New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)

[Almost50]

Have you played significantly with Dunn?

OK, I'm afraid the answer must include 2 "hints" that I'm not at liberty to elaborate on:

I have one "finished" game with him as "Dunnstral".

[Zachstralkita]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHhHHHHHHHHH

Alright. Let's go ahead and compile a list of reasons right now for A50 being town:

The claim. Although I agree with Zach that the logic for it isn't great as town, it's a train of thought that i can certainly see happening. I just really don't see a ton of scum motivation for the d2 jailkeeper claim. A50 wasn't really under pressure, the result doesn't help frame anyone, it sticks his neck out there and limits the scumteam's future options for claiming, he risks drawing a counterclaim, it might have other interactions with roles in the setup making it a bad claim, it might be verifiably false by a tracker/watcher/rolecop (the former two assuming the scum didn't have two full jailkeepers), etc, etc.

-The no-kill. I protected A50 that night so if he is scum he chose to no-kill on n4. I don't see motivation for him to no-kill there: he has plenty of great kill targets (like dunnstral and Varsoon) and he'd need to whittle down the pool of town PRs quickly as he'd be screwed if, say, Dunn gets off enough shots. If Zach is scum then he's probably a limited shot strongman and so he realized "I got blocked last night, I need to use the strongman tonight" or something like that, which is a perfectly reasonable explanation for the lack of a kill.

-The willingness to be lynched. 6099 feels genuine. I just don't think he opens the day that way as scum with that much willingness to die. In 6168 he looks like he's legitimately trying to prove that there's no mafia strongman, which would seal his doom if he were scum. 6239 is also a post that's very unlikely to have been faked (I specifically highly doubt that he's lying in that post about his understanding of the strongman role). If he is being honest then I cannot imagine him committing actual suicide as scum by elucidating exactly why scum would have to be either him or me.

-Dunn's second vig on Zach failing. Why does A50 jail Zach that night if he's scum? I guess he might want to keep Zach around as a mislynch but he'd know that killing Dunn + not jailing Zach would lead to two kills on town that night which would subsequently put the game in evens, which would be very advantageous to him since he'd be able to guarantee a kill each night.

-The Vedith wagon. This is what it looks like if A50 is scum:

Titus (3): Lapsa, Varsoon, Wake88
Vedith (10): AGar, Performer, PeregrineV, Zachstralkita, beeboy, Titus, Transcend, Boem_u_dusi, shannon, Dunnstral
AGar (4):

Airick10, Almost50

, podoboq, implosion
shannon (2):

Mirhawk, Vedith

Not Voting: None

This just looks absurd. Scum parked their votes on two other wagons like this, and no one wanted to bus/distance from Vedith? I really imagine at least some scum would be voting Vedith here because he was being pretty scummy and I think scum would want to gain some cred from a likely lynch target.

.

1. How does it risk drawing a counterclaim if scum have a JK? If scum had a JK, why the fuck would town? You know why I see it happening? because it happened.

2. So I can be a strongman but A50 can't? You know... he's not a JK...

3. I've had a bunch of selfvoting shenanigans this game and tons of occasions where I did not fear death. When A50 acts like this, it is somehow convincing to you but I am doubted still? Dude, town was in autowin before I lynched a bunch of townies. Also, the post that immediately follows that is kraska voting ME, which I think proves something... and you should know what it is.

4. What exactly proves that I

was

jailed? I'm VT. It's not like I have an action. You seem to think A50 is still an RB, when this could have been faked with Airick's assistance while he was alive.

5. Scum have to bus? Obviously not, and it worked well since he's in LYLO. He bussed Airick at the end, sure. Did you see where I pointed out how bad that whole thing looked?

[implosion]

well apparently i'm still awake so

1. How does it risk drawing a counterclaim if scum have a JK? If scum had a JK, why the fuck would town? You know why I see it happening? because it happened.

a) scum having a role does not mean town doesn't have that role... I mean, you were accepting A50 as town up until today.
b) this is one of six reasons I gave why the claim doesn't make sense with a50 as scum. You're engaging with a tiny fraction of the argument I'm making.

2. So I can be a strongman but A50 can't? You know... he's not a JK...

I mean, if A50 is scum he's probably not a strongman (he could be but there's nothing that points to it). I don't understand how this is refuting or addressing my point at all, I still don't see why A50 would have no-killed on that night, for the reasons that I stated.

