Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Bingle]

I disagree that I ever attempted to leverage it into a townread. I was very upfront about the fact I would have made the same posts as scum, and in fact pointed out that Fark's attempt to townread me/shos based on setup spec was gross as hell.

[Hectic]

Call it gut, but I'm thinking sh0s is lot more likely to flip CL than Bingle. The "fake" townslips are a lot more useful to pull as a CL, and Bangle really hasn't felt like he's playing like a CL recently. If he's scum, it's likely with sh0s as his leader in the way he set that daychat case up and then revealed it was completely invalid - it's a strange strat that both distances from your buddy while actually not making them look scummy upon the revelation, and might even give them a psychological "boost" in towniness when you reveal the case was a ploy. Kanna trying to break our pseudo-mason pact is interesting, but paranoia is slightly town-indicative when scum!her doesn't really have any reason to cast suspicious on me at this late stage of the day - knowing I'm not really a viable mislynch. Now's not the time, but I'd like to hear what you've found different in my solving/tone on D2, Kanna.

[Hectic]

As far as I know, Jingle correctly setup-specs as both alignments.

[Bingle]

Out of curiosity, If shos is town, who is my theoretical partner?

[Hectic]

His "Holy shit, that's an amazing gambit" post was crazy town.

Why couldn't he just have been happy the case was BS as scum?

[Hectic]

Out of curiosity, If shos is town, who is my theoretical partner?

sh0s in independently scummy of you, if you're getting the impression I'm only voting him because I think it's exactly you+sh0s.

To humour your question though, if he's town and you're scum, Bla makes the most sense with you, I think. But sh0s town makes you a lot townier too.

[Hectic]

@all: why not shos?

@shos: what’s with the abundance of fake ass townslips?

@Bingle i did not understand your post

Shos has been scum in two recently completed games:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81377
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81331

One of which I modded. Both featured daychat, and he expressed no surprise over this in either. There is no similar towngame where he expresses the belief that daychat is new or unique.

Daychat became the standard for Newbies sometime in late 2014 iirc. While it was (and still should be) considered a powerful tool for scum, it was by no means uncommon. Shos's argument that he was unaware of daychat being regular rings hollow, especially in the light of the fact that in the time frame of 6 months prior to his expressed date of absence through today I can remember two or three games that didn't have day chat total (Coincidentally, all games I modded).

His lie is both provable and easily proven, and further I expect he knew that I would prove it, which begs the question of WHY he was lying in the first place. My instinct is that it points to him as CL because it came AFTER I discussed the CL not using a too wolfy to be a wolf strategy and in conjunction with: These posts come across as forced townslips.

Also, he's overly self conscious about how he's seen in posts like 320, he seems more interesting in discrediting reads than building his own like in 322, and he also lied in a pretty obvious manner in 328.

Plus, there's this weird silence when I try to get people to talk about him.

Though actually, Jongle exposing sh0s' fake townslips makes him+sh0s as CL kinda unlikely. That's not part of the invalidated case and probably gave everyone a worse impression of sh0s with how Bangle links to all of them in the second post.

[Hectic]

Disclaimer:

I will be off-meta in this game (I will, for example, be doing reads). Don't use information gathered in this game for reading my meta.

Why did you decide to make reads for this game?

[Farkran]

Out of curiosity, If shos is town, who is my theoretical partner?

I know you didn't ask me, but this is a gross theory to pull now. You know what would be a good reason to gambit on shos about something that nobody would really check? Distancing. Discussing this with shos in your PT would make sure his reaction is appropriate, and immediately gives shos a reason to 180° his read on you while he was scumreading you.

Bingle/shos as a team makes sense considering the skill level involved.

To answer your question though, if shos is town and Bingle is cult i think BS or OS are the most likely to be Bingle's partners.

