Mini 1599: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #600 (ISO) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:56 pm

Post by Aronis »

Im still here.
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Post Post #601 (ISO) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:50 pm

Post by awesomeusername »

@Rem: I was thinking about that. I can't decide whether it would be better to govern an obvious town, like me, because it would probably remove me from the lynch pile, or a secondary suspect, in case reinoe's lying and can't actually govern. Actually, if we make reinoe govern a suspect, it should be whoever's most likely to be his scumbuddy (aside from the agreed-upon lynch). We'll need to run the governed player up to L-0 in order to actually confirm the govern. Wait, actually:

@Mod: Hypothetically, if a governor were to bold "Govern: [playername]" in the thread, activating his action, would you publicly confirm that [playername] is in fact governed and removed from the lynch pool in a mod post?


This would confirm reinoe as not-strongman, and I agree that this should happen today.
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Post Post #602 (ISO) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:03 pm

Post by awesomeusername »

Aronis, who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #603 (ISO) » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:17 pm

Post by Marky Mark »

Meant to write this last night, but wifi issues :(

Looking back to the xdfagent wagon from yesterday, the votes that stuck out to me as potential scum were Darklight/Aronis. Darklight for the way he tried to pass it off as pressure and Aronis for justifying it as a policy lynch and then trying to hedge his bets with stuff like . stood out by reione for being an actual well thought-out case. Townpoints to him.
awesomeusername wrote:I'm pretty sure the strongman isn't Aronis or reinoe due to claim shenanigans. In fact I'm heavily leaning towards DarkLight. Massclaim first, though. We might be in MYLO.

This seems pretty accurate. If Reionoe is scum, I certainly think it is unlikely he's strongman. Aronis maybe, but darklight seems the most likely.

reinoe wrote:
DarkLightA wrote:
awesomeusername wrote:Targeted Aronis Night 1, Not_Mafia Night 2, Aronis Night 3. I pseudo-crumbed the first two by talking about them in my first post the next day. Nobody targeted any of those people on the nights I watched them, disappointingly.

Heh, I'm blind.

Reinoe, I'm not pleased that your first post in a potential MyLo is a vote. I think no lynch is probably a very viable option, as long as Marky Mark doesn't claim that would nullify that.

I don't agree with the forum convention of No Lynching in potential MyLo. And I will never be convinced that Rem is town.


But then given the really towny post by rem I mentioned in my previous post the tunelling here is a little scummy. Lynch vs no lynch wise I would like to hear your reasoning. I am kinda sitting on the fence right now as would narrow things down a little and let awesome watch someone, but could potentially lose us the game if multiple factions involved and theyve just happened to have overlaspping kills so far.

awesomeusername wrote:@Rem: I was thinking about that. I can't decide whether it would be better to govern an obvious town, like me, because it would probably remove me from the lynch pile, or a secondary suspect, in case reinoe's lying and can't actually govern. Actually, if we make reinoe govern a suspect, it should be whoever's most likely to be his scumbuddy (aside from the agreed-upon lynch). We'll need to run the governed player up to L-0 in order to actually confirm the govern. Wait, actually:

Surely we get Reinoe to govern a potential scumbuddy, so that if he's telling the truth he's cleared of strongman, and if he has fakeclaimed we have a decent chance of lynching scum?

@aun I meant scum lies within aronis/darklight/reionoe by poe in my previous post. I'm reading you as very town, and I'm starting to think rem is probably town too, so that is who is left.

Overall, I think darklight is probably the most likely to be strongman but I don't want to rule aronis out yet - certainly not before he has claimed his actual cards. Will not vote until we have decided what we are doing with regard to stuff like no lynching or triggering reionoe's governor
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Post Post #604 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:02 am

Post by awesomeusername »

Oh yeah, I forgot Aronis hadn't full claimed yet. He should do that.

For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure Aronis isn't the strongman, moreso than just about anyone else. His play yesterday makes no sense if he's not actually a roleblocker of some sort.

Marky Mark wrote:
Surely we get Reinoe to govern a potential scumbuddy, so that if he's telling the truth he's cleared of strongman, and if he has fakeclaimed we have a decent chance of lynching scum?
Yeah, that does make more sense with my previous interpretation of the role, but if the mod publicly confirms that the govern succeeded, we may as well keep our options open. I'll look back through the thread later today and decide who I think is most likely to be scumbuddies with reinoe.
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Post Post #605 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:57 am

Post by reinoe »

Marky Mark wrote:

But then given the really towny post by rem I mentioned in my previous post the tunelling here is a little scummy. Lynch vs no lynch wise I would like to hear your reasoning. I am kinda sitting on the fence right now as would narrow things down a little and let awesome watch someone, but could potentially lose us the game if multiple factions involved and theyve just happened to have overlaspping kills so far.


