Mini 566: Justice League Mafia Game Over


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Post Post #600 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2008 7:50 am

Post by Singing Librarian »

Sierra, I thought it was pretty pointless trying to defend myself from the accusation that I'm a serial killer, as clearly nobody would believe me. And now, hurrah someone believes I'm not a serial killer, but believe I am mafia instead, and a mafia member at that who can be uniquely identified by a town power role. Sigh...

I am not the Joker. I am not any form of Rocket Red, Manhunter or otherwise. I am not the stupid serial killer and I wish I knew where that idea came from. I am L-Ron, the cute but annoying little robot. I want us to lynch a member of the mafia and there's only one safe way to do so.

Cap is clearly scum - I mean, seriously, a set-up where town has three investigative roles (Khelv, ooba, Thesp/HC), a limited jack of all trades (Mirth), a vigilante (you) *and* a doctor-type role (Cap)? I think not. [And your posited scenario, where town has *four* investigative roles, even if 2 of them are limited, is insane]. Particularly when he'd pretty much said he was a vanilla townie. Lying, lying scum.

One or other (or indeed both, but hopefully not) of Thesp or HC is scum as well. Probably HC. But I don't want to risk lynching one or the other know when we're at lynch or lose. Working out who's telling the truth and who's lying of those two is pretty much impossible. The only mafia member I'm confident of is Capricious.
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Post Post #601 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2008 8:21 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

If you are not the Joker, then wouldn't Occam's Razor say that Thesp is lying and somebody else is Rocket Red #7?
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Post Post #602 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2008 8:44 pm

Post by Singing Librarian »

I hardly think Occam's Razor applies here.
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Post Post #603 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 5:25 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Singing Librarian wrote:I hardly think Occam's Razor applies here.
It absolutely applies here. I'm going to outline how your reaction should be if you are not the Joker. For simplicities sake, I will not focus on my counterclaiming Thesp, although somebody else is free to do so.

Postulate: You are telling the truth and are not the Joker.

Thesp has stated that you are the Joker. This statement is false, as per our postulate.

So if Thesp is not telling the truth, how can this be explained?

1) Thesp is intentionally lying, or
2) Thesp is unintentionally lying.

If Thesp is intentionally lying, why would he do that? He could be scum, or he could have some other knowledge that you are scum and wants to use the Joker thing to get you lynched without revealing whatever else it is that he knows.

If Thesp is unintentionally lying, then either Thesp has misinterpreted his results or somebody else has interfered with his results. This could be done by a Mafia Framer, or a Bus Driver role of some sort.

A Framer makes innocent people appear guilty to investigations. I've never seen a Framer role that would make it's targets appear as specific people. This is not to say it couldn't happen, but it seems unlikely to me. We have had no evidence of a Bus Driver role in the game.

Granted, we have not seen what powers the Mafia have. However, there are clearly four possibilities here, ranked from simplest to most complex:

1) Thesp is lying scum.
2) Thesp misinterpreted his role or his results
3) There is a variation of a Mafia Framer in the game that allows targets to appear as a specific villains that another role is searching for.
4) Thesp has some unrevealed information that you are scum, and he is choosing not to reveal exactly what this information is in a Ly-lo situation.

I'm sure Thesp will agree that 2) did not happen. The way he's described his role, if he were telling the truth, it would be pretty ambiguous as to whether he received a result of "Joker" or "Not Joker".

So, between 1), 3), and 4), we have about the same evidence for either one*. I find it odd that your initial reaction is that 3) is true instead of 1) when, all other things being equal, 1) relies the least on making assumptions that can't be verified right now.

*Obviously I think there is more evidence for 1) because of my role, but I'll let the rest of you sort that out for yourselves.
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Post Post #604 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 5:26 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

EBWOP: I'll admit that the second part of my question in post 601 doesn't necessarily follow, so don't tear me apart on that.
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Post Post #605 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 6:34 am

Post by Mirth »

Occam's Razor would state that both you and Thesp are scum. His claim is obviously full of holes, but you make the same exact claim, that offers the same set of holes. You're just less ambitious than he is, since you say your targetting cleared Thesp as being "not RR#7"

Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. ) You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK. I repeat, I don't particularly care who died tonight, as long as it's either you, Thesp, or Cap. Hopefully Sierra will realize to vig another one of you in the night, and if we got really lucky SL and the last remaining one of you could take each other out.)
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Post Post #606 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 6:49 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK.
Wait, so SL is my partner now? I thought I was trying to bus my other partner Thesp in order to prevent my other partner Cap from being lynched.
Mirth wrote:Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. )
I'm not moving my vote, and Thesp has stated the same. If you're so sure that Thesp or myself are mafia, why not put your money where your mouth is and vote one of us? I highly recommend Thesp, since he's Mafia and has lied about SL being the Joker.
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Post Post #607 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:11 am