Pedit: eh... paranoia kicked in now, but i think we just lynch both rather than asking the question

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

It was two months ago, my first game onsite after the hiatus. You can be SURE that scum-me would throw it back in his face with a big I TOLD YOU SO if this was the case. But I'm not surprised that you don't let facts disturb you

I think any!shos would have forgot about his own specific reaction after two months, otherwise you would have answered from memory, not from checking your posts in that game. And if you forgot your reaction, you probably wouldn't check because you assume there's no reason for bingle to lie. This is valid for any!shos and more generally for everyone, i don't see a shos who checks if bingle lied about that - it's an easily verifiable lie, so i would think most people would just assume it's true, and work from there. Which, for instance, is exactly what you did - proceed to defend yourself instead of checking. But again, even town!shos would have done that.

Town shos DID answer from memory here. Which is why I didn't fish it up. Scum show would have checked it meticulously to find a single post where it may even remotely look as if I may be surprised and shove it up his butt all the way through the colon until it's out the mouth, pick it up and shove it back again.

Ill go even further and say that shosscum would have pushed a policy Lynch based on Lynch all liars there

I mean, this move was brilliant. Fucking amazing.

That was like
Scummy Worthy

Oh wow. Cool.
That's actually impressive.

Bingle just became town

Oh wow. Cool.
That's actually impressive.

Bingle just became town

I just want to say I am still deeply impressed

It was two months ago, my first game onsite after the hiatus. You can be SURE that scum-me would throw it back in his face with a big I TOLD YOU SO if this was the case. But I'm not surprised that you don't let facts disturb you

It was two months ago, my first game onsite after the hiatus. You can be SURE that scum-me would throw it back in his face with a big I TOLD YOU SO if this was the case. But I'm not surprised that you don't let facts disturb you

I think any!shos would have forgot about his own specific reaction after two months, otherwise you would have answered from memory, not from checking your posts in that game. And if you forgot your reaction, you probably wouldn't check because you assume there's no reason for bingle to lie. This is valid for any!shos and more generally for everyone, i don't see a shos who checks if bingle lied about that - it's an easily verifiable lie, so i would think most people would just assume it's true, and work from there. Which, for instance, is exactly what you did - proceed to defend yourself instead of checking. But again, even town!shos would have done that.

Town shos DID answer from memory here. Which is why I didn't fish it up. Scum show would have checked it meticulously to find a single post where it may even remotely look as if I may be surprised and shove it up his butt all the way through the colon until it's out the mouth, pick it up and shove it back again.

Because it surprised me and it's cool as fuck. I wouldn't have done it in years of gameplay.

7 posts in 6 hours. I could see one or two of these as being faked, but all of them?

[Bingle]

Pedit: eh... paranoia kicked in now, but i think we just lynch both rather than asking the question

If you lynch me never lynch shos.

[Farkran]

Pedit: eh... paranoia kicked in now, but i think we just lynch both rather than asking the question

If you lynch me never lynch shos.

Please lead me to understand why on a case-by-case basis:

1) You flip town
2) You flip CL
3) You flip non-CL cult

[Kanna]

Holy shit I have stuff to say but I’m v busy rn; be here soon + please wait for me

[Farkran]

We have time, although it's 1.10 am here so i'll probably read tomorrow.

UNVOTE: i want to hear bingle first but i still want to lynch him rn

[Bingle]

I flip town, and everything I've just said becomes known to be trustworthy.
I flip non CL, and everything I've just said becomes known to be trustworthy because I'll flip as cultist, not rolecop.
If I flipped CL you would disregard that post anyway and probably lynch shos, which would still probably be a mislynch because I'm much better at setting up false associatives than that.
If I flipped Rolecop, sure, shos would probably be the best lynch, followed by you and BLA in that order.

I'm arguing from solely that, because if you lynch me, you will know I was town today.

A casual gamestate read is enough to see I'm not a CL though.

[Bingle]

Holy shit I have stuff to say but I’m v busy rn; be here soon + please wait for me

We have time, although it's 1.10 am here so i'll probably read tomorrow.

UNVOTE: i want to hear bingle first but i still want to lynch him rn

We actually don't have time. It's 34 hours until deadline, at which point currently I am the lynch. That's pretty much the point of my assumptions that I get lynched here. If we had more time I'd demand the time to pin down my reads more before EoD.

