Mini 418: Blue Jam. Game over (Mafia win)


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:08 am

Post by Simenon »

Ecto was a vigilante, which means someone deliberately wasn't killing him night five/six. This is not consistent with TCS' previous behavior.

Furthermore, posts 530, 570 and 573 clearly expresses Ecto's dubiousness over shanba's claim. He only switched positions onto ThAd when Admiral didn't give a defense.

Shanba really wouldn't have to get rid of Ecto night five (or six, whatever it was called) because he was kill immune. Plus, the godfather did not have kill immunity.

I have also considered the balance of the setup. It makes more sense for Doctor Quack Doctor role blocker cop tracker/miller vigilante vs. godfather, mafia watcher and mafia kill immune. All of the mafia roles can screw the town power roels up some how. Mafia message sender? Doesn't really work as well.

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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:13 am

Post by Simenon »

Full Setup with Shanba as scum:
Doctor
Quack Doctor
Role Blocker
Cop
Tracker/Miller
Vigilante
Message Sender
Townie with restriction
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Godfather w/o kill immunity
Mafia Kill- immune

Full Setup with TCS as scum:
Doctor
Quack Doctor
Role Blocker
Cop
Tracker/Miller
Vigilante
Townie with restriction
Kill-immue townie
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Godfather w/o kill immunity
Mafia Message sender

Full setup with Simenon as scum:
Doctor
Quack Doctor
Role Blocker
Cop
Tracker/Miller
Vigilante
Message Sender
Kill-immune TOwnie
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Godfather w/o kill immunity
Mafia Goon

I think the first setup is most likely.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:15 am

Post by Simenon »

I left out the "name-checker", but I really don't think it matters. Namechecker/Kill immune townie doesn't really sound like a pod role.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:18 am

Post by Simenon »

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 976#634976

This is the post, however, that really screws the "shanba scum" theory up. I've never known shanba to be an avid busser, so him attacking both his scumbuddies is a pretty ballsy move.

However, Shanba could have realized that the vig/sk was going to bump off SC anyway, as he had already performed a kill, and reasoned to bus SC while he still could.

:/
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:22 am

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Also, you left out the option that Ecto chose to no-kill for some reason (if he did, it was probably because he believed I was scum.)
If this is true, it probably mean you're scum.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:33 am

Post by Shanba »

The namechecking part of my role is proven, as is the unnkability, so I don't get what you're trying to prove by saying it's not a podlike ability, as it is already shown to be in a pod game. Also, your talk about Ecto suspecting is pure appeal to authority: just because he is now confirmed town doesn't mean his opinions were right. Considering your defence of against his accusations your backtracking here feels very off, especially as I made it clear I wouldn't consider voting for TCS (meaning his lynch was going to be impossible for you to secure.)

Also, your point about me not needing to get rid of Ecto is wrong. He was attacking me strongly, as noted by you, and an Ecto kill wouldn't have raised any eyebrows if it went under the radar. In fact, I would point out that with ThAd alive noone would be likely to kill for fear of being outed by the watcher. The nokill after his lynch might possibly be a point in favour of your theory, but no matter who was scum it would have benefitted them to keep him alive as he was pretty sure I was scum.

Finally, as for setup balance if you are scum I am very doubtful that you are just a mafia goon. In fact, you not being vanilla would explain why you jumped to the odd conclusion that something else stopped the Ecto kill, which is an unintuitive explanation.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:39 am

