Mafiascum.net

↑ implosion wrote:

Safety wrote:implosion and SafetyDance are scum together. I can almost guarantee it.

Have you heard of Bayes' theorem?

I'm not sure how P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B) is relevant to this situation.

↑ ac1983fan wrote:

↑ implosion wrote:

Safety wrote:implosion and SafetyDance are scum together. I can almost guarantee it.

Have you heard of Bayes' theorem?

I'm not sure how P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B) is relevant to this situation.

This might illuminate it a bit.
Let's say A represents the statement "implosion and safety are both scum" and B represents the statement "implosion and safetydance will say all of the things that they've said."

Then p(B|A) may be decently large, but P(A) is very small.

In other words, if you're going to make the bold statement "i'm confident that implosion and safety are scum together," you need a hell of a lot more evidence than you do to make either claim on its own, and not only has HD only read about 1/5 of the game, but he hasn't even made that much in-depth analysis of stuff - he's more just said "this is scummy" or laughed at things.

Think about it with respect to the comic. If I'm going to say "the sun has exploded," I'm going to need a lot more evidence than simply a 1/36 chance.

Additionally, the denominator becomes (P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|!A)P(!A)). P(!A) is large (probably around 95%). So HD also needs to show that P(B|!A) is small. That is, he needs to show that safety and I say the things we've said as town. And given that a lot of his analysis has just been criticizing playstyles, he has not shown that.

Also, I just realized that I accidentally attributed the "safety and implosion are scum together" quote to safety instead of human destroyer.

Let this be a lesson to those who are still pushing the scumslip that .

alternatively you can call that a scumslip and i'll just laugh at you.

implosion why are you acting as Safety's drawbridge?

Whenever an argumentative knight comes galloping towards Safety's castle you're all like and Safety can cower safely in his self-constructed ivory tower.

But really, why?

↑ implosion wrote:
alternatively you can call that a scumslip and i'll just laugh at you.

Oh, cast it from thy sieve-like books of comprehension, sir, you're out of your element

↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote:implosion why are you acting as Safety's drawbridge?

Whenever an argumentative knight comes galloping towards Safety's castle you're all like

"raise the bridge!"

and Safety can cower safely in his self-constructed ivory tower.

But really, why?

Because when people give bad attacks on people that I think are town, I defend them.

I can give you meta of me doing this (as town, and probably as scum but I can't think of any specific games) if you want.

Beli wrote:Oh, cast it from thy sieve-like books of comprehension, sir, you're out of your element

@Apozzle: Let's have a case against me. Do your best.

Really, I'd be fine with pretty much anything from apozzle right now >_>

Scum baiting Apozzle to give out his reads so they can sheep a conf-town.

Don't you tell them what you think Apozzle!

Not until towards days end at least.

lmfao popc you're asking the clear NOT to contribute. That's completely rdiiculous.

First off, nowhere has anyone indicated that they're going to sheep apozzle.

Second off, if anyone did, then it would obviously be scummy.

Third off, you could, you know, not be a dick about it and *ask*, popc. You could *ASK* me if i plan to sheep apozzle. As a matter of fact, I don't. I plan to read his opinions as a valuable source of town-motivated information and take them into account in my wholistic evaluation of this game.

Odds are, they won't change my opinions unless he gives damn good arguments for why my townreads are scum or why my scumreads are town.

If you want to find the arguments, you'll find them alright.

Apozzle is pretty articulate, so his words will be like agreeable argument candy to you.

↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote:Scum baiting Apozzle to give out his reads so they can sheep a conf-town.

Oh do fuck off, I'm baiting conftown to make a case on me to see if he *can*

you realize that everyone (barring NS and maybe one or two others, but almost everyone at least) has already given plenty of stances - at this point apozzle giving his own stances is perfectly acceptable, EVEN by your "he should wait until near the end of the day" reasoning.

Like, if apozzle doesn't give stances until shortly before the end of the day, he may as well not exist. We have a clear. We should take advantage of the information that having a clear gives us. I'm trying to think of a good analogy but failing.

also, yeah, did you even fucking read beli's post? He's asking apozzle to make a case on *HIM*. lol, i guess beli's totally gonna sheep that case that he's asking apozzle to make on him~

Stuff is going to be in shorter bursts because I forgot this week existed.

Cub wrote:I'll explain why I claimed explicitly. Just not today. I thought about it carefully.

So, I guess since some bastard murdered Cub the first thing I can do is fulfil this promise from him. Not allowed to quote from the QT but it basically boils down to: 1) obvious, 2) creating inefficient but necessary kills for the scum, 3) narrowing down the PR target list.

