Mafiascum.net

Actually,

1/4 = 225%

3/9 =33% (removed myself and Mathblade)

Do we have just 11 people alive?

Math, here's the problem. I feel you're wrong but I don't want you and VP and elo because you'll just vote him and we'll lose.

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

In post 5851, Enchant wrote:Do we have just 11 people alive?

15. Four in hood. 11 out. The odds were the chances of hitting scum at random excluding Mathblade.

To be fair, if you exclude Galron, the random odds of hitting scum in and out of the hood become exactly even.

In post 5854, Titus wrote:

In post 5851, Enchant wrote:Do we have just 11 people alive?

15. Four in hood. 11 out. The odds were the chances of hitting scum at random excluding Mathblade.

To be fair, if you exclude Galron, the random odds of hitting scum in and out of the hood become exactly even.

So then why are you continually trying to not elim in the hood?

If you think VP and Galron are town push Nero or Cape

In post 5853, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

Correct, but shouldn't the odds be to the highest odds, even if we assume the scum in the hood.

Like if you insist, I'll vote VP solely because he and you cannot be in elo together.

It's never zero.

Already had game where "All Mafia Hood" existed, as well as "All Traitors" hood i mention.

In post 5855, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5854, Titus wrote:

In post 5851, Enchant wrote:Do we have just 11 people alive?

15. Four in hood. 11 out. The odds were the chances of hitting scum at random excluding Mathblade.

To be fair, if you exclude Galron, the random odds of hitting scum in and out of the hood become exactly even.

So then why are you continually trying to not elim in the hood?

If you think VP and Galron are town push Nero or Cape

I don't have a strong scumread in the hood at all. I'd rather push higher odds of a flip with higher strength of scum.

In post 5857, Titus wrote:

In post 5853, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

Correct, but shouldn't the odds be to the highest odds, even if we assume the scum in the hood.

Like if you insist, I'll vote VP solely because he and you cannot be in elo together.

I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

In post 5795, Nero Cain wrote:

In post 5788, Cape90 wrote:I think you have the higher chance of flipping mafia just on the virtue of you kinda just seeming to underplay things

If your argument is that you are town that means that I am correctly reading you and VP so...are you actully arguing that I'm wrong and that you are scum?

My argument is that you haven't been weighing the options, you just have had 1 static suspicion on VP and the only reason you see me as town is because I'm not VP. You literally don't have a good reason to TR me

In post 5860, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5857, Titus wrote:

In post 5853, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

Correct, but shouldn't the odds be to the highest odds, even if we assume the scum in the hood.

Like if you insist, I'll vote VP solely because he and you cannot be in elo together.

I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

I went over that cognitive disonnance. I'm not torpedoing it. I'm accepting that VP will likely be the lim. I'm just wanting to discuss everything, including the possibility of me being wrong or y'all being wrong. I'm willing to discuss any situation that's reasonably possible.

If that discussion is over, we should vote VP and end the day but it doesn't appear to be.

I already discussed my dissonance here.

Nero in hood with VP right?

some thoughts

1) i think it's really risky to not flip in the hood today. we might have a better chance at hitting scum if we flip someone like deas, but if he's town, we've gotten nowhere. and if the whole hood is alive at elo there's no shot we win tbh
2) i think if scum april hard pushes malc yday, she has a plan for today. if her plan was to disappear and let someone else lead, then i think she's partnered with someone else who is active and talkative and can lead instead (possibilities include VP, titus, maaaybe nero if VP is town, and if im thinking objectively, prob me)
3) there's no way the scumteam is all people who are lurking today

In post 5864, Enchant wrote:Nero in hood with VP right?

Yes. It's Nero Galron VP Cape.

In post 5862, Titus wrote:

In post 5860, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5857, Titus wrote:

In post 5853, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

Correct, but shouldn't the odds be to the highest odds, even if we assume the scum in the hood.

Like if you insist, I'll vote VP solely because he and you cannot be in elo together.

I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

I went over that cognitive disonnance. I'm not torpedoing it. I'm accepting that VP will likely be the lim. I'm just wanting to discuss everything, including the possibility of me being wrong or y'all being wrong. I'm willing to discuss any situation that's reasonably possible.

Except you’re not coming at it from a discussion of where you’re wrong.

It’s been proven you are.

It’s more you asserting things

The more you do this the more I want to discard what you are saying.

