mk
so
scum marci doesn't know how to put out individual thought. all her posts are quoting someone else. scum marcis reads are also very indecisive. shes scared to cal people town or scum and her reads are all between leanscum or leantown. she doesn't read anyone by vibes, or gut, and fluffs a lot more
In post 281, KittyTacky wrote:Having issues reading into people here. VFP and Flea are town though and it would take a lot to convince me they are scum. Marci is decent too.
Smoke and Distance are two of my SRs at this point in the game.
In post 522, mastina wrote:Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)
If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).
If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).
POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here; VOTE: VFP
Am open to other thoughts here tho.
ive never played with flea before im pretty sure
if i was scum vfp would be dead tho
i like the vfp vote VOTE: vfp
@Marci, can you explain this?
If VFP would be dead if you were scum, then why do you like this vote?
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:40 am
by imaginality
VFP wrote: I also think I self vote at E1 there with hope that lack of bids go through as scum?
The mod said yesterday it's plurality voting assessed at deadline. So I don't think this would be possible.
imaginality wrote:
the cop should use their ability tonight (if they haven't used it yet) and claim announcing their result by tomorrow latest. So that scum can't wait til do or die to claim it. And anyone who holds back on claiming it beyond tomorrow is very likely scum
Can we explicitly agree to this? I don't want to give scum the chance to fake claim cop on a later day when we can't do a one for one trade. Admittedly I think there's a fair chance Kitty bought it but I'd still like to get people's thoughts on record as to the above plan.
On ssbm_Kyouko, I'd like to stick with my scum read but the 426 vote was a neat bit of logic that seemed pretty pro town. And the mix of powers that came up in the market is pretty good for town. If ssbm is scum, he's smart scum playing the long game.
On the roles today I think we need to bid high for watcher so it costs scum if they want to deny us that role. I can also see auction detective being useful on later days depending what powers come up (I wouldn't waste those shots tonight). I don't personally see gravedigger as particularly useful. It could confirm if doc is dead e.g. if Flea won doc, but on the flip side, there's value in scum not being sure if doc is alive or not. So I'd suggest town players with money to bid bid high among the first three roles.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:42 am
by imaginality
(to clarify, the first three I mentioned - auction detectives and watcher, not the first three in the list)
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:00 am
by Gypyx
Something_Smart replaces mistyx !
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:14 am
by Distance
marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim
In post 545, marcistar wrote:ive never played with flea before im pretty sure
if i was scum vfp would be dead tho
i like the vfp vote
VOTE: vfp
Why would I be dead?
because silly, if i was scum i cant let someone who knows my scum game hella well stick around ^.^
In post 575, Distance wrote:mk
so
scum marci doesn't know how to put out individual thought. all her posts are quoting someone else. scum marcis reads are also very indecisive. shes scared to cal people town or scum and her reads are all between leanscum or leantown. she doesn't read anyone by vibes, or gut, and fluffs a lot more
In post 522, mastina wrote:Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)
If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).
If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).
POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here; VOTE: VFP
Am open to other thoughts here tho.
ive never played with flea before im pretty sure
if i was scum vfp would be dead tho
i like the vfp vote VOTE: vfp
@Marci, can you explain this?
If VFP would be dead if you were scum, then why do you like this vote?
i like the vote because i think he can be doing more if he was town here
I think at least one of the people on the VFP wagon is scum. Because I think scum looking at how D1 went down would want to either start a mis-elim wagon early or get a counter-wagon going before it's too late. VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:14 am
by cyrus62
so im trying to think of how much money scum have left and how much town has left
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:23 am
by imaginality
Town spent between 0 and 1586 yesterday depending how much cop went for and which winning bids were town or scum. Scum spent between 0 and 1886.
In terms of how much remaining, with 9 town remaining we have between 2614 and 4500 remaining. Scum have between 374 and 1600 remaining.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:32 am
by cyrus62
so a safe bet would be 380 maybe
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:47 am
by imaginality
Probably better to bid 500 today because then anyone outbidding you is provably scum, so there's a chance of an auction detective getting a guilty (if we win one of the auction detective powers). Compared with if you bid 380, they can bid 381-500 and still claim to be town.