3. I've had a bunch of selfvoting shenanigans this game and tons of occasions where I did not fear death. When A50 acts like this, it is somehow convincing to you but I am doubted still? Dude, town was in autowin before I lynched a bunch of townies. Also, the post that immediately follows that is kraska voting ME, which I think proves something... and you should know what it is.

There are important differences between your selfvoting shenanigans and what he's done:
-You were essentially just selfvoting whenever anyone called you scum as if to say "lol fuck you." That to me doesn't sound like a genuine willingness to be lynched whereas A50 laying out the reasons for his willingness and essentially painting himself into a corner with his definition of what a strongman is does.
-You strike me as much more... not sure what the right word is, maybe risky. Based on what I glean of A50's personality based on his play this game I just don't really see him taking the "kill me then him" tact as scum, a tact that I could easily see you taking in a situation in which you view yourself as behind. Note that this point is less important than the first.

I also don't know what you're getting at with kraska voting you.

4. What exactly proves that I was jailed? I'm VT. It's not like I have an action. You seem to think A50 is still an RB, when this could have been faked with Airick's assistance while he was alive.

The fact that you lived through the night that Dunn died proves that you were jailed that night. Airick was dead at that point. Dunnstral almost certainly shot you, I think. He shot beeboy the night before and there was no scumkill with a jail on you, and he'd been airing suspicion of you all game. You'd be the natural shot that night. How else can you possibly explain his vig not going through? Do you think he shot A50 (who I protected)? Because I don't think it's feasible that he'd have shot A50 that night.

5. Scum have to bus? Obviously not, and it worked well since he's in LYLO. He bussed Airick at the end, sure. Did you see where I pointed out how bad that whole thing looked?

Again, you're not engaging with the actual points I'm making... I specifically think that scum would have wanted to have

at least someone

bussing Vedith for towncred because he replaced into a lurky slot and was acting pretty scummy and was, once he replaced in, a pretty obvious potential lynch target. You're ignoring almost all of the points I'm making.

[Zachstralkita]

well apparently i'm still awake so

1. How does it risk drawing a counterclaim if scum have a JK? If scum had a JK, why the fuck would town? You know why I see it happening? because it happened.

a) scum having a role does not mean town doesn't have that role... I mean, you were accepting A50 as town up until today.
b) this is one of six reasons I gave why the claim doesn't make sense with a50 as scum. You're engaging with a tiny fraction of the argument I'm making.

2. So I can be a strongman but A50 can't? You know... he's not a JK...

I mean, if A50 is scum he's probably not a strongman (he could be but there's nothing that points to it). I don't understand how this is refuting or addressing my point at all, I still don't see why A50 would have no-killed on that night, for the reasons that I stated.

3. I've had a bunch of selfvoting shenanigans this game and tons of occasions where I did not fear death. When A50 acts like this, it is somehow convincing to you but I am doubted still? Dude, town was in autowin before I lynched a bunch of townies. Also, the post that immediately follows that is kraska voting ME, which I think proves something... and you should know what it is.

There are important differences between your selfvoting shenanigans and what he's done:
-You were essentially just selfvoting whenever anyone called you scum as if to say "lol fuck you." That to me doesn't sound like a genuine willingness to be lynched whereas A50 laying out the reasons for his willingness and essentially painting himself into a corner with his definition of what a strongman is does.
-You strike me as much more... not sure what the right word is, maybe risky. Based on what I glean of A50's personality based on his play this game I just don't really see him taking the "kill me then him" tact as scum, a tact that I could easily see you taking in a situation in which you view yourself as behind. Note that this point is less important than the first.

I also don't know what you're getting at with kraska voting you.

4. What exactly proves that I was jailed? I'm VT. It's not like I have an action. You seem to think A50 is still an RB, when this could have been faked with Airick's assistance while he was alive.

The fact that you lived through the night that Dunn died proves that you were jailed that night. Airick was dead at that point. Dunnstral almost certainly shot you, I think. He shot beeboy the night before and there was no scumkill with a jail on you, and he'd been airing suspicion of you all game. You'd be the natural shot that night. How else can you possibly explain his vig not going through? Do you think he shot A50 (who I protected)? Because I don't think it's feasible that he'd have shot A50 that night.

5. Scum have to bus? Obviously not, and it worked well since he's in LYLO. He bussed Airick at the end, sure. Did you see where I pointed out how bad that whole thing looked?

