Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:25 pm
because why
Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.In post 5775, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:because why
i can point you to two scum on the wagon.In post 5778, MURDERCAT wrote:Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.In post 5775, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:because why
well you town pretty much guarantees uno is scum.In post 5780, shellyc wrote:Seems like I'm dying. I wouldnt be surprised if that was the hammer, and I'll kindly ask everyone to provide scroll preferences probably -> we HAVE to hit scum and I don't have 100% trust in my reads given scum just got another easy miselim.
As requested: (ordered btw)
TOWN-ZONE
shellyc
MUSHSHAGANA
MURDERCAT
Bell
PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
Titus
NULL-ZONE
Dripping Goofball
Adorable
4 scum in:
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
Noraa
Fidget
a) your VCA. b) the game doesnt make sense if there isnt scum in those two.In post 5782, Titus wrote:@Taylor, why?
a) your VCA. b) the game doesnt make sense if there isnt scum in those two.In post 5782, Titus wrote:@Taylor, why?
Both Fidget and Flea on Shelley, this is extremely interesting especially when you take into account Fred’s interactions and wifom with those slots.In post 5755, DrippingGoofball wrote:Two or three would be scum on this, especially early game final wagon.In post 5746, MURDERCAT wrote:I find it hard to believe that any of those greens are wrong and I also doubt that wagon was all town.In post 3274, Hectic wrote:Votecount 1.20(FINAL)
[11]Toogeloo:Hopkirk,MURDERCAT, Titus,Toogeloo,Theta Alpine,MUSHSHAGANA,Lady Lambdadelta,Noraa, UNOwen, shellyc,BellHAMMER
[2] Tayl0r Swift:PookyTheMagicalBear,Bell
[2]Tayl0r Swift,Bell:Vaxkiller
[2] shellyc:Fidget, Flea The Magician
[1]AdorableNoraa:
[1] PookyTheMagicalBearGloria Cleary
[1] Adorable:Lapsa
[1] Not Voting:Zdenek
In post 5213, Adorable wrote:Gloria pretty much said my thoughts. I have been scum reading Noraa which makes me think scum more likely put a placeholder tag on me thinking I would pass the scroll to Noraa and then I said I was leaning on passing the scroll to Fidget. Scum must have panicked and ended up putting a placeholder tag on LL. I can also see this as a good frame attempt on me. Fidget's late vote on Fred looked like a bus and it makes alot of sense for scum to bus for town cred. Most often it's always the town players who get scum read after a scum flip for not being on a scum wagon.
In post 5764, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:i expect mafia behavior near deadline that favors mafia to be what zdenek did - which is basically lurk till deadline without slapping their vote on, not rushing to join a wagon on a green flip ESPECIALLY when the green flip gets to fucking fire a scroll at someone immediately after
Well, maybe I’m wrong on Flea then based on this since they were early.In post 4818, Hectic wrote:
Meant to quote this as well.In post 5767, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:specifically I would expect the mafia to be at the beginning of the tooge wagon or off-wagon lurking.
for d2 when Fred became "inevitable" I would expect mafia to be rushing to join the wagon near the end but not on it in the beginning
Obviously not Noraa. I don’t understand why she is still even in your list. It’s between Tayl0r or Fidget for me. Scum!Fred was either trying to save you or Fidget so if you’re town, it’s pretty easy. I wouldn’t be opposed to Tayl0r either because it’s super weird he didn’t include her in this hitlist.In post 5780, shellyc wrote:Seems like I'm dying. I wouldnt be surprised if that was the hammer, and I'll kindly ask everyone to provide scroll preferences probably -> we HAVE to hit scum and I don't have 100% trust in my reads given scum just got another easy miselim.
As requested: (ordered btw)
TOWN-ZONE
shellyc
MUSHSHAGANA
MURDERCAT
Bell
PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
Titus
NULL-ZONE
Dripping Goofball
Adorable
4 scum in:
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
Noraa
Fidget
i mean its pretty clear that fred was trying to make the most of me thinking he was town. fred wants me to look suspicious, and the people i scumread are pushing for the same. you say its between me and fidget. ive had a consistent scumread on fidget since day 1/2. as scum its unlikely id have that kind of foresight. i feel good about it being shelly/uno, titus, pooky, fidget.In post 5791, Gloria Cleary wrote:Obviously not Noraa. I don’t understand why she is still even in your list. It’s between Tayl0r or Fidget for me. Scum!Fred was either trying to save you or Fidget so if you’re town, it’s pretty easy. I wouldn’t be opposed to Tayl0r either because it’s super weird he didn’t include her in this hitlist.
player behavior is not randomIn post 5778, MURDERCAT wrote:Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.In post 5775, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:because why
except not_mafia.In post 5793, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:player behavior is not randomIn post 5778, MURDERCAT wrote:Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.In post 5775, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:because why
people do not flip a coin and decide whether to be on or off wagon.
they make informed decisions with the information they have
this is a pointless comment to makeIn post 5794, Tayl0r Swift wrote:except not_mafia.
^ was a pointless comment to makeIn post 5796, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:this is a pointless comment to make
this is a massive lieIn post 5781, Tayl0r Swift wrote:well you town pretty much guarantees uno is scum.
In post 5795, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:its not like hard set gloria. flea could be mafia bussing early but its unlikely that a lot of mafia bussed in the early section of the wagon- more likely they are in the later section after the wagon gained "inevitablility" - just from a behavioral idea.
Yeah possibly but there’s definitely something strange going on with those 3 slots: Shelley, Fidget, Flea because of the weird associatives of Fred switching his Adorable vote after she switched to Fidget and putting both Shelley and Flea in his hitlist.In post 3274, Hectic wrote: