Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-16

Have a cheesy Mid-Century Modern tune about Christmas dreaming!

Norfolk Boy1

(3): petapan, BBmolla, quiet

Lunar Martian

(3): Illwei, safebet222, unwnd

quiet

(1): Mikul

BBmolla

(1): Lunar Martian

Not Voting

(1): Norfolk Boy1

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: December 28, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-12-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

- prods paused until December 26
-

[unwnd]

Lunar is probably my vote that I'm going to stick with today. Illwei responded oddly to my pressure but I will note that I think they are at least trying. Lunar however speaks in a fashion that seems more like idle commentary about events going on around them and not necessarily what it personally means to them. Their takes on players very much follows thread-consensus as well, and they all seem very..safe to make. There's a certain amount of brevity in their words as well, like with their recent posts with them saying 'they can dig if requested' or 'waiting for norfolk for more in-depth analysis'. It errs on the side of caution that seems like careful scum who just don't want to upset anyone, so by appeasement they are willing to pay attention or respond to people when asked to; this is the majority of what Lunar has done if you ISO them.

[unwnd]

I think Lunar's flip based on what Illwei has said will also develop my read on them, as they seem to be pretty confident that Lunar is the right choice. Right now my bias tells me that Illwei isn't bussing Lunar, so I'd be likely to change my mind if Lunar flipped red. No disclosure about that, merely gut

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar is probably my vote that I'm going to stick with today. Illwei responded oddly to my pressure but I will note that I think they are at least trying. Lunar however speaks in a fashion that seems more like idle commentary about events going on around them and not necessarily what it personally means to them. Their takes on players very much follows thread-consensus as well, and they all seem very..safe to make. There's a certain amount of brevity in their words as well, like with their recent posts with them saying 'they can dig if requested' or 'waiting for norfolk for more in-depth analysis'. It errs on the side of caution that seems like careful scum who just don't want to upset anyone, so by appeasement they are willing to pay attention or respond to people when asked to; this is the majority of what Lunar has done if you ISO them.

Or maybe I'm just trying to get my head in this game that I wasn't here for the majority of?

[quiet]

Got busier with the holidays then expected. Will try to pop on tmmrw evening.

I remain feeling good about voting the turtle slot. I wanted to come back tonight and justify it more thoroughly, but I’m out of time. Beyond not loving what they posted so far, I’m also very much not excited to try and read them tmmrw with so little to look back on. Lunar has shown a lot more of themselves even in their brief posts over this period, and I feel more comfortable reading them in future days.

Also, to peta’s point, I actually discussed in this thread how I imagine a scumQuiet with ringer partner would play, and I don’t think it’s very consistent with how I’ve posted so far whatsoever. I would have asked paragraphs of questions in the mafia only thread, probably workshopping messages. It was interesting to me that Norfolk picked that of all possible reasons to sus me, as I think there are way more valid reasons. Mikul had covered them extensively.

Lunar, I want to review your posts more closely, but can you remind me exactly why you read me so scummy? Like maybe the two or three biggest reasons. I don’t exactly understand the opportunistic argument; I’ve been pretty happy with your elimination the entire game, to the best of my knowledge, with the slight fear of course that I think everyone else has also shared that the wagon on you built up so fast/has stayed so consistent. The biggest reasons I’ve been in favor of your elimination have been that I have some townreads I’m happy with, you’ve pinged me a couple times (I’ll find quotes for you tmmrw if you want them), I’ve been convinced by a few others in the thread that your flip will provide some good information, and that I was previously concerned about how little info we’d have in future days if you stuck around. None of your posts since you’ve been back have screamed town at me yet, but at the moment, I’m more scared of the turtle slot than I am of you tmmrw. That’s where I’m at.

[quiet]

my New Years resolution is going to be brevity. sorry, people, I’ll get better at this

[unwnd]

Lunar is probably my vote that I'm going to stick with today. Illwei responded oddly to my pressure but I will note that I think they are at least trying. Lunar however speaks in a fashion that seems more like idle commentary about events going on around them and not necessarily what it personally means to them. Their takes on players very much follows thread-consensus as well, and they all seem very..safe to make. There's a certain amount of brevity in their words as well, like with their recent posts with them saying 'they can dig if requested' or 'waiting for norfolk for more in-depth analysis'. It errs on the side of caution that seems like careful scum who just don't want to upset anyone, so by appeasement they are willing to pay attention or respond to people when asked to; this is the majority of what Lunar has done if you ISO them.

