Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Farkran]

Ok, i'm almost literally losing my mind to paranoia right now, but i think the possibilities are something like this - left name is CL, right name is dumpworthy cult

Bingle/kanna
Hectic/bingle
OS/bingle
BS/shos

I will wait for people who haven't posted relevantly after the claims though (kanna and shos mainly). And i will sleep over it, good night

[Farkran]

Nvm BS/shos, i misread their last post dates

[Hectic]

I don't get how you get those teams specifically tbh. Like, why is OS/Bingle there but not BS/Bingle? Similarly, why is Bingle/Kanna there, but not Hectic/Kanna?

Anyway, I've come round to Bongle probably being town here, but I still want to lynch sh0s.

[ObviousScum]

Nvm BS/shos, i misread their last post dates

what does this mean tho

[Kanna]

Ok, I’m just gonna be honest here; bullet points cause I’m tired.

>I think it’s Bingle/Farkran; Farkran is CL, Bingle is cultist
>Bingle’s “gambit” was probably to make a fake case and push whoever who bit, what he didn’t account for imo is he needed to have confidence shos is town BEFORE pulling the gambit and I’m not sure why he would be confident unless he was cult
>shos is scummy but if I’m right, Bingle tmi’d him as town
>Rn, bingle knows there’s a high chance he’s going down so he’s pushing Farkran
>notice how bingle tried to tie me to Farkran by saying if I flip scum, it’s Farkran? I’m not flipping scum so if you decide to lynch me, it’s supposed to look good for Farkran
>Farkran’s latest combos don’t make sense but I think the main takeaway is just to link me and bingle for if he flips scum (I think he will)

Furthermore, I do think I didn’t really deserve a TR early on in the game, mainly because I didn’t really do that much, so Farkran’s early TR on me felt weird, almost appeasement because I wasn’t TRing them. Farkran has been my secret SR all along.

Also now that we know Poyzin is town, that push on him by Farkran was bad imo; I still have no idea why he tunnelled him apart from inactivity and it seemed easy.

[Kanna]

P.S; if only this was Hectic/Kanna, that’s a dream team

[Kanna]

Also @Hectic, I’m sorry I broke our pact :c for the reasoning, maybe it’s paranoia but the town!you in my mind has a bigger presence (hence the less solvy) and is also more jokey (carefree)? Idk, but I’m kinda into my solve rn so l’m putting that to the side. Do you think I’m justified?

[ObviousScum]

I don't think Fark/BS is C/C

This helpful comment brought to you by Obvious Scum

[ObviousScum]

Also kerset you betrayed me i wished i could bribe you into giving me a nice ability but instead this is the very first time, in all of my mafia career, that i rolled VT. Even before joining this site, i always rolled PR, 3p or scum.

I think the last time I saw a big deal being made in OP about being VT the slot flipped scum but I was kinda thinking CL might not open exactly like this? It's kinda anti-town in a way that draws attention isn't it?

Of course I still don't know why you'd claim in your op, unless of course you're claiming

M a f i a G o o n

which is the best roleclaim of all

[Farkran]

Ok, i'm almost literally losing my mind to paranoia right now, but i think the possibilities are something like this - left name is CL, right name is dumpworthy cult

Bingle/kanna
Hectic/bingle
OS/bingle

BS/shos

I will wait for people who haven't posted relevantly after the claims though (kanna and shos mainly). And i will sleep over it, good night

I'll explain myself about these couples. I posted in a hurry because it was late, but after post 624 i realized that, now that the PRs have claimed, the non-CL cult is dead weight and therefore the CL would want to dump them to avoid being capped.

After sleeping it over though, it occurred to me that it isn't necessarily true. Right now there are two hidden cultists, and poyzin will probably added to their ranks, making it 2 hidden + 1 treestump. If we lynch the CL, we can immediately lynch the treestump, but one hidden cult remains.
If the CL dumps their current partner, they can recruit korina, but that would make it 1 hidden cultist + 2 treestumps, which is... worse. Korina will just be useless after poyzin is recruited, so there's no need to recruit him too in a hurry.

