Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:21 pm
Can I ask how you came to this conclusionIn post 566, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah, see, scum conceded. It’s TS and BM.
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Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:24 pm
Ydress and Osuka can be added to the first squad, I guess, but Osuka spot is probably the least likely to come from scum. More likely that wagon started by town then scum pushed it down the line until it went through.In post 505, Flavor Leaf wrote:MiniMegabyte, Battle Mage, Gamma Emerald - One of these are probably scum
With
Dongen, Taylor, Bob, arachnid - one of these.
Which means 2 or 3 scum on wagon. 3 scum on a wagon is an extremely bold scum play, and I really don’t see that happening in this, and I didn’t see any major puppet mastering going around, so I think 1 scum stayed off the wagon purposefully, and that looks like Taylor who had an easily made Battle Mage push going. I’d rather vote Taylor than Battle Mage here probably.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:26 pm
Dang beat me to it
VOTE: Taylor Swift
VOTE: Taylor Swift
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Wagonomics mixed with analysis based on the Day 1 interactions with Shellyc.In post 575, MiniMegabyte wrote:Can I ask how you came to this conclusionIn post 566, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah, see, scum conceded. It’s TS and BM.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:27 pm
VOTE: Taylor
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:49 pm
Can you quote some examples of where this has happenedIn post 578, Flavor Leaf wrote:Wagonomics mixed with analysis based on the Day 1 interactions with Shellyc.In post 575, MiniMegabyte wrote:Can I ask how you came to this conclusionIn post 566, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah, see, scum conceded. It’s TS and BM.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:51 pm
The interactions I mean of where you have got this conclusion from
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:51 pm
Like what? It’s literally just the entire of the thing. Going back and looking at Golden’s posts and the interactions with Shelly and then who followed and actually did stuff. It’s just the overall, not any one thing in particular.In post 580, MiniMegabyte wrote:Can you quote some examples of where this has happenedIn post 578, Flavor Leaf wrote:Wagonomics mixed with analysis based on the Day 1 interactions with Shellyc.In post 575, MiniMegabyte wrote:Can I ask how you came to this conclusionIn post 566, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah, see, scum conceded. It’s TS and BM.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:53 pm
Which conclusion?
I just took the list of people who were on the Shelly wagon because there’s like guaranteed one scum in them. There’s a chance there’s 2, but bets on 1.
So i looked at who interacted with Shelly, and why each of them went on the wagon. Gamma and Shelly had an argument that lead to Gamma’s vote on, while Taylor actively stayed off, and then shaded someone who just hammered Shelly, which is likely why Taylor got Maf Doc’d.
I just took the list of people who were on the Shelly wagon because there’s like guaranteed one scum in them. There’s a chance there’s 2, but bets on 1.
So i looked at who interacted with Shelly, and why each of them went on the wagon. Gamma and Shelly had an argument that lead to Gamma’s vote on, while Taylor actively stayed off, and then shaded someone who just hammered Shelly, which is likely why Taylor got Maf Doc’d.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:54 pm
I believe my entry to this game I explain my entire thought process.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:59 pm
Ydrasse and Shelly were arguing left and right yesterday while Golden hopped on, followed by Mini, BM, and Gamma. I believe that there is scum in those last 3, and Ydrasse vs Shelly is TvT, and Ydrasse getting The hammer was a town hammer.
However, someone made a decent point of Ydrasse-Taylor interaction, but I wanna think over if I think they could be S/S more.
However, someone made a decent point of Ydrasse-Taylor interaction, but I wanna think over if I think they could be S/S more.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:00 pm
In post 357, bob3141 wrote:at the momet i feel shelly can go in the town pile
In post 358, bob3141 wrote:The stale wagons most likely mean that scum really have not been throwing their votes around. If scum had been pushing to form wagons we would have got wagons as they can form even from all town votes. So by vote count 1.2 i would say shelly is town as she has failed to make any headway on forming a true wagon. Could also indicate that dong is town too as otherwise scum would have likely gravitated towards it. If it was town + scum, it would have probably got picked up a third vote.
No at that point could the shelly wagon be the same. With the wagon situation no way are both osuka and pooky scum. So at least one town in that bunch. Now this wagon has since picked up another vote from 2 more votes. Which most likely makes this scum motivated wagon.
Osuka, pooky, golden, mini
Now. Is it composed of one or two scum. On that point i think it's too early to say.
Interesting. These sound like me.In post 362, bob3141 wrote:nothing can realy be determined alignment based on current gamstate. could go either way. Scum not pushing scum or scum choosing to push another town wagon are equally likelyIn post 361, shellyc wrote:@bob according to your wagonomics what do you think ydrasses alignment is? I see no comment about ydrasse there
I’m thinking if this is a warlock or something with the hostility towards me hmmmmm
I think im 5dchessing myself here but spitballing my thoughts, the effort from bob with analysis is probably town!AI
I’ll count it as a town Mind meld
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:03 pm
In post 364, Battle Mage wrote:I think Bob is scum.
This is actually interesting because it happens right after Bob was town leaning Shelly, who Golden had been pushing.
This immediately makes Bob’s posts weakened because the general public saw scummy Bob comments right after, but BM changes votes right after. And in the end, they end up right back on Shelly. That looks like damage control and gamestate manipulation.
I hope I’m not super tunneling, I really am just thinking out loud.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:08 pm
Looking back, page 12 ish, that looks like MiniMega is town pushing Shelly based on the way that the momentum came after. Scum took advantage of the building wagon, the talks a lot Shelly, and the townie pushing the townie who’s getting scum read for talking a lot.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:11 pm
This makes me feel Battle Mage is more likely to be scum based on where Golden positioned them here.In post 232, TheGoldenParadox wrote:osuka seems quite genuine here, as does BM, and i have a townlean on pooky for that RQS; null on everyone else atm.
