Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Menalque]

I don’t see why it’s more likely to be true than a gambit?

It draws attention to peta, and to the connection between peta and dave, but confers no benefit. I can see doing it as town in an attempt to catch someone fakeclaiming, but I can't really see why peta would think it would be helpful to do as scum.

I think it confers a benefit if scum are going for the easiest win which is tomorrow?

[Menalque]

I'll just say it: dave being alive tomorrow looks suspicious, especially if he has a guilty and it's ELo. Yes scum can WIFOM but it gives us a lot more info if that's the case. I don't want to lim dave today.

Cool, let’s lim lilith then

[Menalque]

Talking of which, skitter being dead is another point — why does a scumteam with me on it kill skitter last night?

[Menalque]

I'll just say it: dave being alive tomorrow looks suspicious, especially if he has a guilty and it's ELo. Yes scum can WIFOM but it gives us a lot more info if that's the case. I don't want to lim dave today.

I mean if Dave is town you’re going to elim him tomorrow anyway

So why not elim him today instead? Because you lose either way if you lim both of us, only if I’m right then we don’t lim me tomorrow (I prob get NK’d) and y’all still have time to clear the PoE and win

[Menalque]

No, I’m aware of what we’re talking about, I was talking about the same thing

My point is, if doing a gambit (“changing the slot he claims he went for”) is something he thinks will make him look townie, he’ll do it as scum? Unless the argument is that scum is just less likely to think of that “gambit” which I think holds more muster but it’s like v weak

But equally, if it’s not peta it’s just lilith/BB/dave

[Menalque]

Talking of which, skitter being dead is another point — why does a scumteam with me on it kill skitter last night?

Because skitter is a dangerous player.

As I said I think everyone is capable of killing skitter here.

Right but— why do I kill her right after spending 3 days pocketing her? And when she’s primed and ready to go on mission “kill lilith” that I can let her lead and then kill her tomorrow night instead?

[Menalque]

I’m not saying “scum!me wouldn’t kill skitter” I’m saying “last night is a really weird and suboptimal night for me to kill her, and I have meta that proves that scum!me considers who townies are meant to go for and will actively leave people alive if I think they’re going to tunnel other people I want dead”

[Menalque]

But equally, if it’s not peta it’s just lilith/BB/dave

This team is impossible because none of them can be the redirector.

Why not?

[Menalque]

My point is, if doing a gambit (“changing the slot he claims he went for”) is something he thinks will make him look townie, he’ll do it as scum?

Sure, but I don't see why he would think it would make him look towny.

Because he knows I’m town and just saw me do a townie gambit with my cop fakeclaim, so he thinks the logic will extend to him

Honestly, the thing for peta being scum with Dave is weaker than I expected but I still think he’s scummy enough to be in the pool

[Menalque]

Who has played with you before that would likely be scared enough to kill you n1?

If it really was a no kill gambit after all I'll be upset.

Skitter, S_S, lilith, Best Bird are all people who I think know me and respect me enough to maybe want me dead N1

Skitter is dead and town

She said S_S was town

Both/either of the remaining 2 could be scum

[Menalque]

Oh, TGP would maybe N1 me too, possibly uncrowned would, but obviously I excluded them for obvious reasons

[Menalque]

Right but— why do I kill her right after spending 3 days pocketing her? And when she’s primed and ready to go on mission “kill lilith” that I can let her lead and then kill her tomorrow night instead?

I'd think you would attempt to pocket her as scum regardless of if/when you intended to kill her.

As for lilith if you are scum and lilith is town I would expect that it's only a matter of time before skitter figures that out.

In other words NKA is hard and unreliable.

No, i absolutely would, you’re right — the point is that after the pocket was SUCCESSFUL is a weird time to do it unless you think I’d be terribly afraid of her changing her mind the next day

And like, maybe? But I think given the extent of the tunnel and with some gentle prodding I think she’d flip lilith today for me

[Menalque]

Why not?

Lilith can't be the redirector because Dunn confirmed she got the JK slot
Dave can't be the redirector because peta confirmed he got the watcher slot
BB can't be the redirector because he's below TGP who failed to get it

Oh so I think it must be dave and peta then

[Menalque]

Because yeah, if lilith and BB /can’t/ be it, then it has to be that pets id faking the clear on dave

[Menalque]

Okay, so if we do flip me today, remember that you have literally got 2 confscum from it tomorrow

[Menalque]

And lowkey I think this push is indicative for lilith as the partner

[Menalque]

I think a push on me from the scumteam with a gambit that outs 2 of them (I’m thinking they just... didn’t think enough about what happens if I’m the one who dies today? Or if this is successful?) is more likely from a team with lilith on it bc I think that’s where we were defaulting to, and getting lilith first would conf!town me going on, and then the PoE was losing for them anyway?

[Menalque]

Idk gamestate feels suuuuuuuuper fucked up

[Menalque]

Lilith is the only explanation for the no-kill, and scum-you would know that that's possibly the case coming into today. That would make her harder if not impossible to eliminate and might cause skitter to flip on you if she realizes that lilith is town.

I'm not saying this is definitely what happened, it's just a possibility. This kind of thing is why reliable NKA is so tricky.

Eh, like maybe? And I’m not saying it’s perfect but I think on balance of probabilities it makes me more town, I’m not saying it’s absolutely clearing

Idk, if skitt is alive do we massclaim?

[Menalque]

His play around my cop fakeclaim read as really sincere to me and also I’m trusting skitter when said “^i think this is town” under one of his posts

[Menalque]

Like ultimately it’s only a game and if I’m wrong I at least get the consolation that I was right for a while in the beginning and let myself get talked out of it by people who are better than me *shrug*

But at this point it’s not really worth agonisingly paranoiaing over it

[Menalque]

Good :3

[Menalque]

I'm also fairly certain scum!mena would be pushing me here.

I mean, if Menalque is redirector, then he has to push on one of {me, you, peta}. Given how close he was with skitter and how much he respects her opinion, it makes sense for peta to be the one he'd go after there, and he'd try to pocket me and you.

Totally true tbh, this prob is the route I’d go down as scum

[Menalque]

I've never seen scum-Menalque get close to an execution. But I don't really think he would respond any other way besides this. Was there a particular post that you thought was genuine?

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

I would be doing my best to emulate what I’m doing now if I were scum — I wouldn’t give up. There’s a good meta example where I repped into a slot that was pretty obvscum and then went immediately into a 3p lylo and posted like 200+ times or something just in that phase despite being obvscum

But like, I feel there is a marked difference between scum!me in lylo and town!me — honestly, it’s one of the weakest parts of my scumgame — and I don’t think I could replicate this play in lylo if I were scum? But then again, maybe it’s only distinguishable to me bc I now when I’m scum obviously and therefore know that I prob look less scummy to everyone than I feel I do

[Menalque]

Actually, that’s a very good point, peta

VOTE: peta

[Menalque]

Ugh I have an unpleasant feeling about exactly what’s going to happen tho

[Menalque]

Like your last post reads very townie, and it’s true that if you’re town then it has to be S_S or infinity, which means I’m fighting an awful 1v1 tomorrow /if/ I even choose correctly in terms of who to vote between infinity/S_S

If you’re scum then that doesn’t happen, but if you’re town then actually we need to know today or you’re set to be miselimmed after I flip town almost for sure, and I’m setting up the person who’ll do it by falsely locktowning them

[Menalque]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81124

I misremembered how long the overall game was actually, so it’s only 116 posts but still

[Menalque]

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

It wouldn't matter if I were, I wouldn't fake that kind of respect for your scumgame if I didn't really believe it.