In post 406, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.
I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.
VOTE: VFP
This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality
You tried to stop the Kitty wagon and are not interested in voting VFP today. Interesting.
UNVOTE:
Since he’s at E-1 I’m going to wait a bit. I’m not really a fan of Kyuku trying to stop the Kitty wagon and seemingly suddenly having no interest in voting VFP today.
Well I certainly had no interest in quick hammering him, you're right about that. I have not expressed any disinterest in voting VFP today though. What do you think about
why
I was trying to stop the kitty wagon yesterDay? You seem to be ignoring/not addressing the why - have you seen it?
In post 406, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.
I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.
VOTE: VFP
This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality
In post 410, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Oh nm I think I was looking at VFP's tally in MO not in VC
In post 467, VFP wrote:I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.
Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.
I had a sneaking suspicion Noraa was bussing in my last game with her, and she turned out to be town. I have the same sneaking suspicion here, though I was more confident in Noraa town than I am in this hydra at present.
In post 436, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:I dont think flea would have doctored me if fae had won it so I'll just assume it was a setup of some kind
I thought Flea bid on cop?
I didn't get this impression, but it seems like there are several references to Flea bidding on cop as I was catching up. Did fae crumb it or something and I didn't notice?
In post 406, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.
I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.
VOTE: VFP
This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality
You surmised a reality that Kitty was town, how does their scumflip affect your reads?
In post 424, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:125+300 is 425. I think cyrus is here as scum to buy something for 425
I'm failing to see the leap of logic where Cyrus bids 425, did you mention it in a previous post?
I enhanced 1-shot BP and the three 2-shots that were rolled. I did not enhance the 1-shot AD, was going to enhance that for tomorrow's auction
Were there any roles you weren't going to entertain boosting at all?
1. My assessment of the situation yesterday was that scum was taking advantage of plurality and the eminent deadline to squeeze through a lynch on a lurking townie that would give no info to town. Because of that I was interested in eliminating just about anyone else, and when I saw Misty, who I was lightly townleaning, vote VFP, a player I was scumleaning so close to deadline, I saw opportunity. I tried to get Gamma onto VFP and luckily he did not swap as Kitty ended up being scum. My reads on the players on the wagon are similar to yours, mastina's, VFP's: I think most likely they are all town. There is potential one player on the wagon was bussing, but I am not convinced and if there is a busser there, it is not Distance. To be clear I am not trying to say you mastina and VFP all feel exactly the same as I do re: that wagon, just that I think my thoughts on it are similar to yours.
2. Cyrus admitted to bidding 125 on each of the 4 roles, and the midday auction provided evidence to corroborate that. I was suspicious as to why he was hanging around so close to deadline when he seemed to not be invested in changing the current MO or Elim wagons. The only reason left to be around at deadline, imo, was to bid at the deadline. However, Cyrus' money should have already been spent if he were town. This lead me to believe he could plausibly be scum waiting to spend his remaining 300 dogecoin on increasing one of his bids. 125+300 =425, so to outbid scum!cyrus I had to spend 426. I went back and forth trying to decide whether to buy roleblock or hitman and decided that if I could get hitman it would be best. It would force scum to deal with the doctor WIFOM or to outbid town on doctor which is a big cash sink for them. This is why I claimed for the doctor my exact bid so they would have the info necessary to decide if they wanted to doc me or protect me via wifom and either save a shot last night, or doc someone else. I also felt that by buying hitman it would increase the value of the doctor and the BP I Enhanced for my successor. Unfortunately BP is the one role I enhanced that did not make it, but it turned out to not matter because I am still alive.
3. off the top of my head, dayvig, hitman, godfather, ninja. Dont remember the other scum roles if there are any. I initially was going to send in 2-shot tracker instead of 2-shot gravedigger but again thought gravedigger would be very helpful for sorting out potential fakeclaims in the upcoming days.
In post 483, mastina wrote:If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this.
VOTE: VFP
HEAL: Smoke and Mirrors
I believe MO is permanent once it has been decided D1 or?