In Mylo we can throw votes around without worry of a quicklynch.
In MyLo scum has less influence on the discussion because it's four townies (who's opinions are honest) vs two scum (who's opinions are dishonest). Furthermore since this is "____ Idea Mafia", if we "no lynch" we're just serving up a PR for the scum to kill.
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #606 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:29 am

Post by reinoe »

Red are the people who've been on every lynch. Green represents confirmed townies. Orange will be the werewolves...
Zaicon wrote:
Final Vote Count - Day 1


:right:
Ki-Gi (7):
Marquis, Aronis, Not_Mafia, Marky Mark, Ki-Gi, DarkLightA, reinoe

Not_Mafia (2):
awesomeusername,
Lissa

Reminiscence (1):
Bins


No Vote (3):
ac1983fan,
Reminiscence,
xfdagentx42

.


Zaicon wrote:
Final Vote Count - Day 2


:right:
ac1983fan (6):
Lissa,
awesomeusername,
Marky Mark, Not_Mafia,
Reminiscence,
xfdagentx42

Reminiscence (2):
reinoe, Aronis
Lissa (1):
ac1983fan

Not_Mafia (1):
DarkLightA

No Vote (0)




Zaicon wrote:
Final Vote Count - Day 3


:right:
xfdagentx42 (5):
Not_Mafia,
DarkLightA, Aronis, reinoe,
xfdagentx42


No Vote (3):
awesomeusername, Marky Mark, Reminiscence




I'm actually a little more disturbed by Aronis' "policy lynch" of xfd.

XF's play was not the greatest so Aronis should have been able to come up with better reasons for a lynch than "policy".

Lastly all the scum have had town discards. Ki-gi discarded Inno Child. AC discarded vanilla townie.

Granted some of our townies also had town discards, but 2 were negative utility town.
VOTE: Aronis
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #607 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:49 am

Post by DarkLightA »

I'm back!

Reinoe, can you respond to the comment I made in #586?
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Post Post #608 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:07 am

Post by reinoe »

I acted before thinking fully. As exemplified by one of my cards "Mafia 1-shot governor". I was focused more on the "one shot governor" and not on the town.
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #609 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:20 pm

Post by Aronis »

awesomeusername wrote:Aronis, who do you think is scum?

Rem/Dark

Mayyybe reinoe.
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Post Post #610 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:23 pm

Post by Aronis »

awesomeusername wrote:Oh yeah, I forgot Aronis hadn't full claimed yet. He should do that.

For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure Aronis isn't the strongman, moreso than just about anyone else. His play yesterday makes no sense if he's not actually a roleblocker of some sort.

Marky Mark wrote:
Surely we get Reinoe to govern a potential scumbuddy, so that if he's telling the truth he's cleared of strongman, and if he has fakeclaimed we have a decent chance of lynching scum?
Yeah, that does make more sense with my previous interpretation of the role, but if the mod publicly confirms that the govern succeeded, we may as well keep our options open. I'll look back through the thread later today and decide who I think is most likely to be scumbuddies with reinoe.


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Post Post #611 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:30 pm

Post by reinoe »

reinoe wrote:
Town Conspiracy Theorist
Werewolf
1-Shot Mafia Governor

Aronis wrote:

Werewolf Roleblocker
Town Conspiracy Theorist
Vanilla Townie


Guize look. Confscum.
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #612 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:09 pm

Post by Aronis »

reinoe wrote:
reinoe wrote:
Town Conspiracy Theorist
Werewolf
1-Shot Mafia Governor

Aronis wrote:

Werewolf Roleblocker
Town Conspiracy Theorist
Vanilla Townie


Guize look. Confscum.

66. Conspiracy Theorist (Gets result "Alien" or "Not Alien"; investigates as "Alien")
67. Conspiracy Theorist (Gets result "Alien" or "Not Alien"; investigates as "Alien")
68. Conspiracy Theorist (Gets result "Alien" or "Not Alien"; investigates as "Alien")

Guize look. A VI!
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Post Post #613 (ISO) » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:36 pm

Post by awesomeusername »

… You do realize there are 3 Town Conspiracy Theorist cards, right?

