Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[Gretchen]

i'm obv not saying entrapta is part of that 5% lmao. i just realized that post could be taken that way.. no, but reporting those kind of peeps is good

[geraintm]

Da Dude is being replaced.

Hmm, likely because slot is doomed.

Is it? Everyone left the wagon because "the wagon was going too fast" LOL

That's a fallacy. It assumes that the Mafia is stacking votes and doesn't vote each other

alicek what do yout hink of my theory that it was a scumdriven wagon and the lack of apparent counterwagons for over 24h incidicates scum is unwilling to create another one? we can easily occamrazor them being unable to away because at this point of the game that's not very difficult

So you think likely scum in April Ludgate, Gretchen, Drippinggoofball, Klick (Ydrasse)?

@ gretchen - i still don't think anyone ever explained the idris elba thing to me

[Not_Mafia]

VC 1.14

Klick (0)-

Da Dude (3)-

AliceK, Gretchen, Drippinggoofball

Amélie (0)-

DrippingGoofball (3)-

HypoSoc, bugspray, Rlotus

AliceK (1)-

Da Dude

geraintm (0)-

Gretchen (1)-

clidd

April Ludgate (3)-

MiniMegabyte, April Ludgate, Klick

RLotus (0)-

clidd (0)-

bugspray (0)-

HypoSoc (0)-

MiniMegabyte (0)-

Not Voting (2)-

Amélie, geraintm

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-03-06 20:00:00)

- Mar 3rd 20:00 GMT

[Klick]

So I like clidd's reads generally and even if he's scum I'm kinda fine with him living longer

VOTE: April Ludgate

Can't help but feel like too much makes sense if this is scum

How does it make sense?

The claim and the self-vote mostly. FL loves this sort of cheesy 'why would scum ever do this???' stuff as scum.

I'm finding myself a lot more willing to believe April is bullshitting with the N4 IC claim and using it to have prolonged influence on the gamestate than April actually drawing 'N4 IC' and playing it out like this. Also, the only thing I've read as a potential towntell in April's play is her digging into Entrapta - I'd expect to have gotten some other town ping from her at some point by now.

Also also, the self vote was reeeally bad.

[DrippingGoofball]

bugspray is town. clidd is town. da dude is still maf and no one wants a obvious maf slot. let's put it out of its misery please.

hey klick, look at entrapta's last post where she declares her replace out and tell me that sounds natural or believable. i mean really?

Finally, some sense.

[Klick]

kinda feel like fun in this game is over, boon is just going to do the same boon shit as every game and bug is going to nag me when I have emphasized to them that I am consciously working on it

like if you're going to snipe me every fucking time then it makes me feel like you don't appreciate how fucking hard it is to keep track of pronouns when there's 3 people playing cross-gender stealth alts, 8 people I've literally never played with before, and all the other fucking noise in this game

This reads completely genuine to me and also not really AI

I have the Da Dude slot as leaning town, because Da Dude himself gave some content that looked like good actual reads and I liked it. The wagon on Entrapta also felt pretty lazy for how big it got and it doesn't feel right to me.
Entrapta's play alone gave me no real leaning in either direction but maybe I'll look at it again tonight

[HypoSoc]

I haven't really been interested in the Da Dude wagon because I didn't have particular suspicions for that slot, nor did I think flipping it would reveal anything.

But now I am suspicious of MiniMegabyte, and I feel Da Dude flipping scum would all but cinch it.

That said, the Da Dude wagon is evaporating, so maybe I should just vote for my suspicion directly.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

But, if the Da Dude slot wagon returns, I am happy to swap to it.

[HypoSoc]

The claim and the self-vote mostly. FL loves this sort of cheesy 'why would scum ever do this???' stuff as scum.

Seriously, even if you doubt the claim, why would you ever vote to eliminate day 1-3?

Either you are are wrong and you wasted an elimination on an INNOCENT CHILD.
Or, you are right, and we have a GUARUNTEED scum elimination on day 4.

"Prolonged influence on gamestate" is such a nebulous benefit that is completely irrelevant if you maintain a proper ounce of suspicion.

In fact, I am HOPING April is scum, because claiming day 4 IC as scum is such a monumentally bad play for scum to make.

[Klick]

Even if I choose to ignore reads for the sake of playing *optimally* like you're suggesting, that logic still doesn't work out

If April is scum, what she'd gain from claiming D4 IC is three days where the odds of limming scum go down significantly
That's a bigger advantage for scum than you think it is; if scum made it to D4 all intact, even with a free lim in April, we'd still be in 5p LyLo which is *not* a good place for town to be

Essentially the scum gain in claiming D4 IC is reducing the available scum eliminations each day by 1, unless the bluff is called early

[Klick]

Think of it this way

Our odds of flipping scum randomly today are 3/13, but with a scum claim like that they become 2/12
Assuming we then flip a townie which is rather likely, our odds the next day are 2/10 instead of 3/11
And then the next day they're 2/8 instead of 3/9

Thats a rather large advantage for three days, and if you get through those three days successfully as scum you've gained a very large advantage that surpasses what you'd lose on the fourth day, as D5 you're in a really solid spot especially if you've been planning this with your team the whole time

This might not make sense to you but I guarantee you it makes sense to April Ludgate

[April Ludgate]

Yeah, Klick, but you just looking at what i like as scum, and not the fact that i love chaos

And you’re not looking at the plethora of games i have as town where i claim left and right

[HypoSoc]

If April is scum, what she'd gain from claiming D4 IC is three days where the odds of limming scum go down significantly

That's no more dangerous than the OTHER scum that you haven't picked out.