What actions are you doing to resolve the cognitive dissonance?

In post 5865, fireisredsir wrote:some thoughts

1) i think it's really risky to not flip in the hood today. we might have a better chance at hitting scum if we flip someone like deas, but if he's town, we've gotten nowhere. and if the whole hood is alive at elo there's no shot we win tbh
2) i think if scum april hard pushes malc yday, she has a plan for today. if her plan was to disappear and let someone else lead, then i think she's partnered with someone else who is active and talkative and can lead instead (possibilities include VP, titus, maaaybe nero if VP is town, and if im thinking objectively, prob me)
3) there's no way the scumteam is all people who are lurking today

Agreed

It’s why I like my VP Titus April Galron solve

It’s also ironically why I am not dead because if I die people listen to my reads. Because I almost never die.

I have moments where I waver but I keep coming back to that

In post 5865, fireisredsir wrote:some thoughts

1) i think it's really risky to not flip in the hood today. we might have a better chance at hitting scum if we flip someone like deas, but if he's town, we've gotten nowhere. and if the whole hood is alive at elo there's no shot we win tbh
2) i think if scum april hard pushes malc yday, she has a plan for today. if her plan was to disappear and let someone else lead, then i think she's partnered with someone else who is active and talkative and can lead instead (possibilities include VP, titus, maaaybe nero if VP is town, and if im thinking objectively, prob me)
3) there's no way the scumteam is all people who are lurking today

I think it's real life for April. I don't see April willing ceding her social confession.
I understand one.
I agree scum aren't all lurking, but I mostly expect it.

In post 5860, MathBlade wrote:I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

Tbf, I think people are just saying hood has 1 scum because that is the MOST LIKELY scenario, not because they are certain. As enchant points out, there are certainly exceptions, and we have no clue what is in scum to balance (such as a role that finds daytalk or something. )

I think Titus is using what feels most solid to her and you are using what feels most solid to you.

The primary drivers of my own scum read on Nero would he based on a number of setup assumptions that may or may not be true. Those assumptions are even mote complicated for people outside the hood.

it is real life for april but even without that she said she was going to take more of a backseat today

In post 5867, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5862, Titus wrote:

In post 5860, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5857, Titus wrote:

In post 5853, MathBlade wrote:

In post 5847, Titus wrote:1/4 = 25%

3/11 = 27%

Yes. That is factually correct.

However the entire game barring you thinks there is scum in the hood
AND
The odds of two places scum can never see of secret chat is absymally low

Even if assume kill masons N1 and N2

You’d have secret communication until Day 6 at best.

That’s just not feasible to pass review

Correct, but shouldn't the odds be to the highest odds, even if we assume the scum in the hood.

Like if you insist, I'll vote VP solely because he and you cannot be in elo together.

I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

I went over that cognitive disonnance. I'm not torpedoing it. I'm accepting that VP will likely be the lim. I'm just wanting to discuss everything, including the possibility of me being wrong or y'all being wrong. I'm willing to discuss any situation that's reasonably possible.

Except you’re not coming at it from a discussion of where you’re wrong.

It’s been proven you are.

It’s more you asserting things

The more you do this the more I want to discard what you are saying.

What actions are you doing to resolve the cognitive dissonance?

I've literally been asking about who could have agency captured me if I am wrong, but we aren't discussing those slots or putting any possibility of eliminating them because they're coasting.
I literally can't resolve the cognitive dissonance. It's my reads versus game health. Unless the rare event my reads change or town sentiment changes, there's nothing I can do to fix that rock in a hard place.

I need to sleep tho

Either way, don't understand why VP is better kill than Nero.
For me it's really opposite.

In post 5870, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 5860, MathBlade wrote:I am doing what is the highest odds AND where every player in the game but you agrees

Why are you torpedoing town agreement?

Tbf, I think people are just saying hood has 1 scum because that is the MOST LIKELY scenario, not because they are certain. As enchant points out, there are certainly exceptions, and we have no clue what is in scum to balance (such as a role that finds daytalk or something. )

I think Titus is using what feels most solid to her and you are using what feels most solid to you.

The primary drivers of my own scum read on Nero would he based on a number of setup assumptions that may or may not be true.

Those assumptions are even mote complicated for people outside the hood.

Did people claim in the hood? This seems to imply that. I don't want to know the roles if they did.