Again, you're not engaging with the actual points I'm making... I specifically think that scum would have wanted to have

at least someone

bussing Vedith for towncred because he replaced into a lurky slot and was acting pretty scummy and was, once he replaced in, a pretty obvious potential lynch target. You're ignoring almost all of the points I'm making.

1. a) okay.... AND? my decision has reversed given the circumstances.
b)


I'm legitimately tired of arguing the obvious. YOU want to be sure and I GET THAT, but to me the answer is obvious and I'm impatient after it's been THIS long and we've got THIS far.


2.

3. Dude, I was perfectly about getting myself lynched. I could say some shit about how I'd do it right now to spite you, but let's be real. I want to win this game and my literal only obstacle is convincing you that A50 is scum. Also, the point there was after he said " kill me then kill him", NO ONE TRIED TO kill him. It's called a bluff, and it worked.

4. Why did Dunn even have to take a shot that night??

5. So as scum with one vote to hammer me I'd be intentionally obtuse interacting with you when you've expressed your disdain for that MULTIPLE times over? Even if you think so, there's no reason scum expressly HAD to bus Vedith. And there's no reason A50 was the one that had to do it. Think about it, the ENTIRE wagon of that lynch being town? Bussing probably would have been suspected off of meta anyway. They were just working against that.

[Zachstralkita]

"I started getting ideas". The "act" was scummy, alright, but my "idea" was that he was intentionally trying to draw a NK. I didn't want to lose him on N1 bc he is a very GOOD asset to town.

Ah. This makes sense. Actually also a pretty significant towntell since that's a line of thought you'd be unlikely to think of faking as scum.

REALLY? holy shit.

[Zachstralkita]

The reasons you said don't explain A50 town, they just explain why he hasn't been lynched up until now.

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 9.02

Zachstralkita (1):

Almost50

Almost50 (1):

Zachstralkita

Not Voting:

implosion

With

3

alive,

2

to lynch.

The deadline is in (expired on 2016-08-19 09:42:20).

[Almost50]

This game has gone from hyper-active at the start to dead silent now. Is there anything either of you would like to ask or discuss with me? I obviously have nothing to add myself at this time.

[Zachstralkita]

scumline ^

[implosion]

I'm sort of just waiting to have time to do a last pass or two through some things (mostly scum isos) which will be this weekend.

[Zachstralkita]

This game has gone from hyper-active at the start to dead silent now. Is there anything either of you would like to ask or discuss with me? I obviously have nothing to add myself at this time.

I'm lock scum to you. You do not say this as town. Game.

[Almost50]

scumline ^

May I sneeze? Can I cough? Am I allowed to BLINK?? Are you going to just sit there waiting for me to say just about anything to call it a scum line, scum post or scum claim?? Man I do feel for you. I truly do. Having come so close with what seemed like a perfect plan.. and if it's any consolation I for one would consider you a winner regardless.

Btw, I now know the answer to my earlier question. Going through my older notes of the game I found a remark that states "Zach, Transcend & implosion move their votes together". I believe that was in the first half of D1. That explains why Transcend, implosion and myself made it to the last 5, and why I am left alive. It's bc I was sheeping you (and you were buddying me hard) all the game, so you thought I would make a perfect ally against implosion in this situation. This also explains why Transcend was eventually killed, because he was adamant shannon was town, and was pushing against me which would have sabotaged your plan.

Tell me I'm wrong and I'll just shut up!

[Almost50]

I'm lock scum to you. You do not say this as town. Game.

Say what? I already have my vote on you. I'm asking if there's still something to say/do, and implosion responded.

You know what?/ Just call it a prodge.

[Zachstralkita]

scumline ^

May I sneeze? Can I cough? Am I allowed to BLINK?? Are you going to just sit there waiting for me to say just about anything to call it a scum line, scum post or scum claim?? Man I do feel for you. I truly do. Having come so close with what seemed like a perfect plan.. and if it's any consolation I for one would consider you a winner regardless.

Btw, I now know the answer to my earlier question. Going through my older notes of the game I found a remark that states "Zach, Transcend & implosion move their votes together". I believe that was in the first half of D1. That explains why Transcend, implosion and myself made it to the last 5, and why I am left alive. It's bc I was sheeping you (and you were buddying me hard) all the game, so you thought I would make a perfect ally against implosion in this situation. This also explains why Transcend was eventually killed, because he was adamant shannon was town, and was pushing against me which would have sabotaged your plan.

