughts on this, Ruru?

It looked to me like you were grooming pin to want to hammer if drixx hadn't posted in 24 hours.

In post 596, skitter30 wrote:It looked to me like you were grooming pin to want to hammer if drixx hadn't posted in 24 hours.

Don't you think you could have just unvoted after pin gave intent to hammer if you felt the lynch shouldn't go through?

In post 585, Oxy wrote:ebwop: 581 is what I was talking about when I said you're reasonable in your analysis even when you're wrong. So why couldn't you wrap your head around a simple hypothetical? You understand what I was getting at now, right?

this is @skitter30, btw

No I don't understand what this post means or what you're trying to say here. IE I don't understand where my analysis is wrong when you literally said the case wasn't there in 579 as I was writing a post stating I felt like you unvoted pin cuz you realized you couldn't substantiate that case.

I was "grooming" pin to be the hammer because I was getting ready to force him to take a stand on drixx after drixx posted. That way we get info on both slots.

skitter30 wrote:

In post 585, Oxy wrote:ebwop: 581 is what I was talking about when I said you're reasonable in your analysis even when you're wrong. So why couldn't you wrap your head around a simple hypothetical? You understand what I was getting at now, right?

this is @skitter30, btw

No I don't understand what this post means or what you're trying to say here. IE I don't understand where my analysis is wrong when you literally said the case wasn't there in 579 as I was writing a post stating I felt like you unvoted pin cuz you realized you couldn't substantiate that case.

Oh, you're analysis is wrong because I'm town. The analysis is reasonable because I can understand a reasonable person seeing that as a scummy set of posts. My question was why you couldn't understand the hypothetical that ruru posed to me during the Drixx wagon:

In post 409, ruru wrote:[quote="In We need to give NSG and eth0s/his replacement a chance to chime in before ending the day. I can't stress this enough.

How will this play out if Drixx + NSG ... 7]post 410, Oxy"]well, I think one of a few things will happen

1) Drixx shows us why experience matters, convincing us that he is town and breaking this beautiful town circle to shreds
2) Drixx starts flailing/stays inactive, and his partner does their best to break this beautiful town circle apart (chainsaw argument)
3) Drixx starts flailing/stays inactive and his partner makes a case on someone outside the town circle but in our null/scum reads, again trying to break up this town circle
4) Drixx starts flailing/stays inactive and his partner stays inactive and we lynch scum

there are probably some other possibilities. It's a dynamic game. Trust your instincts. If one of those scum teams exist, this is where they will start to make mistakes.[/quote]