i think it's good that you outed if you were worried you might get hammered
i'm not sure we would have been able to concretely determine you effectively had a guilty on sam from your iso
In post 488, WhemeStar wrote:Crazy question: would it be best to just flip SAM here? If he is town like I think I think he is going to be miselimed like for sure in ELO. And if he is scum then I will lose the game in ELO voting with him. At least flipping SAM here would give us a little bit of information, like to me him flipping blue would make Wheme a pretty strong town, and I feel like Andante feels like a town right now. Also I feel like letting someone win as scum the way SAM played is just bad for the game. And this way I won't feel guilty for throwing if you guys were right that he was scum. Just a thought.
This actually may give me scum pings if SAM is actually mafia LMAO. My brain is trying to hold back my gut from convincing myself into a SAM vote and when I'm able to hold myself back Wheme gives me second thoughts again while at the same time voting Creative lol.
Wheme otherwise seemed quite town this game. The only thing that scared me tbh was I thought that Wheme's reaction to Creative's #94 could have been a scum Wheme breadcrumbing an invest soft so that if he could get Creative voted on this day he could cc cop in lylo with a blue on his partner SAMCRO and use all the towncred he accumulated to get town to misvote. I never said this out loud because I was afraid that Wheme was actually just outed investigative and was going to die but it's a relief now that creative claimed investigative LOL.
So at present I am thinking about Creative's claim probabilistically. We know we are in row 2. I'm not sure if everyone has posted besides SAM yet, but if I assume there are no ccs from active players, the options are either that SAMCRO afk'd as invest after claiming VT on d1 - but I disregard this option as basically impossible because I don't think a PR would afk like this? - or there is a 2/3 chance that Creative is town if there is no cc because column A and B would necessitate a cc in this situation vs. a 1/3 chance that he is scum and we are in column C.
Concluson: Pure probability - 1/3 chance that Creative is scum, 2/3 chance he is town -> ergo SAMCRO is a good vote by probability.
Thinking through the way Creative played prior to his RR it is plausiblie that he was basically sitting there seeing who would defend SAMCRO and then deem them a partner and vote them i.e. voting me.
But to be honest with you, if I'm cop with a red in this setup I would have just outted - I would have never let myself get put on E-1 and kept my vote on someone other than my red. What if someone swoops in to hammer me and I died voting seeds who was not my check? It would be totally ambiguous that I had a sided altogether - in fact it would be likely for town to assume Creatie had a NS'd check given the fact that he swapped votes.
So I guess my question to Creative is - if you had a red on SAMCRO, why did you wait so long to out it when you were on E-1 and why did you risk dying with your vote on me without RRing creating an ambiguous situation for town to interpret your implied check? This is probably the only roadblock in my mind to just quickhammering SAMCRO and moving on.
That was you in 486 lol
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:31 pm
by CreativeName
In post 600, skitter30 wrote:i think it's good that you outed if you were worried you might get hammered
i'm not sure we would have been able to concretely determine you effectively had a guilty on sam from your iso
I did soft invest results in reads lists at one point before
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:32 pm
by skitter30
oh that is good then
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:47 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 595, skitter30 wrote:i think going sam -> seeds -> wheme probably wins the game, that's just my opinion
i dont' love that you're mitigating the strength of your defense of sam tbh
and sorry that your day was rough
You probably are town in this situation for the sole reason you said T3 or SAMCRO on d1 and then T3 died - that would imply you would be backing yourself into voting your own mafia on d2 by killing the other player in you vote pool. SAMCRO was certainly playing to be bussed if they are mafia though. You are probably are town if SAMCRO flips scum - but I don't want to townbin you just yet.
You can flip me tomorrow - that's fine if you want to. But I will think through the f3 vote before the next day ends.
I'm not sure that Wheme as scum would call his partner obv town in an early post on d2 when you, creative, and kazyan were all gearing to vote him up.
Reviewing 297 actually looks incredibly townie now and totally consistent with Creative being invest. But there is a lot of other weird shit too like the 70-80% lol.
The post I was looking for was 231 Basically 3 players are gearing up for a samcro vote. I guess I am not used to forum but it seems super bold to just defend your partner when he looks like an obvious vote. In the games I play scum typically look to jump onto their partner's wagon from the idea that it will look townie to be on that wagon - specfically in the middle. In this situation that player who would be Kazayan - who suspected SAMCRO 3rd but never voted him then swapped to creative when I came in with my read.
