Chivri said something about Oranje in response to Titus' preliminary VCA post. I did look and I did notice that Oranje was on red (pirate ika), orange (vonflare), blue (elusive, peregrine), and green (lihin, jackel) wagons. Hopefully someone else will make it clear what that means. But that's reason enough to pick Oranje for ISO reading during this night phase.
Spoiler: this will probably be long unless i get bored of typing
Post 57 seems like a premonition given that Jackel was mislynched later that day. I can't tell if Oranje was trying to be encouraging or not but in retrospect it seems like Jackel knew his own limits as a player and was just being honest about them.
58 early premonition about vonflare's RVS vote being off. It seems like some people are really good at reading RVS votes. Wish Oranje would hold a class or something.
skipping setuppsec i don't understand and things i don't have anything to say about
978 what, why? i mean, he was right, but how did he get from the existence of neighbourhoods to chivri is conftown?
1012 he's convinced that boonskiis was town here but i thought he was scumreading him before because of 403 and even in 903 he's still suspicious of boon in the first part of there. oh but he's saying boon townslipped in 532. In hindsight boon was right about everything he said in that post, even down to current people's estimates of 3 people being on scumteams, but I'm not sure why being informed about the setup is a townslip? I'm nullreading boon myself at the moment because i haven't read his ISO closely yet and I haven't really known what to make of the posts of his that I have seen, so i'm curious if oranje still thinks boon townslipped.
1016 is defending vyse(orange)'s inactivity but I don't think he's wrong, because his argument is that vyse wasn't posting anywhere on the site at the time and having a job is not indicative of alignment.
1416, 1418 okay, from the way this question was phrased, and who it was directed at, i'm guessing the answer is no, but i don't know why. I guess I would feel mildly relieved we weren't mislynching me in that situation but i wouldn't know if the other person was also being mislynched or not? i think there's a more obvious conclusion oranje is hoping people will draw from this but I don't know what it is. And in retrospect Oranje seems to have been right about whatever it was because the counterwagon to vonflare's was the wagon of his scumbuddy Vyse.
1522 welcomes Titus and tells her who is town. Of those who have flipped so far he was right about them all.
was wrong about Lihin in 2614. or he may have been right that Lihin was playing badly but Lihin was town nonetheless. i can't tell which but probably the second. Lihin seems to have been a newbie though. I know why sheeping is bad but I think it's a comfortable newbie strategy. "I don't know what i'm doing here but everyone else seems to so i'll just follow along until it makes sense." is the feeling behind it. I have the inclination to do it myself quite a bit but i have to keep reminding myself that the people i'm inclined to sheep might be scum and that I need to learn to form my own opinions.
Oranje, what does fudge mean? You use that word a lot: "fudge vig", "fudge massclaim" "fudge town read" "fudge shoot someone" "fudge confirmable role" "fudge out of hydra" "fudge mods" "fudge votes" "fudge explain" "fudge claim" At first I thought it was a confection and then I thought it was an adjective but now I'm not really sure.
2679 pushing for a massclaim again. he mentioned early he thought there'd probbly be a breaking strategy. maybe right maybe rolefishing i dunno.
bro seems upset that in 2739 that wgeurts claimed so i guess only half the hydra is in favour of this massclaiming stuff.
spends most of day 2 tunnelling lihin.
3437 ahahaha lucian if you're still reading this from the grave i liked your joke
3552 admits was wrong about lihin and points out that others were wrong to sheep him. i dunno i'm wrong a lot too, both when i start a wagon and when i sheep onto one, and he was right about a lot of other people (vonflare, vyse, om, elusive) so. anyway he then spends a while trying to figure out who the scum were on the wagon. i think. but he is right that everyone on a wagon is responsible for their vote, not just the driver.
3777 interesting interaction with vonflare. now that vonflare's flipping it seems oranje was in the right here.
5247 good wall about vonflare, led to lynched scum.
5251 says that elusive is crumpets town. does crumpets mean "not"? because he led a wagon on her right after this. is he using sarcasm here?
5252 scumreading lucian and cerb but they've both flipped green. In 5553 the other head disagrees with pushing lucian.
5567 joined the elusive wagon after deathfisaro's guilty on her.
