Like,
Draynth's behavior today makes complete sense if he's scum.
He needs two mislynches to win
- Spangled/Jam are basically unattainable
- I'm a very difficult lynch
His ideal endgame if he's scum is two of Spangled/Jam/Me, himself, his partner, and an easy push. He cannot have Ethos alive as Ethos will snap vote him, creating a difficult thunderdome to win in considering he's highly townread by Spangled. Spew from a Spangled nightkill would make this even harder.
As a result, he needs to lynch Ethos today and nightkill one of Spangled/Jam/Me.
This explains him entirely ignoring 501 in the context of mechanically based pushes; faustiv is the ideal mislynch tomorrow
How he goes about pushing Ethos is by trying to let other players make their own perspectives of it. Ethos is a difficult lynch, but he has some tools in the fake mason claim to push that. Additionally, it's entirely necessary to do in order for him to win for reasons I've already explored.
I've evaluated the perspective from the other side, but Ethos pushing on Draynth isn't nearly as necessary today if he's scum
Draynth showed no interest in snap voting Ethos, and Spangled basically locked Ethos as town
His play just makes his job more difficult if he is scum.
This along with the fake mason slip makes me think he can't be scum here.
In post 534, eth0s wrote:Self meta sucks but here's one thing I will say about myself that is true. I do not self vote as scum. If I have ever done it than that was before my return to the site a few months ago. I do, however self vote as town. Take this with a grain of salt. I shouldn't have done it here regardless. I was mad. I was actually in a horrible mood towards the end of Day 1 and that isn't much of an excuse for my bad play there but I am genuinely sorry for shitting the bed there. I've been trying to work on forcing myself not to play when I am in a bad mood, but it's a work in progress.
I want to believe this.
Anyway VOTE: Egix96
Considering that you've been tunnelling on that slot since last Monday, I highly doubt that. If you were town I would not have expected you to believe him at all.
Not to mention it makes a big change from this:
In post 525, faüstiv wrote:eth0s you better give me a good reason not to get you lynched today.
I would hardly say that self-meta is a 'good reason'.
i didn't want you to hear
that shake in my voice
my pain is my own
- 1937 State Park,
Teens of Denial
D1 VCs make me feel more confident in scum!Egix given rule of VCA and previously posted thoughts on Ethos' slot
Egix would be on two serious town wagons with not the greatest of reasons to be on either.
In post 534, eth0s wrote:Self meta sucks but here's one thing I will say about myself that is true. I do not self vote as scum. If I have ever done it than that was before my return to the site a few months ago. I do, however self vote as town. Take this with a grain of salt. I shouldn't have done it here regardless. I was mad. I was actually in a horrible mood towards the end of Day 1 and that isn't much of an excuse for my bad play there but I am genuinely sorry for shitting the bed there. I've been trying to work on forcing myself not to play when I am in a bad mood, but it's a work in progress.
I want to believe this.
Anyway VOTE: Egix96
Considering that you've been tunnelling on that slot since last Monday, I highly doubt that. If you were town I would not have expected you to believe him at all.
Not to mention it makes a big change from this:
In post 525, faüstiv wrote:eth0s you better give me a good reason not to get you lynched today.
I would hardly say that self-meta is a 'good reason'.
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:15 pm
by Draynth
Right, if anyobdy here were to genuinely think about the order of my posts from yesterday FROM MY POINT OF VIEW they'd understand why I think I'd be killed if scum!eth0s knew I spotted the mason slip.
Seriously, just think about it.
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:21 pm
by Draynth
I genuinely can't believe we're just accepting that that hammer happened yesterday.
I can't believe we're accepting that Egix still isn't providing any content whatsoever.
This is actually bonkers
also
@mod
Is there any chance we could get a day or two extension on account of the loading issues the past few days?
re. the 501 post
It's not something I brought up, I wasn't looking at the eth0s situation as a strictly mechanical issue, I wanted actual feedback on the mason slip
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:27 pm
by Draynth
Like, a reaonable part of your case against me Geyde is my interaction, or lack thereof with Egix.