Post by Mirth »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK.
Wait, so SL is my partner now? I thought I was trying to bus my other partner Thesp in order to prevent my other partner Cap from being lynched.
You obviously did not read my comment thoroughly. "lynched as the SK" Your plan on clearing him completely failed though.
HC wrote:
Mirth wrote:Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. )
I'm not moving my vote, and Thesp has stated the same. If you're so sure that Thesp or myself are mafia, why not put your money where your mouth is and vote one of us? I highly recommend Thesp, since he's Mafia and has lied about SL being the Joker.
Because I also think Cap is mafia with the two of you (remember I think there are 4 scum), and I really don't think he's lying about the protection thing, so that would make him a prostitute and thus more valuable as a kill than either one of you. If he's dead, he can't prevent Sierra or SL from hitting one of you in the night and I could keep my fingers crossed for a cross-kill.
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Post Post #608 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:43 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Ah, hoping for the self-hammer, I see.

Today's lynch will be either Thesp or I, because nobody else can get four votes on them.
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Post Post #609 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 10:15 am

Post by Sierra »

Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
Sierra wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Haschel, how do you explain Thesp knowing to claim such a role?
I think he guessed an uncommon role and got burned when it actually was in the game.
I just reread day 1. I found this interesting post:
Thesp wrote:
ZONEACE wrote:wait when did i vote Thesp???
I like this attitude!

I am categorically against a mass role claim here - I'm not sure the potential benefits outweigh the risks. (I know when I mod games with character names, I particularly like to put in
roles who are trying to kill a particular character
.)

actr, you didn't tell us who your partners were. It wil make it harder to find the scum if you don't confess. :(
I bolded the interesting part. This gives me some more confidence in Thesp.
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Post Post #610 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 10:32 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Sierra wrote:Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
On the surface it would appear to support Thesp, but I think it's coincidence. If not for Thesp's claim, that post wouldn't have gotten any attention at all, and I don't believe it was intended as a breadcrumb. Thesp's an experienced enough mod that he probably meant exactly what he said there.

Gah. The hardest part of this game isn't catching the liars; it's proving they're lying to everybody else.

Question for you, Sierra. Do you see Batman, The Joker, and Oracle/Batgirl as being a fourth of the characters in a game that is supposed to draw upon the entire Justice League?
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Post Post #611 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 3:26 pm

Post by Mirth »

Haschel Cedricson wrote: Question for you, Sierra. Do you see Batman, The Joker, and Oracle/Batgirl as being a fourth of the characters in a game that is supposed to draw upon the entire Justice League?
Oh! Oh! Can I answer this one?
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Post Post #612 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:35 pm

Post by Singing Librarian »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:Today's lynch will be either Thesp or I, because nobody else can get four votes on them.
You know, you could very well be right.

Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson


as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.

With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
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Post Post #613 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:38 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Singing Librarian wrote:
Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson


as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.

With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
Why are you believing the claim that states you are the Joker, if you are claiming not to be the Joker?
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Post Post #614 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 12:14 am

Post by Thesp »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Culting people away would be so antithetical to the concept of the game as revealed


Can you elaborate on this? I don't understand what you mean.
In a game where heroes fight, to have someone "die" because they left seems so different. (Of course, I also recognize I'm trying to play "outguess the mod" at that point, which is dangerous territory at any rate, and something to be cautious of.)
Sierra wrote:There could be some other possible set-ups, and if I'm wrong about Thesp and Haschel there could be tons of other possible set-ups. However, I've convinced myself that Thesp (more than HC) is speaking the truth, so SL should definitely be the lynch for today. I don't think SL is a SK. If he was, he would have admitted it after Thesp claimed. Most likely, he is mafia.
My information specifically intones that the Joker is out to get
everybody
. That implies quite strongly that he is a Serial Killer.

Re: my early comments on nameclaiming, why do you think I was concerned about role names? Even a cursory glance at anything on who Oracle is implies to The Joker that I'm a likely threat to him.

And happy birthday, Haschel Cedricscum!
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Post Post #615 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 1:38 am

Post by Mirth »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Singing Librarian wrote:
Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson


as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.

With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
Why are you believing the claim that states you are the Joker, if you are claiming not to be the Joker?
Happy birthday, HC, flaw in your logic though. If SL *is* the joker (i don't believe this either) then he can't very well admit it, can he. If Thesp isn't lying about being Oracle (which I think he is), then SL can't lynch him. SL *needs* a mafia kill just as much as the town does. I think he's just hedging is bets voting you now because if he is the SK he's making sure to kill the one whose death gives the least information. So trying to get him to admit whether or not he's the joker is kind of pointless because unless he isn't scum (I think he is scum), he has no reason not to lie.
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Post Post #616 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 4:10 am

Post by Sierra »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Sierra wrote:Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
On the surface it would appear to support Thesp, but I think it's coincidence. If not for Thesp's claim, that post wouldn't have gotten any attention at all, and I don't believe it was intended as a breadcrumb. Thesp's an experienced enough mod that he probably meant exactly what he said there.
How do you explain Thesp claiming a role
exactly
like yours? Was it pure coincidence? Is that his actual ability, but he's still mafia? Did he find out what your ability was somehow and decide to claim it first? Or do you have some other explanation?
Haschel Cedricson wrote:Question for you, Sierra. Do you see Batman, The Joker, and Oracle/Batgirl as being a fourth of the characters in a game that is supposed to draw upon the entire Justice League?
It's a possibility.