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Shanba wrote:The namechecking part of my role is proven, as is the unnkability, so I don't get what you're trying to prove by saying it's not a podlike ability, as it is already shown to be in a pod game.
The combination of roles as a town role is unlike pod.
Also, your talk about Ecto suspecting is pure appeal to authority: just because he is now confirmed town doesn't mean his opinions were right. Considering your defence of against his accusations your backtracking here feels very off, especially as I made it clear I wouldn't consider voting for TCS (meaning his lynch was going to be impossible for you to secure.)
So when a dead town player makes an analysis pointing it out is appeal to authority?
That doesn't sound right.
Also, your point about me not needing to get rid of Ecto is wrong. He was attacking me strongly, as noted by you, and an Ecto kill wouldn't have raised any eyebrows if it went under the radar. In fact, I would point out that with ThAd alive noone would be likely to kill for fear of being outed by the watcher. The nokill after his lynch might possibly be a point in favour of your theory, but no matter who was scum it would have benefitted them to keep him alive as he was pretty sure I was scum.
Way to miss the point. Ecto was not a dire threat as he would have been to either TCS or me.
Finally, as for setup balance if you are scum I am very doubtful that you are just a mafia goon. In fact, you not being vanilla would explain why you jumped to the odd conclusion that something else stopped the Ecto kill, which is an unintuitive explanation.
That wasn't my conclusion. It was one of the options I was considering.

Two ukillables that aren't godfathers in a setup? Even if they are on different sides, that isn't really viable.

I'm not done posting, btw.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:43 am

Post by Simenon »

Dean Lynch:
CEScum (m), Ectomancer(t), creampuffeater(t), FaerieLord(t), bird1111(t), Dagger(t) TCS(?)

CPE lynch:

Thad (t), Ecto (t), CEScum(m), TCS(?), Shanba(?), Thad(t)

CEScum lynch:

Shanba (?), Simenon(? or t, depending on perspective), Ecto(t), TCS(?)

TCS is usually on every wagon in the game. The notable thing here is that he was the hammer for two out of three lynches.

I think it's worth pointing out I was off the cpe lynch.

Also, Shanba, how do you explain the unbalance in the setups if you are supposed to be unkillable? Even if I had an extra ability and was scum, protown unkillable is super unbalanced unless i had a very good ability. And if I did, why hasn't my super awesome ability apparent?

Don't quote that out of context plz.
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:49 am

Post by Simenon »

TCS wrote: I'm going to Confirm Vote: Cogito Ergo Scum for reasons I've already stated. I'm going to FoS: StallingChamp's eventual replacement and Fos: CPE because I think they're the other two scum by process of elimination.
ding ding ding ding ding! We have a winnar!


This post comes
before
405. So that shoots the "shanba too bussy to be scum" theory.

I am about 75% on shanba being scum at the moment.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:49 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
Shanba wrote:The namechecking part of my role is proven, as is the unnkability, so I don't get what you're trying to prove by saying it's not a podlike ability, as it is already shown to be in a pod game.
The combination of roles as a town role is unlike pod.
But is it like him for scum? Otherwise your point is meaningless.
Also, your talk about Ecto suspecting is pure appeal to authority: just because he is now confirmed town doesn't mean his opinions were right. Considering your defence of against his accusations your backtracking here feels very off, especially as I made it clear I wouldn't consider voting for TCS (meaning his lynch was going to be impossible for you to secure.)
So when a dead town player makes an analysis pointing it out is appeal to authority?
That doesn't sound right.
Yes, it is. You clearly didn't think it had any weight at the time, as you defended me, but suddenly now he's dead and confirmed town it does. You are using his confirmed townness as a point against me, which is an appeal to authority
Also, your point about me not needing to get rid of Ecto is wrong. He was attacking me strongly, as noted by you, and an Ecto kill wouldn't have raised any eyebrows if it went under the radar. In fact, I would point out that with ThAd alive noone would be likely to kill for fear of being outed by the watcher. The nokill after his lynch might possibly be a point in favour of your theory, but no matter who was scum it would have benefitted them to keep him alive as he was pretty sure I was scum.
Way to miss the point. Ecto was not a dire threat as he would have been to either TCS or me.
Well no. But either of you would have benefited from killing him too, which means your point is weak at best.
Finally, as for setup balance if you are scum I am very doubtful that you are just a mafia goon. In fact, you not being vanilla would explain why you jumped to the odd conclusion that something else stopped the Ecto kill, which is an unintuitive explanation.
That wasn't my conclusion. It was one of the options I was considering.

Two ukillables that aren't godfathers in a setup? Even if they are on different sides, that isn't really viable.