I think Andante jumping on Kaz here #373 seems townie. And if SAM flips town it seems likely to me that Skitter and me was TvT, then Andante correctly identifying that is probably a townie thing.
So if Scum sam can give me town skitter and town skitter makes andante probably town and wheme is town for defending a scum when it appears he is going to be voted then that leaves Kaz as the partner, who opens the game saying he will play differently seeming very town early then trailing off but returning hard to defend himself hard seems a little bit scummy to me. I was trying to talk myself into a Kaz/sam pair here 433 but I was thinking they were town / town pair. If SAMCRO flips scum you will probably all view the post as me setting up a kaz push but it was a thought I had in my head as I was tossing and turning so I came back on to write it down so I wouldn't forget it.
I'll do a pure iso on creative next to process his RR.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:51 pm
by skitter30
In post 604, six pomegranate seeds wrote:You probably are town in this situation for the sole reason you said T3 or SAMCRO on d1 and then T3 died -
that would imply you would be backing yourself into voting your own mafia on d2 by killing the other player in you vote pool.
SAMCRO was certainly playing to be bussed if they are mafia though. You are probably are town if SAMCRO flips scum - but I don't want to townbin you just yet.
ftr i really wouldn't townread me for this reason alone ... i'm very good at distancing
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:53 pm
by skitter30
ftr i'm very, very, very unlikely to flip kaz before you
if we do end up flipping you next and that doesnt end the game, i will take your reads in consideration (if i haven't died by then, of course), so i would indeed appreciate seeing who you think it is
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:53 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 598, WhemeStar wrote:Uhm what that is not something I would say I dont use perfect gammar
Oh I'm sorry I meant to quote 488 I keep quoting the wrong things on accident. I was the one who wrote that thing I quoted.
Idk what I'm doing wrong.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:00 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 606, skitter30 wrote:ftr i'm very, very, very unlikely to flip kaz before you
if we do end up flipping you next and that doesnt end the game, i will take your reads in consideration (if i haven't died by then, of course), so i would indeed appreciate seeing who you think it is
All I can say then is regardless of your aligment you will live to final 5. If I was mafia with SAMCRO I will tell you exactly what I would do next.
I would vote SAMCRO, yeet you at night then cry out "Frame! Frame! That's so level 1." Just as you did when T3 died. Although I guess in that case creative will die next regardless.
I actually remember now a major reason why I TR SAMCRO, it's because T3 did. I still wonder why T3 was chosen as a kill tbh. Why would Kaz choose to night kill someone who would have helped defend his Scum while also elimming one of town Skitters susses that would basically inevitably lead town skitter to tunnel into his partner? Doesn't quite make sense tbh with you. Maybe all you guys think about is PR hunting. Tbh with you - I think PR hunting is total BS unless someone gives a clear soft. If creative is invest, he sure didn't play like one I had no idea he was invest lol.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:01 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 606, skitter30 wrote:ftr i'm very, very, very unlikely to flip kaz before you
if we do end up flipping you next and that doesnt end the game, i will take your reads in consideration (if i haven't died by then, of course), so i would indeed appreciate seeing who you think it is
In fact - if I was scum with SAM I would just quickhammer creative right now and go laughing off into the sunset LOL.
I would write some bullshit para about how Creative didnt claim for 24 hours with hammer on him and straight up hammer him lol.
Also watch SAM flip town and my original reads be validated
In post 604, six pomegranate seeds wrote:You probably are town in this situation for the sole reason you said T3 or SAMCRO on d1 and then T3 died -
that would imply you would be backing yourself into voting your own mafia on d2 by killing the other player in you vote pool.
SAMCRO was certainly playing to be bussed if they are mafia though. You are probably are town if SAMCRO flips scum - but I don't want to townbin you just yet.
ftr i really wouldn't townread me for this reason alone ... i'm very good at distancing
I did just say I wasn't town binning you just yet. I still don't understand how you could possibly be scum reading me if creative end up being town when I'm one of the players who refused to vote creative and gave him time to give his red check. In what possible world do I sit here and consider a Kaz or SAMCRO vote when I can just hammer creative and then yeet you at night and end up in final 5 with Wheme who just said I was the most town person in the game and Kaz who was also defending me?