Those couples were based on the wrong premise that the CL would bus their partner - if you notice, the couples are potential CL/his highest scumread. I thought it made sense, but it really doesn't. I was tired.

[Farkran]

Ok, I’m just gonna be honest here; bullet points cause I’m tired.

1. I think it’s Bingle/Farkran; Farkran is CL, Bingle is cultist
2. Bingle’s “gambit” was probably to make a fake case and push whoever who bit, what he didn’t account for imo is he needed to have confidence shos is town BEFORE pulling the gambit and I’m not sure why he would be confident unless he was cult
3. shos is scummy but if I’m right, Bingle tmi’d him as town
4. Rn, bingle knows there’s a high chance he’s going down so he’s pushing Farkran
5. notice how bingle tried to tie me to Farkran by saying if I flip scum, it’s Farkran? I’m not flipping scum so if you decide to lynch me, it’s supposed to look good for Farkran
6. Farkran’s latest combos don’t make sense but I think the main takeaway is just to link me and bingle for if he flips scum (I think he will)

7. Furthermore, I do think I didn’t really deserve a TR early on in the game, mainly because I didn’t really do that much, so Farkran’s early TR on me felt weird, almost appeasement because I wasn’t TRing them. Farkran has been my secret SR all along.

8. Also now that we know Poyzin is town, that push on him by Farkran was bad imo; I still have no idea why he tunnelled him apart from inactivity and it seemed easy.

You are wrong on many accounts here, i'll explain every instance:

1) i'm not aligned with bingle and i'm not CL. You wouldn't be able to confirm this, but it's your first mistake in your post.
2) bingle's gambit is bad, but for reasons opposite to what you said: it was supposed to be a test for shos, which he "passed", and bingle pushed you for biting, but not me, who also bit. The gambit was badly orchestrated but the push wasn't random - it was aimed against you specifically and i have yet to know why.
3) I thought bingle/shos were disaligned because of the wrong premise i explained in the post above this, but after scratching it it's still possible that the gambit was distancing between bingle and shos. I would never see that as town TMI though.
4) He is voting you as his highest scumread. In your reasoning, he'd be voting me.
5) It doesn't work like that, because if Bingle flips first and is cult, his words will be pointless. I'm not looking good when cult said i would be looking good.
6) This could have been correct, but i retract those combos. They are nonsense after putting some thought into them.
7) Reread your ISO and compare it to mine or hectic's. I am townreading you because you act the same as i would act as town. I don't think i am wrong.
8) Poyzin was scum by the manual. Even he himself admitted to it. Now i could see you and shos townleaning him out of disagreement bias for my slot, but that's the ONLY reason you could townlean him for.

If you don't know what disagreement bias is, it would be assuming that your scumread's reads are inherently made in bad faith and therefore wrong, despite having no independent basis to say they are wrong. You should only do this once your scumread has correctly flipped scum, never before. That being said, agreement/disagreement bias is probably THE single most common mistake that mafia players do, including me.

[Farkran]

Also kerset you betrayed me i wished i could bribe you into giving me a nice ability but instead this is the very first time, in all of my mafia career, that i rolled VT. Even before joining this site, i always rolled PR, 3p or scum.

I think the last time I saw a big deal being made in OP about being VT the slot flipped scum but I was kinda thinking CL might not open exactly like this? It's kinda anti-town in a way that draws attention isn't it?

Of course I still don't know why you'd claim in your op, unless of course you're claiming

M a f i a G o o n

which is the best roleclaim of all

I don't think it was antitown anyways, as long as i am the only one doing so. By claiming VT i ensured that we wouldn't stay in RVS for years (i hate rvs) and that i could gauge people's reactions about it - cult would be forced to lynch me because i am a bad recruit for them. That's the main reason why i am scumreading shos, who is the only slot who pushed me hard so far. The others have only expressed paranoia, which is sane and more town indicative than hardpushing.

