Mini Normal 2115: Fin

[AaronFrost]

Stealing this pagetop

[Chara]

so you believe me about the memory issues, but... you don't believe me about the memory issues? it being salient because i was focused on it earlier doesn't mean anything to later. my 414 happened 7 hours before my next stream of posts (i just checked.).

and as for Looker, you had asked about her directly and asked for my thoughts. it was incredibly easy to look at the post of mine you were talking about, look at Looker's post, and recall my thoughts.

i have issues with short term memory and trouble focusing. reminders serve me well when remembering things, and for Looker this was easy. when i started posting about and to insomnia after Frost's slip, it was without checking my ISO or going back enough to be reminded of insomnia's role in the lynch. as i spoke to him it was easy enough to be reminded.

Ame, can you reply to this?

[Ame]

Ah true, I didn't think of that. Aaron lynch it is.

I still would like to hear JTBs thoughts before we end the day since he had Aaron town/Luca scum.

[Luca Blight]

what are your reads on the three players you listed, Luca?

I haven't re-evaluated anyone since the scum slip, but at a glance they all seem to have scum equity and are potentially achievable lynches.

[Ame]

Chara, I think your explanation makes sense.

[Luca Blight]

So why were you still pushing for their lynch?

[Ame]

Cause it also makes sense that it's untrue.

[Alchemist21]

Aaron is definitely the shiny object here!

I might sig this postgame

xD

@Luca, think of it this way: Aaron is an informationless flip, Chara is an informative flip. Having an informative flip increases PR odds of netting scum because of the information it provides and because it reduces the pool of candidates. Why sort Chara out in the night when we can do it now and sort someone else out during the night. Additionally, I think it's likely the scum has already identified likely PRs, so by the time we get to N2 opportunity will likely be diminished.

You are correct that Aaron provides no additional info. That means keeping him around provides no additional benefit from here on out. Posts to and from Chara can still give info and keeping them around lets us get even more info.

[Ame]

You all make good points. That was really fun discussing. I'm off!

[Looker]

I don't get the part about lynching someone other than Aaron.

Spoiler:

AaronFrost (5)

- insomnia, Luca Blight, Alchemist21, AaronFrost, Looker

Chara (3)

- Macabre, Egix96, Ame

JTheophrastus Bartholomew (2)

- profii, Chara

Luca Blight (1)

- JTheophrastus Bartholomew

Macabre (1)

- Wimpy


Not Voting (1) — EeveeLution Army

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[Egix96]

Yes you need to elaborate, because this looks like you’re just making an easy jump onto my wagon.

Ah, but then it would be too soon...

were you going to elaborate on your Alch vote today?

No.

[gobbledygook]

VC 1.6

Looker
EeveeLution Army
Wimpy
Ame
Luca Blight (1) - JTheophrastus Bartholomew
Alchemist21
Chara (3) - Macabre, Ame, Egix96
Macabre (1) - Wimpy
insomnia
JTheophrastus Bartholomew (2) - profii, Chara
profii
AaronFrost (5) - insomnia, Luca Blight, Alchemist21, AaronFrost, Looker [L-2]
Egix96

Not Voting

(1) — EeveeLution Army

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-01-24 16:00:00)[/color]

[insomnia]

I still feel safe with alch, he's not towning it up.

i have some experience with Alch, but not enough to know what to expect from him.

what do you think of the timing of his vote on Frost?

I don't care about timing as much as I do about the reasoning of the vote.

Right now I'm trying to evaluate the legitimacy of the slip. I think they'd use that if the team was exactly Aaron - profii - alchemist because they got all the heat on day one, and it would only be normal to make some play like that in order to clear people.

I think Alch saying that profii is cleared if aaron is scum is still pretty vague and weird, I barely remember them having any interactions at all. Maybe he can expound on that and give some reasons for that conclusion.

[insomnia]

It's mind boggling how someone can slip. It would presume that their scum mate was posting in the thread and he saw their picture and thought it was the scum PT.

Like, I imagine you see some posts first when you press on the thread, you don't just post without checking where you're posting as scum. Especially with Aaron being self-conscious about it all, it seems weird he wouldn't double check.