Though, the only time I've seen you as scum I couldn't catch you until you tried to make a play, and if you're scum here then this would be your play and it doesn't feel especially fake, though I can see why it logically might be.

You just strike me as very self-aware both tonally and trajectory-wise and that makes it very hard to confidently say "scum-Menalque wouldn't do X".

Well, that’s flattering, thank you.

Yeah, I can see how form your perspective as town how this fits into a schema of “mena is doing exactly what he’d do as scum” — which is true because I am doing that, but only because scum!me is quite good at simulating how town!me views the game and scum!me would know that town me wants to survive and to help town with final reads if dying. Whereas scum me is desperate not to die but knows that excessive survivalism will look bad, so the better odds of life actually lie in fskesolving until the last moment.

[Menalque]

There’s a good meta example where I repped into a slot that was pretty obvscum and then went immediately into a 3p lylo and posted like 200+ times or something just in that phase despite being obvscum

Link?

Although idk why you care that much, there’s not a lot of reason for scum!me to lie about this either way

Like if I’m referencing meta no-one knows about I don’t claim to be /better/ at wfforting in almost certainly lost games than I really am, how does that help me? I’d be better off saying “i don’t waste time on lost games” and linking a scumgame where I got frustrated and just trolled town or something

[Menalque]

I’ll laugh my ass off if after all this it is just NM and going through the PoE loses anyway

[Menalque]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

I’m still unaware of it, what are you talking about?

[Menalque]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

I’m still unaware of it, what are you talking about?

leaving town with a confirmed missing cop slot in a group of people. i guess technically it's not that bad because the odds of finding scum in us 4 are potentially worse, but the field is narrowed, puts people under scrutiny who might not have been looked at otherwise. narrows the elimination pool and takes away people who would've been relatively easy votes.

It seems fine for scum from where I’m sitting? If it narrows down to 4 and you think you have a decent chance of getting a misguillo and maybe just winning outright there, it seems good

And if you do think it’s too obvious to try and defend your buddy you can just hardbus and have good odds in 5p

[Menalque]

I don’t think lilith no killing on N1 is horrendously unlikely btw, although if she didn’t then she has to be town and that’s s quick given her play and especially her absence

I really think lilith is scum on play

[Menalque]

@menalque

what do you think is more likely:

- scum no-killed N1
- you were the NK

from a town-you perspective, that is the only two options.

I have no fuckin idea hoopla, sorry

They both seem unlikely but for different reasons — the only people with a big motavation to kill me N1 are all people I townread by this point

But no-killing always seems like a weird choice next to killing

[Menalque]

Hoopla why is Dave prob!town based on claim?

And why is lilith cleared? Just because of the NK thing? But if you’re claiming JK and you think you can use that to soft guilty someone the next day, that’s actually a pretty strong move if you plan the soft guilty in advance

And let’s remember that soft guilty is /still/ being used to attack me today and as a way to try and flip me (see: Dave, peta, lilith)

[Menalque]

So it’s actually quite a strong move if you can permanently damage someone you know often comes across as town at worst, or get them miselimmed at best

[Menalque]

I’m not sure he would actually — I’m notoriously bad at catching scum him — he might NK me for general reasons (if there’s just no doc at all, he figured that if there was one they’d be on lilith or skitter) and so i was less likely to have a doc on me but still a solid kill

But overall I don’t think he’d be that worried about me as a threat /to him in particular/ i think he’d only kill me as a general respect for my ability to be a pain in the ass for scum sometimes

[Menalque]

{me, hoopla, mena}

We need to find one more town.

i would gamble the game on the neighbouriser being town.

Does knowing I would actively prioritise getting neighbouriser if I was scum impact this take at all?

[Menalque]

We should really consider NM for a bit here as well tho

I think probably town for the reaction to the cop claim, but worth rechecking

False innos are the fastest way to lose a game

[Menalque]

VOTE: s_s ehh ok

Why?

+1

[Menalque]

Infinity and hoopla I really don’t think S_S is the one today, and i think you should probably also listen to skitter there

If peta is town then I guess I’d lean towards S_S over infinity fairly strongly at this point, I’d definitely consider it

But if peta is scum then that problem is just resolve, I’m willing to clear S_S off that too, and then we have another de facto conf!town player and a good shot at winning

[Menalque]

I’m not sure he would actually — I’m notoriously bad at catching scum him — he might NK me for general reasons (if there’s just no doc at all, he figured that if there was one they’d be on lilith or skitter) and so i was less likely to have a doc on me but still a solid kill

But overall I don’t think he’d be that worried about me as a threat /to him in particular/ i think he’d only kill me as a general respect for my ability to be a pain in the ass for scum sometimes

scum have informed, so if there's no doc, scum

knew

there was no doc N1.

Unless they knew there was no watcher? Remember they only get informed of one thing

[Menalque]

No I’d pick neighbouriser because I like PTs

This is the problem hoopla, you’re assuming all the decisions made will be to try and play the game to the maximum wincon % but a lot of us make at least some of the decisions for reasons totally unrelated to that, in this case role being part of that

I don’t play PyP to minmax, I play it because I like the people in the game and maybe I’ll get a cool role that I like

[Menalque]

*second top

I was her top town read

And nah I don’t think that’s persuasive — there isn’t really a clear reason for it to not be Dave/peta, and S_S isn’t made more scummy mechanically by what’s happened

[Menalque]

And your PoE attempt mechanically is clearing 2 people who really shouldn’t be cleared from it

We really do need to talk about NM and not forget him entirely

[Menalque]

VOTE: lilith

[Menalque]

Okay, I think (?) that’s G-1 on me and I’m going to sleep so if anyone else votes me remember that it’s probably a death sentence because Nm etc etc

[Menalque]

Oh, cool

[Menalque]

Thought it was lil

Carry on then I guess

[Menalque]

The only player coming close to trying in this game is me.

Eliminate the guilty already. Enough screwing around.

Spoiler: All of dave’s post today which should apparently stand him apart as the only one trying

If the person arguing against a massclaim is the soft guilty...

I'd say it's no longer "early game" so I'm no longer feeling constrained from delving into pick analysis.
This is from my POV knowing I'm town.

2, 4/(5 ruled out by lilith), 9/23/1M
2, 4, 5 (ruled out by lilith)
2, 4, 4
4, 5, 9/23/1M
4, 4, 5/9/23/1M
4, 4, 4
4, any 2 of 9/23/1M
5, any 2 of 9/23/1M
9, 23, 1M

Every valid combination other than {S_S, Infinity, Petapan} requires lilith, Menalque, or a 4.
By far the largest set of combinations requires at least one scum to be a 4.

In terms of roles we may have a tragic comedy here of every single town role being useless or close to it. And I'm down to zero people I can trust in terms of TRs.

And I'm down to zero people I can trust in terms of TRs.

seems to be a theme today

you had a solid TR on me yesterday/day before that, what happened to that?

I thought Dunn was hinting there was a different reason for the no-kill than you being JK'd.
Consider it a compliment that I think you're totally capable of towning it up as scum.
And I have a hard time understanding lilith's play if she's scum, without that other reason for the no-kill.

Not cop. I assumed the first town player would take it and the chances of 3 scum before me was too small to even consider. As a result, the chance we have scum holding that role pair with RB is now pretty high.

Have we heard from Best Bird?

Dunnstral would have been neighborized before N_M repped in, right? The better question to ask about the neighborizer shot is, who as scum would think they can convince Dunn they are town in a hood?

also Dave, also peta

Getting a new refrigerator delivered.

