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Team Mafia: Young and Beautiful

https://forum.mafiascum-staging.net/viewtopic.php?t=61053

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Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 6:45 pm
by wgeurts
What's the best way to enter as a replacement?

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 6:48 pm
by wgeurts
If we are going to replace Esp's now dead slot, I recommend we approach plotinus. His town game has caught my eye for reasons that can't yet be named.
Lets just say he knows what he's doing and his insight would be helpful.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 8:09 pm
by Aneninen
Aren't we allowed to replace in someone there? Eg. you, Wgeurts?
Is Esp dead now? I didn't see that.

I don't know Plotinus's game but if you think he's suitable, okay.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 9:01 pm
by wgeurts
Esp apparentely just posted.
Espeonage, do you want to be replaced or take a dead slot?

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 9:02 pm
by wgeurts
Anen, I sent a replacement PM as we were at risk of getting a penalty which would of meant that Esp would be in my dead slot. According to hito, the mod, he's just posted. We need to see what he thinks.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 9:15 pm
by wgeurts
Espeonage wrote:I'll continue.

I just started a new job four days a week in a different city to the one I live where I still have uni two days a week. Been pretty hellish but I only have two weeks of uni left and after that I'm fine.


I canceled the replacement request.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 9:35 pm
by Aneninen
Okay, I'll summarize my lists then.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 11:05 pm
by Aneninen
Okay, this is gonna be hard, therefore I spoiler it.

In short. It's not a simple VCA. It's about independent scum/town votes, derivation of VCA and Ockham's Razor.

Spoiler:
Initial conditions
(Independent scum/town votes, wagons and derivatives.)

singersigner. (Empire.) (Zar.) +4
Mastin2. +3
Cheetory6. +2
Untrod Tripod. +2
Formerfish. (Marquis.) +1
Gammagooey. +1
Actiondan. +1
Vezokpiraka. 0
Shadoweh. –2
4nxi3ty. (Deasvail) –2
ChannelDelibird. –3
Espeonage. N/A

________

Main-Assume:
Singer is scum.
1 consists of (Cheetory, Vezok, Mastin)
1 consists of (Cheetory, Vezok, Untrod, Channel)
1 consists of (Cheetory, Untrod, Mastin, Gamma)

Assume:
Mastin is scum.
--: Untrod and Former = town
--: Cheetory and Vezok = town
--: Channel, Vezok and Cheetory = town
--: Cheetory, Gamma, Untrod = town
Remaining scum here, from most likely: Actiondan (gap) Shadow, Channel, 4nxi3tx.
Possible team: Titus, Singer, Mastin, Actiondan.

Error factor: Former, Gamma, Shadow.
Side conclusion: Mastin NAND Untrod is scum. (Max 1 here.)

Assume:
Cheetory is scum.
--: Mastin, Channel and Vezok = town
--: Untrod, Shadoweh or Actiondan = scum
--: Shadow, Cheetory, Untrod, Channel, 4nxi3ty = town
--: Vezok, Mastin = town
--: Vezok, Untrod and Channel = town
Remaining scum here, from most likely: Action, Former, Untrod, Shadow, Gamma.
Possible team: Titus, Singer, Cheetory, Action.

Possible contradiction: Untrod, Shadow (if Action = town)
Error factor: Untrod, Shadow, Gamma, Former
Side conclusion: Mastin XOR Cheetory is scum.

Assume:
Untrod is scum.
--: Shadow, Cheetory, Action, Channel and 4nxi3ty = town
--: Former, Mastin = town
--: Shadow, Action, 4nxi3ty, Former, Channel and Gamma = town
--: Cheetory, Mastin, Vezok = scum (return value 2/3)
--: Vezok, Cheetory, Channel = town
Possible team: Titus, Singer, Untrod, ?Vezok

Possible contradiction: Cheetory, Mastin, Vezok
This version leads to contradicting reads.

________

Main-Assume:
Singer is town.
1 consists of (Untrod, Gamma, Mastin, Cheetory)
2 consists of (Cheetory, Mastin, Vezok)
1 consists of (Vezok, Cheetory, Untrod, Channel)
1 OR 2 conisits of (Untrod, Shadow, Action)

Assume:
Mastin is scum.
--: Channel, Vezok and Cheetory = town
--: Untrod, Shadoweh nand Action = scum
--: Untrod, Gamma nand Cheetory = scum
--: Untrod and Former = town
--: Cheetory or Vezok = scum
--: Vezok, Cheetory, Untrod and Channel = 2 of them scum
Possible team: Titus, Mastin, ?Cheetory, ?Vezok, ?Untrod

Possible contradiction: Vezok, Untrod, Channel, Cheetory?
Error factor: Action, 4nxi3ty, Gamma
This version leads to contradicting reads.

