revO emaG - TENET

[Dandelion Wine]

Err, starts in backwards. You undermeant what I stood.

[Deacon Blues]

Ooh. I misunderstood. back to <3

[skitter30]

VOTE: ss

[skitter30]

skitter, if you're really town here and unhappy with the state of things then let's re-assess the full thread and go over everything with a clean slate put everyone back on the table and figure out who we wrongly wrote off. but i need to see the work there.

yeah. i'll do a write up with a few sentences abt each player

[skitter30]

I guess the only reason I wouldn't is if I believe in my ability to save myself, and not just for a few days, but permanently.

I guess the question needs to go out to the people who have experience with me: do you think that, assuming I am town, you might realistically be able to get enough good towntells on me in the next few days that you would feel comfortable trusting me all the way to endgame?

After PYP I can't imagine skitter's answer being yes. I really can't imagine a yes from many people, honestly. Probably Firebringer. Maybe Pooky.

ehhhhhh i'm gonna say probably not, not enough to let you go to endgame
or at least i can't promise that happening in that timeframe

i do like how you're reacting to this plan tho

[Something_Smart]

How did I just realize that Dunn replaced unwnd. lmao

[Something_Smart]

Yeah okay I agree that Titus is flipping town.

[skitter30]

if only everyone figured that out preflip ...

does this change anyone's minds on brian btw?

[Dandelion Wine]

Also apparently hp thinks i'm town now ...

And what do you feel about this?

[Dandelion Wine]

my response to "will you be able to townread me later" is "are you going to start playing differently"

Ask Cabd then. I was asking only people who knew me because I didn't expect helpful answers from the ones who didn't.

I mean... No?

[Something_Smart]

I think this is the right move.

UNVOTE: Turnstile Something_Smart

Not because I want to be turnstiled per se-- I'm pretty much right on the fence at the moment-- but because the ball isn't in my court. Getting a free kill on an eventual mis-exe is amazing, so you should take this if you think I'm going to have to be killed at some point.

A few notes about my play, to help people make this decision:
- I suck at mafia and I know I suck at mafia. Sorry. Confident scumreads probably ain't happening anytime soon.
- I should have more free time over the coming weeks than I've had this past one, but no promises.
- I probably won't keep up with the other thread. I spend a good chunk of my time on mobile and cross-quoting is a massive PITA.
- I... honestly don't know what has led people to get solid townreads on me in the past. It's very game dependent. I definitely become more readable over time; in almost all my best scumgames (including the recent PYP that skitter and I keep referencing) I have started off strong and then eventually screwed it up. So I ought to be MORE readable in the future, but it may not be enough.
- I'm very good with mechanics. I'm also very guilty of giving the mod too much credit with mechanical assumptions. I'm really unsure if my mechanical aptitude will be a blessing or a curse here.

[skitter30]

Almost50
PookyTheMagicalBear
Pisskop*
superbowl9
Petapan
GFITAC (Gamma Emerald/Dr Easy Bake)
Deacon Blues (fferyllt/borkjerfkin)
Dandelion Wine (Cephrir/Cabd)
midwaybear
Something_Smart
Firebringer
Lady Lambdadelta
skitter30

i'm gonna start off with the easy ones, and do the harder ones a bit later:
(this isn't necessarily ordered)

deacon blues - i strongly, strongly, strongly townread bork, and it's the sort of read i probably will not be evaluating unless i'm like literally in 3way with him (ehhhh maybe 5way but whatever). i like how he's sorting. i like how he's approaching the game. he keeps saying the right things at the same time. like idk i feel good with this. i don't know how to explain better but bork just obviously looks town to me. ffery herself i'm kinda meh on but she's the same slot as bork so she has to be town