[Farkran]

So... after my morning catchup, i still think bingle and shos are the most likely to flip CL or at least cult. I am still convinced we lynch both.

VOTE: bingle this first

[Kerset]

Vote Count 1.07

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Bingle

(3): ObviousScum, Not A Korina Alt, Farkran,

Kanna

(2): shos, Bingle,

shos

(1): Hectic,

Blatant Scum

(1): Poyzin,

Poyzin

(1): Blatant Scum,

Farkran

(0):

ObviousScum

(0):

Hectic

(0):

Not A Korina Alt

(0):

Not Voting

(1): Kanna,

---

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

Poyzin: Farkran, Bingle
Bingle: Farkran
Not Voting: Farkran

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00).

Mod notes:

Not A Korina Alt has v/la on weekends
Less then 24 hours left. Lynches are COMPULSIVE, which means that after (expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00) person with the highest number of votes will be lynched, even if majority is not achieved.

[Poyzin]

I’m more sure that Blatant is a cultist than I am sure that Bingle is a CL. Bingle is my closest guess for CL, but my read there is weak. Blatant I’m much more sure is a cultist, but lynching a cultist isn’t as beneficial as lynching the CL. Better than nothing though.

Just to make sure I don’t forget during my spotty activity.

VOTE: Bingle

[Poyzin]

That’s L-1 if it wasn’t clear.

[shos]

Sup guys sorry for the inactivity of late I had a terrible two-days and now it's weekend so I can breath
catcdhing p

[shos]

Towncore:

Bingle
shos
Kori

Probs not CL because of the ease with which their wagons popped up:
Blatant
Farkran

Don't want to lynch on angleshooty replacing out of a cult game via lurking implies not cult reasons:
Obv

Poyz, Hectic, Kanna all seem like fine lynches. I'd compromise on any of the three, but atm I actually think I prefer Kanna. Sheeping me onto Shos feels like letting a high charisma player get a mislynch and the blame for said mislynch.

A farkran wagon popped up? what? where? when?
iirc I was the ONLY one pushing for a farkran lynch and it didn't succeed much. at all.

[shos]

I’m the Town Rolestopper and I was trying to not attract too much attention. That didn’t work out well.

This is a false claim, I officially CC this
VOTE: Poyzin

[shos]

Adjusting my lynchpool to {bingle > shos > BS = korina} in that specific order

VOTE: bingle

I know you are scumreading me and I am scumreading you and stuff, but have you actually *READ* the thing that bingle did trying to sort me? If you did, could you please summarize it for me, ya know, just to show? and then explain how the fuck do you think bingle is still town?

[shos]

Fuck it, with Poyzin claiming, I feel like I should claim this as well:
I'm Tracker. Poyzin goes on me tonight, and he'll obviously get culted. Setup is B3. Poyzin isn't the lynch for tomorrow.

We don't lynch Poyzin, Myself, Fark, Hectic, Kanna today. We lynch Blatant, Obvious, Bingle, Shos.
I check one of those we don't lynch.

Shouldn't have claimed. That was a scum lure.
Now that it's out,

I am a friendly neighbour

, no point in hiding anymore

[shos]

That means we lynch Poyzin who is porbably a rolecop (if CL it's amazing and autowin), and then cult will probably target one of us. either you get a track that can conf-not-CL someone, or I get to confirm myself as town for tomorrow

[shos]

Actually even if I am culted tonight I'll confirm myself
...perhaps I should start working for cult..... T_T

[shos]

ahh damnit I dunno if I should keep doing the catchup lol

[shos]

OK yes I should
because I'm not a real power so being an IC or a...reverse-IC?...(recruited cult) doesn't benefit the cultteam so they'd just recruit someone else. But Korina surely will get culted because they have power to not-CL-cop someone if they stay town.