And also, look at the message he sends..."I think I'm getting lynched here, I'm gonna try not to spew anyone"

I mean, I guess for a self-conscious person is acceptable, but like...Did he

really

think he was getting lynched there?

I find it weird he had that thought the second time and not the first time where people straight up bandwagonned him after my read on him. The spew process already began really early. That scum slip implies he felt safe before, so why feel scared now, especially after not receiving any additional votes?

Curios.

[insomnia]

Otoh, I don't think my mental map of how a wolf would react after the premeditated slip is the same as how Aaron approached it.

It feels as if he actually is taking his time with openly lol-catting, probably because he never experienced it and is genuinely wanting to die at this point.

So, I don't think it was a planned slip like Ame thinks it was.

If it was meant to clear someone, I don't think Aaron would've lolcatted consistently. I think he would've done so for the time he was sitting at his PC and then never come back, because he achieved what he wanted. There's no need to continue with the shtick.

If that aspect was planned as well, then their scum partners are good. Like, real good.

[insomnia]

Doc should be on Ame by the way.

[Alchemist21]

I think Alch saying that profii is cleared if aaron is scum is still pretty vague and weird, I barely remember them having any interactions at all. Maybe he can expound on that and give some reasons for that conclusion.

I retracted that because I realized I was wrong about some of Aaron’s posts.

[Alchemist21]

It's mind boggling how someone can slip. It would presume that their scum mate was posting in the thread and he saw their picture and thought it was the scum PT.

The way I think it most likely happened is he had both the game thread and scum PT open on mobile and was zoomed in on the reply box and for whatever reason got mixed up about which tab he was looking at. I can’t really see any benefit to doing it as scum. Even if you think the other scum are me and Profii why would this be the way to go? A slip makes him the obvious lynch and takes away any potential Towncred from bussing. It just makes more sense to me that this was a legit mistake rather than some kind of master plan.

[insomnia]

Yeah, that's the conclusion I came to.

[insomnia]

alch, who's your top scum read and why?

[Alchemist21]

I’d say Chara. Memory issues or not, it still feels like she was trying to doubtcast when she said her Townread on you was eroding. From your conversation with her I can see Town Chara doing it but I can’t shake the feeling that it was intentional.

If not Chara then Eeveelution. He looks like lurkscum because he’s occasionally popping in and giving small inputs that don’t really add anything or show his stances on others.

[Chara]

i could agree on Eeveelution.

problem being i have the strangest deja vu involving a previous game with Eeveelution where i scumread them for that exact behaviour and was fairly confident about it. and they were town.

but i have no idea of the game nor a consistent meta for them. ignoring that i also find it lurkscum-ish.

about slipping: private topics have a different skin to public threads, at least on mafsilver. but i believe every skin does that. still, slips happen enough (that i've seen) that i don't think it's enough to say it couldn't happen. more often between private topics, i think?
but i can't think of a good reason to do that instead of bussing, either.

[Ame]

JTB and egix are the last scum. GG!

[Ame]

Regarding Al, mainly @somni

While 153 is suspicious, I think it just has to do with the fact that Aaron is scum rather than it having to do with Al being his mate. Aaron has made points against you and profii in a similar vein. I don't think it's a statement he'd avoid making of a town member. Reading through Aaron and Alch's interactions, I don't think they are buddies. Aaron wouldn't have felt secure attacking your 56-57 for going after his buddy. You also mentioned that Al didn't address Aaron's 153, but I do think he actually picked up on the weirdness surrounding it because of the questions asked here and here. Al's explanation for his vote is consistent with his train of thought, and I don't think it is bussing because I asked Aaron about his town read of Alch a few posts after this, and he stuck with and further expanded on his town read. If they were in bus mode, this would have been the time for Aaron to have a change of heart.

Regarding Chara: all of the points I brought up are circumstantial and there's no solid evidence to suggest they're scum. Chara's tone has also been solidly towny throughout the game. Mac made a great point against Chara, but I also think it's circumstantial (based on profii scum).