Dave could be a scum reaction

My non reaction from not being here could be what?

Town will lose now. I wanted to know if there was a doc or not first.
1-shot watcher.
Meet your next NK.

Lilith if you're town

do not JK me

. Our only hope is scum kill someone else AND I guess who it is and watch them.

If Lilith is town, I'm absolutely floored that both of the top 2 picks went for a scum (IMO) role. Take a role with unambiguous results over one that leaves more questions than answers. Always!

Also, Dave, why did you out exactly?

Because it looks like a massclaim is in progress and people who claim stall tend to get elim'd.
Any other stupid questions?

VOTE: Menalque
Keep mentioning me?

Let's just turbo elim the guilty and get it over with.

I'm honestly just fed up with this game. You or me, now!

@ALL -- PICK ONE OF US AND GET IT OVER WITH. QUIT FUCKING AROUND.

And now you've caught up to why I'm so upset about the table we gave ourselves.
The only ways lilith and Mena can both be town is if scum deliberately no-killed (unlikely) or they were so afraid of Mena replacing in that they tried to NK there instead of a PR (also unlikely).
Lilith can be scum pretty much only if scum no-killed AND they tried to frame Mena. Even more unlikely.
If we had just listened to the guilty we'd be in a much better place.

[Menalque]

I think the right move is lili today

VOTE: lili

[Menalque]

It is an outrageous accusation to make of you, N_M

[Menalque]

I glanced at the VCA earlier and it looks kinda fucky for D1 if the pool is correct, which is troubling

[Menalque]

@peta why haven’t you played very hard this game/how come you haven’t hit any scum?

[Menalque]

Subject: Death Curse Spectator/Dead PT NOW WITH 100% MORE NERO

starting to think this setup is brutal for scum, one townie gets a scumread on you you're in trouble, if you push a miscurse on someone and they omgus you you're toast

don't like hopkirk's stuff after he drops the post restriction. fidget's 1665 is blah, drawing connections with adorable to noraa that are just implausible. dislike a lot of her reads too. noraa is kind of obvtown from that readslist and later posts.

through 68:

town reads (strongest -> weakest):
pooky, MUSH, bell, LLD, theta alpine, noraa, adorable, taylor, Vaxkiller, toogeloo, Flea, fidget, Titus
null:
gloria cleary, lapsa
scum reads (strongest -> weakest):
shellyc, unowen, hopkirk, MURDERCAT, Zdenek

[Menalque]

Like I read your ISO for death curse and you seemed p capable there

Granted it’s a large etc etc but your reads improved from your initial as you slowly moves scum!shelly up to your top acurmead, and zdenek!slot never left your scumreads even if they did fade from your best set of reads

[Menalque]

You also just, seemed to provide reads a lot more and be more actively solving there than here? Which is odd, and given that we know you were genuinely solving in that thread, is also concerning

[Menalque]

2/5 is pretty good tho

And like you definitely don’t have any townreads to work off’ve, so that’s 2/5 day 1 with one in null which honestly is pretty solid pure read atrength

It’s also clear that you are able to authentically generate reads off your own back whereas here I think you like, haven’t done that nearly so much although I do need to check your iso one more time before I lock you in as part of the solve

[Menalque]

Dave is basically just openwolfing at this point and has clearly had no interest in solving the game for several RL days

[Menalque]

His tunnel on me for a weak soft guilty and the random ATE out of nowhere that has now been toned down again is all just madly ++++scum

[Menalque]

Tbh I don’t mind who we kill in lilith/Dave because either one spews me town and if we’re all 3 town then we lose anyway (because if one of them flips town today then I think I’m almost certainly voting the other one tomorrow)

[Menalque]

And then either we lose or we’re locked in to a 1v1

[Menalque]

The main thing giving me pause is that if it’s (Dave, lilith, peta) then they all got on DGB on D1 which seems unlikely

[Menalque]

I’d say lilith is the best flip because of skitt

Dave is the best if we go off my reads and how today has been played (although that said lilith being basically completely absent isn’t a good look either)

Peta is maybe the Maori correctly mechanically

BB could still be scum and his absence doesn’t look great either

[Menalque]

A real concern is that if lilith is lylo bait then the game is lost if we do me today

[Menalque]

I’d rather do lil as insurance today bc I think it’s going to be easier to explain how Dave is scum in a 1v1 than how lilith is scum

[Menalque]

Oh I mean more

Like I’m very confident Dave is scum

But he won’t be confscum unless we’re crossvoting in lylo

Ya feel?

[Menalque]

I feel like dave’s posting today almost speaks for itself, so egregiously bad and scummy is it

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque
Keep mentioning me?

Let's just turbo elim the guilty and get it over with.

I'm honestly just fed up with this game. You or me, now!

@ALL -- PICK ONE OF US AND GET IT OVER WITH. QUIT FUCKING AROUND.

This is just like, transparent posturing lmao

[Menalque]

I’m trying to say that either lili no killed or scum tried to kill me, actually

And 2 vs 1.24 is like... a .75 improvement on rand which is not bad at all? Esp if we expand your scum pool to the nulls and you were 3/7

[Menalque]

Idk peta, I’m still considering but I do think your play today strategically serves you much more as town

Dave and lili are both scummy, no? And either one flipping would confirm me as town (basically)

Yet you’re voting me, despite having had a pretty strong TR on me earlier in the game

So it’s like, your position has changed and also very much serves what I think a scum agenda would be here (miseliminate the town leader before they can get cred from flipping scum)

[Menalque]

Peta is maybe the Maori correctly mechanically

Uh, any of you going green comes back on me badly lmao?

And I acknowledged you’re prob the best mechanically today

[Menalque]

I would want to execute Menalque and sheep him to the end of the earth

This is like a super scummy thing to say and I am doubtful as to whether I should be trusting skitter on you to the extent that I am

[Menalque]

and again this doesn't answer the question of why you're trying to meta/BoP me off a fucking spectator thread and not an actual game

I mean, I didn’t go out looking for it? I was reading the death curse dead thread for fun and you happened to be in it, and I can’t help connecting the two things in my brain

[Menalque]

Ahhhhhh this game feels like a loss tbh

[Menalque]

We deserve it tho

[Menalque]

I agree that their dayplay has been pretty gross, but town is perfectly capable of playing like that. And they both have mechanical reasons that make them townier, and killing one of them today brings us no closer to solving the redirector group which given how screwed-up it is could be the key to solving this game.

Fwiw, it would bring us closer to solving the redirector group if Dave flips redirector?

[Menalque]

This is like a super scummy thing to say and I am doubtful as to whether I should be trusting skitter on you to the extent that I am

Objectively it isn't because I use that mode of thinking all the time.

That’s not at all persuasive because in this *particular* instance that line of thinking allows you to support killing town!me and to then use the place where I’m wrong (my townread on you and not having you in the PoE) to target one of the two townies who *are* in there for the win

[Menalque]

That's true. But I don't think that's likely.

Yeah, it’s disconcerting isn’t it?

[Menalque]

I agree it’s unlikely but like, something is super fucked up this game

I will laugh my ass off if it’s as simple as scum forgot to submit a kill in the official way or something

Although I feel like ducky would have poked them so this seems unlikely

[Menalque]

"Person X doing Action Y is scummy because Action Y benefits them if they are scum" is not compelling if Action Y also benefits them if they are town. It's like asking the other two people to crossvote in 3p lylo. Yeah you get to hammer if you're scum, but you also get to hammer if you're town.