You mentioned him exactly once day 1, where you lightly pushed him for more solving from his posts. That could very easily be you prodding him along as his scumpartner, no?
Then magically today you "want to focus on Egix and Draynth" and he's at the bottom of your scum pile right beside me?
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:47 pm
by Geyde
In post 605, Draynth wrote:Like, a reaonable part of your case against me Geyde is my interaction, or lack thereof with Egix.
You mentioned him exactly once day 1, where you lightly pushed him for more solving from his posts. That could very easily be you prodding him along as his scumpartner, no?
Then magically today you "want to focus on Egix and Draynth" and he's at the bottom of your scum pile right beside me?
The main reason I've been focusing on him more today is because that spot of my reads was purely nul.
His votes and the wagons they landed on were bad, which is why I feel worse about his slot.
I pulled the 'want to focus on Egix and Draynth' because I hadn't really looked into your slots on d1 and saw that your slots hadn't gone under much scrutiny by that point. It would be easy for scum to generate content on Ethos and Faustiv today, which is why I wanted a focus on players that I didn't think much of.
I was trying to see where a scumteam would be in thread at this point, considering I felt like my townreads were fairly stable and that faustiv was on their own in thread. I had a hunch and then I built a case off of it.
The fact I turned a focus on you and Egix into calling both of you same scumteam was purely coincidental after I read your ISOs.
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:52 pm
by Geyde
In post 604, Draynth wrote:I genuinely can't believe we're just accepting that that hammer happened yesterday.
I can't believe we're accepting that Egix still isn't providing any content whatsoever.
This is actually bonkers
also
@mod
Is there any chance we could get a day or two extension on account of the loading issues the past few days?
re. the 501 post
It's not something I brought up, I wasn't looking at the eth0s situation as a strictly mechanical issue, I wanted actual feedback on the mason slip
The hammer is weird and I didn't like it
But I looked at the macro and Ethos's plays don't make logical sense from scumpov. Fake mason is worse than faking any other PR as the PRs would instantly know it as fake. The only reason for him to fake mason is to draw NKs.
VOTE: Egix96
I'm willing to give you a shot to prove me wrong on some slots
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:10 pm
by Geyde
In post 603, Draynth wrote:Right, if anyobdy here were to genuinely think about the order of my posts from yesterday FROM MY POINT OF VIEW they'd understand why I think I'd be killed if scum!eth0s knew I spotted the mason slip.
Seriously, just think about it.
Ethos is arguing the same thing from the other side
The cases on both sides don't make feasible sense
I don't understand why you would be killed if you made known that you spotted the mason slip, considering flips
Do you have a particular reason to believe that, because I'm finding it extremely hard to get your viewpoint when it comes to Ethos. I don't see a macro where he's scum based on the arguments you've made. A lot of his weird stuff d1 could easily be explained by him being a replacement and as such having to play in double time
He was townread by multiple players by the end of day 1, so why does he fakeclaim mason as scum?
Why does him spotting that you knew his mason slip cause you to be the NK?
Why does he quickhammer as scum instead of as town there?
Why, at a macro level, is Ethos definitely scum?
Your current additions to thread aren't doing anything to change my mind
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:46 pm
by Spangled
Why do you reckon Jam is an unattainable lynch for scum!Draynth, Geyde?
And what’s your read on faüstiv at the moment?
Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:06 pm
by faüstiv
Ok so I think the teams are:
Egix/Dryanth
or
Geyde/eth0s
Feeling the former at the moment.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:15 am
by Egix96
In post 604, Draynth wrote:I genuinely can't believe we're just accepting that that hammer happened yesterday.
I can't believe we're accepting that Egix still isn't providing any content whatsoever.
This is actually bonkers
In post 605, Draynth wrote:Like, a reaonable part of your case against me Geyde is my interaction, or lack thereof with Egix.
You mentioned him exactly once day 1, where you lightly pushed him for more solving from his posts. That could very easily be you prodding him along as his scumpartner, no?