[Farkran]

I flip town, and everything I've just said becomes known to be trustworthy.
I flip non CL, and everything I've just said becomes known to be trustworthy because I'll flip as cultist, not rolecop.
If I flipped CL you would disregard that post anyway and probably lynch shos, which would still probably be a mislynch because I'm much better at setting up false associatives than that.
If I flipped Rolecop, sure, shos would probably be the best lynch, followed by you and BLA in that order.

I'm arguing from solely that, because if you lynch me, you will know I was town today.

Oh well this was way sooner than i would expect lol.

By the way, if you flip town it means your gambit was real, not that it was successful. Scum!shos has no reason to scumread town!jingle over anyone else

You say you would flip non-CL, non-Rolecop cultist, how is this possible without a counterclaim on korina and poyzin? Town PRs would be throwing if this was true

If you flip CL... makes a lot of sense that shos would suddenly townread you instead of bussing.

I mean this is not a lock-associative for you and shos, but i wouldn't see it as a lock-disalign either?

A casual gamestate read is enough to see I'm not a CL though.

Ngl i might be dense, being late irl might not help my cause, but i don't see why you would assume what you said and in particular i don't see why this would place you above kanna who is your highest scumread.

[Bingle]

You say you would flip non-CL, non-Rolecop cultist, how is this possible without a counterclaim on korina and poyzin? Town PRs would be throwing if this was true

If I am recruited and flip on a later day as a cultist, it would be clear from my flip that I was recruited and my arguments today came from town me, which is obviously the point of that line.

[Bingle]

By the way, if you flip town it means your gambit was real, not that it was successful. Scum!shos has no reason to scumread town!jingle over anyone else

Yeah... Post 609. I've explained why shos is my strongest non mechtown read. At length.

Ngl i might be dense, being late irl might not help my cause, but i don't see why you would assume what you said and in particular i don't see why this would place you above kanna who is your highest scumread.

Why do you townread Kanna? Have you ever explained it, or is it just tone? Cause I see a lot of handwaivy reasons for townreading Kanna and no real substance to any of them. Which is exactly what I'd expect from cult trying to keep CL above the water.

Compare to me. Everyone who townreads me is quick to give exact reasons why, and they're always thought out, even your shitty "He was setup speccing" read. Even with that, every time it even looks like I might get lynched, people crawl out from the woodwork for reasons like "Maybe I townbinned him too early" and "I just really want to lynch Bingle".

Kori is at least honest about it (and wants to lynch me because he knows my setup spec means he doesn't win as cult at this point), but it should be VERY clear that in a situation where I am probably the de facto deadline lynch because we simply don't have time to pivot, I'm spending all of my time trying to solve the game for after I die. I'm tearing down literally all of the towncred Kanna has but doesn't deserve, and pointing out the weird behavior surrounding that slot. I get that you're probably scum with Kanna though, so there is that.

[Farkran]

You say you would flip non-CL, non-Rolecop cultist, how is this possible without a counterclaim on korina and poyzin? Town PRs would be throwing if this was true

If I am recruited and flip on a later day as a cultist, it would be clear from my flip that I was recruited and my arguments today came from town me, which is obviously the point of that line.

Oh, i only assumed that question on a flip today, not on a later day. I don't care about later day theories because previous flips will greatly influence my reads then

[Bingle]

As a self defense post, for a change, why does CL me stick my neck out for all of shos, nl, blatant, Fark and Obv? If one of them is cult leader under pressure, that makes some sense at least, but if none of them is CL because I am, why would I as the single role who is most incentivized to not have controversial reads make as many waves as possible? Why do I go after Kanna, who is probably the most universally townread slot if I'm trying to duck attention?

Why do I retract my case on shos when no one is going to call me out on it if shos is town and I'm scum of any color, when it would be insanely easy to just let it go through and point to shos saying that the case was solid if someone questions me about it later?

The assumption that I'm scum comes from the assumption that I'm simultaneously terrible at scum and masterfully manipulating the thread, which is all sorts of cogdis. And sure, you could say that I did this all as WIFOM to bring up this very point, but why would I when it would simply be easier to not do all of this and reach the same result?