Switches to peregrinev right after elusive's flip, and then successfully leads the p5 wagon, then asks us all to explain why we joined the wagon. At the time I didn't understand this but after reading about the Lihin wagon it makes sense that he wants to know who was just sheeping.
tl;dr: i liked his ISO. I often didn't understand what he was doing and i'm still missing context on some things, but it seemed liked he knew what he was doing anyway if that makes sense. like he gave reasons that required more understanding of mafia theory than i possess but he often turned out to be correct when he was doing that.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:18 am
by Bulbasaur Commonwealth
Know what?
I'm only to 234, I haven't read in detail the claims (though I've inferred the details), but I feel good enough to say this.
deathfisaro
looks
like scum, but could be town...
Drixx is probably scum...
...But Plotinus is just scum.
He's not the one I want to talk about, though.
Titus is not townposting.
Her VCA is empty, her stubbornness is not towndriven stubbornness, this is her in Hilariously Unbalanced 2, rather than her in, say, Inu-Yasha. And, yes. I can in fact tell the difference.
I also have a gut-townread on Orange Crush for what it's worth.
I'm trying really really really hard to be a nice and likeable person, so I'm just quoting this and leaving no comment other than there's a lot I could say but I'd rather be friends than take cheap shots. The snark is strong in me, but I
can
contain it.
@TPTG - That was a bit over the top, but I completely empathize with the feels that prompted that.
I'm going to go ahead and give
intent to vote Titus
unless some incredibly logical and useful analysis finally gets provided. Reputation and prior performance only count for so much, and it's time to put the crazy aside and produce.
P-Edit: Finish reading before you make any conclusions about me. There's gonna be some ugly parts coming up which will make you want to strangle me, but it gets better, I promise.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:20 am
by Bulbasaur Commonwealth
Narninian, Boonskiies, BRantz, BBmolla
^So I'll start by saying Narninian also tripped my scumdar, but I've got nothing on the others. This is where I'm at.
(I suppose I need to start signing, even though it should be REALLY obvious who I am. )
-V.
I'm only to 234, I haven't read in detail the claims (though I've inferred the details), but I feel good enough to say this.
deathfisaro
looks
like scum, but could be town...
Drixx is probably scum...
...But Plotinus is just scum.
He's not the one I want to talk about, though.
Titus is not townposting.
Her VCA is empty, her stubbornness is not towndriven stubbornness, this is her in Hilariously Unbalanced 2, rather than her in, say, Inu-Yasha. And, yes. I can in fact tell the difference.
I also have a gut-townread on Orange Crush for what it's worth.
My VCA hasn't appeared, so of course it's empty. LS
And no you can't.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:21 am
by Oranje Crush
↑deathfisaro wrote:Sweet, OC calling Boon and me the remaining Berlin duo with an OMGUS vote.
That is so pathetically weak you look like the lynch of the day already.
Uh, I never brought boon into this...
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:31 am
by Plotinus
@Bulba well I'm sorry you think that but I'm happy to know that we have two town confirmed doctors so it looks like I'll win even if I'm mislynched today. I haven't won a game yet so that will be nice. i'm out of my depth here but I'm trying anyway.
↑deathfisaro wrote:Sweet, OC calling Boon and me the remaining Berlin duo with an OMGUS vote.
That is so pathetically weak you look like the lynch of the day already.
Uh, I never brought boon into this...
Boon investigated me N3 and declared publicly that I am not mafia.
So you calling me scum implicitly says Boon had lied about his innocent on me.
Convince me why a town cop would investigate a player, get a guilty, but post an innocent the following day? Actually, doesn't have to be town cop, cop-esque role from any faction.
Do you see the hole in your logic now?
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:38 am
by deathfisaro
↑Plotinus wrote:@Bulba well I'm sorry you think that but I'm happy to know that we have two town confirmed doctors so it looks like I'll win even if I'm mislynched today. I haven't won a game yet so that will be nice. i'm out of my depth here but I'm trying anyway.
If we go into 2v1v1, two conftown doctors existing doesn't guarantee a town win (although it doesn't guarantee town loss either). We don't know what kind of powers these scums have been hiding till that situation.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:52 am
by ChriVi
I protected TTTG. So if somehow a team had two kills, they were probably trying to kill off the mason team entirely.
And yes TTTG, cross protection sounds good to me.