I'm not done posting, btw.
I never said you were unnkable. I don't know what role you have. It could be you have some insane role where you remove the roles of any player targeting you (though that's impossible), it could be that you're a straight roleblocker who reckoned Ecto was going to kill you and decided to block him (though that's highly unlikely, given what has happenned in the game so far). The point is, you could have any role, not just unnkability.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:52 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
TCS wrote: I'm going to Confirm Vote: Cogito Ergo Scum for reasons I've already stated. I'm going to FoS: StallingChamp's eventual replacement and Fos: CPE because I think they're the other two scum by process of elimination.
ding ding ding ding ding! We have a winnar!


This post comes
before
405. So that shoots the "shanba too bussy to be scum" theory.

I am about 75% on shanba being scum at the moment.
Meh. That theory is crap anyway. I was already fairly certain that TCS was town anyway, so it does nothing for me.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:57 am

Post by Simenon »

Shanba's Vote History:
Vote Admiral
Unvote
Vote Simenon
Unvote
Vote CEScum
Unvote Vote CPE
Unvote Vote Stallingchamp
Unvote
Vote CPE
Vote CEScum
Vote Admiral

TCS' Voting History:
Vote FL
Unvote Vote DW
Unvote Vote CPE
Vote Simenon
Unvote
Vote Cescum
Unvote Vote CPE
Hammah CEScum
Vote Ecto
Unvote

I actually like TCS' better.
TCS' post 393 is also pretty damning.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:01 am

Post by Simenon »

Shanba wrote: But is it like him for scum? Otherwise your point is meaningless.
It's not unlike him as far as I know.
Yes, it is. You clearly didn't think it had any weight at the time, as you defended me, but suddenly now he's dead and confirmed town it does. You are using his confirmed townness as a point against me, which is an appeal to authority
Mafia players analyze dead people's posts all the time. I'm sure you have done it many a time before. It's not illogical.
It didn't have any weight at the time because we thought he was the obv sk, and the sk does anything he can to survive.
Well no. But either of you would have benefited from killing him too, which means your point is weak at best.
No, no, no. My point is that either one of us would have no benefit leaving him alive, while if you had something else in mind, it wouldn't be terrible to leave ecto alive.
I never said you were unnkable. I don't know what role you have. It could be you have some insane role where you remove the roles of any player targeting you (though that's impossible), it could be that you're a straight roleblocker who reckoned Ecto was going to kill you and decided to block him (though that's highly unlikely, given what has happenned in the game so far). The point is, you could have any role, not just unnkability.
What role do you have in mind that would make this balanced at all?

In my mind, unkillable fits pretty well.

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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:02 am

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Shanba wrote: Meh. That theory is crap anyway. I was already fairly certain that TCS was town anyway, so it does nothing for me.
Shanba- these theories are good for your survival. In the future, role with it, don't discredit it.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:14 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote: TCS' post 393 is also pretty damning.
Did you see my reply? As far as I knew at that point, it was a fairly straightforward game. I really wasn't expecting a mafia watcher, and his roleclaim was confirmed.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:22 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
Shanba wrote: But is it like him for scum? Otherwise your point is meaningless.
It's not unlike him as far as I know.
Yes, it is. You clearly didn't think it had any weight at the time, as you defended me, but suddenly now he's dead and confirmed town it does. You are using his confirmed townness as a point against me, which is an appeal to authority
Mafia players analyze dead people's posts all the time. I'm sure you have done it many a time before. It's not illogical.
It didn't have any weight at the time because we thought he was the obv sk, and the sk does anything he can to survive.
So it cmes down to you didn't listen to him because you thought he was the SK. That's craplogic, pure and simple. His arguments are the same whether he comes up town or scum, and their validity remains the same. If a player is any good he's going to be believing what he says anyway, even if it doesn't apply in that instance
Well no. But either of you would have benefited from killing him too, which means your point is weak at best.
No, no, no. My point is that either one of us would have no benefit leaving him alive, while if you had something else in mind, it wouldn't be terrible to leave ecto alive.
I never said you were unnkable. I don't know what role you have. It could be you have some insane role where you remove the roles of any player targeting you (though that's impossible), it could be that you're a straight roleblocker who reckoned Ecto was going to kill you and decided to block him (though that's highly unlikely, given what has happenned in the game so far). The point is, you could have any role, not just unnkability.
What role do you have in mind that would make this balanced at all?

