Welp. I'm suddenly feeling a lot better about my scumhunting ability. I formally declare that I'm VT, and thus don't counterclaim Creative.
I do not have a solve, per se, but several possibilities. I have two of each, so this doesn't really help, but I'm inclined to believe Creative--his cagey play makes sense in light of his claim, though that's probably me just empathizing too much with someone else who was also hiding something. I also have sort of a policy that holds over from Among Us, where all else being equal, I believe the person who makes the accusation rather than the counter-accusation.
Possible scum pairings with Creative, with reasonable ones highlighted:
Creative/Andante: Very unlikely, given that if this is true, Andante spent all this time trying to build me up as the miselim and also attacking Creative, bu then Creative kneecaps the entire effort.
Creative/Seeds: Seeds is not scum. Pumping out this much analysis, this quickly, as off-the-cuff reactions to people's comments and exhibiting this much depth of thought...it strikes me as almost impossible for scum to fake.
Creative/Whemestar
: Idk, I could see this interaction as scripted scum theater to take the heat off Whemestar? But it would be throwing away a lot just to defend a partner. This is a weaker possibility.
Creative/Skitter
: I could see Skitter faking this reaction, but it's a hard sell to them immediately take control as the town leader of the discussion opposite Seeds. but maybe that makes sense for Skitter in isolation.
Possible scum pairings with SAMCRO, with reasonable ones highlighted:
SAMCRO/Andante
: Kneecapping issue no longer applies.
SAMCRO/Seeds: Seeds is not scum. See above.
SAMCRO/Whemestar
: It makes perfect sense to try to kill Creative and defend one's partner.
SAMCRO/Skitter: Skitter would be bussing SAMCRO pretty hard here. Not likely to me.
In post 337, CreativeName wrote:Vote me, just know when I flip town you were got by SAMCRO and his partner (I now see this as possibly Wheme or seeds)
Pooky's dying words were that SAMCRO is probably mafia and somehow seeds in their backreading has skimmed over that
I have no idea how you went from TRing my slot to retroactively saying my slot was scummy on D1 when the only new info was that now I had you towards the scummier end of the game on my reads and provided infinitely more than my predecessor.
I also do not appreciate being told that my reads are bad, regardless of whether they are wrong or not. It is obnoxious to do so - although in my experience when someone tells me my reads are bad and are obnoxious or rude they tend to be town.
your demeinor, also you seem to hard defend samcro who is in my eyes scum, griff was not active so I kinda town leaned him because he seemed vaguely solvey but i did think it was suspicious to BW on pooky just because, also it's strange that T3 died when he was mostly low activity which hints at maybe a newbie team who don't know that ia is good for town, and if it wasn't samcro why am I still alive? because mafia without me could easily kill me and pin it on samcro.
Also text walls to me are a "I am posting this for town points" usually they slow down town who have to read it all and are filled with fluff and filler text. They also usually repeat info to make people look more/less scummy/towny than they actually have been acting
I know I am town, hopefully when samcro flips scum or I flip town, town will see that the only really logical scum choice is samcro
So what happens when Sam flips town? You keep ignoring me... I'm pretty certain on skitter/you/seeds, kinda just trying to figure out the town in it, I almost feel like you and seeds right now are partners? idk. you're just ignoring me and only paying attention to seeds, a bit weird in my opinion, considering, you said you TRed seeds's slot before, and there was nothing to read my slot from
"So what happens when SAM flips town" feels super townie a statement if SAM flips red. In my head it exudes the lack of information a town has.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:10 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
To be totally honest with you Kazyan, I think I can fake having a lot of content as scum. But also being honest with you, if I was scum with SAMCRO and Creative outted him I would not still be interested in playing the game after the day at work I had LOL
I think its better to wait for a samcro replacemnet
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:12 pm
by WhemeStar
Is it even better
IDK
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:13 pm
by WhemeStar
I think everyone should have a chance to counter claim at least
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:16 pm
by skitter30
I dont think we need gthe replacement because sam ultimately will aleays get flipped but i want to get andente's formal cc
Kaz, thanks for that analysis. Which pairing do you think is most likely?
