A Musical Mafia! (Game over)


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Post Post #6025 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 3:54 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

I think the thing that bothers me about Cerberus the most significantly is that he's been decently active and engaged this game but it doesn't feel like he actually is either of those things, if that makes sense. I think that him focusing on the Mirhawk miller situation and doing nothing else looks pretty strange, and the reason I find this strange is pretty easily addressed in ; from what I've read of his town game (I don't think I've experienced it often), I've been impressed with his high activity and engagement as town, while the Cerberus I see here is decidedly lacking. It's completely possible that he's town having an off game (since this is a weird game in general), but him coming into the game saying that he wasn't going to be the usual town Cerberus and complaining about not being able to get engaged in the game is still a red flag for me.

I also think that the way he seems to ineffectively white knight every town player that's about to be lynched is weird (with probably the exception of Mirhawk), especially when I don't really understand his reasoning behind any of those townreads. He seemed to be scumreading ranger in 1599 (or, at the very least, having some serious dislike for one of her posts), then calls her wagon terrible in . Posts like bother me because he's not taking any sort of responsibility for finding scum; he's just townreading people because ??? but for some reason expects other people to do the legwork for him.

There's also this post:
In post 2124, Cerberus v666 wrote:Man. You know me hippy. Like, hard defending someone off a nebulous townread I can't substantiate is NOT something I do. Neither is voting someone without a reason to actually scumread them. Why the fuck would I go out of my way to hard defend ranger right now, when I could just be silent and let you get taken into the night? Knowing that this game does have people who know me, who'll be like oh hey, yeah, Cerb is playing in a wholly unnatural fashion for him!
...which sounds like a line that I'd use as scum, which isn't exactly a fantastic scumtell, exactly, but I understand the mindset all too well; as scum, you do things that you wouldn't do as town and wouldn't do as scum just to play different, and you play suboptimally just so you can point back to it later and say that this isn't really something that you'd do as scum.
In post 2605, Cerberus v666 wrote:Yo pip. Shouldn't you try to get me lynched? It's a golden opportunity. Maybe I'll get out of this state of detachment I'm currently in if you attack me.
I think that Cerb-Pip interactions look pretty strange; to the best of my knowledge, Pip is the only one that Cerb encouraged to attack him and is the only person that Cerb got suspicious of for townreading him. This probably isn't relevant to anything since there's not really a definitive thing to draw from it either way, but.
In post 3277, Cerberus v666 wrote:Also, I really wish someone who I wasn't already townreading had been the one to point out that my play isn't up to par for me. Minimal value gained. I guess cakez said it too, but like, his only completed game with me I was scum, and uncharacteristically inactive, so he isn't quite as versed in what normal me is.
And this is probably a point that I've mentioned elsewhere in this post, but I'm not really buying the whole "man, I'm playing so differently, I wish people were seeing that who I wasn't townreading" as a town tell? I don't understand why people scumreading Cerb for playing off would be town; scum and town alike are capable when realizing that a player is playing not as well as they usually do, especially when this is something that they mention many, many times. Again, it feels like these are things that he's mentioning simply because he wouldn't mention them as scum and less because they're a part of his actual thought process.

I don't think that there's anything else that's significant in his ISO; I'll address Pip's Mirhawk case that seems to be guiding his read in a minute. If he's scum, then he's posturing himself to have as strong a VCA/read record as possible while not pushing cases and votes too much himself, probably to set up to take control late game. If he's town, then he's been having pretty strong reads with no reasons behind them and while being stuck in the ether for pretty much the entirety of the game.
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Post Post #6026 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 3:57 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

Ugh fuck is this another denmark mafia. Im going to look back onto.the claim thing and recheck the logic
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Post Post #6027 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:00 pm

Post by dramonic »

oh my god nobody cares plot, just claim or self-hammer so we can GET THIS GAME GOING.
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Post Post #6028 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:03 pm

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6024, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 6021, SirCakez wrote:Dwlee what's your plan if this flips town?
It might give me the real push I need to stop playing this game, join extracurricular things and make new friends, start hanging out with current and new friends, tryhard in school, get into MIT, graduate valedictorian, be the next bill gates, marry the girl of my dreams named Alex, and have a successful and very happy life. Why?
You should do this anyway!

TPP please claim now rather then later
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Post Post #6029 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:06 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

We're a limited-shot bulletproof; our shots are passive over active.