You must've had an instinct to place Marci and Cyrus as town, if not a VFP/Me team. How?
MO is permanent until I die but I can name my replacement in my PT at any point up until my death, so if people want to express support for my successor I will take it into consideration. No promises I'll change it though.
I find this shade on my slot very strange considering I actually caught scum and you tried to save them.
Consider my point of view. From where I'm standing it looks like someone bussed Kitty. Before the flip it looked like he was an easy mislim being pushed through close to deadline. Fmpov, anyone besides Kitty had a greater chance than kitty of being scum, because of how easily the wagon went through. I didnt disagree his iso looked scummy and his disappearing after claiming to have time was definitely a red flag, but life happens sometimes.
When I read your post I think "I find this shade on my slot very strange considering I bussed my partner so I deserve towncred, and you had a bad read on the gamestate so now I'll be using that towncred to shade you"
Fascinating that Kyuku completely lost her sr on VFP today and shaded me for catching scum.
Once again you're leaping to the conclusion that because I didnt immediately hammer VFP that I no longer scumread them. I think at this point it's become apparent that VFP is a mislim. The sad part is if you're town and VFP is scum your actions toDay have made me less inclined to vote VFP.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:31 am
by VFP
In post 379, Mistyx wrote:i think distance being confrontational out of the gate is >rand town
VOTE: VFP HEAL: Mistyx
idk what the current vc is but this is where im leaning
i dont think VFP has really done anything towny and didnt like their handling of gamma post rep in
This is just most likely scum.
Misty doesn't mention Kitty at all, considering they were the leading wagon and makes a new vote for 2 reasons.
I havent done anything towny. Its not exactly wrong, but it's very vague when you consider that this means Misty was playing Kitty off as doing something as town, yet again, not mentioning Kitty.
And they didn't like my handling of Gamma post joining. This is again very vague and doesn't actually make sense considering I hadn't really handled anything other than a back and fourth about a game I wasn't in.
The main part though is having to say that they do not know where the VC is at. If they feel I'm scum here then I don't see a reason to announce this. To say that I I haven't done anything town means that they are either A) caught up and have a general idea that I didn't have votes or at least any in a threatening way, or B) only read my ISO instead of the game which would suggest not scum hunting but looking for reasons to give a scum read.
It seems like a way to distract that Kitty has 4 votes and that they want to start a wagon.
Following on, Kitty doesn't mention Misty and I think 281 is just all town.
Neither Misty or Kitty mention Mastina.
Mastina mentions Mist and places as town several times, but I feel like this has to be locked in given the fina post to date.
167 where Misty is added to the town pile for the following. 44100105112124135149
These posts are either fluff or filler. At best this isn't something that credits a top 4 town read.
Not to mention 161 is an indication of Mastina catching up and already pushing Misty for town posts with only 2 posts that are irrelevant to AI.
I think the only reason Kitty wasn't in this post is because at this point Kitty only had 1 post. 11
Second post is 483 not much to this but just another post to call Misty town with nothing to offer why. 517 even says here that there's no reason. It's a strong read to still be sticking with since mastina also claimed to not have received the cop before this.
Then 526 where mastina is basically getting ready to back peddle if needed. It's a strange thought to have when Misty is apparently that towny. As if trying to get in before anyone else can about the replace out.
Mastinas argument to why Flea was killed makes little sense in general and just comes across as a "I wouldn't kill here, please believe me". Its just too direct that particular players would make an unworthy kill (again, trying to imply the kill wasn't a good one for experienced players) or that Flea was a threat. It just contradicts itself. Either Flea is a threat and therefore worthy of killing or the kill was a bad choice.
We also see that mastina was absent majority of day 1 with only 3 posts. So it could easily just suggest that Misty makes the kill and mastina just wasn't there for the kill.
I find it even stranger that Mastina considers me a player who doesn't care about having input with the kill. Again it just seems to be a precise situation where Mastina is trying to throw mud and see if it sticks.
I'm just calling it now, scum are Kitty, SS/Misty, and Mastina.
Do what you will with it.
r u scum?
