Post Apocalyptic Mafia - Mini 1226: Over!

[Magua]

Confirmed town status after replacing into a Slaxx game:

2 for 2

3 for 3

This makes Diddin town for sure.

Leaves two scum in Regfan, Zajnet, Wraith, xvart, Nicodemus.

Regfan's going to die tonight, so trololololol and ignore.

Leaves Zajnet, Wraith, xvart, Nicodemus.

I do not see a Wraith / xvart pairing. I continue to read Nicodemus as town. So by my superior process of elimination skillz:

UNVOTE: No lynch
VOTE: Zajnet

[Magua]

Magua - do you move during the night (i.e. the tracker ability would see you moving to Goath) or does the shot get redirected to you?

Slaxx says I visit Banshee (would appear on tracker report, etc).

[Wraith]

I still advocate a No Lynch.

[Banshee]

I still advocate a No Lynch.

Since that seems unlikely, can you express an opinion on the other players? Can you explain why expressing those views creates WIFOM for yourself or for town? You use that word so often. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[Magua]

I still advocate a No Lynch.

I could see three mafia + lyncher if there was a lot of town power.

I can't see three mafia + lyncher with close to zero town power -- which is what we have: an inventor and two confirmed town.

So, I'm curious if you still think there's three mafia, or why you would still advocate no lynch.

[Wraith]

In fact now I advocate a No Lynch more than ever because there are numerous flaws in Regfan's plan. In fact, I don't think they'll kill Regfan at all, no matter what his alignment. Bear with me here:

This is the setup right now:

Confirmed Town

Banshee
diddin
Magua

Possible Scum

Regfan
Wraith
Zajnet
xvart
Nicodemus

Banshee and Magua will be protected tonight because even if Regfan is scum he has to follow his own plan or else he will be obvious scum, so the only possible kills are:

Regfan
Wraith
diddin
Zajnet
xvart
Nicodemus

I will not die because I am the primary mislynch fodder. Regfan will not be killed. Why? Regfan is either scum, or the only other player that can create WIFOM. If he is town and dies, then the possible scumteam is narrowed down to:

Wraith
xvart
Nico
Zajnet

What town should do in this position is lynch someone in-between, like Nico or Zajnet, because they are safe lynches. They don't have to believe me, all they have to do is not lynch me that day and they still have a chance. I know that sounds incredibly scummy, but bear with me. Since I'm the only one who thinks I am town, I'd be the only one who knew that the other three were scum. The scum have to keep Regfan alive for potential WIFOM to keep it ambiguous on all ends. Okay, that's starting to confuse me too. IN SHORT: If Regfan is the nightkill, then I will be certain as to who the scumteam is, although the rest of the town won't be. If Regfan lives through the day, then no one will be 100% certain who the scumteam is. So Regfan has to live, it's just advantageous.

So I think DIDDIN will be the kill tonight. It's the most sensible choice, as everyone considers him confirmed town, and killing anyone else would pretty much condemn the scumteam in someone's eyes.

[Wraith]

Rereading my little plan really makes me want to clarify something, because my whole "Guys guys please don't lynch me please lynch these other guys not me" plan might really make me look in a bad light. Here's a little blurb about how I'd play scum in this position:

I'D THROW MYSELF UNDER THE BUS.

If I was scum at this point I'd realize I was doomed, and just have my teammates mercy kill me to avoid me implicating them in my downward spiral. I WOULD NOT point the fingers at the other people who could very plausibly be my scumbuddies and push push push for their lynch. I don't do gambits like that as scum, I leave that kind of play for better players.

What I'm asking the town is a longshot, but I'm not asking you to believe me, I'm just asking you to trust me.

[Banshee]

Magua - do you move during the night (i.e. the tracker ability would see you moving to Goath) or does the shot get redirected to you?

What was the purpose of this question, please?

[Wraith]

Magua - do you move during the night (i.e. the tracker ability would see you moving to Goath) or does the shot get redirected to you?

What was the purpose of this question, please?

Roleblocker alarm bells ringing.

[Magua]

Wraith, if diddin dies tonight then we can always NL tomorrow and Regfan protect again, since it's two-shot.

Additionally, if there were a Roleblocker than Diddin would've been roleblocked last Night, which he obviously wasn't. So I don't think there is one.

It is possible that Regfan is scum, but his partner would still be in the pool of (Wraith, xvart, Nicodemus, Zajnet). Given that we're in a state where neither Banshee or I can die over the next two Nights, I'm very much preferring to try to lynch scum from that group, because if we do, then we force scum to either shoot one of the uncleareds or no kill (which would give us another mislynch). If we NL now, we give up the possibility of that happening.

That is, there's nothing we gain from NL'ing today that we could not gain from NL'ing tomorrow, unless you believe there are three scum.

[Banshee]

An overview of Wraith's plan:

• Regfan protects Magua. Magua protects Banshee (me!). I am safe.
  Diddin gives his power to whomever he thinks is best. Preferably not Regfan, Wraith, Zajnet or xvart, from my perspective. Other than that it's all much the same.
  Scum kills one of Regfan, Zajnet, xvart, Nicodemus, diddin. Apparently scum won't kill Wraith because he's easy lynchbait. Wraith thinks they will kill diddin.
  Wraith and Wraith ALONE will know that at least two of the other four are scum! 50-50 chance at scum. Profit.