If I would have to choose between Thesp and HC, I'd rather vote HC. (happy birthday btw :wink:) However, I fail to see why you're both so convinced that one of you must be scum, when I see much better suspects in Cap and Mirth.

Unvote SL
for now. Mirth might have a point in SL not claiming SK when he actually is one.
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Post Post #617 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 4:12 am

Post by Mirth »

Sierra, why are you ignoring th possibility that *both* HC and Thesp are scum and when one dies it pretty much clears the other?
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Post Post #618 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:42 am

Post by Singing Librarian »

Sierra, I agree that Cap is a better suspect than either HC or Thesp, but since the two of them seem absolutely intent on only voting for the other, then a consensus on Capricious seems impossible. Mirth is a potential third scum for me after Cap and HC (or Thesp if I'm mistaken about which is lying).
Mirth wrote:Sierra, why are you ignoring th possibility that *both* HC and Thesp are scum and when one dies it pretty much clears the other?
Huh? Me not understand at all.
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Post Post #619 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 8:14 am

Post by Mirth »

That theyre both fake claiming so that when one dies and comes up scum the other is left with a "confirmed" claim. (haschel picked claim order, didn't he?)
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Post Post #620 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:41 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Sierra wrote:How do you explain Thesp claiming a role
exactly
like yours? Was it pure coincidence? Is that his actual ability, but he's still mafia? Did he find out what your ability was somehow and decide to claim it first? Or do you have some other explanation?
I explain it the same way you would explain it if I had claimed vigilante who killed roffman before you did. The only difference is that an SKcop is a more uncommon role.

Thesp is lying. We can debate all we want about whether sending somebody on a mission is similar to cult reprogramming, but I think everybody but Thesp has agreed that it definitely is NOT something that the Joker would do. The Joker does not make sense. Thesp does not make sense. SL voting for me over Thesp does not makes sense. It might if SL was the Joker, but SL IS NOT THE JOKER. NOBODY IS THE JOKER.
It's a possibility.
Sure, it's a possibility. BUt I don't think it's a very likely one, especially when it's already been reveal that we have some relatively obscure characters in here, like the Phantom Stranger and General Glory.
However, I fail to see why you're both so convinced that one of you must be scum, when I see much better suspects in Cap and Mirth.
I say that because I KNOW Thesp is lying, and his defense has been to accuse me of lying.
Mirth wrote: If SL *is* the joker (i don't believe this either) then he can't very well admit it, can he. If Thesp isn't lying...
Translation: "Here's a theory I admit I don't believe, but it supports both of you being scum, so here you go."
And happy birthday, Haschel Cedricscum!
I accept the birthday wishes, but not the title of "Cedricscum".
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Post Post #621 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:57 am

Post by Thesp »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:Thesp is lying. We can debate all we want about whether sending somebody on a mission is similar to cult reprogramming, but I think everybody but Thesp has agreed that it definitely is NOT something that the Joker would do. The Joker does not make sense.
I must have missed where
anyone
else agreed with you on this. Can you refresh my memory?
Haschel Cedricson wrote:SL voting for me over Thesp does not makes sense. It might if SL was the Joker, but SL IS NOT THE JOKER.
It makes perfect sense for SL to do as Joker.
After all, if I die, it verifies my claim.
He can't afford for me to die until the endgame because it outs him for gosh-darn-absolute sure.
He's already slipped in suggesting I'm town without offering any reasonable explanation for my result - it should be painfully obvious at this point.
Haschel Cedricson wrote:
It's a possibility.
Sure, it's a possibility. BUt I don't think it's a very likely one, especially when it's already been reveal that we have some relatively obscure characters in here, like the Phantom Stranger and General Glory.
Playing "outguess the mod" is a terrible, terrible way to play mafia, yet you insist on falling back to it.

It's pretty clear what's going on here, I think.
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Post Post #622 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 12:02 pm

Post by Mr_Gnome_It_All »

Vote Count:

Capricious (1) - Mirth
Mirth (1) - Capricious
Haschel Cedricson (2) - Thesp, Singing Librarian
Thesp (1) - Haschel Cedricson

Not Voting: Sierra

With 6 alive, its 4 to lynch.
Who the hell is "General Failure", and why is he reading my hard drive?
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Post Post #623 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:31 pm

Post by Mirth »

Thesp wrote: Playing "outguess the mod" is a terrible, terrible way to play mafia, yet you insist on falling back to it.
This is what we're all doing here now though.
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Post Post #624 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:23 am

Post by Mirth »

~bump~

Capricious, what are you thinking right now?
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