Then magically today you "want to focus on Egix and Draynth" and he's at the bottom of your scum pile right beside me?
If you had to say right now who was eth0s's scumbuddy, who would it be? You're throwing shade at both me and Geyde there.
I don't like splitting them up like this. Why do you think if one is scum, the other isn't? For example, if we lynch Egix and he flips scum, how does that make Dyranth automatically scum?
In post 605, Draynth wrote:Like, a reaonable part of your case against me Geyde is my interaction, or lack thereof with Egix.
You mentioned him exactly once day 1, where you lightly pushed him for more solving from his posts. That could very easily be you prodding him along as his scumpartner, no?
Then magically today you "want to focus on Egix and Draynth" and he's at the bottom of your scum pile right beside me?
The main reason I've been focusing on him more today is because that spot of my reads was purely nul.
His votes and the wagons they landed on were bad, which is why I feel worse about his slot.
I pulled the 'want to focus on Egix and Draynth' because I hadn't really looked into your slots on d1 and saw that your slots hadn't gone under much scrutiny by that point. It would be easy for scum to generate content on Ethos and Faustiv today, which is why I wanted a focus on players that I didn't think much of.
I was trying to see where a scumteam would be in thread at this point, considering I felt like my townreads were fairly stable and that faustiv was on their own in thread. I had a hunch and then I built a case off of it.
The fact I turned a focus on you and Egix into calling both of you same scumteam was purely coincidental after I read your ISOs.
Yeah I got the sense of what you both are saying here. I think that We shouldn't be trying to pair people up into scumteams but rather focusing on who has exhibited the scummiest behavior / actions that help us the least.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:04 am
by Jamelia
In post 600, Geyde wrote:Like,
Draynth's behavior today makes complete sense if he's scum.
He needs two mislynches to win
- Spangled/Jam are basically unattainable
- I'm a very difficult lynch
His ideal endgame if he's scum is two of Spangled/Jam/Me, himself, his partner, and an easy push.
He cannot have Ethos alive as Ethos will snap vote him, creating a difficult thunderdome to win in considering he's highly townread by Spangled.
Spew from a Spangled nightkill would make this even harder.
As a result, he needs to lynch Ethos today and nightkill one of Spangled/Jam/Me.
This explains him entirely ignoring 501 in the context of mechanically based pushes; faustiv is the ideal mislynch tomorrow
How he goes about pushing Ethos is by trying to let other players make their own perspectives of it. Ethos is a difficult lynch, but he has some tools in the fake mason claim to push that. Additionally, it's entirely necessary to do in order for him to win for reasons I've already explored.
I don't think this analysis is right at all. Maybe it's because I have a town read on Dyranth, but I just don't believe that scum!Dyranth would be pushing for an eth0s vote. In this scenario, if you're assuming that the scumteam is Egix/Dyranth (from the context of your posts, please correct me if I'm wrong), wouldn't scum!Dyranth try to get a faustiv lynch? In the scenario where faustiv is NOT scum, I think it would be easier to excuse eth0s' actions and just go for someone like Egix for inaction/passive takes, as previously mentioned on D1. Instead Dyranth directly goes after Eth0s even though we had a good enough reason to lynch Aidan/Eth0s D1 before they came and had some great analysis.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:34 am
by eth0s
Scum isn't worried about pushing town!faustiv today because they know he will be easy mislynch bait in lylo. They want to knock off a player that is going to make the game hell for them leading up to that. The reasoning there probably correlates to why veggie was shot last night.
Geyde kinda beat me to it, at least if i understood him correctly, in saying that it looks like Draynth is shading me with the hopes that a wagon will go up on me that Draynth doesn't actually have to start.
