Newbie 2042 - Musicals

[Enchant]

Okay.


1. He was not so active in this game (before my reveal), i see this as not bad balance of proven/suspicious which townies and mafia should try allways. Not surprise, he avoid attention while looking decent. I can't clearly accuse him for that.
RLotus, i want ask you. How good are you at mafia? It's not trick question, i just want know.


2. Why you disapproved my plan with No Elumination? I can't push this too hard, because i'm risking with my head. But why you not just say "It's not bad idea, why not"? If you was real Cop, it could just benefit you very good.
Again, trade one miselim (OH NO WE CAN'T KILL TOWNIE AT 1 DAY, WHAT A WASTE) for two checks. I found this as common sense and would be happy reveal with two checks, when 7 people alive. Then we have one miselum for false Cop, so it's not be a big deal if i fail with counterclaim. Now i'm in danger.

[RLotus]

never played as mafia

an elim is mathematically better than no elim

[Enchant]

never played as mafia

an elim is mathematically better than no elim

Why? Explain.

[RLotus]

It makes sense, though chances to get Cop/Tracker in setup, looks pretty high. Higher than chance for Eluminate mafia in 1 day.

Of course, it looks like lottery. Or i can't see something obvious. My thinking is wrong?

If you elim day 1 you get 4 chances to hit mafia. If you skip day 1 and the mafia gets their night kill, you only get 3 chances to hit mafia

9(elim+nk) --> 7(elim+nk) --> 5(elim+nk) --> 3(elim) --> Game Over. That's 4 elims if you elim everyday.

9(nk) --> 8(elim+nk) --> 6(elim+nk) --> 4(elim+nk) --> Game Over. That's 3 elims if you skip a day.

[Enchant]

9(nk) --> 8(elim+nk) --> 6(elim+nk) --> 4(elim+nk) --> Game Over. That's 3 elims if you skip a day.

[/quote]

You forgot another thing. I also suggested skipping two days.

9(nk) --> 8(nk) --> 7(elim+nk) --> 5(elim+nk) --> 3(elim+nk) --> Game Over.

It solves any problem with even number of players and gives 2 checks on 3 day, while 7 people still alive. Of course it's useless to skip just one day, but two is viable and good choice. I will quote my message with this suggestion.

So while i though how to use investigation effective from beginning, you did nothing and just jumped with claim to save yourself. Great.

[Enchant]

We have one day left and I believe not elimming is a bad idea.

It's better to mislim than to not elim today. I'm not certain that's how the system normally functions on this mafia site as well but I think it is a good way to look at games of mafia.

Math say it's not so bad idea, just random one and specifical.

We have 5 setups with investigative (Tracker, Cop) powerroles. So, if we skip 2 days (skipping just one day is not good), it's will be 7 people game with 2 people checked (in most case), 1 being said investigative and another 1 is other PR (Unless C1). It's damn good chances. On other case, we have 4/9 chance to just waste two days for nothing, so this decision is like "All or nothing"

Of course mafia can just target said investigator and we again gain nothing, but chances is 1/7 and 1/6 in most cases, and they can do that anyway with better chances if we miseluminate (1/6).


Maybe i try this in other games.

While i realised it too late, i realised. I tried to walk this way. You did nothing.

[RLotus]

again you only get 3 kills instead of 4 and have to dodge the mafia killing your cop both nights, just not worth

[RLotus]

and it also assumes that the cop has both his checks alive after all of this

not to mention you forego voting logic

[Enchant]

again you only get 3 kills instead of 4 and have to dodge the mafia killing your cop both nights, just not worth

I needed dodge mafia kills two nights anyway. No elum helps survive (less people to pick from at night, no risk to reveal PR with votes), and gives some benefit, like "another" miselum when Cop decide to claim with two checks. So dealing with false claim would be not so big deal. Like right now.

You just blindly followed what other people say (No Elum is bad because math say's so) because it's actually not mattered for you.
I don't want to say like No Elum for first two days is godlike strategy, it's just choice what we can made and i saw this choice as better in this situation, because i know Cop exists in this game.

[Enchant]

and it also assumes that the cop has both his checks alive after all of this

not to mention you forego voting logic

You say like it's hard, when really i didn't had so many problems with thinking who probably will survive for this moment. Even more it easier to let two checks survive with No Elum, because again, mafia have less chance to pick up check target as more townies live.