dandelion - and the deacon read is very tied to the dandelion read. ffery strongly believes cabd is town, and i think she's waaaaaay better at reading him than i am. again i dont' actually townread ffery but she's in a slot with someone who is town, so the dandelion read is ultimately an extension of the bork read. if the bork ever waves (which i kinda doubt), the dandelion read will follow. on the actual play of the dandelion heads: ceph is kinda loosely +town, enough that i'd independantly give him a pass for today ig. cabd is eh kinda tricker for me to read but reevaluating on me upon the whole bell-crumb fiasco probably doesn't come from scum, he can just keep going on tunneling me, and the reevaluation kinda looked organic

gamma hydra - his whole reaction to his first wagon + claim looked town. he was reevaluating throughout that whole incident in real-time, in an emotional way that i think he'd have a hard time faking. most of the townread comes from there. this is the sort of read that will degrade over time if i don't keep seeing townie things, but i'm satisfied enough for today that i want to take them off of the table for now

midway bear - he's kinda awkward, and like i've seen him be awkward as scum, but it looked different? like he keeps making observations (esp. abt pr/claims) that really probably shouldnt' be said at that moment but i have a hard time seeing scum!him saying those things in that moment. like i don't think he like barrels in and outright states the claim/pr stuff that half the thread is talking around as scum, and he's done that a few times. again not a *super* strong townread, and like this won't take me to endgame with him, but it's enough for a day2 pass i think. i do owe his iso a reread i think, but it's not gonna happen at this moment, maybe later today.

lld - i talked about this one relatively recently, i think, but i'll do it again. lld is making several ~performative~ pushes (i.e. on superbowl, the fake dayvig, etc), which i don't necessarily, like, like. but, i think that if she were scum, she'd actually be going somewhere with those pushes. like they're just kinda happening, but she isn't really doing anything with the output (in other words, i imagine that if she's scum, she actually tries to get momentum going on either superbowl or deacon after those pushes, but instead she's kinda been backing off and letting them fizzle out). in my mind, if she's scum, the purpose of the pushes is to try to make those people limmable, and she's just not following up on them in that way, which makes me think she isn't trying to create room for misflips, but that she's trying to actually sort people (in a way that i don't necessarily like, but whatever). don't see myself voting her in the near future either.

ok will followup with the others a bit later
it also has occured to me that my fire read as decayed and that i don't really tr him anymore.

[skitter30]

Also apparently hp thinks i'm town now ...

And what do you feel about this?

just noting once again that their progressions make no sense

[skitter30]

I think this is the right move.

UNVOTE: Turnstile Something_Smart

Not because I want to be turnstiled per se-- I'm pretty much right on the fence at the moment-- but because the ball isn't in my court. Getting a free kill on an eventual mis-exe is amazing, so you should take this if you think I'm going to have to be killed at some point.

A few notes about my play, to help people make this decision:
- I suck at mafia and I know I suck at mafia. Sorry. Confident scumreads probably ain't happening anytime soon.
- I should have more free time over the coming weeks than I've had this past one, but no promises.
- I probably won't keep up with the other thread. I spend a good chunk of my time on mobile and cross-quoting is a massive PITA.
- I... honestly don't know what has led people to get solid townreads on me in the past. It's very game dependent. I definitely become more readable over time; in almost all my best scumgames (including the recent PYP that skitter and I keep referencing) I have started off strong and then eventually screwed it up. So I ought to be MORE readable in the future, but it may not be enough.
- I'm very good with mechanics. I'm also very guilty of giving the mod too much credit with mechanical assumptions. I'm really unsure if my mechanical aptitude will be a blessing or a curse here.

aw now i feel a bit bad :/
i think that this (along with your whole reaction to this turnstile thing) is possibly the towniest post you've made in the whole game ^
i think it's mechanically optimal but i probably don't think you're flipping scum atm
i wish i was better at reading you, sorry :/

[Dandelion Wine]

Also apparently hp thinks i'm town now ...

And what do you feel about this?

just noting once again that their progressions make no sense

Okay that was my assumption but one never knows.

You and ceph can make a fort called "No Hench Princesses Allowed"

[Something_Smart]

i think it's mechanically optimal but i probably don't think you're flipping scum atm

It's only mechanically optimal if people do think I'm scum and don't expect to change their minds. If you don't think I'm scum, try to sell that to the others.