Yeah but that doesn’t change the perception of it, which is why you shouldn’t do it. Yeah, technically, it could come from either — but it’s a worse idea to do it as scum because the two town will both look funny at it

[Menalque]

Idk, I just think it’s more likely that peta/Dave are doing a weird gambit than that infinity is scum at this point

Maybe I get egg all over my face, and honestly I do have heebies because it seems so high risk/low reward and maybe I should be pushing S_S/infinity here but like... just seems so fucky that Dave and peta are claiming in such a way that it tries to get them out of the shit mechanically, and they’re both pushing town, and I imagine they can see ways they win tomorrow (e.g. hoopla seems p amenable to S_S)

[Menalque]

So idk

If it’s a gambit to elim me and then play for the win tomorrow, fair play tbh

That seems weird, but so does A LOT of shit this game

And if my reads are wrong then probably the best player on site atm was just as wrong as I was, so I can live with that if it’s the standard for comparison this game

[Menalque]

Do you think the team is exactly dave/peta/lilith then?

Idk man, maybe?

Could be that lilith got a save on me and it’s someone else in her place tho

[Menalque]

Like, here’s the problem

Lilith is confirmed JK

TGP confirmed that cop/redirector is in the game

If peta is town and is trueclaiming, then 1s watcher has to be in (NM, me, infinity, S_S) seeing as 1s watcher has to be in (infinity, S_S, dave) at this point and one of you would have CC’d if it wasn’t either of you

[Menalque]

Sorry, I mixed that up

Redirector has to be in* not 1s watcher

[Menalque]

N_M who did JV neighbourise N1?

[Menalque]

Other mechanical things;

Lilith claims to have JK’d me N1

We know there was no kill on N1

Nobody is claiming doctor at this point, so there is probably not a doctor in the game or if they are they’re throwing and we can’t do anything about that

[Menalque]

Scum went for informed, so if the only missing role is doc/rb then they knew that all along

[Menalque]

Oh, and there’s a confirmed neighbouriser in the game (from dunn) that NM is claiming

[Menalque]

Was there anything in the PT? Also, did you talk to dunn at all in the other PT?

[Menalque]

Uncrowned’s biggest SR was TGP?

[Menalque]

And that didn’t change at all after TGP flipped town?

[Menalque]

Why did he think his death was inevitable?

[Menalque]

i think SS and BB have good equity in both mena!scum & mena!town worlds. perhaps you (infinity) also, but i think you make more sense if mena is scum.

[Menalque]

Ffs my phone crashed

Original message read

“Okay, let’s talk about this

Why do you think those two have good equity with me?”

[Menalque]

i'd gamble on N_M being town over a tonal town read like menalque, and to a lesser extent dave over infinity. i feel like i'm also willing to lose to universes where lilith is scum too.

Why on all of these but especially on Dave > infinity and on being okay with losing in a world where lilith is scum. Like, what has lilith done that says to you that she’s town?

[Menalque]

Also, I will be bringing it up in postgame if it turns out lilith is town and saved a kill on me to everyone who was basically like “lol who would kill you N1 mena, so unlikely hahaha, must be a doc who saved the same night, or you’re scum lol”

[Menalque]

I don’t think I have good scum equity with anyone in the game rn with the possible exception of hoopla, although I can kind of see how she’s getting there on BB/S_S being potential buddies to me

But I think I can explain why they’re not, and I think the fact that basically no-one makes sense as scum *with* me is very strong evidence for why I’m town

[Menalque]

I drew up the game on paper last night to try and visualise it better, and here’s the thing:

Scum has to be in (infinity, S_S, dave, peta, NM) because the cop/redirector must be in those slots somewhere

Problems: peta is claiming that he went for 1s watcher IF peta is town, that means that 1s watcher slot is in (Dave, S_S, infinity) and Dave is claiming it. Dave claiming it doesn’t make him town, but it does mean scum has to be in S_S/infinity, which is problematic because I’m TRing both of them/so was skitter, and the people who are making the case that it’s mechanically scum in (S_S/infinity) are themselves the slots that would otherwise be prime for elimination today

Also, NN could be the redirector, but is claiming neighbouriser. So he can only be the redirector if BB is the real neighbouriser, or if (peta, Dave, infinity, S_S is) but that seems highly unlikely. However, it is troubling that there is no actual confirmation that N_M is the neighbouriser and that lilith *happens* to have targeted him meaning it’s still unconfirmed today

[Menalque]

So the big question is: was skitter/am I wrong about S_S/infinity? And relatedly, how willing are peta/Dave to tie themselves together in a way that if one flips the other likely does to, if they’re both scum? And finally, are there worlds where only one of peta/Dave is town, and the tying them together is to falsely set up the other?

[Menalque]

I guess one thing is maybe S_S/infinity would be more amenable to my execution if they /were/ scum because it’s good cover for them to push one of (Dave, peta, lili) tomorrow for the win? And like, also I think while I’m definitely the target for the game losing misguillo tomorrow if i miss scum today, I would imagine I’m still probably more of a pain in the ass to get flipped tomorrow than one of those 3 (with mena!town confirmed) so I think I would lowkey expect them to support killing me more?

Concerns are that if they think I look like I’m going down anyway, they might be white knighting for cred

[Menalque]

For a team that has Dave and peta, what’s the route to a win? Kill me today, then leave infinity/S_S alive and claim a guilty there or just that there has to be scum there mechanically? I guess to me this play doesn’t seem worth the risk, because that play is harder to make with me dead I think, but maybe they just see it differently

[Menalque]

Also, NN could be the redirector, but is claiming neighbouriser. So he can only be the redirector if BB is the real neighbouriser,

There’s a neighborizer. I went for fruit vendor. Highly likely n_m is neighborizer.

Oh, I know there’s a neighbouriser, I’m just contemplating if it could be not!NM if there’s some sort of gambit happening here. E.g. peta is neighbouriser and NM is redirector and they reversed the claims for ??? reasons

[Menalque]

I will concede that I think NM is /very probably/ the neighbouriser, it’s just like... the sequence of events here that have led to no confirmation of that doesn’t help

Also isn’t helpful that dunn never said anything along the lines of “I think the neighbouriser is town for when they do out”

[Menalque]

What do you think about my dave/peta/infinity/S_S conundrum, Best Bird?

[Menalque]

The obvious concern here is that you are the neighbouriser, N_M is the cop/redirector slot but he removes himself for consideration by claiming a back-up neighbouriser to force a false pool that inevitably loses the game in (Dave/peta/S_S/infinity)

That requires a team of exactly you/N_M/lilith

The other team I’m mostly considering is Dave/peta/lilith

[Menalque]

And like - dave's posting today was just bad

Yes, I know, but then I’m questioning whether he would do posting that bad right after tying himself irrevocably to one of his buddies KNOWING that success in the line he’s pushing leads to him looking v bad

[Menalque]

When I flip town, I mean

[Menalque]

Hoopla, what does your theory around solving around me have to say about the fact that there are two scummy slots that basically clear me if either flip scum?

[Menalque]

That also requires both me and n_m to have consciously chosen the same number, being at the bottom of the draft, and getting those two roles.

Okay, good point, I think we can rule that one out

[Menalque]

i abjectly don't fucking care if i get flipped today, it's better than flipping someone who can't be redirector

Why tho? The redirector pool is only 4 people, it’s 5 people from the non-redirector Pool

Do you think there are 2 scum in the redirector pool? If you don’t, even with removing yosrswlf from the occasion, it’s a higher % hit

[Menalque]

Let’s guillotine lilith and win this one for the homies?