In my mind, unkillable fits pretty well.
Yes, unnkillable fits, but you already demonstrated that it's unlikely, so I don't see why you would bring it up.

OK, as for a role that might fit, maybe a delayed activation roleblocker yes, it's an odd role, but not knowing what your role is it coul be just about anything.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:24 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
Shanba wrote: Meh. That theory is crap anyway. I was already fairly certain that TCS was town anyway, so it does nothing for me.
Shanba- these theories are good for your survival. In the future, role with it, don't discredit it.
[/i]
My immediate inclination when I see something that is untrue or craplogic is to attack it, but I take your point. In an endgame situation, no matter my role, anything that means I'm not lynched is probably a good thing.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:43 am

Post by Simenon »

Shanba wrote:So it cmes down to you didn't listen to him because you thought he was the SK. That's craplogic, pure and simple. His arguments are the same whether he comes up town or scum, and their validity remains the same. If a player is any good he's going to be believing what he says anyway, even if it doesn't apply in that instance
ummmmm no. sorry, his arguments don't come up the same whether he's a serial killer or a townsperson, for the simple reason that they don't have the same intention.

Calling it "craplogic" of all things doesn't make sense at all.

Yes, unnkillable fits, but you already demonstrated that it's unlikely, so I don't see why you would bring it up.

OK, as for a role that might fit, maybe a delayed activation roleblocker yes, it's an odd role, but not knowing what your role is it coul be just about anything.
Tell me how the delayed rber fits within the balance of the setup.
My immediate inclination when I see something that is untrue or craplogic is to attack it, but I take your point. In an endgame situation, no matter my role, anything that means I'm not lynched is probably a good thing.
Wow! You sure weaseled your way out of that one!

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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:44 am

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Shanba wrote:
Simenon wrote: TCS' post 393 is also pretty damning.
Did you see my reply? As far as I knew at that point, it was a fairly straightforward game. I really wasn't expecting a mafia watcher, and his roleclaim was confirmed.
Yes, and I'm not at all convinced by that defense, sorry.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:02 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
Shanba wrote:So it cmes down to you didn't listen to him because you thought he was the SK. That's craplogic, pure and simple. His arguments are the same whether he comes up town or scum, and their validity remains the same. If a player is any good he's going to be believing what he says anyway, even if it doesn't apply in that instance
ummmmm no. sorry, his arguments don't come up the same whether he's a serial killer or a townsperson, for the simple reason that they don't have the same intention.

Calling it "craplogic" of all things doesn't make sense at all.
Um, yes it does. No sane scum would use deliberate craplogic if he thouht he was going to b caught, and certainly not when he was under the pressure Ecto was under. In which case, anything he said would have to be valid. As an SK in that situation his best move is to be hunting the last mafia before the mafia kills him. In which case you should hve been able to see that anything he sad then was as valid then as it is now.

For an example of what I'm trying to get across: Town lynches Battle Mage, he turns up town. battle Mage had been heaily attacking Simenon. Just because Battle Mage turned up town doesn't add any weight to his arguments against Simenon.

Or for another, more relevant example: town lynches Ectomancer. Ectomancer turns up SK. Ectomancer had ben heavily attacking Shanba. remarkably, any arguments he made should still stand on their own merits, as his goal is not to incriminate himself by posting flawed logic.
Yes, unnkillable fits, but you already demonstrated that it's unlikely, so I don't see why you would bring it up.