A significant portion of wanting to wait on claiming is because I fully expect this claim to get us lynched, and am trying to form a complete readslist before we get lynched.
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Post Post #6030 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:11 pm

Post by dramonic »

Thank you.
You may now continue spouting useless drivel.
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Post Post #6031 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:11 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

I don't have any significant analysis re: dramonic. I think that he's been utterly useless this game, and will continue to be useless for a very long time. I don't think expecting him to be accurate is a fair expectation. I don't think that he's particularly unlikely to bus as scum, especially if he's pissed off at scum partners. If Dwlee is scum, I'd probably slot him closer towards town (since I can't imagine him not bussing there unless Dwlee talked about how great he was in the scum QT or something).

I think that the reason that Podo was townreading him was because he's confident about his reads and also an ass to everyone who disagrees with them, but that's dramonic regardless of alignment and I'm not sure that I see anything here that's particularly fakeable.
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Post Post #6032 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:15 pm

Post by SirCakez »

Hmmmm
Flavor?
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Post Post #6033 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:16 pm

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6029, The Pied Piper wrote:A significant portion of wanting to wait on claiming is because I fully expect this claim to get us lynched, and am trying to form a complete readslist before we get lynched.
Stuff like this makes me paranoid of a townflip.
Kinda worried now.
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Post Post #6034 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:16 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

Matilda.
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Post Post #6035 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

In post 6030, dramonic wrote:Thank you.
You may now continue spouting useless drivel.
Please stop directing stuff like this towards Plot specifically.
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Post Post #6036 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by Cerberus v666 »

In post 6032, SirCakez wrote:Hmmmm
Flavor?
Yes, flavor please. Although now that I think about it, I believe their flavor was crumbed earlier, talah caught the crumb, and it was confirmed by then. I don't remember what it was, but it wasn't the flavor I care about.
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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10688009
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Post Post #6037 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 6028, SirCakez wrote:
In post 6024, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 6021, SirCakez wrote:Dwlee what's your plan if this flips town?
It might give me the real push I need to stop playing this game, join extracurricular things and make new friends, start hanging out with current and new friends, tryhard in school, get into MIT, graduate valedictorian, be the next bill gates, marry the girl of my dreams named Alex, and have a successful and very happy life. Why?
You should do this anyway!

TPP please claim now rather then later
Mafia + League + On and off lack of motivation to do anything prevents it. Okay lemme go pull up what I.want to talk about with the claim and stuff
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #6038 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:19 pm

Post by Cerberus v666 »

For the record, TPP, a large part of my weirdness this game isn't so much from me deliberately playing differently, as from the fact that while this game has been going on, I've also been playing in other games with much more involved mechanical things to consider, and have thus been devoting the majority of my time and effort towards those games, because that's kinda my thing. They've both been hydra games, so it doesn't show up if you look at my ego, but yeah. *shrug*

Anyways, carry on, I very much want to hear everything you have to say(and hopefully people will stop being dumb and will lynch elsewhere).
GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10688009
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Post Post #6039 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:21 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 3920, The Pied Piper wrote:l
In post 3917, Dwlee99 wrote:not crumbing softing same thing
In post 3918, itlepip wrote:TPP what was your intention with that soft?
We've been saying we have
*
¨
*
.
¸
reasons
¸
¸
.
*
to believe that tictac is town since the start of day 2. It's just the first soft that anybody paid any attention to. I can't answer your question more fully without outing a bunch of PRs for no reason; sorry. If anybody I believed to be town were in danger of being lynched I'd explain enough to prevent that from happening but as it is all you really need to know is that I have a townread on tictac that will be explained sooner or later. Possibly sooner not until my hydra partner is less busy.
So here they say they crumbed stuff multiple times, but then they say people they believe to be town rather than people they know.are town. But the odd thinf is how they say their claim outs a bunch of prs. It doesnt make sense
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #6040 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:23 pm

Post by SirCakez »

Just so you know, since I was a dick earlier, I think you're really cool and nice Plot, don't take any complaints about your posts directly to heart.
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Post Post #6041 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:29 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

In post 3225, itlepip wrote:@Cerb the jist of it is that his later day pushes by deadline doesn't feel like town especially given that he just abandons his Dav push. His early day is all just 'dav is scum dav is scum dav is scum' he votes pistach, and then goes back to dav after the whole Amiham slip thing. Then deadline hits and in short succession he calls ranger, Cakez, Skybird, all scum based on which one is the most popular at the time and never even mentions Dav again in any sort of negative light for the rest of the game. I don't understand why a town player would ever think that he has a clear caught scum, and then give it up not only due to deadline panic, but then the next day he completely forgets that this player was ever considered scummy by him. It is something I have done as scum by accident, but I can't ever imagine as town just giving up on a scum push that I was death tunneling because meh. Like he never actually says that Cakez is worse than dav or anything like that, he just seems to forget that Dav is even in the game after his last case against him.