[Menalque]

My logic on lili being locktown is as follows:

There is confirmed to me that there is a JK in the slots above me (pine requested JK and didn’t get it)

Lilith is claimed JK

I don’t see why scum lili would claim a JK on me there but I think town!lili excited because she thought it was a guilty /totally would/ out herself there


***

I think skitter is scummy for not being dead and for pushing lili like this, which is what I think scum would do if there’s a doctor in the game who blocked the kill N1 and who scum are worried would cover lili last night

whatever happened to this reasoning, btw

did it suddenly go away because lilith is a convenient vote, or what

Did you miss the long and drawn out conversation skitter and I had on this yesterday

did it suddenly go away because I’m a convenient vote, or what

[Menalque]

The point was that lili claimed the JK on me at a point where I actually hadn’t started to town myself up yet, and so the claim /wasn’t/ town!lilith not wanting to out herself until it looked like I might no longer be guillotined

So the claim was unnecessary as either alignment, and therefore isn’t the solid town proof I thought it was

[Menalque]

@dave, N_M, lilith, peta

if menalque is scum, who are his partners?

One day at a time. If we miss it's getting too close to not mattering, so I'll take the one in the hand over the one in the bush.

What you mean is you don’t know and because you’re scum who wants me dead today you don’t feel like bothering to consider it

Dave is scum 100% here I think, he’s not approaching this with any interest in sorting, he’s just pushing me

It feels incredibly bad faithy, as do his attempts to assert he’s town while pursuing a lazy tunnel that he won’t explain beyond “the soft guilty is damning evidence”... only we all assessed that as evidence, and even without the doc/rb slot, it’s *still not that damning*

There’s a very good chance at this point the kill was on me, but a universe is being present very strongly by those with an interest in it that the kill must have been stopped from me stopping it. Yes, I’m aware that this would make lilith town, I’m trying to weigh that up against skitter’s read. All *I* know is that either lilith is scum and no killed, or if lilith is town then scum tried to kill me

[Menalque]

i'd prefer not to get yeeted obviously but if people are gonna suggest i'm scum for nebulous reasons then we can resolve that issue right now

i entirely think it's possible ther could be multiple scum in the group given how infinity went from trying to talk nice to me, be like "c'mon i want you to solve" to turning on me and deciding i'm most likely scum when i actually bothered to piece together the mechanics rather than just sheeping along and voting lilith

What is nebulous about the reasons I’m saying you’re very plausibly scum gambiting with Dave and going for the win?

What is your alternative explanation? Who is scum in S_S/infinity and why? I wanna hear this today if I’m going so I can try to give town as much help towards a correct solve tomorrow as possible

[Menalque]

in particular, Menalque, you were disagreeing with skitter while she was alive despite townreading her, but once she's flipped you now want to sheep her reads. Why is that?

Where did I disagree? I just wanted my flip first, I didn’t say lilith is not scum? Like I did for a bit but by the end of day (when my TR of skitter has shored up) I was agreeing with her that lil was scummy but that dunn was scummier

Also, the very fact skitter is dead points towards lil?

[Menalque]

because i don't fucking townread them lmfao

Yeah, again, why? What is not towny about me other than there being a soft guilty? Who has done more to try and move this game along, to engage people, and to solve than me?

[Menalque]

My heart says S_S is scum but my brain says that the last time I went for what I felt was true instead of listening to skitter we misguillotined the monkey

[Menalque]

Peta, do you have a solve to propose without me in it?

[Menalque]

And it’s not just a thing of “might be gambiting” — it’s a thing of “would this gambit be game winning here?” and the answer to me seems to be plausibly yes.

Like, fmpov (honestly I think something is fucked and one of the assumptions we’re making is wrong but I cannot work out what it is at this point) scum has to be in (you, Dave, S_S, infinity). You have tied yourself to Dave by vouching for him and saying he can’t be the scum here. That means it must be S_S or infinity, but both have done townie things. I mean, I don’t really think S_S has, but i think infinity has (although obligatory paranoia etc etc). And while S_S hasn’t, a better player than me thought he was town quite confidently which makes me reluctant to flip him.

You really can’t see why you gambiting looks plausible fmpov?

[Menalque]

because i don't fucking townread them lmfao

Yeah, again, why? What is not towny about me other than there being a soft guilty? Who has done more to try and move this game along, to engage people, and to solve than me?

tryharding doesn't make you town and the fact that we're in the situation we're in would make sense if the dominant voice in the room was scum

No, but the way I’m tryharding does. Also, purely the level of effort I’ve put in is, at a raw level, town indicative for me. I’m not gonna day clearing, because I’ve made lots of posts as scum before, but I don’t think I’m this driving as scum or this active, and it’s not so easy for me to do over and over again like I have whenever I’ve been under suspicion and have needed to explain why I’m not scum.

[Menalque]

Now, if S_S is scum, who is he scum with?

[Menalque]

Big problem is I can’t come up with a team that makes sense with my current reads unless scum is doing something really, really weird

[Menalque]

I know you’re not, but that inherently means the scum /must/ be in (S_S, infinity) if true

[Menalque]

Like, you are still tying yourself to him even if you’re not saying he’s towncleared

[Menalque]

Peta if Dave is scum do you think it townclears me y/n and why

[Menalque]

I know you’re not, but that inherently means the scum /must/ be in (S_S, infinity) if true

(S_S, infinity, me) for anyone who doesn’t have access to my role PM

[Menalque]

he's also trying to keep lilith suspicion open despite calling her locktown earlier in the game. how he came to that conclusion earlier in the game, but now can't keep it going looks to me like he needs this angle open now when the walls of PoE are closing in. it's in scum's interest to have as much of a spread of suspicion as possible when we're nearing endgame.

This is not accurate at all? I’d revised my opinion of lilith before today started and before I was under suspicion at all?

[Menalque]

when you couple that with his recent absurd "meta" attacks on peta, and then rescinding a cop gambit once it was revealed he could be CC'ed, it just seems like too many things adding up.

What was absurd about my pointing at that peta seemed more actively solvey in a spectator thread that I was reading for a game that is quite likely to be game of the year, and then using that to help read him here?

Why is my rescinding if the cop gambit bad? Am I not better off 1v1ing in that scenario if I’m scum and the letting my partners bus me tomorrow?

And besides this, you haven’t actually explained yet why I make sense with S_S or Best Bird. Which is kind of important, because if I have no one who I can be partners with, how can I be scum?

[Menalque]

Is it like hoopla, S_S, lilith?

[Menalque]

This is an insanely wolfy and opportunistic hop on, hoopla, and it’s exactly like what you did on D2

[Menalque]

i feel like menalque's play is starting to fray at the seams - or at least, it's looking like his scattergun stream-of-conscious style of posting is veering into deliberate obfuscation. he's continually focusing on low% possibilities, like trying keep open the possibility of N_M being the redirector and not a neighbouriser (as if N_M is ever capable of faking what is essentially a confirmable role).

he's also trying to keep lilith suspicion open despite calling her locktown earlier in the game. how he came to that conclusion earlier in the game, but now can't keep it going looks to me like he needs this angle open now when the walls of PoE are closing in. it's in scum's interest to have as much of a spread of suspicion as possible when we're nearing endgame.

when you couple that with his recent absurd "meta" attacks on peta, and then rescinding a cop gambit once it was revealed he could be CC'ed, it just seems like too many things adding up. and that's not even factoring in the possibility of a guilty on him. he could have been the NK N1, but a significant chunk of the time he's the killer too.

you've put up a good show, mena. but i think all the evidence is starting to eclipse your early game townposting.