This is part of the post they voted Shelly in, so they used that to try and create a gamestate idea. Osuka being genuine was important for them to say based on them being on the wagon, so they wanted the idea of trust out there which bleeds Osuka town.
Pooky is someone who can shut people down, and it was also good to get him on their side plus they need to hide their shallow comment of BM.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:14 pm
In post 234, Tayl0r Swift wrote:yes its very strange and not like shelly at all - that said, i know shelly is trying to be less agressive and overconfident, so ill give her a pass somewhat because it could be her trying to figure out how to chill out and re-evaluate.In post 232, TheGoldenParadox wrote:Shelly is pinging me quite hard atm, and it's not particularly because of the push on ydrasse but more the mild hostility that she seems to be expressing as well as 227 which i saw as a weird distancing from her previous reads to instead just trust what bob says. her entire interactions with pooky and ydrasse feel off, so let's go with a VOTE: shellyc. osuka seems quite genuine here, as does BM, and i have a townlean on pooky for that RQS; null on everyone else atm.
Notice the difference between Taylor and Bob. Both are players who didn’t end up on the Shelly wagon. Bob questions Golden. Taylor picks a side.In post 235, bob3141 wrote:In post 232, TheGoldenParadox wrote:Shelly is pinging me quite hard atm, and it's not particularly because of the push on ydrasse but more the mild hostility that she seems to be expressing as well as 227 which i saw as aweird distancing from her previous reads to instead just trust what bob says. her entire interactions with pooky and ydrasse feel off, so let's go with a VOTE: shellyc. osuka seems quite genuine here, as does BM, and i have a townlean on pooky for that RQS; null on everyone else atm.
explain the bold. As i dont see her distancing from her own reads. At most shelly is saying that she trust me when i say that the start of day one is best used to town hunt.
Golden then responds to only Bob’s post.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:17 pm
Why BM over spooks for the partner there?Flavor Leaf wrote:This makes me feel Battle Mage is more likely to be scum based on where Golden positioned them here.In post 232, TheGoldenParadox wrote:osuka seems quite genuine here, as does BM, and i have a townlean on pooky for that RQS; null on everyone else atm.
This is part of the post they voted Shelly in, so they used that to try and create a gamestate idea. Osuka being genuine was important for them to say based on them being on the wagon, so they wanted the idea of trust out there which bleeds Osuka town.
Pooky is someone who can shut people down, and it was also good to get him on their side plus they need to hide their shallow comment of BM.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:23 pm
In post 53, Battle Mage wrote:I'm always good to quick-elim a Day 1 scumclaim.In post 50, Donempire wrote:By the way, im scum! After a year in rehab, MS moderators finally found it fit to give me scum. I hope i'll have a wondrous experience deceiving all of you, even the ones i like!
VOTE: dongempire
In post 70, TheGoldenParadox wrote:^^this, please.In post 68, Battle Mage wrote:just to flag, my activity may be a bit lower in this game, as i now have a few running concurrently and a busy couple weeks ahead.
let's aim to avoid 100 pages for Day 1 to help a brother out.
VOTE: dong outright scumclaiming? even scummier than BM townclaiming!
In post 72, Tayl0r Swift wrote:was that a hammer? wtf is with people today.
in case it wasnt,
VOTE: BM
I believe this put Dongen to F-1. Golden put the F-2 vote, which is decently anti partnery as that is a momentum swinging vote. Bob voting right after Golden there also gives some town points.In post 73, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:im so tempted to join the troll army at this point
Battle Mage tried making it happen earlier on this page, and Pooky actively slows things down, so Pooky likely town.
Taylor actively picks a different path yet again.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:24 pm
I just feel Pooky is just hanging around, not really knowing anything more than he should, if that makes sense. I could be wrong, but I feel like Golden was the first scum on the wagon, especially considering Golden added to your wagon earlier.In post 591, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Why BM over spooks for the partner there?Flavor Leaf wrote:This makes me feel Battle Mage is more likely to be scum based on where Golden positioned them here.In post 232, TheGoldenParadox wrote:osuka seems quite genuine here, as does BM, and i have a townlean on pooky for that RQS; null on everyone else atm.
This is part of the post they voted Shelly in, so they used that to try and create a gamestate idea. Osuka being genuine was important for them to say based on them being on the wagon, so they wanted the idea of trust out there which bleeds Osuka town.
Pooky is someone who can shut people down, and it was also good to get him on their side plus they need to hide their shallow comment of BM.
Pooky actively didnt join in to your slot’s wagon.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:24 pm
is this just 4 pages of Flavour Leaf spamming "BM is scum" with no reason, and hedging everything else on that bad read?
Yeah I'll pass.
Yeah I'll pass.
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:26 pm
Ah, this might be why Battle Mage made sure to bring up targets, so he could explain if he was going to be seen later. He might have thought this was a track crumb.In post 37, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'm town homie. you sure you don't want to claim trackerIn post 30, Battle Mage wrote:haha yes exactly! well except the bit about me being scum. I'd love to pocket everyone!In post 27, TheGoldenParadox wrote:VOTE: BM
way too excited about this PL. perhaps scum seeking to pocket everyone?
Also on a serious note - Pooky, you town here?
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:47 pm
I'm
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:47 pm
gonna
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:48 pm
get
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:48 pm
the