Or maybe I'm just trying to get my head in this game that I wasn't here for the majority of?

I don't know why you said this, given that you seem to be in-the-know enough to spat off a few townreads and make conversation about everything going around you

[Norfolk Boy1]

My Mikul read is based off of the reaction to BBmolla's 'claim'.

In response, as well as hardpushing for a full claim, Mikul said:

I don't think there is a reason to leave it alone. Because he is either fake claiming or he's cop or tracker.

This post is stating that we're in game column A as this is the only column with cop and tracker alongside a protective role.

Remembering that the role PM's were posted by the mod before the game began, we know that a protective role cannot protect themselves, so if BB was expecting to survive a nightkill, they'd need support. What Mikul has ruled out, because the set up is already known to them because Mikul is scum, is option B2.

[Norfolk Boy1]

VOTE: Mikul

[Norfolk Boy1]

In terms of Illwei, post 460 is the vote count before the '3 scum post'.

I don't get what Illwei gets from deliberately posting at that point. There were no votes on them and they were cruising. Unless this is a Goon trying to rescue a Rolecop or Roleblocker, what's the point? This reads town error to me.

[Norfolk Boy1]

With Quiet, accusing SE's of being condescending is newbscum101.

You've also then got posts that are prefaced with 'I agree with someone else". This happens with Unwnd, Peta and Illwei.

It's a genius tactic, but pushing the importance of meta in your first game is scummy to me.

And we've also the repeated pursuit of the lowest hanging fruit in Turtle. Didn't want the slot replaced, wanted it eliminated. At best, that's terrible townplay.

[petapan]

Lunar has shown a lot more of themselves even in their brief posts over this period, and I feel more comfortable reading them in future days.

where have they "shown more of themselves"? how do you expect to feel more comfortable reading them in future days?

my New Years resolution is going to be brevity. sorry, people, I’ll get better at this

someone used to have the catchphrase "conciseness is pro-town", and i tend to play with that in mind, but don't force yourself into a writing style that's uncomfortable for you. if you need a wall to get your feelings across, write a wall.

With Quiet, accusing SE's of being condescending is newbscum101.

he...did this as a joke. in rvs. is this a serious argument?

You've also then got posts that are prefaced with 'I agree with someone else". This happens with Unwnd, Peta and Illwei.

this is scummy how?

It's a genius tactic, but pushing the importance of meta in your first game is scummy to me.

...because?

[fferyllt]

BBmolla, safebet222, Mikul, and Illwei have been prodded.

[Mikul]

@norfolk

No, just no. Molla implied that he was going to live. You can break the game down from that, at least from what he was saying. If he thinks he is going to live he has to have a role where a doctor would exist. The 2 roles I stated are the 2 roles where a doctor would exist. That or he is scum and already knows what collum we are in and is willing to take claim in hopes that role is not in the game or take the 1v1.

[Mikul]

If he's being heavily scum read by a majority of people (he was). Saying he's a pr gets people off him. So if he was already the target, he had nothing to lose by risking a fake claim or taking a 1v1.

[Mikul]

I also said this in 352

It's not implying I have knowledge. It's implying he may be willing to risk a fake claim or take a 1v1 because he would know the column as scum.

[safebet222]

I'm back... I see I didn't miss a whole lot. Looks like we have competing wagons again. Lunar's responses are underwhelming and pushing BB is just bad. Norfolk's responses make no sense... He spends more time making a case for quiet but then sticks his vote on Mikul? His case for Mikul is horrible. Calls him out for TMI??? Ouch.

[safebet222]

@Mikul... I might be jumping the gun a bit but isn't time to choose a viable wagon?

[quiet]

where have they "shown more of themselves"? how do you expect to feel more comfortable reading them in future days?

TLDR: scumLunar has a much harder time playing around what they have previously said then scumNorfolk.

Spoiler:

At the time of posting, lunar had been more responsive, more emotional in their responses, had interacted with more people, had given more reads, and generally was just more present in the thread. I expect to feel more comfortable tmmrw because frankly, I feel decently comfortable now. If we go Lunar, I'm fine with lunar. I detailed last post the reasons why I've been suspicious up to now. I also think that scumLunar has a harder time digging themselves out of trouble in the future if they survive today.

Why vote norfolk over lunar?
Norfolk is starting to catch up with the post count, but unlike Lunar, where they've yet to give me town pings recently to offset my early uncertainty,

every norfolk post makes me more and more suspicious

. Two biggest factors here are who they're deciding to target and how they are doing so.