OK, as for a role that might fit, maybe a delayed activation roleblocker yes, it's an odd role, but not knowing what your role is it coul be just about anything.
Tell me how the delayed rber fits within the balance of the setup.
[/quote]
Delayed roleblocker is in some ways more dangerous to town than an actual full out roleblocker, as it adds an extra element to the situation after town things it has things worked out. Also, it fits your criteria of messing with town roles.
My immediate inclination when I see something that is untrue or craplogic is to attack it, but I take your point. In an endgame situation, no matter my role, anything that means I'm not lynched is probably a good thing.
Wow! You sure weaseled your way out of that one!
WTF? You gave me advice on gameplay and I thought the advice was helpful. You are now trying to twist that into a scumtell.

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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:04 am

Post by Shanba »

Simenon wrote:
Shanba wrote:
Simenon wrote: TCS' post 393 is also pretty damning.
Did you see my reply? As far as I knew at that point, it was a fairly straightforward game. I really wasn't expecting a mafia watcher, and his roleclaim was confirmed.
Yes, and I'm not at all convinced by that defense, sorry.
Meh. if you'd seen me play as scum, you'd know I wouldn't be that sloppy defending a scumbuddy who was clearly going down. But that's WIFOM, and I'm clearly no going to convince you of that.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:20 am

Post by Simenon »

Shanba wrote: Um, yes it does. No sane scum would use deliberate craplogic if he thouht he was going to b caught, and certainly not when he was under the pressure Ecto was under. In which case, anything he said would have to be valid. As an SK in that situation his best move is to be hunting the last mafia before the mafia kills him. In which case you should hve been able to see that anything he sad then was as valid then as it is now.
Obviously, if you were town, getting a mislynch on you would benefit Ecto, or else ecto wouldn't have attacked you. So therefore, knowing Ecto is town helps us realize that he wasn't just attacking you for the hopes of a mislynch. I thought he was a unkillable sk, may I remind you, so no, he wouldn't have to worry about the mafia kill.

FFS, this is kind of obvious.
For an example of what I'm trying to get across: Town lynches Battle Mage, he turns up town. battle Mage had been heaily attacking Simenon. Just because Battle Mage turned up town doesn't add any weight to his arguments against Simenon.
Yes, yes it does.
Or for another, more relevant example: town lynches Ectomancer. Ectomancer turns up SK. Ectomancer had ben heavily attacking Shanba. remarkably, any arguments he made should still stand on their own merits, as his goal is not to incriminate himself by posting flawed logic.
"flawed logic" doesn't matter. Ecto's points weren't flawed, but if he was a serial killer: HIS POINTS DIDN'T NEED TO BE FLAWED OR NOT FLAWED. He was being assumed as the serial killer- we didn't need to listen to him then, because he didn't share our alignment and we didn't want to buy in to whatever he was plotting.
Delayed roleblocker is in some ways more dangerous to town than an actual full out roleblocker, as it adds an extra element to the situation after town things it has things worked out. Also, it fits your criteria of messing with town roles.
We are not talking about DRBER. We are talking about a scum role that possible balanced you being unkillable. Delayed rber does not.
My immediate inclination when I see something that is untrue or
WTF? You gave me advice on gameplay and I thought the advice was helpful. You are now trying to twist that into a scumtell.

...
I wasn't serious from the start.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:21 am

Post by Simenon »

For an example of what I'm trying to get across: Town lynches Battle Mage, he turns up town. battle Mage had been heaily attacking Simenon. Just because Battle Mage turned up town doesn't add any weight to his arguments against Simenon.


Yes, yes it does.

That is- we can analyze it and see if it does. It doesn't necessarily give weight to anything, but I believe it's worth analyzing. And in this case, I believe it points to you.
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The Central Scrutinizer
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:03 pm

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

Simenon, that you all of a sudden want to lynch the unnightkillable is very, very suspicious. I realize your case on Shanba is pretty good, but something just smells wrong about this push.

Assuming Simenon-scum, your obvious move at this point is to try get me to lynch Shanba, because Shanba has already expressed the belief that I am town. Assuming Shanba scum, his obvious move would be to pile on you immediately and try to convince me to go along, since I have already expressed the belief that he is town.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:05 pm

Post by Simenon »

You also have expressed the belief that Shanba is very town. How then is attacking Shanba the obvious move as scum?
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