Reinoe's play today has been bothering me; I feel like he's ignoring some key factors when taking stances. The more I think, though, the more town some of his earlier play (e.g. governor claim Day 1) seems. It would be really weird for scum to claim a confirmable role they don't have on Day 1, so I'm pretty inclined to think that reinoe is, in fact, a governor (which makes me more sure that DarkLight is the strongman). Regardless, here's my notes on who his partner would be if he's in group scum and not a governor:

  • Aronis - Reinoe's one direct interaction with him was when Aronis and Lissa appeared to be the two main candidates for Day 2 lynch. He asked Lissa and Aronis what they thought of each other. As far as I can tell, he didn't react to the answer, but to be fair, he went V/LA shortly after this. Aronis doesn't seem to have addressed reinoe much either. Neither of them have interacted much with anybody, though. This isn't a bad option. If they are partners, though, they decided to bus today, since they suspect each other and are kinda conflicting right now.
  • DarkLight - If they're partners, is a strange bus. DarkLight's doubt of reinoe's claim could be somewhat forced bussing, or they're not partners. But reinoe pretty much has a blank spot as far as DarkLight goes; he noticeably seems to be ignoring him in . Also, it's right around that DarkLight went from "no reason to disbelieve xfda" to "actually, xfda's pretty scummy."
  • Marky Mark - Marky Mark has reinoe in an interesting place in his reads at the moment where reinoe's in his scum bloc but he's not pushing him at all. This is fine and I understand the reasoning, but also seems typical of what scum in this position would be doing. They've actually had some real interaction though, and while neither is trying particularly hard to probe the other person, Marky Mark hasn't been afraid to give a read. Marky Mark has been softly supporting reinoe's pet read, too.
  • Reminiscence - That would be some serious bussing. I highly, highly doubt Rem is reinoe's partner. I mean, bussing is one thing, but reinoe's been tunneling him the entire game.


I'd say the likelihood is something like DarkLight > Marky Mark = Aronis > Reminiscence, which is close to how I'm reading these people independently of reinoe anyway. I think I'd have reinoe govern Marky Mark if we need to run someone to L-1. The more I think about this, though, I feel pretty good about believing reinoe's claim. I'm also really bad at association hunting because bussing always throws me off. :/

Everyone's card claims check out for me, also, in that I'd probably very strongly consider the same choice they did if they actually received those cards (with the exception of Rem, but we've been over this).

@reinoe: Any thoughts on DarkLight? Are your points in 606 just thinking out loud or are you saying this is why you think Aronis is scum?

@Aronis: Cool, thanks. We all need to come to an agreement of some sort pretty soon as to whether and who we're lynching as well as whether reinoe's using his govern and on who.
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Post Post #614 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:24 am

Post by awesomeusername »

Spoiler: Claimed Cards
ac9183fan

???
1-shot Vig

Werewolf
???
Vanilla Townie

Aronis

Werewolf
Roleblocker

Town
Conspiracy Theorist
Vanilla Townie

awesomeusername

Town
Watcher

Townie
, Watchlisted
Mafia Goon

Bins

Town?,
Bulletproof

Town
1-shot Governor
Vanilla Townie

DarkLightA

Werewolf
1-shot Bulletproof

Townie
, Hirsute
Vanilla Townie

Ki-Gi

Town?
Hider

Werewolf
???
Town Innocent Child

Lissa

Alien
Prober

Town
Nurse
Town Innocent Childkiller

Marky Mark

Serial Killer
2-shot Bulletproof

Townie
, Vanilla
Werewolf Mason

Marquis

???
1-shot Day Vig

Town
???
Mafia Godfather

Not_Mafia

???
Tracker

Town
???
Wrong Place at Wrong Time Townie

reinoe

Mafia,
1-shot Governor

Town
Conspiracy Theorist
Werewolf (Vanilla)

Reminiscence

Townie,
Vanilla

Town
Mason
Mafia Doctor

xfdagentx42

Town
Cop-of-all-Trades

Townie
, Vanilla
Alien Vanillaiser

Actually, looking at the card claims, DarkLight claimed he had Hirsute Townie with ~4-5% chance of being counterclaimed (I think?), which seems like an unnecessary risk if he's the strongman. Everyone else could be scum and safe from counterclaims.