VOTE: menalque

E-1

Like, none of this really feels like you think I’m scum?

But it feels like you felt that you needed to *realllly* justify your vote on me

[Menalque]

BB has been mysteriously absent from most of menalque's solve attempts

This is a lie

[Menalque]

Why are you lying hoopla?

[Menalque]

I’m pretty sure there is at least one but not 3 scum in (lil, Dave, Best Bird, peta, infinity)

I think there is still a decent chance of 1 scum in (hoopla, best bird, NM)

EBWOP

vote count 2.06

Menalque (6)

: lilith2013, Infinity 324, JacksonVirgo, Hoopla, Dunnstral, TheGoldenParadox

TheGoldenParadox (2)

: Uncrowned, PenguinPower

JacksonVirgo (1)

: petapan

Infinity 324 (1)

: Menalque

Not voting

: davesaz, Something_Smart, skitter30

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-13 13:00:00)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- skitter30 v/la fridays & saturdays
- JacksonVirgo v/la til 06/11/2020
- quack

There’s also prob 1 scum in (Best Bird, peta, Dave. S_S, skitt)

How does this add up?

If we cross reference the DGB voters with the people who stayed off me D2, who is in both piles

(Best bird, Dave, peta)

There’s also the fact that if there is scum in the 4s it’s (hoopla, NM, best bird) of which I would lean NM, but if it was best bird I think that would spew NM and hoopla town

dunn --> dave, Best Bird --> NM --> peta, hoopla --> infinity, lili --> S_S, skitter

Strong TR is skitt

Probably TRing S_S again, and I guess I will sheep skitt on infinity

Think hoopla is prob town too tbh

Think lili is prob town mechanically

Max 1 scum in (Best Bird, N_M) imo

Elim through (Dave, peta, Best Bird, N_M) bearing in mind the 1 scum max thing

I don't think bird and NM are ever scum together because I don't think JV is a meme-y enough player to take 4 with his scumbuddy

I strongly suspect davesaz would be in place of one of NM/JV if lilith is correct

okay, so

I think infinity and hoopla are both locktown by their reactions tbh

I'm pretty deeply unsettled by S_S disappearing like that, especially as there was a moment there when I saw him come online in online users at the bottom of the main page, but then disappeared almost immediately and didn't comment anything in the interim. this is a big question for me now of whether to trust skit's read or not

NM I think is very likely to be town from his reaction

Lilith's reaction was... very meh? not exactly what I'd expect to see from someone who just caught scum, but equally quite plausibly someone from someone who knows I'm lying

peta could have been a scum reaction

Dave could be a scum reaction

BB not here sadly, but could be scum regardless

so does anyone have a problem with just sequentially eliminating (Best Bird, Dave, lilith, peta)?

[Menalque]

This is a selection of posts dating back to yesterday where BB has been an active part of my solve

[Menalque]

i've made my decision. if you're town, i'm sorry, but the game just makes more sense if you're scum.

THIS IS SUPER FUCKING SCUMMY AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT IT TOMORROW

[Menalque]

Hoopla is voting me based on lies and when pushed is actively unable or unwilling to provide any reasons for her vote

[Menalque]

She’s also never explained why N_M is cleared beyond a fallacious argument (that I refuted and she didn’t pick me back up on) and she’s talked a good game about teams that make sense but is unable/unwilling to cover how I fit in with the only plausible scumbuddies she’s arguing I have

[Menalque]

i've made my decision. if you're town, i'm sorry, but the game just makes more sense if you're scum.

THIS IS SUPER FUCKING SCUMMY AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT IT TOMORROW

[Menalque]

Okay, so I think hoopla and Dave are basically outed scum at this point

They’re outed scum or throwing town, so I’m going to go with outed scum *shrug*

[Menalque]

alright, i was misremembering your exact positions. from memory i had you overly focusing on lilith/dave/peta solves.

so, i rescind that point and apologise for the misrep. but it also reinforces my point that you're literally keeping all options open.

Interesting how your position has swiftly and radically reversed from “town by play” to “obvscum that needs to be eliminated”

[Menalque]

Who are my partners, hoopla?

[Menalque]

...infinity are you scum?

[Menalque]

...S_S are

you

scum?

[Menalque]

Okay,

E x p l a i n

T h a t

[Menalque]

infinity has good partner equity with menalque (he jumped on my push on SS quite easily with no original thought), and when you view the game from a menalque-scum angle that is suspicious timing. SS and BB sitting back while this whole thing rages on makes for good partner equity too.

Or is this literally all you have to say by way of your beliefs on the matter?

[Menalque]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=32813

^this is the ISO for my last scumgame btw, where I did high effort

Tell me there’s anything like as much content in there as I’ve got in this thread

And also let’s note that, again, clearly effort isn’t /clearing/ for me, but it is indicative

And the fact is that I’ve made 100 posts more in 2 weeks less when comparing that (one of my highest WIM scumgames) to this (a pretty typical towngame)

[Menalque]

Interesting how your position has swiftly and radically reversed from “town by play” to “obvscum that needs to be eliminated”

the reality is at this point in the game there are good reasons for every player to be town, so "town by play" doesn't cut it when you have a larger amount of suspicious reasons counterbalancing it.

Prithee, tell me what are all the good reasons for everyone else to be town?

Why is N_M locktown? Why is Dave? You have never explained either of those beyond spurious mathematical arguments that I’ve refuted

[Menalque]

Well, I’ve refuted the one on N_M anyway

Idk that you’ve ever actually offered a reason on Dave

[Menalque]

{me, hoopla, mena}

We need to find one more town.

i would gamble the game on the neighbouriser being town.

Does knowing I would actively prioritise getting neighbouriser if I was scum impact this take at all?

No I’d pick neighbouriser because I like PTs

This is the problem hoopla, you’re assuming all the decisions made will be to try and play the game to the maximum wincon % but a lot of us make at least some of the decisions for reasons totally unrelated to that, in this case role being part of that

I don’t play PyP to minmax, I play it because I like the people in the game and maybe I’ll get a cool role that I like

Plus just the general problem of induction — just because people in previous games have not chosen neighbouriser as scum, it doesn’t hold that they’ll have done the same in this game

[Menalque]

I am LITERALLY trying to engage you about the flawed assumptions that you’re making in order to create that PoE and you’re dismissing it with the circular logic of “well, I used certain assumptions to make a PoE, you’re in the PoE so I won’t bother to explain my reasons or talk to you because you’re scum because you’re in the PoE, and so I won’t listen to any critiques you have of the way I formed this PoE”

[Menalque]

BIG BLARING FLASHING RED ALARM THAT HOOPLA IS SCUM, REMEMBER THIS TOMORROW

ALSO DAVE IS SCUM

[Menalque]

I’m literally Jesus this game

Sacrificing myself to give you 2 scum, town

[Menalque]

Served up for you on a platter

[Menalque]

I forgive you, those of you who have sinned against god and all that is holy within mafia by voting me on this sanctified day

[Menalque]

incidentally, that is the beauty of PoE. i don't have to get into arguments with scum about why they're scum - that is never a fruitful endeavour.