[Dandelion Wine]

I mean, unless scum misses a kill (and all protectives have presumably outed at this point because a forwards protective if one exists would have CC'd Bell during claim-a-polooza, I think?) or we no-elim at some point, then we go into the merge at evens.

So even if I were not scum reading you and merely null reading you, I'd be like "hop into the death chute for the odds"

I wish I could town read the "yeah I'll go" thing but this is like dance game, scum can talk about how of COURSE they'd leave the dance right up until it actually happens for easy town points.

[Something_Smart]

I would be surprised if there weren't some kind of vig, for one, and for two there exist other kill-stopping roles besides doctor (JK, bulletproof, commuter, hider) who may not have CC'd Bell. I'd like to believe that Cakez gave us enough ways to get on odds that one would likely trigger-- especially with what's probably a strongman, making the doctor less likely to do that.

And it's not exactly like a dance game; what you said is why I voted first. I'm not going to be camping the thread with my finger on the vote button. I've already claimed, you know my reads, you can (and should) blitz the hammer on me without giving me time to react if you decide that's the right course.

I you think I take that risk as scum... well, I'd certainly consider it. But we've already established that my deepwolf potential is essentially nil. I would be saving my neck now only to get myself killed a few days down the line, and risking giving town a free execution in the process.

[skitter30]

i think it's mechanically optimal but i probably don't think you're flipping scum atm

It's only mechanically optimal if people do think I'm scum and don't expect to change their minds. If you don't think I'm scum, try to sell that to the others.

i'm not sure it's that strong a read :/

[Deacon Blues]

I would be surprised if there weren't some kind of vig, for one, and for two there exist other kill-stopping roles besides doctor (JK, bulletproof, commuter, hider) who may not have CC'd Bell. I'd like to believe that Cakez gave us enough ways to get on odds that one would likely trigger-- especially with what's probably a strongman, making the doctor less likely to do that.

Cabd, setup-wise what do you think about this?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't think it makes a lot of sense for SS to think about this as a bonus vig if he's a scum here - his mindset about this is very very town-oriented.

I see the wifom logic that SS could be scum trying to town-cred off a potential self-sacrifice play but I don't think he makes that play as scum here because it's quite possible town just decides to take the bonus elim esp going from evens -> odds in this type of game and like giving the town a bonus elimination as scum is just such a ++EV play for townside that I don't think Scum!SS takes that risk.

If you're voting SS as scum, imo you should change it to a turnstile vote because its strictly better than voting him out here.

I like Peta a lot more after reading through his posting last night.

[Dandelion Wine]

I would be surprised if there weren't some kind of vig, for one, and for two there exist other kill-stopping roles besides doctor (JK, bulletproof, commuter, hider) who may not have CC'd Bell. I'd like to believe that Cakez gave us enough ways to get on odds that one would likely trigger-- especially with what's probably a strongman, making the doctor less likely to do that.

Cabd, setup-wise what do you think about this?

If I were a protective in forwards and didn't CC bell I'd expect to instantly die upon claiming for not CCing.

Vig doesn't fit this setup. And more importantly in what world does a vig not shoot last night if able. So many lurkfucks that could have had the forwards thread cleared sooner. And if later night there's only like two people it could be and neither are playing like one.

[Dandelion Wine]

I am posting via voice while I drive by the way. Anyways I don't like the setup speculation at all and I think that assuming there is a strong man still is way ahead of yourself unless you already know there is one in the setup due to being red. Even if you town read bell why not also consider that he could have been blocked or redirected or otherwise interfered with?

[Deacon Blues]

depends on which thread a vig exists in, but yeah. I feel like there were decent vig pick in the reverse timestream, too.

pedit also yeah.

[Almost50]

Just following my heart

hmmmm?

And after your ringing endorsement of my play last game!

I'm saving us all the time. My plan is to pressure you to get Gamma to claim you're the cult leader who can win with town .. bla bla bla..