Also, my argument that Marky Mark's not the strongman has been bothering me. I kinda think staying quiet about the Mafia Mason thing actually makes sense if he's scum. If he had objected and said Rem was confscum, he would've run the risk of Rem being town and getting caught; if he had supported Rem, he'd be giving up an easy lynch of someone of a different alignment. I still find Marky Mark in general pretty town, though. His reads have evolved pretty naturally, I think.

So by PoE I now have Marky Mark 2nd on my list. I think we should lynch one of DarkLight and Marky Mark and have reinoe govern the other. I would still prefer to lynch DarkLight.

@reinoe: What do think of the statement that Aronis can't be a strongman due to his claim? Who do you think is the strongman, or do you think that we're jumping to conclusions saying there is one?
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Post Post #615 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:28 am

Post by Marky Mark »

reinoe wrote:In Mylo we can throw votes around without worry of a quicklynch.
In MyLo scum has less influence on the discussion because it's four townies (who's opinions are honest) vs two scum (who's opinions are dishonest). Furthermore since this is "____ Idea Mafia", if we "no lynch" we're just serving up a PR for the scum to kill.

This doesn't really make sense - surely the larger proportion of scum to town there are, the easier they will be to find statisticly. Also, scum will NK a PR anyways after we lynch (providing they are semi-competent) so this is an odd argument to make. Don't get me wrong, I can think of some good reasons to lynch over no-lynch, but your explanation don't really make sense from a town pov.

With regard to Reinoe, I think it is fairly likely he's a governor (or at least has governor as one of his cards) but a Reionoe/darklight scumteam could certainly make sense, with darklight as strongman and reionoe as governor. You mention to the contrary aun, but this looks to me like darklight is just commenting on the bins thing because it was big enough that people would expect him to do so - he doesn't really seem to follow it up much afterwards.

I am worried about the situation where reinoe is governor, but also scum as in this case if we go through with the plan to lynch someone and have him trigger his governor he could simply not trigger his role and let an innocent die, which would win him the game if we are in mylo.

The optimum play to me would be to lynch darklight and have reionoe save him with governor. If reionoe is scum and doesn't save him then we lynch the top scum candidate. If reionoe saves him we vote no-lynch, which would confirm reionoe isn't the strongman, and narrow the pool down. The only player I can think who would be strongman if it wasn't darklight would be aun. He has been super-town all game but unlike reionoe and aronis his role hasn't been corroborated by his play. You mentioned you crumbed your role, perhaps you could point this out? It still seems to me that the smart money is on it being Darklight though.
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Post Post #616 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:43 am

Post by awesomeusername »

Yeah, but the way governor works according to the role PMs on the wiki (which the mod linked us to in ) is that reinoe posts "Govern: name" in bold in the thread and then whoever he picked can't be lynched. It's not a post-twilight save, where someone gets lynched and then unlynched, if I understand correctly. I'm hoping this means we don't actually have to run up votes on a person to verify the govern. Still waiting on clarification though; we should definitely work this out before acting.

I did pick DarkLight as most likely to be reinoe's buddy, if that wasn't clear.

Here's my crumb:
awesomeusername wrote:
Wat
sup?

VOTE: Ki-Gi
awesomeusername wrote:
Ch
ose Ki-Gi over Reminiscence primarily because the role he discarded was town. Also Doctor would be a fairly good scum role in this setup since there's likely multiple factions and all.

@DarkLightA: Any particular reason for choosing Not_Mafia?
awesomeusername wrote:
Er
, generally choosing a power role makes your side more likely to win, so you really should choose a power role given the option.

You say you had reasons besides preferring to be a VT? Like what?
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Post Post #617 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:02 am

Post by Marky Mark »

awesomeusername wrote:Yeah, but the way governor works according to the role PMs on the wiki (which the mod linked us to in 590) is that reinoe posts "Govern: name" in bold in the thread and then whoever he picked can't be lynched.

My bad, I've played games before where it was used during twilight to cancel a lynch and I jumped to conclusions. Best course of action seems to be to wait for the mod to confirm the issue then. This also makes your point about reinoe governing me make more sense.

The crumb by you seems fairly legit - why did you choose to watch the players you did?
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Post Post #618 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:16 am

Post by DarkLightA »

Awesomeusername, I was thinking about what you said about mark. For Marky to be strongman, his cards must be:
Werewolf Mason
Mafia Strongman
Werewolf alignment

I'm convinced that werewolf is the only (killing) anti-town faction. If anyone disagrees I'd like to hear why.