Full disclosure I was hoping for worse answer from him regarding dav but the answers he gave don't invalidate my case at all imo. Its a bit complicated and I'm on a phone so the full thing will appear later tonight.
I can't say that this is reasoning that I strongly disagree with (this is part of why I suspected Mirhawk before), but I don't think it holds up considering his body of work. I also don't think that holding losing focus on Dav as a major point against him is fair, though; I think that it was pretty natural for Mirhawk to lose focus on a player who lurks like crazy (and thus there's not a whole lot about them you can say in general), and someone who the rest of the playerlist was pretty much ignoring.
I also think that it's unfair to accuse him of joining "every popular wagon when they were the most popular"; when he joined the Skybird wagon, he was in the lead with about 4-5 secondary two person wagons to choose from.
His suspicion of Ranger formed when there were zero votes on Ranger and 4 on Friendless Seniors.
He joined the Cakez wagon when Cakez was at 1 and Friendless Seniors was at 7.
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Post Post #6042 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:31 pm

Post by SirCakez »

The fact Mirhawk has disappeared completely from the game at deadline is super scummy also.
Wish we could lynch there still :/
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Post Post #6043 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:39 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 6039, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 3920, The Pied Piper wrote:l
In post 3917, Dwlee99 wrote:not crumbing softing same thing
In post 3918, itlepip wrote:TPP what was your intention with that soft?
We've been saying we have
*
¨
*
.
¸
reasons
¸
¸
.
*
to believe that tictac is town since the start of day 2. It's just the first soft that anybody paid any attention to. I can't answer your question more fully without outing a bunch of PRs for no reason; sorry. If anybody I believed to be town were in danger of being lynched I'd explain enough to prevent that from happening but as it is all you really need to know is that I have a townread on tictac that will be explained sooner or later. Possibly sooner not until my hydra partner is less busy.
So here they say they crumbed stuff multiple times, but then they say people they believe to be town rather than people they know.are town. But the odd thinf is how they say their claim outs a bunch of prs. It doesnt make sense
someone talk to me about this
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #6044 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:40 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

In post 6039, Dwlee99 wrote:So here they say they crumbed stuff multiple times, but then they say people they believe to be town rather than people they know.are town. But the odd thinf is how they say their claim outs a bunch of prs. It doesnt make sense
The reason why we crumbed the tictac innocent like a crumb was in order to draw a kill to us.
Us explaining our crumb did have the potential of outing a good number of PRs; explaining the crumb on tictac meant that we had to explain why we were outing tictac which means we're outing Tictac and Cakez and ourselves if the thought process is fully pursued. Another piece of why we said we would out a bunch of PRs was because we thought that it would make us look like we were trusted by PRs (aka more townread than we were) and that we were also privvy to more information than we were to make ourselves a more appetizing nightkill (this was alluded to when we talked about being a "wizard", which was a reference to Jingle's play in Original Mafia, where he constantly talked about having some awesome plan as long as people just No Lynched and then got nightkilled.

I feel it's disingenuous for you to suddenly start reaching out to other people and start trying to think about our play and consider our alignment right before we get lynched. For one, this is coming on the heels of us accusing you of not doing just that, and for two, it looks like you trying to mitigate the impact of us flipping town right when it looks like we're probably going to get lynched.
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Post Post #6045 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:44 pm

Post by The Pied Piper »

In post 6042, SirCakez wrote:The fact Mirhawk has disappeared completely from the game at deadline is super scummy also.
Wish we could lynch there still :/
I don't think that a lapse in posting for an extremely active player is particularly suspicious.
Do you think that my reasons for finding Mirhawk town lack are completely off base?
What do you think of what I've pointed out on Dwlee?
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Post Post #6046 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:50 pm

Post by SirCakez »

On the Mirhawk town case - I don't think his increased post count/emotional investment is indicative of town. I'm often more engaged and invested as scum. Especially as he became the top lynch target I don't think upping his posting is especially townie.
Dwlee is still a wild card to me because I know he death tunnels with little reasoning as town, I've seen it before. I remember his entrance being pretty townie and there's nothing smoking-gun on him. What specifically did you point out on him?
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Post Post #6047 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:55 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

I have so much doubts about tpp now. I literally based my entire read on them off flawed logic wjxbejxjen
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #6048 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 4:59 pm

Post by Cerberus v666 »

In post 6047, Dwlee99 wrote:I have so much doubts about tpp now. I literally based my entire read on them off flawed logic wjxbejxjen
Pretty sure I told you this days ago. Maybe even weeks ago.
GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10688009
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Post Post #6049 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2016 5:02 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

:(
I prefer they, thanks :)
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