Mini 566: Justice League Mafia Game Over
Forum rules
- Singing Librarian
- Singing Librarian
-
Singing Librarian
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 226
- Joined: January 13, 2008
- Location: England
- Contact:
Sierra, I thought it was pretty pointless trying to defend myself from the accusation that I'm a serial killer, as clearly nobody would believe me. And now, hurrah someone believes I'm not a serial killer, but believe I am mafia instead, and a mafia member at that who can be uniquely identified by a town power role. Sigh...
I am not the Joker. I am not any form of Rocket Red, Manhunter or otherwise. I am not the stupid serial killer and I wish I knew where that idea came from. I am L-Ron, the cute but annoying little robot. I want us to lynch a member of the mafia and there's only one safe way to do so.
Cap is clearly scum - I mean, seriously, a set-up where town has three investigative roles (Khelv, ooba, Thesp/HC), a limited jack of all trades (Mirth), a vigilante (you) *and* a doctor-type role (Cap)? I think not. [And your posited scenario, where town has *four* investigative roles, even if 2 of them are limited, is insane]. Particularly when he'd pretty much said he was a vanilla townie. Lying, lying scum.
One or other (or indeed both, but hopefully not) of Thesp or HC is scum as well. Probably HC. But I don't want to risk lynching one or the other know when we're at lynch or lose. Working out who's telling the truth and who's lying of those two is pretty much impossible. The only mafia member I'm confident of is Capricious.
I am not the Joker. I am not any form of Rocket Red, Manhunter or otherwise. I am not the stupid serial killer and I wish I knew where that idea came from. I am L-Ron, the cute but annoying little robot. I want us to lynch a member of the mafia and there's only one safe way to do so.
Cap is clearly scum - I mean, seriously, a set-up where town has three investigative roles (Khelv, ooba, Thesp/HC), a limited jack of all trades (Mirth), a vigilante (you) *and* a doctor-type role (Cap)? I think not. [And your posited scenario, where town has *four* investigative roles, even if 2 of them are limited, is insane]. Particularly when he'd pretty much said he was a vanilla townie. Lying, lying scum.
One or other (or indeed both, but hopefully not) of Thesp or HC is scum as well. Probably HC. But I don't want to risk lynching one or the other know when we're at lynch or lose. Working out who's telling the truth and who's lying of those two is pretty much impossible. The only mafia member I'm confident of is Capricious.
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
- Singing Librarian
- Singing Librarian
-
Singing Librarian
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 226
- Joined: January 13, 2008
- Location: England
- Contact:
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
It absolutely applies here. I'm going to outline how your reaction should be if you are not the Joker. For simplicities sake, I will not focus on my counterclaiming Thesp, although somebody else is free to do so.Singing Librarian wrote:I hardly think Occam's Razor applies here.
Postulate: You are telling the truth and are not the Joker.
Thesp has stated that you are the Joker. This statement is false, as per our postulate.
So if Thesp is not telling the truth, how can this be explained?
1) Thesp is intentionally lying, or
2) Thesp is unintentionally lying.
If Thesp is intentionally lying, why would he do that? He could be scum, or he could have some other knowledge that you are scum and wants to use the Joker thing to get you lynched without revealing whatever else it is that he knows.
If Thesp is unintentionally lying, then either Thesp has misinterpreted his results or somebody else has interfered with his results. This could be done by a Mafia Framer, or a Bus Driver role of some sort.
A Framer makes innocent people appear guilty to investigations. I've never seen a Framer role that would make it's targets appear as specific people. This is not to say it couldn't happen, but it seems unlikely to me. We have had no evidence of a Bus Driver role in the game.
Granted, we have not seen what powers the Mafia have. However, there are clearly four possibilities here, ranked from simplest to most complex:
1) Thesp is lying scum.
2) Thesp misinterpreted his role or his results
3) There is a variation of a Mafia Framer in the game that allows targets to appear as a specific villains that another role is searching for.