This is literally just engaging in bad faith

I use PoE a lot, so I know how it works. It never means that you get to just stop engaging with the people in PoE just bc they’re in there

It may mean you don’t change the execution, but you definitely listen and try to engage to get the most out of it if they’re one of the PoE slots that flips town

[Menalque]

And you deciding to freeze me out is ESPECIALLY scummy given that you were calling me town with the last 5 pages on play

If that’s a genuine thought process you had, you should be — even if set on executing me — looking to engage me to get the most out of me once I’m dead

But instead you’re actively seeking ways to not do that/to not have to justify yourself for voting and pushing town

[Menalque]

Btw, if town loses this game it’s for the classic reasons:

A bunch of town slots just didn’t play and the remainder ignored play to focus on poor mechanics

[Menalque]

By which I mean: I’m pretty obviously town. I’m almost willing to guarantee that dead thread is watching this like a slow motion train wreck and going “...b-but... how... are they voting mena here? What the fuck are they doing? Are they throwing?” which side, advantage of not having skin in the game or whatever

But something fucky is going on here with mechanics, that much should be clear. But instead of recognising that and trying to reconcile it to reads and the gamestate, most people here seem fine pretending the gamestate is *not* fucky and just proceeding as normal

[Menalque]

I am going to bed now because it’s 3am here and I have a fairly important meeting with immigration tomorrow but I still have fairly major issues with some stuff you’re saying that I will address tomorrow

[Menalque]

Please keep out-of-game conflicts out of the game.

well too bad ducky, cause I have things to say about the July 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes in Movies and Agdam respectively

[Menalque]

for the record, for me to be scum with infinity I have to have entered the game lolbussing him almost to the point of killing him (and I haven't done this, because I don't need to, but I'm p sure if anyone goes back to check his reaction to that it's not gonna be partnery interactions) only to then... redirect onto DGB and not get any cred for the lolbus push and in fact get ACTIVELY sussed bc of it

let's not forget, my wagon grew on D2 BEFORE lili outed the JK on my slot and it was all because I'd abandoned infinity!wagon for a DGB!guillo

[Menalque]

but him blindly sheeping skitter and pushing on lilith is really hard to wrap my head around.

why?

[Menalque]

do I need to find examples of skitter being accurate or examples of me putting a high weight on skitter's opinions when she's been townflipped? cause I'm p sure I can do both

[Menalque]

hey Nancy, quick Q, what shade of red was the role PM you just received?

[Menalque]

do I need to find examples of skitter being accurate or examples of me putting a high weight on skitter's opinions when she's been townflipped? cause I'm p sure I can do both

Yeah I noticed you voting for us but Skitter’s very wrong if she’s scumreading our slot and I would really like if you’d give us a chance to first get caught up in the game to prove you wrong.

~M

I mean I would prefer that we just execute you and go from there but I guess

[Menalque]

do I need to find examples of skitter being accurate or examples of me putting a high weight on skitter's opinions when she's been townflipped? cause I'm p sure I can do both

Yeah I noticed you voting for us but Skitter’s very wrong if she’s scumreading our slot and I would really like if you’d give us a chance to first get caught up in the game to prove you wrong.

~M

I mean I would prefer that we just execute you and go from there but I guess

Well I would prefer you don’t misexecute us.

Are you even going to give us a chance to show you why you’re wrong here?

you'll be encouraged to hear that I do not have a lot of ~*play*~ in the game rn

but literally nothing you do makes lili less scummy for the time that she was here in your slot, and nothing you do changes that skitter is generally very good at reading lili, and nothing changes the fact that skitter was saying very loudly right before she died that lili was scum

[Menalque]

It’s kind of pissing me off that I haven’t even read anything yet and Mena is already hellbent on killing us. Let us at least get caught up first ffs!

the alignment of your slot hasn't changed just bc you repped into it

[Menalque]

sure working with mena and hoopla is our best bet

For losing.

yet more stellar game-solving contributions from Dave lmao

[Menalque]

I'll see what you do

I have a heavy pre-disposition to viewing you as scum tho, and that whatever you're doing is playing to a scum wincon and I think have valid reasons to treat you that way

idk, I think you and pooky are both competent as scum, so I don't think you'll be able to project town sufficiently to get me to TR you but we'll see I suppose

[Menalque]

roughly:

initial wagons were lili and uncrowned. lili was still the dominant wagon when I repped in towards the end of D1 I think, but it might have already been changing towards DGB by that point. I entered hard pushing infinity and got some traction on that, then he started doing things and I (maybe foolishy) decided he'd be easier to read on later days than super-inactive DGB, so I switched there and that put it over the threshold of support it needed and she got flipped. worth noting that like 5 slots who voted her (incl mine) are all still alive today lol

then there was no kill on N1, skitt started D2 pushing me and that picked up traction quickly, and that traction was strengthened when lili claimed a JK on me and a lot of people started talking about it being a guilty because "lol who'd kill mena N1?" then I started being very town and the wagon dissipated, and we were working on a theory of there being a doc as well who'd made a save on someone else the same night that I was JK'd. uncrowned was very obvtown and wanted TGP, who didn't seem very town and so a bunch of us voted him. before he died, he said he'd gone for cop but he flipped VT. this will be important later.

that night uncrowned gets killed, TGP and uncrowned were both shouting for dunn to die when they did, and he'd also done very little so I pushed him hard and consistently throughout D3. skitter argues we should do you instead, but people aren't that interested. dunn gets flipped, comes out VT, and he confirms that your slot is JK because he asked for tracker and flipped as VT. skitter gets murderised during the night, brings us to today. I've been mostly pushing you, but we also have a fucky thing going on with claims where there's confirmed scum in (me, NM, infinity, Dave, peta, S_S) because one of them has to have the cop/redirector slot but nobody is claiming it. as we've done massclaim, the person who has it is claiming scum.

of that pool, NM is claiming neighbouriser (confirmed to be in the game bc dunn said he'd been neighboured on N2) which I think is not clearing but which hoopla thinks is bc scum have never chosen neighbouriser as a role before. then Dave is claiming 1s watcher, and peta is claiming VT who went for the 1s watcher but got VT, so he's saying that the redirector has to be in (me, S_S, infinity). this is troublesome because Dave has an incredibly bad iso (especially today where he's done almost nothing but keeps insisting I'm scum) and peta doesn't/sort of feels town but is now very much tied to Dave (although is saying that he doesn't think the 1s watcher is clearing for Dave, just that he wants to go for the redirector instead bc... ??). infinity seemed a lot like scum to me on D1, but now seems towny, and I did a gambit where I fake claimed cop and thought his and hoopla's reactions were good. S_S is scummy but skitter had him as strong town which is making me not want to flip him.

basically, hoopla, me, infinity, peta have all been playing the game quite hard

S_S and Dave have each done a bit

Best Bird (the penguin) and N_M (predictably) and your slot have all done basically nothing but can't be all the scum unless there's something weird happening where NM is the redirector fake claiming neighbouriser, and Best Bird is the real neighbouriser, and your "block" on NM last night was to disguise this fact

[Menalque]

duckling, if someone reps into a game after the first day/night cycle, and has a power role, would you send them the night actions taken by the previous owner of the slot by default, or would they need to request those from you?