@EVERYONE: Give me scumreads and townreads. Null reads are not accepted at fucking page 242.
Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-03-17 11:57:34).
↑Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:Mod - According to your rulesheet, does a non-majority lynch at deadline lead to a no-lynch? (Aka if the majority wagon is at 9 at DL, will that be a lynch or a no-lynch?)
Yes, you need 13 votes or there will be a no-lynch.
Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-11 10:14:33).
Deadline is suspended while I search for replacements.
elusive
, Plotinus,
vonflare
and Titus are being replaced.
It is possible that some roles were altered for balance after the 13p games were combined if the role(s) would have resulted in a severe balance issue. Otherwise, the roles were left intact.
Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-05-02 10:26:22).
----------
PeregrineV
-
Indigo Tourmaline Werewolf Modified Bulletproof
- Lynched day five.
It is now twilight five. Twilight will end in (expired on 2015-04-20 12:31:32).
Night five will end and day six will begin in (expired on 2015-04-21 12:31:32).
Day 1, we had three end of day wagons. Drixx, PV and Jackal. PV flipped scum. Jackal flipped town. ika refused to vote any of the major wagons day 1 and instead tried to force a new wagon. Odd. Major negative points to Drixx. The only time I've ever seen ika derail lol wagons was as scum. I should have seen that before but I was blinded by him working with me.
1.03 suggests that Drixx and BC are not likely red scum together.
1.05 both of them following onto the same town wagon reads off to me. Why, if they were both fighting, would they then be next to each other.
1.13 has a very town heavy wagon on Drixx.
Then that wagon dismantles when the back end jumps to Brantz, which has a very scumloaded front wagon. If Drixx has a partner, Narninian looks like a major suspect from this.
Boonskiies, deathfisaro, Oranje Crush, Bulbasaur Commonwealth, Narninian, Drixx <-- None of those players on Lihin's wagon have flipped. That's frightening.
Plotinus spends a lot of time voting outed cops. That's also disconcerting. He voted Brantz frequently when he could remove himself from the game.
1.08 is the most interesting of all.
If orange has daychat, it suggests scum were colluding not to bus as neither vonflare nor Vyse were voting each other.
If that's the case then one of Drixx, BBmolla, Bulbasaur Commonwealth, Oranje Crush must be the orange partner.
3.02 suggests not Orange Crush as he and vonflare were going after each other well before his wagon had serious momentum.
So that leaves BB, Drixx and BC as orange.
2.01 where Vyse votes BC and BC voting copper suggests that Vyse and BC are not likely partners. Vyse wanted copper dead most of the game, bussing a partner there which would undermine his push on someone the team wanted dead makes little sense.
So we're down to BB and Drixx.
BB has had a lot of town wagons on him like 1.14.
Drixx was a counter to the known tracker .
Drixx, BB, OC/Narnian, Plotinus (gut here, needs more work). <--- That would be my lynch order.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:55 am
by Titus
My VCA still needs polishing but that's what jumps at me.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:56 am
by Titus
↑ChriVi wrote:I protected TTTG. So if somehow a team had two kills, they were probably trying to kill off the mason team entirely.
And yes TTTG, cross protection sounds good to me.
@EVERYONE: Give me scumreads and townreads. Null reads are not accepted at fucking page 242.
This should be done
before
boonskiies and death or any other investigator outs results.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:02 am
by Drixx
That was underwhelming. I'm completely shocked and surprised.
Vote: Titus
@Town - I re-iterate my previous statement: if you have any doubt about me, please lynch me sooner than later. Today, preferably. Get that doubt out of the way while we have mislynches to spare. All you need to ask yourself is if you would vote for me over other people in a MYLO/LYLO situation. The trick to avoiding mistakes in the present is to realize what you will think/know in the future and decide to think that now. So ... if you aren't going to trust me then, you should not trust me now and you should vote for and lynch me. I don't mind going to the gallows to clarify the game state and ensure that I don't cost us the win in an endgame scenario.