In post 488, WhemeStar wrote:Crazy question: would it be best to just flip SAM here? If he is town like I think I think he is going to be miselimed like for sure in ELO. And if he is scum then I will lose the game in ELO voting with him. At least flipping SAM here would give us a little bit of information, like to me him flipping blue would make Wheme a pretty strong town, and I feel like Andante feels like a town right now. Also I feel like letting someone win as scum the way SAM played is just bad for the game. And this way I won't feel guilty for throwing if you guys were right that he was scum. Just a thought.
This actually may give me scum pings if SAM is actually mafia LMAO. My brain is trying to hold back my gut from convincing myself into a SAM vote and when I'm able to hold myself back Wheme gives me second thoughts again while at the same time voting Creative lol.
Wheme otherwise seemed quite town this game. The only thing that scared me tbh was I thought that Wheme's reaction to Creative's #94 could have been a scum Wheme breadcrumbing an invest soft so that if he could get Creative voted on this day he could cc cop in lylo with a blue on his partner SAMCRO and use all the towncred he accumulated to get town to misvote. I never said this out loud because I was afraid that Wheme was actually just outed investigative and was going to die but it's a relief now that creative claimed investigative LOL.
So at present I am thinking about Creative's claim probabilistically. We know we are in row 2. I'm not sure if everyone has posted besides SAM yet, but if I assume there are no ccs from active players, the options are either that SAMCRO afk'd as invest after claiming VT on d1 - but I disregard this option as basically impossible because I don't think a PR would afk like this? - or there is a 2/3 chance that Creative is town if there is no cc because column A and B would necessitate a cc in this situation vs. a 1/3 chance that he is scum and we are in column C.
Concluson: Pure probability - 1/3 chance that Creative is scum, 2/3 chance he is town -> ergo SAMCRO is a good vote by probability.
Thinking through the way Creative played prior to his RR it is plausiblie that he was basically sitting there seeing who would defend SAMCRO and then deem them a partner and vote them i.e. voting me.
But to be honest with you, if I'm cop with a red in this setup I would have just outted - I would have never let myself get put on E-1 and kept my vote on someone other than my red. What if someone swoops in to hammer me and I died voting seeds who was not my check? It would be totally ambiguous that I had a sided altogether - in fact it would be likely for town to assume Creatie had a NS'd check given the fact that he swapped votes.
So I guess my question to Creative is - if you had a red on SAMCRO, why did you wait so long to out it when you were on E-1 and why did you risk dying with your vote on me without RRing creating an ambiguous situation for town to interpret your implied check? This is probably the only roadblock in my mind to just quickhammering SAMCRO and moving on.
That was you in 486 lol
On my screen it says 488 I think my quoting system is glitchy.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:19 pm
by skitter30
In post 608, six pomegranate seeds wrote:All I can say then is regardless of your aligment you will live to final 5. If I was mafia with SAMCRO I will tell you exactly what I would do next.
I would vote SAMCRO, yeet you at night then cry out "Frame! Frame! That's so level 1." Just as you did when T3 died. Although I guess in that case creative will die next regardless.
I actually remember now a major reason why I TR SAMCRO, it's because T3 did.
- honestly if the rb is not sam (and i don't think it is) creative probably doesn't die here. or at least i'd give decent odds to me/creative dying
- again just pointing out that using t3's reads to tr sam is mighty conveninent, esp. since you werent' really using pooky's
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:21 pm
by skitter30
In post 610, six pomegranate seeds wrote:I'm one of the players who refused to vote creative and gave him time to give his red check.
tbf i don't entirely remember the timeline - were you online/posting while he was at e1?
I'm isoing creative. I think that this townpinged me earlier in game I forgot if I quoted 353 actually I quoted 360.