The thing is, if he were to point out the mafia mason thing as town, the only possible role for him to reasonably pick would be town mason. As it was very possible that other masons existed, this would be a very risky call.
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Post Post #619 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:24 am

Post by DarkLightA »

I'm still troubled by . It seems unbelievable that he missed the word "Town" right before what he massively highlighted, especially since his post right before that was quoting a post that also clearly included alignment in the role.

If this theory is correct, the claim was low-risk, as the only card that could be counter-claimed would be "Scum one-shot governor", and maybe if he was fakeclaiming he even had this in his cards, in which case it was a bulletproof claim, which would give massive towncred, at least it did for me.
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Post Post #620 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:27 am

Post by DarkLightA »

I crumbed my role too:

DarkLightA wrote:
Reminiscence wrote:That's a bad analogy lol

T
he thing is, I actually don't think it is a bad analogy.
O
f the town-oriented options you had, several would provide more potential power than you—if you're telling the truth—have as VT.
W
ouldn't it be better with
potential
power rather than
no
power?

DarkLightA wrote:
N
eed some explanation here: what's the slip?

DarkLightA wrote:
O
kay, Reminisence, we'll wait for a response from the mod and go from there.
@
N
ot_Mafia, thanks for the explanation.

DarkLightA wrote:
E
nough scum slips for now, guys.
S
uddenly this game has turned into a competition of who can act the most suspiciously.

DarkLightA wrote:
Reminiscence wrote:
reinoe wrote:
Zaicon wrote:

Discarded RolesReminiscence:
Mafia
--->Doctor<---


This right here is enough for a vote. Really it is.

And what's so wrong with that again?

B
e glad you're not in more trouble than you are.
P
icking doctor instead of townie is really bad. Like
really
bad. The mason mafia thing might save you though, so I'd wait for that if I were you.

TOWN ONE S BP

By the end of that I realized that I was taking on a greater task than I initially thought, so I ended up shortening the role name :giggle:
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Post Post #621 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:02 pm

Post by Aronis »

Sorry. Im not good at picking up on claims.
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Post Post #622 (ISO) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:02 pm

Post by Aronis »

Aronis wrote:Sorry. Im not good at picking up on claims.

*crumbs
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Post Post #623 (ISO) » Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:56 am

Post by awesomeusername »

I watched Aronis night 1 because he seemed the most likely to be town, between catching scum and what I had as a townslip.

Night 2, I was deciding between Marky Mark, Not_Mafia, Lissa, and xfda. I decided xfda and Lissa were possible mislynches and threw them out, and I think I choose Not_Mafia over Marky Mark because I figured scum were more likely to be afraid of him, and he was cleared of werewolf and mafia and he had claimed that he had a night action.

Night 3, I was deciding between Marky Mark, DarkLight, and Aronis. I submitted Marky Mark and then realized I should be strongman-hunting and watched Aronis because he was cleared and I wanted him to die the least. I had a plan to ask DarkLight whether he was roleblocked or not; if he answered correctly he was less likely to be strongman, but Aronis needed to be alive in order for this to work.

@DarkLight 618: If those were Marky Mark's cards, and he wanted to comment on the Mafia Mason thing while still having a town alias, I'm pretty sure he would've had to claim town [some mafia role]. He couldn't be a mason unless he drew two mason cards because he discarded one. But yes, I agree that not remarking on the Mafia Mason thing might have been wise for scum.

@Marky Mark: Did you crumb?

@MOD: Request prod on Reminiscence.

I also request an answer to my question, please:

awesomeusername wrote:
@Mod: Hypothetically, if a governor were to bold "Govern: [playername]" in the thread, activating his action, would you publicly confirm that [playername] is in fact governed and removed from the lynch pool in a mod post?
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DarkLightA
DarkLightA
Mafia Scum
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DarkLightA
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Post Post #624 (ISO) » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:16 am

Post by DarkLightA »

awesomeusername wrote:@DarkLight 618: If those were Marky Mark's cards, and he wanted to comment on the Mafia Mason thing while still having a town alias, I'm pretty sure he would've had to claim town [some mafia role]. He couldn't be a mason unless he drew two mason cards because he discarded one. But yes, I agree that not remarking on the Mafia Mason thing might have been wise for scum.

Yeah, looking back on it that was a completely flawed argument. The only reasons I can think of for him not pointing it out if he is strongman are:
1. He forgot about it.
2. He didn't want to commit to a fakeclaim that early in the game.

The latter is a real possibility.
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