More reasons I'm unhappy with the turtle slot:

Spoiler:

What I'm not super comfortable with, and maybe this is "bad town play", is absolute silence turning into detailed, and in my opinion, completely just non-sensible reads. There is still, at this stage, less to hold Norfolk to, less information they have given that could be contradicted in future days. They also seem very comfortable writing carefully, emotionlessly. I've at least had time to get used to the rest of you ringers. I'm not excited to develop reads on a new one with nearly a week and a half less to go on. Then, comes the fact that they have yet to post anything I see as useful for town.

I was a little shocked by just how much I disagree with Norfolk's reads. I don't know if that's AI necessarily, but... I was under the impression that literally everyone thinks we can sort BB tmmrw nearly all the time. It even made sense to me after a few posts, where eventually people were just like "drop it, we can solve this tmmrw" I was also pushing for a while, a long with Mikul, for a more complete flip, and I have no extra information, just thought it was better to know/am curious. If Mikul has somehow made me townread them after scumreading me the entire game relentlessly, I'll be upset.

I think targeting me is the obvious play for both scum and town, but as town, you would be searching hard for good reasons to do so.

Spoiler:

If anything, I'm the low hanging fruit of this thread. If someone was to come in from blank, and choose the players that have pulled the most attention that aren't existing wagons, that's me. Targeting the other existing wagon would get jumped all over. So sussing me, I can understand. If it were a townplay, though, they would have actually good reasons. And I know those exist. With a little work, I'm sure you can come up with at least logical reasons to be suspicious of me. More damning still is the fact that you could reference some of Mikul's posts to find reasons. Obvioulsy I know he's wrong, but no one is sussing him for sussing me, and plenty of people think I'm at least a little scummy.

Norfolk's reads on me are terrible, and un-town. Sussing me is right play for both town and scum, but as town, you'd have good reasons for it.

Spoiler:

But Norfolk's reasons for me? Reading them made me feel crazy. I didn't even open calling unwnd condescending, I made a joke that supposed that they were, and then immediately had to defend myself from making an empathy play vs. unwnd to get into their good graces, so clearly the joke didn't work. I only used the word condescending to describe what I saw as the state of the thread at that point during RVS. I've discussed at length the idea of ringers, and never once have I called any of you condescending. It's not something I think is true. Like my goodness, I never expected that rvs joke intro to carry this far. I do agree with other people. I don't think I'm magically going to be the one that gets all the reads myself. And this:

but pushing the importance of meta in your first game is scummy to me.

I don't think I pushed the importance of the meta? In fact, I'm not sure I mentioned it once outside noticing it. I was trying to at least look into each other posting player, to see what else they had going on. The unwnd thread on town meta pops up on the first page of the mafia general discussion, with unwnd's name right there. I just thought it was interesting, and I still think it maybe informs why they chose to join this newbie game. I'll cop to being curious about the meta, though. I've asked questions about optimal play, stuff in the weeds. If anything, people in the game have called that a distraction, and that I need stay focused.

TL;DR
I wasn't looking forward to forming reads from ground zero, where I feel like I have at least a handle on Lunar, even if it is a scummy handle. I don't like any of norfolk's posts. Before them, nothing turtle said inspired confidence. I actually feel better about voting Norfolk than I did Turtle.

trying this, maybe it works better. To the brevity being pro-town thing, I think it is, but it takes experience/more skill than I have to pack lots of info into a few words. I think typing out my thoughts helps me clarify them, but maybe this way these thoughts are a little more consumable. It is also still hard for me to assess which are useful thoughts and which are just...thoughts. I'll keep playing around as the game goes on to try to find something effective.

[quiet]

Looks like we have competing wagons again

Pretty sure they're the same competing wagons from when you left tbh

[BBmolla]

We have a day to deal with claims homies we need to get moving

[petapan]

We have a day to deal with claims homies we need to get moving

should i move to lunar and you announce intent, or do you want to move and have me announce intent, because that seems like the most likely vote to go through at this point

don't really love norfolk replacing in and trying to place a vote on a vanity wagon with little time left, hadn't payed attention to the deadline

[unwnd]

It serves my own bias but yeah Lunar is a good lim, let's get a move on

[unwnd]

Also update is anyone cares:

I think I have a plan and a place to stay when the lease is up. It might be temporary (if I can't conjure another decent one on my own), but comfortable enough to where I won't stress about it. Christmas miracle and stuff like that

[fferyllt]

allez