Don't just dismiss it. Take time and think about it. There's absolutely no reason to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:04 am
by Plotinus
oh, yeah. well i hope we win anyway. if i'm reading things right then i think even if we were voting at complete random, we would have a 57% chance today if yesterday we were speculating about 2 berlin left + 1 volcano left and now there's some new kill flavour. I mean, there's 7 of us in [narnian, drixx, oranjecrush, brantz, bulba, titus, me], the people who are neither modconfirmed town, nor cop confirmed town. i know i'm in the green group but you guys don't and it's okay that you don't. i don't know if titus is in the green group but i'm looking forward to her VCA. and with 6000 posts of data we can do a lot better than random chance at this so i do think we can win this.
i think titus' VCA is going to have to help us even if she's not town because then people wouldn't trust her VCA in future games with her. i think if she's scum she'll just give us partial truth instead of whole truth and we can work with that.
i would like for Chivri to explain what she saw in Oranje's voting pattern. the combination of new kill flavour and amnesiac concerns me as well about oranje. i don't know whether him being right about stuff a lot is because he knows the answers or because he's good at this.
i'm a little suspicious of brantz because i think his ability could be really good allibi as scum and also new kill flavour + brantz having used up his pseudocide ability
i like narninian as town from what i've seen of him so far but this is gut because i've still only skimmed his ISO not read every post in detail.
i think bulba is a bit scummy but it's a gut read, have only skimmed his ISO so mainly based on the posts since i joined.
on the fence about titus but i'll come down on the town side.
on the fence about drixx too, but i also think he might be town.
everyone i didn't mention is either mod confirmed town or cop confirmed town. those are my reads right now.
pedit: i haven't read titus' VCA yet but i'm really glad she posted it.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:06 am
by Narninian
100% Town
Narninian - from my perspective obviously
Three-Pronged Trouser God (Untrod Tripod & kuribo & T-Bone) -- mason partner is dead
ChriVi (Chrimi & Viomi)- 1 way mason partner dead
----------------------------------------------
Town Lean
deathfisaro - Certainly not werewolf, if an investigator would have probably been better off not nailing opposing scum team with so many town to kill still. Boonskiis's clear certainly helps.
BBmolla -- claim isn't proof of town, but nightskip seems to be best suited to town. Has hit any red flags posting wise for me
Titus - may have done her share of tunneling but I don't see a scum angle from this
Undetermined
Boonskiies - once he gives us a result we can use, I'll feel better about him.
Bulbasaur Commonwealth (Bulbazak & mastin2 & Voidedmafia) - nothing stands out here.
---------------------------------------
Scum lean
Drixx
BRantz -
Oranje Crush.
PEDIT: After Titus's VCA - I'm happier with a Drixx Vote.
VOTE: Drixx
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:18 am
by Titus
@All, is it just me, or does Plotinus just ping the gut wrong?
VOTE: Drixx
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:18 am
by Titus
Narnian, you didn't even mention Plot...
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:21 am
by Drixx
Totally cool with that. More people should give serious thought to things. I have claimed a role that we seem to all agree has no utility since it protects me from what we believe to be an extinct faction. Since I am not well trusted, it follows logically that I am more likely (if town) to be used or manipulated to help scum who can exploit that distrust. Much better to know I was telling the truth and re-assess from there.
Choo-choo this wagon and get into twilight and do some real scum hunting. I will have lots to say in said twilight period once everyone knows that they can trust me to be doing my best and whether I'm right or wrong, at least townies will know they can trust my motives. I'm totally looking forward to that 24 hour period where I can speak my mind and nobody can throw irrational bullshit at me, because this game totally has the awesome ability to be flipped and confirmed and then get to still play for twilight. Super cool feature and I hope more games use it
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:23 am
by Narninian
right, I meant to put him as a scum leam
So
Drixx,
Oranje
Plot
Brantz
Scummiest first.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:23 am
by Bulbasaur Commonwealth
Yeah, my lynchpool for today is looking an awful lot like Titus/Plotinus/Narninian/Drixx in about that order.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:24 am
by Bulbasaur Commonwealth
(Three scum left, I do believe, means at least one of them is town, but hey, I'm really not seeing scum elsewhere, and I'm REALLY seeing scum in there.)
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:26 am
by Titus
Wow, you claim my VCA was empty.
I post my VCA.
No response.
If you did, you'd realize my VCA leads to similar conclusions.
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:27 am
by Drixx
Come on BC and vote for me. The wagon is rolling and I've got my bags packed and I'm ready to go. Let's do this!
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:28 am
by Drixx
I feel like I'm 30 years younger and running for class president or something. Vote Drixx!
)
