This was my reads list coming in to the day. Keep in mind that it has now changed.
RadiantCowbells
Enter
Ankamius
Creature
Jingle
Reiuji
Liger
Formerfish
Vedith
Max
xtoxm
DDL/or
Meh. xtoxm/DDL is not a solve as I've stated before, so I kinda knew I had to do some reevaluating coming into today.
This game is tiring and hard because it's essentially nightless, and I'm not convinced we'll ever get an ignition before lylo. Scum have waited this long, what's a couple more days? There's a variety of reasons why ignition hasn't happened yet.
1. My locktown block isn't actually a locktown block and any ignition from here on out would obviously reveal scum within that block.
2. There is scum in a bystander like Jingle or Vedith and completely fine with letting this town core steamroll through mislynches.
3. Both scum are within the general PoE and igniting would make that obvious / decrease the paranoia / decrease the lynch pool.
For the most part, I think we lose if the first option is the case. I doubt anyone in this section is ever getting lynched unless someone has a eureka moment and makes a convincing case. Even then, probably the only one who could actually strong arm a lynch there would be RC. Either way, if there is scum in RC/Ank/Enter/Creature I think we just straight up lose. And I'm fine with that. I really don't think any of these four are ever ever scum and I will trade my life over this fact.
The second option is, I think most likely? Jingle and Vedith aren't really my top suspects in that case, was just using them as examples, but I rather think scum may have risked ignition already if the pool was exactly DDL/xtoxm or DDL/Max or something similar. This means one scum is probably in the general PoE—I don't think we've been so far off that this is not the case—but one is in a decent position, not necessarily lock town but in a good enough spot to wait around until a later ignition.
My solve? [DDL/Formerfish] exactly.
DDL is always scum here. Like, really really scum. I can even put bad grapes associatives aside—because those have been hashed out enough already—and DDL is still scum.
In post 5086, DrDolittle wrote:I'm fine with starting with me! I think I have a lot of associations since I've been here the whole time, so anyways at worst its information that
In post 5093, DrDolittle wrote:
if we are going through a lynch order solve, my lynch definitely gives the most information so
I don't see this progression ever coming from town, just scum that wants to survive a little longer.
He first states he's fine starting with lynching himself (he's not), and then that his lynch would "definitely give the most information." That statement is just so weird to make from his perspective and has more than a dash of LAMIST added to it. He then goes from saying his lynch will give the most information to voting mcqueen, a strong town read of his.
This is also not the behavior of town coming in today that believe his lynch is the best info lynch and is "totally fine lynching himself btw!" This is also coming from someone who has said:
Maxwell is a mislynch, DDL is scum!
Now, Creature will kill me if I continue on with preflip associatives so I'm not going to case that too much before a red flip here.
However, I do think it makes the most sense given the game state and my other reads. Max and xtoxm's posting today has been very town (regardless of how good you think it is, Enter), and I something just sort of clicked in my mind while I was rereading Vedith's ISO. I wish I could explain it beyond gut. Basically, his motivation/reads this game are very consistent, and not in a way that lends itself to a scum agenda to endgame. He believed DT vs Shoshin was SvT from the start—which is wrong but irrelevant—he's maintained his paranoia of me throughout the game, but not in a way where he's actively trying to set up my mislynch for later or bother to make sure his read is "believable" beyond gut. He's constantly been sure that scum lies among the people sitting back while Shoshin's lynch went through—a pool that includes any potential buddy he could have—and has had believable read progression on DDL who I consider the prime suspect as of right now.
Jingle has been hashed out enough, he's town here. Liger, I have a low level of paranoia about just because of his blatant "pocketing," but beyond that I have no reason to think he's scum. I never thought Gamma was a good case and I think all of his play yesterday in regards to the mcqueen wagon clears him. He's been one of the lower "PoE" slots more involved with trying to solve the game.
It's funny, Rei might actually be my weakest town read. Xtoxm is right, she has coasted for a long time. I don't necessarily think that makes her scum though, and I still find her ISO pretty pure. I also think scum!rei would try to artificially evolve her reads
somehow
over the last several days, instead of straight up admitting they've been stagnant.
That just leaves Formerfish as the leftovers. The slot I've only ever said was town because basically, others and RC said so. I think this slot makes most sense with the gamestate (as well as a partner for DDL). While the Formerfish slot hasn't been an active part of the lock town block pushing lynches and solving the game, the slot has basically been cleared by that block and basically artificially lock towned. This slot has never really been a lynch option and for that reason, scum can feel comfortable enough to not ignite until lylo even if one of them is in danger (DDL).
I also think DDL has come in knowing he might be the lynch today, or if not today, tomorrow. He's suddenly playing survivalistically and pushing what I think is a clear mislynch. Whatever, he knows he's not endgame material.
In post 5867, or wrote:@dann my scum readlist is
high likelihood
{formerfish, jingle, maxwell}
low likelihood
{Vedith, liger, dann, anka}
btw he's gonna explicitly not do T/S/T now just in case you were wondering he's not dumb
In post 4944, DrDolittle wrote:RAS was pretty mean to me. He comes in all gung-ho, but that evaporates as soon as he sees that I couldn't be mislynched that day. Now it could be that he's a forceful player, but what happened was he just went on whatever wagon was the biggest, and that doesn't seem like the type of play with that sort of entrance
4905's big letters also kind of helped.
This read is manufactured, straight up. It's not real. Now is it a manufactured read on town or scum? Well...
In post 5134, DrDolittle wrote:something like this
Enter
Creature
Reiuji Utsuho
Xtoxm
RadiantCowbells
Liger_Zero
mcqueen
Vedith
Ankamius
Dannflor
Jingle
RAS
MaxwellPuckett
DDL goes from Anka and Max as his top picks for scum with RAS being a middle pick amongst others as "less likely" scum. In his next reads list RAS suddenly moves to the bottom of the pile in a distancing move. RAS hadn't posted at all during that time. What changed? What changed was that RC/Enter/I started solving, RC started questioning DDL, and DDL was feeling the heat as we were discussing his possible lynch as either yesterday or today. Otherwise, this move is random.
RC, I know you've second guessed your Alisae clear at some point, and I'm kinda thinking you're instincts were correct in doubting there. It's possible I'm wrong here, and DDL's partner is someone like Rei, but this is what I find most likely. Obviously, DDL should be lynched first, and we can reevaluate after a flip.
But this is what I'm putting forth as my solve.
And I really really think DDL is scum.
RadiantCowbells
Enter
Ankamius
Creature
Vedith
Jingle
Liger
Max
xtoxm
Reiuji
Formerfish/RAS/Alisae
DDL/or