Tell me I'm wrong and I'll just shut up!

If you hadn't made a scumpost, I wouldn't have referred to it as such. But you did. So here we are.


You're wrong.


No like, you're really, really, painfully wrong. But it's okay. It's all you can do.

[implosion]

Alright.

Spoiler: Scum ISOs

Scum ISO #1: Mirhawk.

Mirhawk->a50: almost nothing. He quotes one post and agrees with Varsoon on one off-comment about finding A50 scummy. Not a ton to go off of.
Mirhawk->Zach: Early on, asks dunn why he's scum. Then calls Zach scummy, eventually calling the numbers with names scanned-in thing "outrageously fake" and voting him after catching up. In the VC before Mirhawk votes Zach, there are 3 votes on Zach (shannon, nosferatu, Titus). Between that VC and Mirhawk's vote a lot of pressure formed on Mirhawk, and he caught up. I think I can see this as either distancing or trying to get more pressure on a townie. But the distancing angle is sort of bolstered by the "scum listed a bunch of players, they'll probably list a scumbuddy more often than not" tell, because after his catchup the players he listed as scummy were Zach, Transcend, Sick, shannon, AGar.

Another thing from Mirhawk that I'm reminded of that I think points to A50-town is his claim - it seems unlikely that scum would claim even-night doc when they already have someone on their team claiming a protective role.

He later calls Zach "super town" for reasons I cannot determine at all.

Nosferatu has minimal interactions, a couple but nothing significant. Vedith talks a fair amount with Zach but never really says anything about him, and never references a50. Not much I can glean here either.

Only real thing I see in Airick->A50 is post 3222, in which he lists 6 people including A50, mirhawk and 4 town to analyze. He calls two townies townish, one townie + mirhawk + a50 null, and one townie (me) scummy. Ever so slightly evidence in favor of a50 town i think. Not extremely significant but he'd likely not want to leave both his scumbuddies at null.

For Zach: we again have the "scum lists a bunch of people, there's likely a buddy in there" tell in 2280 where he decides arbitrarily to examine the four mason claimants, all of whom but zach have flipped town. In fact the exact same thing happens again later:

Also, I'd like to highlight those who were voting Vedith before that night. AGar, Performer, PV, Zach, and I'll include beeboy because I don't think beeboy intended to start that two hour wagon. Isn't it reasonable to suggest one of these may very well be scum sitting on this wagon (not thinking it would escalate like it did)? Zach, since you were on Nos/Vedith for most of the game... I figured after the Dunn hammer that you'd be thrilled. Instead... here's your first post after the hammer.

He really drills zach with questions in that post but doesn't really commit to anything. He eventually says that he suspects zach+performer out of the list, but never really does anything on this zach suspicion for a few days until he's being run up himself.

Most of the things in here either make me feel very little overall, or lean Zach as scum. In light of that and that I really still think all of the points I brought up earlier for A50town are pretty solid, I don't think my read is going to change at this point.

VOTE: Zach

Sorry if I'm wrong (and wp to whichever one of you is scum because this really isn't as direct of a decision as it might look like from what I've been saying, I have a lot of paranoia >.>)

[Zachstralkita]

Hold this L

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 9.03

Zachstralkita (2):

Almost50, implosion

Almost50 (1):

Zachstralkita

Not Voting:

No one

With

3

alive,

2

to lynch.

The deadline is in (expired on 2016-08-19 09:42:20).

[GuyInFreezer]

Zachstralkita

,

Vanilla Townie

, was lynched Day 9.

implosion

,

Town Nurse changed to Town Doctor

, was endgamed.

Almost50

,

Mafia Goon

, survived and won.

Mafia Team consisting of Almost50, Mirhawk, Vedith, and Airick10 won the game!

[kraska77]

Fuck

[GuyInFreezer]

I should write something but what else can I say

This whole game was a complete mindfuck.

[GuyInFreezer]

Night Action/PT link here by tomorrow

Just back from work and tired.

[Varsoon]

Shrugs and hugs
I figured it was A50, but ayy, what're ya gonna do?

I think I played my role right, though.

[Dunnstral]

Airick10

,

Mafia Jailkeeper

, was lynched Day 4.

Now it is

Night 4

.

The deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-22 17:25:33).

[Transcend]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEalWO4IjC4

[implosion]

Damn.

WP a50.