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:16 pm
by WhemeStar
whatever ffery now you dont have to find a replacement VOTE: samcro
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:17 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
In post 523, Kazyan wrote:Ok, I see that there's been some major distrust of the way I've played today. You might not want answers from me about that, but I have them.
My "north star" for this game has been the argument between Creative and SAMCRO. I saw SAMCRO go into attack mode and I saw Creative blow up in retaliation, and this whole time, I've remained completely convinced that there must be scum between the two of them due to the veracity of that attack. Therefore, my whole objective for day 2 has been to figure out which of the two are scum. I narrowed down two players that each have a ~50% chance of being Mafia, thus leaving everyone else at a 25% chance, which meant that I didn't care about anyone else--thus the lack of commentary elsewhere. You can
not
take that blowup argument into two rounds of ELo, because unless the town is seriously on top of their game and both peripheral townies take the proper side of the argument, that's just a loss condition. What you
can
do is flip one side of Creative/SAMCRO to try your better 50% odds, and then if they're not scum, vote off the other. Even if you're wrong on your first guess, the ELo you arrive at only requires the correct town deduction instead of two. To me, there was no way that flipping either Creative or SAMCRO wasn't optimal play, unless I could somehow catch the other scum in a pool of twice as many people, which I was really not ready to do. I have a 0% success rate at scumhunting so far.
(The problem with the above plan is that you have to walk up to everyone and say "hey, I'm totally prepared to hammer either of them; I don't care which, lolol". But I can't say that, or everyone turns on me and we lose a townie, which, as I just went over, means that we lose. So I decided to play with that plan, without telling anybody what the plan was. Surprise--that looks super scummy. I'm not great at peforming my towniness, because I care more about getting mafia eliminated than surviving. I gathered a lot of suspicion in Mini Normal 2187 and in Newbie 2054 for this exact problem, and it's recurring. But now I
have
to care about not getting eliminated, because see above.)
What happened next was people splitting down the middle between Creative and SAMCRO--which was bad for two reasons. First, it mant that if a miselimination was had outside of Creative and SAMCRO, there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result. Second, it meant that we didn't even have the votepower to come to a conclusions--two people were MAI.
Once I realized that Whemestar couldn't break the tie no matter who he voted, I kinda started to lose interest, tuned out the peripheral arguments, and eventually started talking about stuff like pizza toppings. No one made any progress on deciding anything, and even the deadline timer froze. I've stopped posting so much because I stopped seeing much of a point.
Thankfully, we got Seeds next. Suddenly we get a strong towncase on SAMCRO from someone who towns very towningly, and provides a new perspective.
I would like for us to come to some kind of consensus on voting. I will admit, forthright now, that I am willing to hammer SAMCRO or to keep my vote parked on Creative, so that we can get both of them eliminated and actually put the game into a winnable state. You can do with that opinion what you want. I very much do not want an elimination on Seeds, Andante, Whemestar, Kazyan, or Skitter. The heat the Seeds has been taking, in particular, is unwarranted.
"there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result" this isn't a slip right? I honestly kind of forget what FN is thats the one that confirm itself as town to people it visits right? Maybe it's not a slip then. Lol, just a thought.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:20 pm
by skitter30
That's hammer i think
Wr should have waited for andante tbh
How cheesy would it be if scum wheme is the one to set up Samcro's Vanilla town line
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:28 pm
by Kazyan
In post 632, skitter30 wrote:I dont think we need gthe replacement because sam ultimately will aleays get flipped but i want to get andente's formal cc
Kaz, thanks for that analysis. Which pairing do you think is most likely?
SAMCRO/Whemestar or Creative/Whemestar.
In post 634, six pomegranate seeds wrote:"there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result" this isn't a slip right? I honestly kind of forget what FN is thats the one that confirm itself as town to people it visits right? Maybe it's not a slip then. Lol, just a thought.