---

Why am I supposed to be making a case against you, Beli? This seems like an interesting path for the game to take, but I had you as null yesterday. Do you think my opinion of you has changed since then for some reason?

Oh, you want to see if I . Why would that be? Because you need the confirmed town to fail to do so in order to lend you credibility? I think you should try to appear town on the basis of your actions instead. But maybe that is pretty hard for you in this game... for some reason?

↑ implosion wrote:also, yeah, did you even fucking read beli's post? He's asking apozzle to make a case on *HIM*. lol, i guess beli's totally gonna sheep that case that he's asking apozzle to make on him~

How is that not scummy of him?

edit: Oh yeah, what apozzle said.

↑ Apozzle wrote:
Oh, you want to see if I

can

. Why would that be? Because you need the confirmed town to fail to do so in order to lend you credibility?

3 reasons. Let's see if you can figure out what they are.

popc wrote:How is that not scummy of him?

I'm not saying it's not scummy of him.

I'm saying you were preemptively criticizing him for sheeping apozzle when he was asking apozzle to make a case on him.

Looking back, i may have misinterpreted 634 to be referring to both 633 an 632 (rather than just 633). If so, then apologies.

The way I see it, I only need the one reason that I already provided.

The way I see it, I am not the one on trial here. In fact, I am the one that is the least on trial here! So, I will do the question asking. You can do the question answering.



Man up or get lynched. You can start by providing your mystery reasons.

↑ Belisarius wrote:

↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote:Scum baiting Apozzle to give out his reads so they can sheep a conf-town.

Oh do fuck off, I'm baiting conftown to make a case on me to see if he *can*

What does town (which I believe you would answer if I asked you your alignment) benefit would having conf town making a case on the other person you would say is conf town?

↑ Human Destroyer wrote:implosion and SafetyDance are scum together. I can almost guarantee it.

and what happens if either of them flip town (and since my reads currently point that way, I'd like to see this guaratee have more behind it than apparent parroting.)

But then I also think you're faking your hunt.

VOTE: Human Destroyer

Cheery, in #645 you believe Belisarius to be town, yet puzzle over his request at the same time. How does this work? What's he doing then, being an anti-town town player? Since begging (baiting?) Apozzle to say something about him is a big waste of time, what's the strongest tell you have currently to afford him townie status?

So HD is faking his hunt huh? He's wasting everyone's time with a bunch of malarky? Well, you're just as guilty of wasting time if you don't explain why you think such a thing. Otherwise the vote is pure WIFOM and suss as hell. Looks more like you're picking and choosing suspects to vote for after first consulting a list of buddies to avoid voting for. Otherwise why are you questioning the logic of one player (Belisarius) sans vote and calling it a determined town read, and then voting another (HD) sans evidence and giving a fluffy scum read?

↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote:Cheery, in #645 you believe Belisarius to be town, yet puzzle over his request at the same time. How does this work? What's he doing then, being an anti-town town player? Since begging (baiting?) Apozzle to say something about him is a big waste of time, what's the strongest tell you have currently to afford him townie status?

So HD is faking his hunt huh? He's wasting everyone's time with a bunch of malarky? Well, you're just as guilty of wasting time if you don't explain why you think such a thing. Otherwise the vote is pure WIFOM and suss as hell. Looks more like you're picking and choosing suspects to vote for after first consulting a list of buddies to avoid voting for. Otherwise why are you questioning the logic of one player (Belisarius) sans vote and calling it a determined town read, and then voting another (HD) sans evidence and giving a fluffy scum read?

I'm not convinced Beli is town with it, if I'm phrasing stuff that way, I'm just attempting to follow where the thought process of the person is going, because I don't understand it.
If you rather, I can just point out what's wrong with it , but I like doing that in question format.

My vote has gone to HD, as I think he is doing the slow page by page stuff so that he can escape the current conversations which I suspect probably involve his partner(s).
His scumread (as I believe safety at least already mentioned) on implosion is just finding evidence to reach the read instead of the other way, I feel that is a scum behaviour when paired with ignoring most of the current content, you'll note he hasn't actually responsed to any of implosions posts today.

The difference is there is possibilty a hidden town purpose behind Beli's asking apozzle to make a case (which is why I'm asking about it) vs HD's fake hunt.
If I don't get an acceptable answer, my vote will probably move to Beli. (and no I don't know what a acceptable answer is yet, it will just have to wait and see.

↑ Apozzle wrote:
You can start by providing your mystery reasons.

Nope. Too soon for that.

↑ Cheery Dog wrote:
What does town (which I believe you would answer if I asked you your alignment) benefit would having conf town making a case on the other person you would say is conf town?

I would say someone is confTown when knows their alignment, so no, I would not claim confTown status at this point.