An overview of the plan as devised by everyone else.

• We lynch Wraith.
  Regfan protects Magua. Magua protects Banshee (me!). I am safe.
  Diddin gives his power to whomever he thinks is best. Preferably not Regfan, Zajnet or xvart, from my perspective. Other than that it's all much the same.
  Scum kills one of Regfan, Zajnet, xvart, Nicodemus, diddin. I agree it's likely they will kill diddin but they might kill Regfan if he's town to break down the protection racket.
  EVERYONE will know that at least two of the remaining four are scum. A GUARANTEED 50-50 chance at scum. Profit.

Wraith's no-lynch plan does not help anyone at all except Wraith.

Corrections to my logic are always welcome.

[Banshee]

ETA: This assumes that Wraith is town as his scenario indicates. If Wraith is scum, hey, we have lynched scum and that's profit up front with no waiting.

[Magua]

No. Diddin gives Banshee the invention. No argument.

No one else is guaranteed to be alive D5 (ie, if mafia shoot Regfan N3 and I get the power N3, I can still die N4).

The only complaint about Banshee getting it is if there's a roleblocker, but that's an utterly pointless concern, as if there's a roleblocker, they would just roleblock Diddin and boom it doesn't matter.

[Slaxx]

Votecount 3.04

Banshee(0)

Regfan(0)

:

Magua(0)

:

Wraith(4)

: Banshee, Nicodemus, Zajnet, Xvart

Nicodemus(0)

:

Zajnet(1)

: Magua

xvart(1)

: Regfan

diddin(0)

:

No-Lynch (1)

: Wraith

Not Voting:

diddin

4 Required to No-Lynch.
5 is a majority.
Deadline is in (expired on 2011-09-24 21:00:00)

[Banshee]

Okay, at this point we need to come together on a lynch.

I know Magua is town and he's been around longer than I have and has had a chance to become comfortable and to understand the town better than I do. So I'm okay with sheeping his vote. I also know diddin is town and I would trust his guidance as well. For myself, Wraith is definitely the best lynch. But I have only read this game in its entirety ONCE, unlike those who have been here all along.

Diddin, can you give any thoughts on who you think is scum? Would be REALLY helpful right now.

Thanks!

[Wraith]

@Banshee: The big difference between my scenario and everyone else's is that while you guys think there are two scum I think there are three.

[Banshee]

@Banshee: The big difference between my scenario and everyone else's is that while you guys think there are two scum I think there are three.

Then why are you arguing we should lynch someone, anyone but you?

That makes ZERO sense if you're telling the truth.

[Magua]

@Banshee: The big difference between my scenario and everyone else's is that while you guys think there are two scum I think there are three.

3 scum + 1 lyncher vs an inventor and two confirmed townies?

No.

[Wraith]

@Banshee: The big difference between my scenario and everyone else's is that while you guys think there are two scum I think there are three.

Then why are you arguing we should lynch someone, anyone but you?

That makes ZERO sense if you're telling the truth.

You are apparently not reading everything I say. I said NO LYNCH TODAY LYNCH TOMORROW.

But you guys do whatever. You aren't listening to me at all this point.

[Banshee]

What town should do in this position is lynch someone in-between, like Nico or Zajnet, because they are safe lynches.

They don't have to believe me, all they have to do is not lynch me that day and they still have a chance. I know that sounds incredibly scummy, but bear with me. Since I'm the only one who thinks I am town, I'd be the only one who knew that the other three were scum. The scum have to keep Regfan alive for potential WIFOM to keep it ambiguous on all ends. Okay, that's starting to confuse me too. IN SHORT: If Regfan is the nightkill, then I will be certain as to who the scumteam is, although the rest of the town won't be. If Regfan lives through the day, then no one will be 100% certain who the scumteam is. So Regfan has to live, it's just advantageous.

What does this mean, then?

Why are they safe lynches? Especially Nico?

Why should we believe you're town? You used

WIFOM

as an excuse not to give reads. REALLY? SRSLY?

[Magua]

I honestly think at this point that Wraith is just too damn scummy to be scum.

Am thinking xvart + Zajnet.

Rereading Hinduragi D1, I'm rethinking my Nicodemus town-read. I'm still having a problem with placing the Hinduragi and Fate kills and feel like I'm missing something.

[Banshee]

Okay. At this point with a reread I can support a Wraith or a Zajnet lynch. Less sure on Xvart. No other likely lynch wagons for me today, and I'm not up for a no-lynch.

I request that no one hammer until we're closer to deadline or until Diddin can weigh in with any thoughts or ideas he has. Thanks!

[Slaxx]

I just read in my own rules (dont ask) and I remembered I made no-lynching impossible this game. So no more trolling me and voting no lynch.

[Slaxx]

Also, Regfan is gonna be V/La two days. Something about robbing banks.

[Banshee]

Well, that settles the no-lynch question.

Time to reveal your reads on people, Wraith.