The odds of eliminating scum is already lower than the odds of eliminating arbitrary town because of coordination (same with masons). I am not saying don't be suspicious of April, or to treat April as IC.

Reducing POSSIBLE scum eliminations days one through three does NOT make up for a GUARUNTEED scum elimination day 4, unless scum has reason to believe town is crack shotting in their picks.


Like, here's some exploratory math. I KNOW eliminations are not random shots (town should be trying to do better than random and scum should be aiming to make it worse than random, and power rolls mess with everything), but it is illustrative and allow comparisons, so it serves as a quick and dirty heuristic.

Spoiler: Math

Say April is scum, and we explicitly refuse to vote for them until day 4. And let's say there are three scum in total (which is what I am assuming we have). So day 1, there are two unaccounted for scum, and 10 town in the line of fire.

2/12 hits. ~17% chance of hitting scum. ~83% chance of missing

Day 2, assume we missed, someone innocent is eliminated. So April, two scum, and 8 town.

2/10 hits. 20% chance 80% chance of missing

Day 3, assume we missed again, someone innocent is eliminated again. So April, two scum, and 6 town

2/8 hits. 25% chance. 75% chance of missing

Day 4, you are proven right, April is proven scum, we eliminate them. So, in the worst case, where we miss days one through three (which happens 50% of the time by this simple heuristic), we catch one scum. And 50% of the time we catch MORE than one scum.

With a quick script, the values are
1 caught: ~50%
2 caught: ~45%
3 caught: ~5%


Now consider what happens if we allow April to be in the pool of possible scum candidates. This is the case of what would have been if theoretical scum April didn't claim anything. We now have three hits in this case. For the math,
Day one: 3/13. ~77% chance to miss.
Day two: 3/11. ~73% chance to miss.
Day three: 3/9. ~67% chance to miss.
Day four: 3/7. ~57% chance to miss.

So, that would out to ~21% chance of missing four times in a row, losing the game.

With a quick script, the heuristic odds for this base case are:
0 caught: ~21%
1 caught: ~52%
2 caught: ~25%
3 caught: ~2%


And, for completeness sake, let's assume April is Scum and we eliminate them now (so, start day 2 with 2 scum and 9 town):
1 caught: ~45%
2 caught: ~47%
3 caught: ~7%

So, no. I reject your argument that "reducing the available scum eliminations each day by 1" is a significant factor. If you were ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CERTAIN that April is scum, that is only SLIGHTLY better than waiting until Day 4 to eliminate. Admittedly, it is better by a statistically significant degree, but it fails to make a difference between victory and defeat 95 times out of 100.

But if you are WRONG, then you are wasting an elimination on an innocent child, and that is absolutely a bad play.

Come back with a cop report if you want me to vote for April before day four, because I am not budging otherwise. And that's not something you have on day 1.


Edit by way of preview:
Huh, looks like you were trying to convince me using random scum flipping as an argument, but that is exactly the math I am using to show it is a bad idea.

[HypoSoc]

Yeah, Klick, but you just looking at what i like as scum, and not the fact that i love chaos

You fool! You blunderer! You thought you were doing it for the sake of chaos, but the claim you made is actually logical and advances the interests of town! You have, knowingly or not, acted in an orderly manner!

[Klick]

I can't engage with the wall of maths atm and I don't think it's really productive to do so. but I feel it's rather important to acknowledge that scum's influence on the game becomes much larger the later in the game we get with more scum alive. 3 scum voting with 9 alive instead of 2 is a rather big deal. And that increases the advantage April would get from doing this gambit in this scenario.
For example 2-3 LyLo is not actually 40% chance of limming scum because all three Town have to agree on a vote. The same applies to earlier days. If April!scum removes herself from the lim pool there's a massive payoff on D3 in particular

[geraintm]

I've just had to actually read up what an innocent child is (i don't think I've ever played with one and I wanted to check exactly what it was).
I just assumed it was a joke, but you are all treating it as real.

I plan to ignore it until day 4, until then it just isn't important.

J had to do all this because klick just went off on one and I wanted a reason to ignore it

[HypoSoc]

For example 2-3 LyLo is not actually 40% chance of limming scum because all three Town have to agree on a vote. The same applies to earlier days. If April!scum removes herself from the lim pool there's a massive payoff on D3 in particular

And killing an innocent child before they activate is also a massive payoff for scum.

