Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-15

Rafael's Dream, by Marcantonio Raimondi (1480-1534), may at first appear to be a restful and idyllic sleep, but the details in the foreground and background show this dream is the stuff of nightmares.

Lunar Martian

(2): Illwei, safebet222

Illwei

(2): unwnd, petapan

Mr Turtle

(1): quiet

quiet

(1): Mikul

petapan

(1): BBmolla

BBmolla

(1): Lunar Martian

Not Voting

(1): Mr Turtle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: December 28, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-12-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

- searching for a replacement for Mr Turtle
-

[fferyllt]

Prods will be paused today and tomorrow for the Christmas holiday. On the morning of the 26th, any needed prods will issued. The 26th is the day before the current deadline. I'll consider adding one more day to the deadline if prods need to be sent, OR if a majority of players wish for the deadline to be extended. Let me know by PM if you would like the extension.

Happy

Holidays!

[fferyllt]

Norfolk boy1 replaces Mr Turtle. Please welcome him!

[Lunar Martian]

Id rather turtle get replaced

Lunar I think is scum at this point

Well you thought I was Mafia the whole time and seemingly for no reason, but then you also unvoted me.

I don't trust molla and I don't think that a vague claim should be enough to protect the most suspicious player in the game.

BTW, I'm here and getting up to speed. Feel free to ask any questions or prod me on things I missed.

[Lunar Martian]

If I were turtle or lunar, I think I’d be pretty intimidated by the prospect of jumping in now. I mean lunar has a pretty rough job now, after promising that today they’d come back and start posting more, to step in and...well, basically defend against what is looking like a pretty likely vote.

I don’t know if there’s really anything that could make it easier; I guess I just want to say that Lunar (and turtle), I’m excited to hear pretty much anything from you both, and if anyone in the thread has some ideas of where they could start to make it a little less overwhelming, it would be nice to post that. I don’t have any good specific questions for them.

I'm actually kind of concerned about how everyone seems OK with killing me not because of what I've done, but simply because I haven't done much. I'm sorry that this game started when it did. I was quite busy and then out of town. The timing is unfortunate, but it feels like people are being opportunistic in being willing to kill me when I said I was unable to post much.

[Lunar Martian]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

I want to clarify this post because Illwei attacked me here:

I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.

I wasn't parroting unwnd. I'm really not reading into the 6:3 thing because while I think it's unlikely that someone wouldn't know how many Town/Mafia there are, I think its equally unlikely that Mafia would try to pretend to not know to look like Town. For that to work Mafia would have to lie about not knowing something plausible. All I was saying was that the Occam's Razor argument doesn't really apply. I'm mildly suspicious of Illwei for the way they reacted to pressure, but overall I still think that Illwei is Town for earlier posts and because I mostly agree with Illwei about who is Mafia. Mostly.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still most suspicious of BBmolla and don't know why a vague claim meant that everyone backed off.
The other two people I'm most suspicious of right now are safebet and quiet. They are both being very opportunistic in being willing to kill me today, but neither seems to have a good reason for doing so.

[Lunar Martian]

Unwnd, Illwei, and Mikul are the three I'm least suspicious of. I've talked about unwnd and Illwei already. I don't think Mikul can be partners with quiet, and has made some insightful posts iirc. I can go digging if requested.

[Mikul]

@lunar if possible (especially if deadline extension happens) I think it would be useful for you to dig a bit. Will help people get off the wagon. I think people jumping on you so easily also bothered me. The vagueness of your reads aren't going to help people town read you harder. If you would not mind. Can be after Christmas. I also will be not be able to contribute hardly anything useful until Saturday at minimum.

[BBmolla]

Id rather turtle get replaced

Lunar I think is scum at this point

Well you thought I was Mafia the whole time and seemingly for no reason, but then you also unvoted me.

I don't trust molla and I don't think that a vague claim should be enough to protect the most suspicious player in the game.

BTW, I'm here and getting up to speed. Feel free to ask any questions or prod me on things I missed.

omgus

[Norfolk Boy1]

I've re-read the entire game and to be honest, nobody is radiating town. I think that is because there is a lot of content and i'll need to do supplementary ISO reads.

For now, i'm leaning town on BBmolla and Illwei. This is purely because I don't believe scum draw this much attention to themselves on day 1.

I wasn't liking Lunar at all during my read, but the wagon on them doesn't sit right to me. I'm not sure this is the way to go right now.

Safebet and Petapan are just null for me. No leanings either way at present.

Unwnd is a townlean for me, but that's based off of an early interaction he had with (I think) Quiet. I will confirm this with my re-read.

Quiet is eliminateable for me. There's obvious nervousness followed by attempts to be more assertive in their posts. This pings me as scum being coached.

I don't understand why Mikul is being townread by most people. I'd also be on board with a Mikul elimination.

I will support these comments with some substance, but that will be later. I have little ones to get ready for Santa coming.

[petapan]

VOTE: norfolk boy1

[BBmolla]

yeah either elim is fine for me at this point

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Norfolk Boy1

short on time let's turn up the heat

[quiet]

Busy until tonight, will respond harder then.

Going to move my vote from turtle to newTurtle.

Lunar, what is your take on what norfolk just posted?

VOTE: Norfolk boy1

[quiet]

@lunar
what they just posted/ the slot in general

[Lunar Martian]

It seems like all of Norfolk's thoughts are very much within consensus except Mikul, which almost seems to have been thrown on as an afterthought. At this point I'm willing to vote Norfolk but the way the wagon materialized within 15 minutes including 2 people I think are most likely Mafia makes me hesitate. I'll wait for Norfolk to post more in-depth analysis.

[petapan]

they don't look consensus-y to me, i just don't believe those are real thoughts. the reason for his quiet scumread is bad. vague explanation of "nervousness", claiming attempting to be assertive is somehow scummy, that his play is somehow indicative of being coached (he definitely doesn't act the way he is if being coached by any of the SEs, lol)

[Illwei]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

I want to clarify this post because Illwei attacked me here:

I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.

I wasn't parroting unwnd. I'm really not reading into the 6:3 thing because while I think it's unlikely that someone wouldn't know how many Town/Mafia there are, I think its equally unlikely that Mafia would try to pretend to not know to look like Town. For that to work Mafia would have to lie about not knowing something plausible. All I was saying was that the Occam's Razor argument doesn't really apply. I'm mildly suspicious of Illwei for the way they reacted to pressure, but overall I still think that Illwei is Town for earlier posts and because I mostly agree with Illwei about who is Mafia. Mostly.

Okay wow. I'm actually an idiot here. I've been refreshing page 23 for like the past two days, wondering why people haven't been posting -_-

Okay well @Lunar If you're town, and you think unwnd is one of the least suspicious, then who is my scumread that you agree with?

Those votes really piled on Norfolk with 0 explaination except for peta. quiet/peta is feeling w/w to me right now. (not as in I think either of them are necessarily Scum yet)

[petapan]

...what

[Illwei]

I- I have no idea why I quoted that post. just came back to look.

I-

*sigh*

[petapan]

not about the quote, about this:

quiet/peta is feeling w/w to me right now. (not as in I think either of them are necessarily Scum yet)

because that's such a baffling take

[Illwei]

It was that you and quiet posted votes on turtle and only you gave explaination. looking back over that I see that quiet had his vote on Turtle before so just ignore me ig.
At the time, reading over it, it felt like you and quiet kinda agreed on the explaination that you posted, because three votes is a lot in a little time for quiet to still be fine with his (pressure?) vote on there. but Quiet also never said anything in thread, so-

I- nvm on that one.

[unwnd]

I prefer to go back to this instead.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

[fferyllt]

alles