[Facebones]

I have reasons to believe both of you and I'm slowly running out of time. I think it was Enchant who asked if doctors could heal themselves? And I think it was after NM said au revoir? That seems like a question that would come from inexperienced scum this late in the game not knowing who they should NK.

But Enchant sticking to their guns about the no elim for the first coupla days due to the higher chance of mis-elimming and accidentally outting a town PR seems pretty townie, especially if they are a cop.

Might need a couple more hours to contemplate everything.

[brassherald]

Votecount 4.03

Enchant (1):

RLotus

RLotus (1):

Enchant

Not voting (1):

Facebones

With 3 alive, it takes two votes to eliminate.
Day 4 will end in (expired on 2020-12-26 06:45:00)

[RLotus]

if you are having doubts about me talk to me, because all evidence really does lead to enchant

[Enchant]

Yes, i had plan with random 50/50 heal so mafia will need play quess game, because i was pretty sure paranoid Mini would heal self for sure without this plan. It's kinda ruined, because Doc nerfs (I played mostly with "Can heal self but only once" version).

You can see this at momentum, because after this question i tried trick him in NotKill.


And again, i would be happy with Mini alive, so i would not care about it as i miss kill just because i can. And that's not type of question which i wanted ask as maf, moreover publically.

[RLotus]

the doc getting a save leads us to the same position we are in, each trying to convince FB, this 50/50 mind game thing doesnt come from the mind of a towny

you wanted to see if it was viable to target FB over and over so that you can end up with Mini alive, thats why you asked.

[Enchant]

if you are having doubts about me talk to me, because all evidence really does lead to enchant

Of course, you did good job with Not_Mafia at placing blame.


Yes, i voted Not_Mafia, because allready though game is won for us. And he hammered self, but why he would do that if i was maf? It makes me extremally bad looking, like i fear your counterclaim and haste somehow can save me from this.

You say like counterclaim on next day is suspicious and that's main goal of this move, but in reality that's plain dumb decision, as real Cop reveal anyway and there's zero reason to not believe in his "I didn't have chance to claim because of haste!", unless town extremally bad. This move not give me anything and there's no reason to perform it, unless i want make look self bad.

[Enchant]

the doc getting a save leads us to the same position we are in, each trying to convince FB, this 50/50 mind game thing doesnt come from the mind of a towny

you wanted to see if it was viable to target FB over and over so that you can end up with Mini alive, thats why you asked.

Why the hell i want FB dead, it's obvious like i killed him to shut him up and to remain with Townie who believe me.

[Enchant]

If you still not sure, just think about me as mafia for a bit, realise if my actions favors me in that sense?

1. Mafia fear to make self suspicious and avoid questionbly actions. Also they read what they write, so slips are rare.
2. Avoid too much attention, but doesh't want to just keep silent at all. Some subvert. Townies do that too to avoid get targeted.
3. Mafia want make townies look bad, when it doesh't bite them back.

It can't be used 100% times, but it's main reason why failed townies looking more innocent for me. Mafia play is mostly ideal, they need to made it not ideal and good town play is realise, is bad actions really bad or they are made bad for purpose.

[RLotus]

Why the hell i want FB dead

Because Mini was tunneled on me? lol

You just made the argument that I am mafia since Mini died (even though you admit Mini must die mechanically), and now you say that you wouldnt want to kill FB either...

[Enchant]

In that case only Mini could die, yes.

But why she most die? You had pretty well two options, kill or no. And you do, because there's no benefit to keep alive for you.

[RLotus]

your logic just does not make sense

[Enchant]

It makes. Just not for you.

Mini could survive, if you choose so. But she tunneled you and that's reason why you kill.

[RLotus]

if mini were alive and nobody died, it would be painfully obvious that you targeted fb in order to preserve mini. You had to kill her, this kill doesnt even look good for you idk what you are even on about

[Enchant]

Now i can't understand your logic.

If no one died, it means kill skipped or you attacked Face which is useless.

[Facebones]

Had a read through. I believe Enchant was trying to solve in the early days, and RLotus was staying out of trouble, trying to keep his nose clean. There's a bit of WIFOM going on. Butyeah...