4) Thesp has some unrevealed information that you are scum, and he is choosing not to reveal exactly what this information is in a Ly-lo situation.
I'm sure Thesp will agree that 2) did not happen. The way he's described his role, if he were telling the truth, it would be pretty ambiguous as to whether he received a result of "Joker" or "Not Joker".
So, between 1), 3), and 4), we have about the same evidence for either one*. I find it odd that your initial reaction is that 3) is true instead of 1) when, all other things being equal, 1) relies the least on making assumptions that can't be verified right now.
*Obviously I think there is more evidence for 1) because of my role, but I'll let the rest of you sort that out for yourselves.
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
-
-
Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
-
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
Occam's Razor would state that both you and Thesp are scum. His claim is obviously full of holes, but you make the same exact claim, that offers the same set of holes. You're just less ambitious than he is, since you say your targetting cleared Thesp as being "not RR#7"
Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. ) You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK. I repeat, I don't particularly care who died tonight, as long as it's either you, Thesp, or Cap. Hopefully Sierra will realize to vig another one of you in the night, and if we got really lucky SL and the last remaining one of you could take each other out.)
Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. ) You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK. I repeat, I don't particularly care who died tonight, as long as it's either you, Thesp, or Cap. Hopefully Sierra will realize to vig another one of you in the night, and if we got really lucky SL and the last remaining one of you could take each other out.)
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
Wait, so SL is my partner now? I thought I was trying to bus my other partner Thesp in order to prevent my other partner Cap from being lynched.You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK.
I'm not moving my vote, and Thesp has stated the same. If you're so sure that Thesp or myself are mafia, why not put your money where your mouth is and vote one of us? I highly recommend Thesp, since he's Mafia and has lied about SL being the Joker.Mirth wrote:Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. )
-
-
Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
-
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
You obviously did not read my comment thoroughly. "lynched as the SK" Your plan on clearing him completely failed though.Haschel Cedricson wrote:Wait, so SL is my partner now? I thought I was trying to bus my other partner Thesp in order to prevent my other partner Cap from being lynched.You, however, were trying to keep your partner from getting lynched as the SK.
Because I also think Cap is mafia with the two of you (remember I think there are 4 scum), and I really don't think he's lying about the protection thing, so that would make him a prostitute and thus more valuable as a kill than either one of you. If he's dead, he can't prevent Sierra or SL from hitting one of you in the night and I could keep my fingers crossed for a cross-kill.HC wrote:I'm not moving my vote, and Thesp has stated the same. If you're so sure that Thesp or myself are mafia, why not put your money where your mouth is and vote one of us? I highly recommend Thesp, since he's Mafia and has lied about SL being the Joker.Mirth wrote:Thesp is trying to get the SK lynched (he probably got that through process of deduction, since Sierra isn't the SK, you and Cap aren't the SK because you're scum with Thesp, and that leaves me and SL, he had to accuse one of us and hope to be right. )
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
Sierra wrote:I just reread day 1. I found this interesting post:Haschel Cedricson wrote:I think he guessed an uncommon role and got burned when it actually was in the game.Haschel, how do you explain Thesp knowing to claim such a role?I bolded the interesting part. This gives me some more confidence in Thesp.Thesp wrote:I like this attitude!ZONEACE wrote:wait when did i vote Thesp???
I am categorically against a mass role claim here - I'm not sure the potential benefits outweigh the risks. (I know when I mod games with character names, I particularly like to put inroles who are trying to kill a particular character.)
actr, you didn't tell us who your partners were. It wil make it harder to find the scum if you don't confess.
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
On the surface it would appear to support Thesp, but I think it's coincidence. If not for Thesp's claim, that post wouldn't have gotten any attention at all, and I don't believe it was intended as a breadcrumb. Thesp's an experienced enough mod that he probably meant exactly what he said there.Sierra wrote:Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
Gah. The hardest part of this game isn't catching the liars; it's proving they're lying to everybody else.