[Bingle]

Oh, i only assumed that question on a flip today, not on a later day. I don't care about later day theories because previous flips will greatly influence my reads then

I mean... the question itself is disingenuous because the only thing that matters is my answer to what you should take away from my flip as town. Asking me what you should think if I flip scum is at best a dumb question and at worst busy work designed to look like you're doing something and paint me as scummy.

[Hectic]

Compromise and vote for sh0s then, Bingle.

[Farkran]

By the way, if you flip town it means your gambit was real, not that it was successful. Scum!shos has no reason to scumread town!jingle over anyone else

Yeah... Post 609. I've explained why shos is my strongest non mechtown read. At length

Can't see anything in there that couldn't be coached or agreed upon in a PT though. The fact is that shos got an escape route from scumreading you from a gambit that -imo- could only be caught by shos himself whereas any other town would just assume it was true, which incidentally is one of the reasons why you are scumreading kanna, am i correct? Wrt her sheeping you, etc (can't quote from mobile). I am much more inclined to believe in a chainsaw defense (love learning new words) than you independently townreading shos and scumreading kanna. I mean, i made the exact same mistake regarding your gambit but you are only scumreading me now, because of a potential associative to kanna and maybe out of omgus, rather than scumreading me independently because i reacted the same way as kanna did.

Ngl i might be dense, being late irl might not help my cause, but i don't see why you would assume what you said and in particular i don't see why this would place you above kanna who is your highest scumread.

Why do you townread Kanna? Have you ever explained it, or is it just tone? Cause I see a lot of handwaivy reasons for townreading Kanna and no real substance to any of them. Which is exactly what I'd expect from cult trying to keep CL above the water.

Compare to me. Everyone who townreads me is quick to give exact reasons why, and they're always thought out, even your shitty "He was setup speccing" read. Even with that, every time it even looks like I might get lynched, people crawl out from the woodwork for reasons like "Maybe I townbinned him too early" and "I just really want to lynch Bingle".

Kori is at least honest about it (and wants to lynch me because he knows my setup spec means he doesn't win as cult at this point), but it should be VERY clear that in a situation where I am probably the de facto deadline lynch because we simply don't have time to pivot, I'm spending all of my time trying to solve the game for after I die. I'm tearing down literally all of the towncred Kanna has but doesn't deserve, and pointing out the weird behavior surrounding that slot. I get that you're probably scum with Kanna though, so there is that.

Yeah, kanna read is tone and content based. So is hectic. So were you earlier, and korina, poyzin, shos and BS. What else should it be? I had a different read on salamence because meta and now on poyzin and korina because claims, but that's it. I have no flips, no NKA and very little VCA to work with. I chose my highest townreads as kanna, hectic and OS (for now), removed korina and pozyin, then picked the highest CL equity in the remaining people.

[Farkran]

As a self defense post, for a change, why does CL me stick my neck out for all of shos, nl, blatant, Fark and Obv? If one of them is cult leader under pressure, that makes some sense at least, but if none of them is CL because I am, why would I as the single role who is most incentivized to not have controversial reads make as many waves as possible? Why do I go after Kanna, who is probably the most universally townread slot if I'm trying to duck attention?

Why do I retract my case on shos when no one is going to call me out on it if shos is town and I'm scum of any color, when it would be insanely easy to just let it go through and point to shos saying that the case was solid if someone questions me about it later?

The assumption that I'm scum comes from the assumption that I'm simultaneously terrible at scum and masterfully manipulating the thread, which is all sorts of cogdis. And sure, you could say that I did this all as WIFOM to bring up this very point, but why would I when it would simply be easier to not do all of this and reach the same result?

You go against kanna because that's the slot you would have the hardest time lynching and you cannot recruit there? I must admit though, that if you are CL you'd probably WANT to bus your partner right now, so ... meh, this is twisted. The problem isn't that you wouldn't vote town!shos, it's that you should want to vote cult!shos in this gamestate. And you singlehandedly had the best setup spec and logic so far, no way you wouldn't notice this.

You and shos are likely really disaligned, thinking more about it ...