I acknowledge scum coordination gets more powerful later, but worry about D3 payoff is not justification for a D1 vote. We will have far more information to work with on D3. Perhaps we will manage to catch scum today or on D2. Or perhaps April will be night killed before then making this all moot.

[DrippingGoofball]

The best strategy is for everyone to say how much they believe the IC claim and would never vote it.

[DrippingGoofball]

Like, I would never say that Day 4 IC sounds like a fakeclaim gambit because if the mod doesn't confirm the innocence, then April is toast. There won't be any doubt.

[Klick]

But then we're in D5 LyLo because we've been looking for 2 scum instead of 3

[RLotus]

Pretty sure the inno child thing is a meme and should be removed when trying to read april.

[April Ludgate]

Yeah, Klick, but you just looking at what i like as scum, and not the fact that i love chaos

You fool! You blunderer! You thought you were doing it for the sake of chaos, but the claim you made is actually logical and advances the interests of town! You have, knowingly or not, acted in an orderly manner!

When did I say chaos wasn’t helpful for town?

I know I’m helping town. Am i unorthodox? Yes. But i know how to play the game

[DrippingGoofball]

Yeah, Klick, but you just looking at what i like as scum, and not the fact that i love chaos

You fool! You blunderer! You thought you were doing it for the sake of chaos, but the claim you made is actually logical and advances the interests of town! You have, knowingly or not, acted in an orderly manner!

When did I say chaos wasn’t helpful for town?

I know I’m helping town. Am i unorthodox? Yes. But i know how to play the game

How do you read me?

[Not_Mafia]

MiniMegabyte has requested replacement.

[Amélie]

I am not sure what Mini wants to achieve here. His reads are very controversial. Why are you townreading entrapta/DaDude?

I townread Da dude.

Don't lim until I've caught up (which should be in the next 24 hours, doing a bit now).

Sure, we have plenty of time. However, keep in mind that stalling the day negatively influence people's focus.

This is pretty gross and I heavily dislike it so Alice is moving down definitely.

In post 391, RLotus wrote:
Amelie's certainty about a scumteam is a little bit concerning. I'd have to know whether this is typical for her to really know if it's scummy tho. April has this sure of himself attitude that it does seem natural that he would be trying to put together teams off rip.


Most of the people in this game haven't even played one game with me. Why are you asking other people to read me?
RLotus is definitely a scum read after this post. In my last game with RLotus, I was elimmed the day I replaced in for being too confident.

I wasn't asking someone else to read you, I was expressing that I don't know if it's necessarily scummy for you to do that.

If I recall correctly you had confidence on one read not trying to solve the whole game like now and I don't see one day phase of one game good enough to understand how you play.

In post 394, RLotus wrote:
In post 393, April Ludgate wrote:
honestly, im down to flip dadude, i think entrapta would have claimed PR if they were PR there, and i think it's an overall high info flip

Why would he claim PR on like page 10 with like 3 votes


I don't recall this ever happening.

Read the april quote. April says entrapta would have claimed PR there and I said asked why would he do that. Because it's absurd.

I don't hate nor like your reply. You will be null for now.

I’m not sure about flipping Da Dude

as their wagon formed rather quickly

so it’s either an opportunistic wagon for scum or scum could be bussing I’m not 100% sure on that plus we have time still which we can utilise

That's a terrible argument to defend Da Dude.

Yeah but scum have no reason to be defending town that is scum read to this extent.

VOTE: April

Okay, just fade me

i dont feel like arguing, just follow what my lead later

I hate this so much. His scum game isn't really that suicidal but I also just feel like he's so scummy here.

Seriously, don't waste a vote on an Innocent Child.

Let April eat a night kill for us. Or, if she proves to be lying, then get her on day four. There is ZERO reason to vote her out before then.

Gross. I don't get this at all. The claim is so ridiculous that it's either fake or the setup is very strange. I think it's fake but I'm not sure that by itself is scum indicative for April given my past experience with him being erratic.

amelie where are you reasonings for putting me super scummy? i can't fgind it in readingh ouyr post

I can't remember to be honest and I have so many scum reads that you are moving up to null for now.

amelie's probably town that's tunneled, but i still think theyre a good cop check, just in case

Again, I hate this but if there is a cop, clearing me would be nice.

So I like clidd's reads generally and even if he's scum I'm kinda fine with him living longer

VOTE: April Ludgate

Can't help but feel like too much makes sense if this is scum

I agree with this.


My top scum reads have shifted around a lot but currently they are April Ludgate, Hyposack, and AliceK

[Amélie]

Town: Da dude, Clidd, Minimegabyte, Klick
Null: Geraintm, bugspray, Gretchen, DrippingGoofball, RLotus
Scum: April Ludgate, AliceK, Hyposack