Assume:
Cheetory is scum.
--: Mastin, Channel and Vezok = town
--: Untrod, Shadoweh and Action = 2 of them scum
--: Shadow, Action, Untrod, Channel and 4nxi3ty = town (instant contradiction)
--: Mastin or Vezok = scum
--: Vezok or Channel = scum
This is a highly contradicting scenario.
Possible team: Titus, Cheetory, Vezok, Former
– unlikely because of contradictions.

Assume:
Untrod is scum.
--: Shadow, Cheetory, Action, Channel and 4nxi3ty = town.
--: Gamma, Mastin or Cheetory = scum
--: Former, Mastin = town
--: Shadow, Action, 4nxi3ty, Former, Gamma = town
--: Vezok, Cheetory, Mastin = 2 of them scum
--: Vezok, Cheetory or Channel = scum
A bit contradicting because of the things above.
Possible team: Titus, Untrod, Vezok, Channel/Cheetory?

Possible contradiction: Cheetory, Channel
Error factor: Former
If Singer is town then Action and Shadow is town too.

________

Conclusions.

If Singer = scum
--: Mastin XOR Cheetory is scum
--: ActionDan is probably scum
--: Untrod is probably town

If Singer = town
--: Mastin is probably town
--: Untrod = scum
--: Vezok = scum
--: Cheetory may or may not be scum.

Summary.

Singersinger is scum.
If so, the third one is either Cheetory or Mastin but not both, the fourth one seems to be ActionDan.

If Singersinger happens to be town, Vezok and Untrod must be scum and unsure about the fourth name (but it's not Mastin).

Scumreads independently (from most likely)

SingerSinger
Cheetory
Mastin
ActionDan
Untrod
Vezok

Townreads independently (from most likely)

4nxi3ty
Shadoweh
Channel

The two biggest error factors are Formerfish and Gammagooey. They're "evading" the analysis in almost all cases.

So, Esp (and others), you can see the list of the possible scums over there. Whom should I examine? Whom can I rule out because of being proven town or whatever?

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 11:17 pm
by wgeurts
It's scary how much I agree with your reads.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 11:28 pm
by Aneninen
Esp, then our reads are doubled.
If needed, you can post that Wgeurts used simple words and logic whereas Aneninen a hardly understandable mathematical construction to reach the same result.

...unless some of our reads are impossible. Of course.

Posted: Sun May 24, 2015 11:32 pm
by wgeurts
Lynch Singer first though.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 2:14 am
by T-Bone
No, only one of the three of us can replace in, and only one of us should.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 2:16 am
by T-Bone
I pretty much agree with your reads too, let's start looking at those players individually. I'll take a good long look at UT, someone take Cheetory, and then someone take someone else. The only player on your scumlist that I've been calling town is Singer, so we'll need to talk about that.

And tell Esp to get in here!

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 2:26 am
by Aneninen
How can we tell Esp to get in here?

Why is Singersinger town?

This is the list. Whom do you think I should start with?

SingerSinger
Cheetory
Mastin
ActionDan
Untrod
Vezok

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 2:41 am
by wgeurts
I've already told esp to get in here.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:04 am
by wgeurts
Yeah really think it's Cheetory and SingeSinger. Those slots have worked together all game.
UT is town btw as well.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:33 am
by Espeonage
I can say fairly certainly that AD is town.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:33 am
by Espeonage
He just legit doesn't like me.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:35 am
by Espeonage
Mastin has been pinging me most of the game. Something seems off but I haven't been able to place it. He hasn't been in a solve the game mood which makes me wary.

I think Gamma is town.

I don't want to lynch Cheet yet. He's gonna be really useful as like a third flip for finding the fourth I feel.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:36 am
by Espeonage
btw It's kinda the dead of the night where I am. If you want to brains trust, this is the wrong timeslot for me to be productive.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 6:09 am
by wgeurts
Yeah this lynch order is the one I suggest:
SingerSinger>>>Cheetory>>>Mastin.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 6:31 am
by T-Bone
It might be beneficial if we swap you and wgurts since he is a more active poster, but at the same time I don't want to take this game away from you, and I don't want him posting off the cuff either.

We do need to brain trust your slot one way or another though.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 6:32 am
by T-Bone
Also I still feel Singer town 85 pages in. Maybe she changes? I dunno. We should talk about it.

We should also come up with a summary of our thoughts that Esp can post to reach out to our town reads.

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 7:40 am
by wgeurts
off the cuff?

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 7:41 am
by T-Bone
Well I mean, you tend to post ALOT when you play, and it'll make things in this game worse with how much is already there.
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