Regarding profii: his interaction wiith Aaron doesn't come off to me as scum-scum. Particularly, their interaction regarding Aaron and RVS in iso 25 - 27. I'm not sure how to articulate it, but the way profii discusses Aaron comes off as someone ignorant of his alignment, particular the phrases "but like his answer was quite... generic?" and "Just figured I'd ask, nothing ventured nothing gained." The latter indicating that he wasn't looking for interaction points with Aaron. If he was, he would have just left it as is without this comment so anyone reviewing their interaction could see that he had some initial doubts about Aaron. This line completely voids that. The former line, in the context of the rest of the post, indicates that he wasn't really paying attention to his interaction with Aaron. It was just an offhand thing, not a scum motivated buddy callout.... Now, let's contrast this to Aaron's interactions with Egix and JTB.

JTB and Egix

Both of their play, along with Aaron's, is riddled with scum seeking interaction with each other. This can best be seen while reading through the thread in normal mode (non-iso) as the randomness of their engagements can better be seen against the context of the thread. However, I'll quote them here:

People seem to have reads on Profii already. I don't like how Egix96 implied a town read on profii in post 68 and threw shade at those voting him. I think there's a strong chance that if one of profii and Egix96 flip scum, the other one will too

What are your thoughts on profii right now?

I know you said you're not a fan of Day 1 (most people aren't) but it'd still be nice if you participated a little more and let us know what you're thinking.

If you look at the rest of Aaron's play, he never asks random questions like these. His question here was made merely for the sake of having an interaction with JTB.

Egix does the same thing with Aaron here:

I kind of agree with you on profii. Last game I played with him he felt pretty obviously town. Granted I was scum in that game so I didn't exactly have to read him too much but I could never push him either. Not quite getting the same vibes from him here as he's been mostly under the radar.

Imagine for a moment that profii is someone you've never played a game with before - what do you think of him now?

Like Aaron (and as opposed to someone like Looker), Egix also has shown a disinclination toward inquiring about reads.

They continue the farce when Aaron asks about profii town reads:

One thing I find interesting about this wagon is that no one has really jumped to profii's defense. Most people seem to have him as a scumread and/or are voting him right now. Is anybody townreading him right now? If so why?

I am, and it's for something similar to what you've pointed out here - I think that he's been under too much suspicion for too little reasoning (or, to put it another way, I see people voting him but I don't find the reasoning to be all that compelling). I would be very surprised if he flipped red.

Are you townreading him regardless of the fact that his push has had no resistance? Like what are your thoughts on his posting right now?

Also notice the trend in topic here. All three of them have a hard one for profii. Why? Because it was their target for the day. It's why Aaron danced around it so much. Their plan was to ML profii and have Egix rake in some town points. You can see the beginnings of this here with JTB's post:

People seem to have reads on Profii already. I don't like how Egix96 implied a town read on profii in post 68 and threw shade at those voting him. I think there's a strong chance that if one of profii and Egix96 flip scum, the other one will too

I'm not sure what the term used for this is, but on my site we used to call it 'webbing,' wherein a player artificially ties a town member to their scum mate so that if the scum mate flips, the town member will look bad, and if the town member flips, the partner can then abandon the scum read on their mate. In this case, JTB was pushing for profii-Egix so that he could scumread his mate without actually having to use any evidence other than his tie with profii.

More evidence to this is the fact that Egix's profii read was entirely unwarranted:
Not only because it was supposedly only based on the fact that there was no opposition to profii's wagon, but this too! General town vibes? GENERAL TOWN VIBES!?!?!?

In the game of mafia, ignorance is a virtue, and ignorant Egix is not.

Again, the goal was to rake in the town points upon a profii town flip. That's why Egix leaned into it so hard, despite there being no evidence for it.

One more point on Egix: He seems to think that Looker was target hunting for her PR or establishing a hypocop or something? Yet he brought attention to this in the most overt anti-town way possible. He attempted to make it look like he was protecting town secrets, but if he were genuinely doing so, the best thing to do would have to not say anything at all.

[Looker]

I don't know how much stock to put into D1 gamesolves.

p-edit: Impressive