Question for you, Sierra. Do you see Batman, The Joker, and Oracle/Batgirl as being a fourth of the characters in a game that is supposed to draw upon the entire Justice League?
- Singing Librarian
- Singing Librarian
-
Singing Librarian
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 226
- Joined: January 13, 2008
- Location: England
- Contact:
You know, you could very well be right.Haschel Cedricson wrote:Today's lynch will be either Thesp or I, because nobody else can get four votes on them.
Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson
as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.
With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
Why are you believing the claim that states you are the Joker, if you are claiming not to be the Joker?Singing Librarian wrote:Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson
as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.
With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
- Thesp
- Thesp
-
Thesp
- Supersaint
- Supersaint
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: November 4, 2004
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
In a game where heroes fight, to have someone "die" because they left seems so different. (Of course, I also recognize I'm trying to play "outguess the mod" at that point, which is dangerous territory at any rate, and something to be cautious of.)Haschel Cedricson wrote:Culting people away would be so antithetical to the concept of the game as revealed
Can you elaborate on this? I don't understand what you mean.
My information specifically intones that the Joker is out to getSierra wrote:There could be some other possible set-ups, and if I'm wrong about Thesp and Haschel there could be tons of other possible set-ups. However, I've convinced myself that Thesp (more than HC) is speaking the truth, so SL should definitely be the lynch for today. I don't think SL is a SK. If he was, he would have admitted it after Thesp claimed. Most likely, he is mafia.
everybody
. That implies quite strongly that he is a Serial Killer.Re: my early comments on nameclaiming, why do you think I was concerned about role names? Even a cursory glance at anything on who Oracle is implies to The Joker that I'm a likely threat to him.
And happy birthday, Haschel Cedricscum!
"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -
Ask me about my automatic votecounter, and how you can use it in
Check out my 15 minutes of fame on Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!
Reiner Knizia
Ask me about my automatic votecounter, and how you can use it in
your
game!Check out my 15 minutes of fame on Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!
-
-
Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
-
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
Happy birthday, HC, flaw in your logic though. If SL *is* the joker (i don't believe this either) then he can't very well admit it, can he. If Thesp isn't lying about being Oracle (which I think he is), then SL can't lynch him. SL *needs* a mafia kill just as much as the town does. I think he's just hedging is bets voting you now because if he is the SK he's making sure to kill the one whose death gives the least information. So trying to get him to admit whether or not he's the joker is kind of pointless because unless he isn't scum (I think he is scum), he has no reason not to lie.Haschel Cedricson wrote:Why are you believing the claim that states you are the Joker, if you are claiming not to be the Joker?Singing Librarian wrote:Unvote; Vote: Haschel Cedricson
as I believe Thesp's claim more than I believe his. I am still a bit more confident about Cap's scumminess than HC's, though. If it becomes clear that there are sufficient people who agree on this, then I will move my vote back.
With regard to post 610, I agree that it's unlikely that Thesp was breadcrumbing intentionally. I think it was probably unconscious, but it still adds some more weight to the idea that Thesp is town.
How do you explain Thesp claiming a roleHaschel Cedricson wrote:On the surface it would appear to support Thesp, but I think it's coincidence. If not for Thesp's claim, that post wouldn't have gotten any attention at all, and I don't believe it was intended as a breadcrumb. Thesp's an experienced enough mod that he probably meant exactly what he said there.Sierra wrote:Haschel, could you respond how you feel about this:
exactly
like yours? Was it pure coincidence? Is that his actual ability, but he's still mafia? Did he find out what your ability was somehow and decide to claim it first? Or do you have some other explanation? It's a possibility.Haschel Cedricson wrote:Question for you, Sierra. Do you see Batman, The Joker, and Oracle/Batgirl as being a fourth of the characters in a game that is supposed to draw upon the entire Justice League?
If I would have to choose between Thesp and HC, I'd rather vote HC. (happy birthday btw ) However, I fail to see why you're both so convinced that one of you must be scum, when I see much better suspects in Cap and Mirth.