[Menalque]

i do not think you came close to killing him at any point,

I think this is only kind of true?

vote count 1.31

DrippingGoofball (4)

: lilith2013, davesaz, Infinity 324, skitter30

Infinity 324 (3)

: Menalque, TheGoldenParadox, PenguinPower

Dunnstral (2)

: petapan, Uncrowned

davesaz (1)

: Hoopla

Hoopla (1)

: Dunnstral

petapan (1)

: JacksonVirgo

lilith2013 (1)

: DrippingGoofball

Not voting

: Something_Smart

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-03 02:30:00)

With 14 alive it takes 8 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- prodding Dunnstral.
- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays.
- quack

the VC is admittedly not as high as I thought it was (I thought they'd actually tied) but you'd expressed at this point that you would compromise onto infinity and frankly as deadline crunch starts coming down generally the top wagon is the one who ends up going. so if I had brought you on board, then I think there's actually a p good chance infinity does die because no-one was /really/ pushing DGB that hard she was just broadly scumread, and I think often that ends up losing out to one person who loudly and persuasively pursues the guillotine of a particular slot

I also realise that my argument here is "I seriously pushed infinity but then did ultimately also save him" and that doesn't necessarily do a lot to discredit us being partners. idk, I think it's less (?) likely that I decide to enter any given game and hardbus without being pretty sure that they're strong enough to survive it and for us to both look good from it, and while I now think infinity is that I wouldn't have known that at the beginning of this game

[Menalque]

I am not answering that.

what about if I ask again but I say pretty please?

[Menalque]

I thought of a thing that I can't do which is making me sad

[Menalque]

Hi pooky

[Menalque]

I'll see what you do

I have a heavy pre-disposition to viewing you as scum tho, and that whatever you're doing is playing to a scum wincon and I think have valid reasons to treat you that way

idk, I think you and pooky are both competent as scum, so I don't think you'll be able to project town sufficiently to get me to TR you but we'll see I suppose

MENA MENA MENA MENA

Hi peta!!! <3

oh wow, guess I don’t get exclamation marks or a heart then :sadmena:

[Menalque]

Those are just such weird choices

Such weeeeeeeeirs choices

They are so so hard to actually believe as real choices that lilith would believe are the best choices

[Menalque]

Mena can you pls give me a 5 min cliffnotes on the game thx :3

So uh

Comms are going well in the hydra pt then? :p

[Menalque]

peta
S_S
infinity

[Menalque]

@hoopla, that's my preference

[Menalque]

I've been bouncing back and forth on S_S/peta somewhat tho, just because I'm still not sure if peta/Dave would do the gambit they'd have to be doing

idk, I just can't get to a team that makes sense to me here

[Menalque]

I don't have that awful sinking feeling in my gut that I got when Menalque was scum before.

But, he's not trying to execute me this time.

it's a totally different scenario anyway -- even if I were scum here, in that game there was no ~vague mechanical evidence~ suggesting I was scum for people to hide behind, and so I was really under no threat even with your town flip and you loudly calling me scum as I pushed you

even on the final day I wasn't really ever at that much threat of being flipped myself, and it was mostly trying to make sure we won then and there because I had *risk* associative with dogwatch and alimdia

[Menalque]

Can we requote this and add into it pls?

it'll be easier than trying to recompile all the individual posts

• hoopla:
  S_S
  peta
  mena/infinity
  
• infinity:
  peta
  S_S
  mena
  
• Best Bird:
  infinity
  S_S
  peta/mena
  
• peta:
  mena
  infinity
  S_S
  
• dave
  mena
  S_S/infinity/peta?
  
• S_S
  mena
  infinity
  peta

[Menalque]

Can we requote this and add into it pls?

it'll be easier than trying to recompile all the individual posts

• hoopla:
  S_S
  peta
  mena/infinity
  
• infinity:
  peta
  S_S
  mena
  
• Best Bird:
  infinity
  S_S
  peta/mena
  
• peta:
  mena
  infinity
  S_S
  
• dave
  mena
  S_S/infinity/peta?
  
• S_S
  mena
  infinity
  peta
  
• mena:
  peta
  S_S/infinity

forgot to add mine the first time lmao

[Menalque]

so currently:

first preference:
mena: 3
peta: 2
infinity: 1
S_S: 1

second preference(s) included for infinity and S_S 1st preference voters:
mena: 3
peta: 3
S_S: 1

third preference included for the S_S voter:
mena: 3
peta: 3
peta/mena: 1

so unless S&M and N_M both want the same person it looks like Best Bird is tie breaking between me and peta

[Menalque]

VOTE: peta

I have deep misgivings because if S&M are town then actually I think it does strongly implicate infinity, but at this point in the game there's no actual way of knowing that without ending the game if wrong (i.e. I assume if I'd got my S&M elim today, I would definitely be elimmed in lylo and we'd lose)

soooooo

I think probably if I go down today then Dave is the best flip tomorrow? and then probably you're gonna have to take a gamble but I'd say peta + BB seems like it could well make up the set, but honestly who knows. I'd prob do BB next after Dave because that would spew N_M town, I think

then in lylo it's prob between peta and S&M

if we do peta and he's scum today, I still think Dave is the best flip tomorrow, and then maybe S&M the day after that because we'll still have a misguillo in hand -- if S&M flips town, then I think I'm most likely wrong rn and have been pocketed by infinity somewhere along the line (although it could still be S_S lmao)

[Menalque]

Menalque Infinity peta I guess, but I don't have to feel good about it.

I feel like S_S using mechanics to justify voting me when the mechanics are weak evidence for me being scum is fairly +scum for him, ftr

because I feel like S_S, despite his earlier protestations to the contrary, knows my towngame well enough to know by this point that this is it, despite his respect for my scumgame

[Menalque]

like if there was hard mech evidence or I'd towntold significantly less I think he'd be fine

but in light of

both

those things, I think his equity goes up a lot

however, if peta is scum then it's almost certainly Dave, I was just getting paranoid, and skitter was right

I guess there are possibilities of a Dave/S_S/peta team tho, now I think of it, so maybe if we go peta->Dave and they're both red we shouldn't dismiss S_S out of hand

[Menalque]

bc if you're scum Dave is conf!scum I think

[Menalque]

I mean it's really gonna vindicate me when you red

[Menalque]

like, this has already been explained to you peta

there are 6 people who can be redirector (and we apparently NEED to elim within that pool for ?? reasons, this is something I'm going to come back to as a reason we lost the game in post -- although scum have done very well in controlling the narratives. e.g. on D2 around the idea that I couldn't have been targeted for the NK, and now that limiting the elim to the redirector pool is correct)

one of them is claiming neighbouriser
one of them is claiming watcher, which you're supporting

of the 4 left, it's you, me, and two sort of TRs (even if I'm not TRing S_S I put weight in skirts read there)

so no, I don't want to elim myself or either of the sort of TRs, and the only option I'm left with is you
as pure preference, I'd like to elim Dave or S&M (or maybe BB) but apparently that's not happening, so I'm left with either disregarding reads or killing you who COULD be scum on play and who COULD be puling a gambit here if you don't think you'll lose too much cred from (mine/S_S)'s green flip to not be able to get the other one tomorrow

[Menalque]

like the fact of the matter is that Dave still isn't gonna be trustworthy tomorrow, is transparently a wolf, and any claim he makes is going to be suspect about his NA

talking of which, also, how come you still have that NA Dave? why didn't you use it earlier than the point where you knew using it would result in it being a lylo claim?

so if I can flip you who confirms Dave as red, yes, that is my preference

[Menalque]

I mean it's really gonna vindicate me when you red

not happening

mmmmmm

[Menalque]

ehh actually I can't decide who I want more between S_S and peta

I absolve myself of the decision

it's still Dave who's scum, kill him tomorrow, then probably BB, then have a fun lylo choosing between S_S and peta whoever's left

anyone who tries to push the bullshit ("we have to kill in the redirector pool" tomorrow is

MEGA SUS

)

[Menalque]

I mean, it is unless you find it very compelling that there's more than 1 scum in the redirector pool that we've looking at which I think is unlikely