Friendly Neighbor tells someone you're town, yeah. I don't see how that's a townslip but I'm reassured if you think so lol
By the way, it's "Kazyan". Six letters, with only two As.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:29 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
I feel like Kazyan's posting pattern feels like the patter a scum would take. Spaces out posts but makes them juicy w/ content every once in a while so he's there but not too there. Clearly my style of just bumrushing people gets you on people's scum lists lol. I still can't reconcile the fact that both Kazayan and SAMCRO pushed creative on both d1 and on d2. It's very unlike scum to hard align like that in my opinion.
In post 632, skitter30 wrote:I dont think we need gthe replacement because sam ultimately will aleays get flipped but i want to get andente's formal cc
Kaz, thanks for that analysis. Which pairing do you think is most likely?
SAMCRO/Whemestar or Creative/Whemestar.
In post 634, six pomegranate seeds wrote:"there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result" this isn't a slip right? I honestly kind of forget what FN is thats the one that confirm itself as town to people it visits right? Maybe it's not a slip then. Lol, just a thought.
Friendly Neighbor tells someone you're town, yeah. I don't see how that's a townslip but I'm reassured if you think so lol
By the way, it's "Kazyan". Six letters, with only two As.
Oh am I mispelling your name? I thought that's what I was saying. I actually thought it was a scum slip lol since scum would know if there's really a tracker in the game but in retrospect it's a really dumb thought there's no way scum would slip like that. I just like typing things out to process my thoughts.
Also, there's something I want to say about you now that I'm noticing but I will withhold it for now. Want to see if it holds true later.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:36 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
I'm going to feel shocked if this flips town but it feels like if SAMCRO is mafia then scum skitter and scum andante would win the game here. I'm not totally sure what to make of andante saying he will vote with skitter, he seems town otherwise.
But my advice to you andante is never to just promise someone you will vote with them. You should never just listen to someone else blindly.
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:38 pm
by six pomegranate seeds
I forget if I asked skitter why she thought Wheme wouldn't kill T3?
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:44 pm
by fferyllt
Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:50 pm
by fferyllt
SAMCRO was a
Vanilla Townie
.
Night 2 begins now and night actions are due by Noon, Sunday, March 14 US Eastern Time. Deadline: (expired on 2021-03-14 09:00:00).
If you have a night action please send it to me via PM before the deadline.
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:00 am
by fferyllt
Andante was a
Vanilla Townie
.
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:01 am
by fferyllt
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:08 am
by skitter30
Ok so its elo so no quick votes but i think we just flip creative here
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:11 am
by CreativeName
I did mess up, tbh I was gonna tank a kill after hoping to get a scum voted out because i realised at least one scum must have been hard defending samcro unless skitter was scum with him, I was also trying to bait a mafia into counter claiming me because I knew we were 2A and was hoping a mafia would cc me to stop their buddy being eliminated, to the scum that hard defended samcro, you could have got an easy miselim on him as he was acting so scummy, but I guess you have won anyway so gg but I won't vote myself, I think the quickhammer by wheme was scummy so I'd vote him
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:13 am
by six pomegranate seeds
At least Andante wasn't a tracker lol. It does make sense they had to kill Andante there. So you guys all understand this game and know mafia hammer in ELO so don't vote anyone but creative today. I honestly think this isn't an awful spot for us to be in, there was a lot of info in d1/d2 and I personally feel like I have the solve so we can discuss it out until we feel good about the solve today.
I'm also sorry for being rash and placing my vote when we didn't need to vote just yet. I've learned my lesson, waiting through that night was really painful - that took so long and I understand why SAMCRO forgot the game was going on lol.
So I'm just going to go ahead and state my gut reads right now I thought from overnight reads that Kazyan and Andante were for certain town, that skitter is probably town, and that whemestar is exactly Creative's partner.
Bear with me I wrote a lot overnight in my brain dump.
Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:17 am
by skitter30
creative what did you mean by knowing we're in 2a?