"why did eth0s fakeclaim mason"
*other people respond and make the case for him*
*he adds a bit to said case as to not blatantly sheep it, still agrees overall, and jumps on my wagon when the lynch looks more promising*
This is my perception of what's going down. Sorry to Geyde if I am misrepping him by saying that I think we are in agreement.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:36 am
by eth0s
also @jam I see what you're saying in looking for individual scumminess rather than teams but I think there's not a lot of harm in trying to pin a team right now. at the very least it could get some scummy people caught in the overlap and we can discuss why two people find someone scummy for different reasons/interactions.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:43 am
by Geyde
In post 609, Spangled wrote:Why do you reckon Jam is an unattainable lynch for scum!Draynth, Geyde?
And what’s your read on faüstiv at the moment?
Read my ISO for Faustiv. Leaning town
Jam is unattainable lynch for scum!draynth considering that Jam hasn't done anything to seriously make a push off of, alongside being at least townleaned by a majority of players.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:07 am
by Errantparabola
In post 604, Draynth wrote:also @mod
Is there any chance we could get a day or two extension on account of the loading issues the past few days?
Yes. I was much less attentive to this game because of that and I think it's unfair to expect more from you than myself. I'll say +36 hours : ]
don't think it'll always be this way
not comforted by anything I say
we were wrecks before we crashed into each other
- Sober to Death,
Twin Fantasy
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:08 am
by Draynth
Sorry for the lack of content guys, I'm in my final year of university so the workload is piling on quite a bit at the minute.
Reading now.
In post 600, Geyde wrote:Like,
Draynth's behavior today makes complete sense if he's scum.
He needs two mislynches to win
- Spangled/Jam are basically unattainable
- I'm a very difficult lynch
His ideal endgame if he's scum is two of Spangled/Jam/Me, himself, his partner, and an easy push.
He cannot have Ethos alive as Ethos will snap vote him, creating a difficult thunderdome to win in considering he's highly townread by Spangled.
Spew from a Spangled nightkill would make this even harder.
As a result, he needs to lynch Ethos today and nightkill one of Spangled/Jam/Me.
This explains him entirely ignoring 501 in the context of mechanically based pushes; faustiv is the ideal mislynch tomorrow
How he goes about pushing Ethos is by trying to let other players make their own perspectives of it. Ethos is a difficult lynch, but he has some tools in the fake mason claim to push that. Additionally, it's entirely necessary to do in order for him to win for reasons I've already explored.
I don't think this analysis is right at all. Maybe it's because I have a town read on Dyranth, but I just don't believe that scum!Dyranth would be pushing for an eth0s vote. In this scenario, if you're assuming that the scumteam is Egix/Dyranth (from the context of your posts, please correct me if I'm wrong), wouldn't scum!Dyranth try to get a faustiv lynch? In the scenario where faustiv is NOT scum, I think it would be easier to excuse eth0s' actions and just go for someone like Egix for inaction/passive takes, as previously mentioned on D1. Instead Dyranth directly goes after Eth0s even though we had a good enough reason to lynch Aidan/Eth0s D1 before they came and had some great analysis.
Think about it like this
Ethos always votes Draynth in LyLo
That means that Draynth will always have to deal with Ethos in order to win
NK Ethos locks Draynth/Egix out of the game because of spew (Spangled/Jam v, Draynth s)
Egix then has to betray his read on me in order to try to get me lynched since I would then be the only non-lock town
Excusing Ethos' actions and going for Faustiv instead makes LyLo even harder since Draynth then would need to go back on their progression in order to lynch Ethos.
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:32 am
by Draynth
In post 607, Geyde wrote:The hammer is weird and I didn't like it
But I looked at the macro and Ethos's plays don't make logical sense from scumpov. Fake mason is worse than faking any other PR as the PRs would instantly know it as fake. The only reason for him to fake mason is to draw NKs.
I wasn't talking about you in particular but thanks anyway, I think I overthought the situation considerably at end of day 1
In post 603, Draynth wrote:Right, if anyobdy here were to genuinely think about the order of my posts from yesterday FROM MY POINT OF VIEW they'd understand why I think I'd be killed if scum!eth0s knew I spotted the mason slip.
Seriously, just think about it.