Anyway I think 353 really makes me think Creative is invest. It now makes total sense to me the things that I was SRing creative for was that he was playing with extra information - he reverses the TR on me solely because I am defending mafia, he self pres votes maybe because he's a little bit of a newbie invest and he just wants to live and is getting greedy wanting to find both mafia lol. Looking at my post 455 these are actually the only two points I had on creative being scum. There was also the reaching for early reads thing - but I actually do remember TRing that initially the very first time I skimmed, I think rereading the game I have a lot of preconceived notions polluting my reading. So basically almost all my biggest scumpings on creative are erased if I know he is invest. I also was just reading the game backwards perhaps with the base assumption that SAMCRO was town, which explain actually why I was so wishy washy. I kept wanting to go forward voting as if SAMCRO was town, but then my votes end up not feeling right and I backtrack. I think this game makes a lot more sense in why I had such a hard time committing to a sus if I was just reading the game backwards the whole time.
Creative just a word of advice to you, finding one red check is super good for town, wanting to live further is really greedy if you had died we'd have been a little bit screwed if you had died voting me. As soon as you were put at E-1 you probably should have rr'd. Although I was never going to hammer you tbh, and skitter and andante weren't going to either. In any case, the way you played today gives town a lot of good logs to go through, so I applaud your play. Hitting mafia n2 is also quite impressive too!
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:41 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
VOTE: SAMCRO
Anyway, it's approaching my bedtime and I'm not really keeping track of the timer and work is super draining so this is probably my vote and I doubt I will change it. I'm going to feel like a dumbass if this flips town, but here's to praying I'm finally right for one this game!
Tl;dr Creative's d2 does look like an invest, especially his "idc if you flip me after we flip SAM, I'll lose the game for town because my reads weren't good enough" reads town even if Creative was a villager but makes a lot of sense if he has a red check on SAM.
If SAMCRO doesn't flip red here idk what to think lol. Feels like this flips red.
Work is super rough so idk when I'll be back.
Wheme, Kazayan if you TR me please vote SAMCRO. You're outted scum otherwise
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:43 pm
by fferyllt
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:44 pm
by skitter30
UNVOTE:
solely to do this properly and make sure eveyone (andante and maybe kaz?) have a chance to officially not cc
i don't think they're going to tho and i'll revote immediately thereafter
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:45 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
Actually looking back it seems like you will already lol. I guess I was the only one still deciding. In any case I see no point to waiting for a replacement to come tbh. Kaz said he would swap if need be, Wheme basically said on the last page SAMCRO was obv scum now.
Maybe I'll try to search for a SAMCRO pair a little more before bed.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:45 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 617, skitter30 wrote:UNVOTE:
solely to do this properly and make sure eveyone (andante and maybe kaz?) have a chance to officially not cc
i don't think they're going to tho and i'll revote immediately thereafter
Ohhhhhhh so townie of you
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:47 pm
by skitter30
really more that it's in the newbie queue and i think it shoudl be done properly here
it isn't going to change anything ultimately but yeah
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:52 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
Flaw in my Kaz / Sam pairing. Both Kaz / Sam push creative day 1. Both Kaz and creative push creative d2. Seems dumb as F to do as a mafia pair.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:54 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
Andante is actually in a super strong postion as a scum right now. His counterpart is entirely afk for d1 so absolutely nothing is revealed about the slot. Then he gets to come in on d2 and start playing fresh. It's way easier to seem townie on d1 then on d2 and this is effectively his d1.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:58 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
I still think the "my reads are falling apart" line from Andante seems town - beause it happened at the exact same moment I felt my reads were falling apart and we both jumped into the game at a similar point. He also shared my feelings of regret in beginning to consider a SAMCRO vote "but he was an early TR!" he said in one of his posts. Idk he says this after I said it, but he said my reads were falling apart before I said it, so I dont think it's chameleoning or echoing me to get TR cred.
But now I guess it is the case that one reason I TR andante "maf don't afk" has been likely proven invalid if SAMCRO flips red LOL. But seriously what are the odds that both mafia afk'd at different points LOL.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:02 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 341, Andante wrote:Ok, I am all caught up now. I'm pretty sure the 2/3 for maf is Griff/seeds, skitter, creative
I know yall have gotten nothing from my slot, so I'll do my best to be easy to read
I personally see 0 reason to post line by line everything like seeds just did, and I was already sus for grif.
I felt #311 was a really weird line, nothing griff did struck me as super towny
I honestly think it's really townie if someone's scum reads contain no mafia in them. And that's a possibility here if SAMCRO flips red. I came into this game reading it backwards too perhaps.
