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Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:52 am
by MathBlade
In post 200, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
That’s assuming it fails yes.
I am more for using the coalition to see if the popular vibes are correct. If we get 5 town awesome but if we fail then the excluded become the voice of reason.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:54 am
by MathBlade
In post 216, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.
Kyo is town. Give me more of the wordy word goodness.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:54 am
by cyrus62
so here is my thought. pav knew save was town. by him pushing him there . it looks like he was reading him . pav was healing yessree till i looked like he was scum read. then math comes back throws some post pav town reads him. pav + math maybe. ssbm +math encant + math idk but math is scum .
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:56 am
by MathBlade
In post 240, Hakai wrote: In post 194, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 189, cyrus62 wrote:Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.
Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.
And if you're scum then the coalition fails.
In post 195, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 193, Pavowski wrote:
Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.
The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.
Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.
Implying I will feel town later?
VOTE: kyo
This is literally shading someone over their choice of words.
In post 196, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.
Slightly +town for this observation.
In post 200, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
While this is a valid mech observation it also relies on you being town.
Oops.
Why?
In post 224, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.
This observation seems more likely to come from town.
VOTE: Nathann/v]
In post 235, Farren wrote:
Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.
The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.
It's not a lie, I've played many games with her. The only problem is that scum Kyo doesn't really get scumread unless you know her meta.
Thinking about it, I actually have a lot of experience with everyone in this playerlist except yessiree and Farren.
Your reads suck but you’re town. Kyo is town here imho
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:56 am
by Save The Dragons
maybe you have trouble reading me, MB
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:57 am
by cyrus62
truth is if math is town he . he is bloody awful at it. if he is scum he is good at it and getting him or ssbm in the 5 seems to be his plan then he plans on blameing the others for it failing.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:00 am
by Save The Dragons
he's not awful at town and he's really good at mechanics
i just think he doesn't know how to read me
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:00 am
by MathBlade
In post 328, cyrus62 wrote:Save the dragons is right I play mafia the same way I live I post what's ever on my mind . But I also try to get town fighting each other so I can be the voice of reason lol.
And look at who is trying to claim themselves as the voice of reason.
This reads very much like truthtelling scum.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:02 am
by MathBlade
Convince me she’s scum. She’s the second player I have mind melded with.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:02 am
by MathBlade
In post 353, cyrus62 wrote:I'm telling you lot I am scum gee how many times do I have to say it.
I believe you’re scum.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:04 am
by MathBlade
In post 380, redtea wrote: In post 293, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@mod, what happens if a Coalition is not locked in by deadline? Is plurality in effect, or does no Coalition occur?
No coalition occurs and the game continues as a mountainous, same as if a coalition fails. Will update the rules to clear this up.
If a majority of players want an extension I can grant one though.
How do we vote for an extension? PM?
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:09 am
by MathBlade
In post 605, cyrus62 wrote:truth is if math is town he . he is bloody awful at it. if he is scum he is good at it and getting him or ssbm in the 5 seems to be his plan then he plans on blameing the others for it failing.
Again I lack a plan. Halfway jokingly debating giving you what you want as the coalition. Majority of the game townreads you imho incorrectly.
Either A we win or B you put me in the Thunderdome and we 1v1 or C you keep me out of it and I tunnel you. None of this seems bad to me.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:10 am
by MathBlade
Kinda curious where I know Hakai from. I don’t remember playing with Hakai
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:12 am
by Save The Dragons
hakai is an alt that claims to know us all
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:16 am
by MathBlade
I mean like duh but just more curiosity.
I wish them fun and alt hunting is bad but I am curious.
I just wish I had better town games on MS.
On other sites I am good town and scum.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:22 am
by Nathann
Math, what do you find Townie/mindmeldy about Kyouko and Hakai? Because the two of them are (right now, at least) the two I absolutely want to keep out of my Coalition, and I would like to know if I am wrong on that.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:24 am
by MathBlade
In post 615, Nathann wrote:Math, what do you find Townie/mindmeldy about Kyouko and Hakai? Because the two of them are (right now, at least) the two I absolutely want to keep out of my Coalition, and I would like to know if I am wrong on that.
Kyo’s mechanics seem to come from a Townie mindset I like what she’s doing there.
Hakai while I disagree with the reads seems genuine and I can see the townieness.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:26 am
by Nathann
This is a simple open setup, there's not much in mechanics this game that Scum couldn't replicate. Why do you find that worthy of a Townread?
And also, like, I can't see the genuineness from Hakai, that's why I am asking. :/
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:33 am
by Save The Dragons
nathann needs to be in the coalition
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:36 am
by MathBlade
In post 617, Nathann wrote:This is a simple open setup, there's not much in mechanics this game that Scum couldn't replicate. Why do you find that worthy of a Townread?
And also, like, I can't see the genuineness from Hakai, that's why I am asking. :/
Just because a setup is open doesn’t mean people can’t have thoughts about it.
I am going to make an extreme suggestion to make a point.
Say a setup has a rule where there’s scum in one of two players.
More than likely just elim both is the right way to go.
But someone else could make the argument that’s a bad idea.
Generally you elim within a 50/50.
We have had several discussions regarding mechanics and hers matched my thoughts.
And I don’t know how to explain it but I feel it.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:42 am
by cyrus62
lmao . he just trigger my trap and you guys dont know if he is scum . shakes head you know what i'll do you guys one better if you think him and ssbm are town go for it. but when it fails dont blame me.
HURT: all btw i said that to see who would push me for it.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:53 am
by Save The Dragons
cyrus what do you think of the coalition nathann math and i have
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:56 am
by Nathann
I'm gonna give Math a chance to finish reading the game and to then give thoughts, but I would be lying if I said I got a good feeling from anything I've read from him (irl) today. Which contrasts the earlier read I had, but hmm... Game hard.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:01 am
by Nathann
I want to say that I am hoping that Math is just wrong Town and that everything is fine, but I'm not sure if I have that much faith in my own reads so far.
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:10 am
by MathBlade
In post 622, Nathann wrote:I'm gonna give Math a chance to finish reading the game and to then give thoughts, but I would be lying if I said I got a good feeling from anything I've read from him (irl) today. Which contrasts the earlier read I had, but hmm... Game hard.
I did finish.
If you don’t like me then don’t put me in the coalition.
I am town then the coalition likely fails and we demonstrate that I am likely town.
I fail to see the problem here.
Cyrus is scum who has not answered my questions several times now.
Then he goes off about a “trap”.
I literally do not care who goes in. I am hoping we win but expecting it to fail long as Cyrus is in it.