Ethos is arguing the same thing from the other side
The cases on both sides don't make feasible sense
I don't understand why you would be killed if you made known that you spotted the mason slip, considering flips
Do you have a particular reason to believe that, because I'm finding it extremely hard to get your viewpoint when it comes to Ethos.
I have a very good reason for all of the above, but I would
really
rather not get into it too much more today.
If I live to see tomorrow I'll happily revisit my reasoning for this without prompting.
I understand that's frustrating to hear and kind of scummy but that's the way it is right now.
In post 608, Geyde wrote:
He was townread by multiple players by the end of day 1, so why does he fakeclaim mason as scum?
My reasoning behind thinking he was scum for it when I spotted it was that scum!eth0s felt he needed to gambit in some way to get away with the awful hammer.
In post 608, Geyde wrote:
Why does he quickhammer as scum instead of as town there?
This is the thing I'm conflicted on.
Why would town!eth0s hammer without giving NMSA time to claim right after self voting?
(Talking about PR's is bad but it's a part of my thought process here so I can only apologise. If you don't want to discuss this part any further that's understandable, this is just what I was thinking.)
If town!eth0s were a PR, I can emphatise with his seeming sense of panic that a wagon might jump back onto him and he wants to avoid this where possible. But, there's no world where a town PR slips a different PR here, right? So he's probably a vt. I find it nuts that a VT would be so concerned about a wagon
possibly
forming back on them given how relatively surefire that NMSA wagon was.
In post 608, Geyde wrote:Why, at a macro level, is Ethos definitely scum?
Absolutely no idea outside of conflicting thoughts described above
In post 608, Geyde wrote:
Your current additions to thread aren't doing anything to change my mind
I'm not actively trying to convince you that eth0s is scum. I never set out to do that.
In post 604, Draynth wrote:I genuinely can't believe we're just accepting that that hammer happened yesterday.
I can't believe we're accepting that Egix still isn't providing any content whatsoever.
This is actually bonkers
In post 605, Draynth wrote:Like, a reaonable part of your case against me Geyde is my interaction, or lack thereof with Egix.
You mentioned him exactly once day 1, where you lightly pushed him for more solving from his posts. That could very easily be you prodding him along as his scumpartner, no?
Then magically today you "want to focus on Egix and Draynth" and he's at the bottom of your scum pile right beside me?
If you had to say right now who was eth0s's scumbuddy, who would it be? You're throwing shade at both me and Geyde there.
...?
I don't even know if I think eth0s is scum.
I think you probably are.
If you get lynched and flip scum I think geyde is a possiblity, but I haven't looked into your interactions with anyone else and I'm probably OMGUS'ing geyde too
Anything new to add to the Egix/Draynth theory other than the interactions Geyde mentioned?
Why do you think Geyde/eth0s is a possible team?
In post 612, Jamelia wrote:
I don't like splitting them up like this. Why do you think if one is scum, the other isn't? For example, if we lynch Egix and he flips scum, how does that make Dyranth automatically scum?
This feels like a townie reaction.
I don't think scum!Jamelia would be trying to contest this as it gives a lot of possible mislynch options
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:33 am
by Draynth
also yeah about scum!draynth pushing faustiv here, I'd definitely have to try and bite the bullet and misylnch one of the more townread / directly opposing players today. As was mentioned, players like faustiv/egix are both easier to mislynch
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:35 am
by Draynth
Last spam post.
I really hope it's not an issue but there's due to be a hurricane (possibly) hitting Ireland tomorrow / Friday. I can't imagine it'll cause any issues but I may have limited access so apologies for that too. Hopefully all will be ok
Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:41 am
by Draynth
In post 621, Draynth wrote:
I have a very good reason for all of the above, but I would
really
rather not get into it too much more today.
If I live to see tomorrow I'll happily revisit my reasoning for this without prompting.
I understand that's frustrating to hear and kind of scummy but that's the way it is right now.
In retrospect I also recognise that this is something scum!Draynth would say today to try and push a mislynch today then be in LYLO.
If I have intent put on me / think there will be if we're getting close to the deadline today I'll discuss everything then.