Unvote SL
for now. Mirth might have a point in SL not claiming SK when he actually is one.- Singing Librarian
- Singing Librarian
-
Singing Librarian
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 226
- Joined: January 13, 2008
- Location: England
- Contact:
Sierra, I agree that Cap is a better suspect than either HC or Thesp, but since the two of them seem absolutely intent on only voting for the other, then a consensus on Capricious seems impossible. Mirth is a potential third scum for me after Cap and HC (or Thesp if I'm mistaken about which is lying).
Huh? Me not understand at all.Mirth wrote:Sierra, why are you ignoring th possibility that *both* HC and Thesp are scum and when one dies it pretty much clears the other?
- Haschel Cedricson
- Haschel Cedricson
-
Haschel Cedricson
- Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
- Posts: 2827
- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
- Contact:
I explain it the same way you would explain it if I had claimed vigilante who killed roffman before you did. The only difference is that an SKcop is a more uncommon role.Sierra wrote:How do you explain Thesp claiming a roleexactlylike yours? Was it pure coincidence? Is that his actual ability, but he's still mafia? Did he find out what your ability was somehow and decide to claim it first? Or do you have some other explanation?
Thesp is lying. We can debate all we want about whether sending somebody on a mission is similar to cult reprogramming, but I think everybody but Thesp has agreed that it definitely is NOT something that the Joker would do. The Joker does not make sense. Thesp does not make sense. SL voting for me over Thesp does not makes sense. It might if SL was the Joker, but SL IS NOT THE JOKER. NOBODY IS THE JOKER.
Sure, it's a possibility. BUt I don't think it's a very likely one, especially when it's already been reveal that we have some relatively obscure characters in here, like the Phantom Stranger and General Glory.It's a possibility.
I say that because I KNOW Thesp is lying, and his defense has been to accuse me of lying.However, I fail to see why you're both so convinced that one of you must be scum, when I see much better suspects in Cap and Mirth.
Translation: "Here's a theory I admit I don't believe, but it supports both of you being scum, so here you go."Mirth wrote: If SL *is* the joker (i don't believe this either) then he can't very well admit it, can he. If Thesp isn't lying...
I accept the birthday wishes, but not the title of "Cedricscum".And happy birthday, Haschel Cedricscum!
- Thesp
- Thesp
-
Thesp
- Supersaint
- Supersaint
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: November 4, 2004
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
I must have missed whereHaschel Cedricson wrote:Thesp is lying. We can debate all we want about whether sending somebody on a mission is similar to cult reprogramming, but I think everybody but Thesp has agreed that it definitely is NOT something that the Joker would do. The Joker does not make sense.
anyone
else agreed with you on this. Can you refresh my memory?Haschel Cedricson wrote:SL voting for me over Thesp does not makes sense. It might if SL was the Joker, but SL IS NOT THE JOKER.
It makes perfect sense for SL to do as Joker.
After all, if I die, it verifies my claim. He can't afford for me to die until the endgame because it outs him for gosh-darn-absolute sure.
He's already slipped in suggesting I'm town without offering any reasonable explanation for my result - it should be painfully obvious at this point.Playing "outguess the mod" is a terrible, terrible way to play mafia, yet you insist on falling back to it.Haschel Cedricson wrote:Sure, it's a possibility. BUt I don't think it's a very likely one, especially when it's already been reveal that we have some relatively obscure characters in here, like the Phantom Stranger and General Glory.It's a possibility.
It's pretty clear what's going on here, I think.
"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -
Ask me about my automatic votecounter, and how you can use it in
Check out my 15 minutes of fame on Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!
Reiner Knizia
Ask me about my automatic votecounter, and how you can use it in
your
game!Check out my 15 minutes of fame on Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!
- Mr_Gnome_It_All
- Mr_Gnome_It_All
-
Mr_Gnome_It_All
- Hell if I gnome
- Hell if I gnome
- Posts: 720
- Joined: December 3, 2003
- Location: In Your Garden
- Contact: