Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[mastina]

Oh right, yeah. Question to all of you. Why aren’t you scum this game?

TC, tracked nowhere on a night we know had a roleblock.
Mandelbrot, confirmed not a roleblocker.
Me, have contributed to every scum death + am way out of my scum range + my fullclaim (Which Toog and Mandelbrot can vouch for).
You, for meta + contributing to every scum death.
Dwlee, for contributing to some scum death + N1 pt with Titus + being on the D2 raid which Elsa failed (may need to double check that, am mobile phoneposting at work, so working off of memory here)
Toogeloo, for contributing to every scum death + PT knowledge.
Qrow/Raven, for contributing to most scum deaths + both heads in their town meta (maybe more, too, but need to not be phoneposting).

I want to give better answers to this than what I gave, but basically:

Tomorrow Corporation has directly contributed to the death of every scum in the game, multiple times. Tomorrow Corporation was also a scum-driven counterwagon to Elsa Jay on D3. As if that wasn't enough, Tomorrow Corporation was tracked going nowhere on a night we know that the last scum remaining used a roleblock action. As if that wasn't enough,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. They are basically conftown here as a result.

Mandelbrot has contributed to the death of multiple scum, as well as having their role be confirmed to not be the roleblocker. Furthermore, their usage of their role makes them highly likely to be town. The knowledge they've gained from private topics, like N1 and N5/N6, all make it so that they are basically as cleared as cleared can get.

I am conftown from having been suspicious of all four scum for basically the entirety of the game and being THE main driver behind most of their eliminations. I was the strongest proponent of the Elsa Jay elimination AND I shut down the attempted counterwagons on Tomorrow Corporation and to a lesser extent tictac. I was the driving force behind eliminating WhemeStar and defended RealCheeks. I was THE driving force behind the Mystic Bears elimination, and again, shot down, and by proxy, shut down, counterwagon attempts (again on the likes of RealCheeks among others). And beyond all of that, my role (which Mandelbrot and Toogeloo have full access to) is hard-clearing of me as it is a role that cannot be a scum role. Plus, while my raid success has never been confirmed, the fact is that I've still contributed towards making those raids succeed, and have thus been immensely pro-town in having done so, and scum making raids fail had to deliberately sack themselves in order to do so. Plus, this is so absurdly out of my scumrange that it's impossible for me to be scum. (Heck, it's even out of my 3p range since while I play 3ps as if I am town, being 3p instead of town, I still notably have something "not there" which people can and DO pick up on when I am 3p. That nobody has is proof that I'm town.)

You, Bell, are conftown because of meta with this being outside of your scum range, you having contributed to basically every scum death, and also,

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. Bell
   
3. Elsa Jay
   
4. tictac
   
5. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Every name on here is basically highly likely to not be the scum roleblocker. You are among them and thus, highly likely to not be scum.

Dwlee is also basically cleared for this by the same logic, but beyond that, had the N1 PT with Titus and Titus lived through N1 AND N2 alive and unblocked, plus, has contributed to scum's death in a way that doesn't seem scumbuddy-indicative.

Toogeloo is basically cleared because of how Toog was the deciding factor in the Elsa Jay elimination AND the SirCakez elimination and has contributed to every scum death in a meaningful way. Beyond that, if Toogeloo were scum, the last two nights would not have played out the way that they did, as Toogeloo had access to my fullclaim and we know the scum roleblocker is left alive. As a result, from what transpired and what

didn't

transpire, I am clearing Toogeloo here.

Qrow and Raven is basically:
Nancy doesn't really bus. (She CAN, she just...in general...doesn't.)
Why's this important?
Because the slot, if scum, has done precisely that the whole game pretty much.
You can argue that Gamma's earlier posts, Nancy wouldn't veto, but this one I feel she would have objected strongly to, yet she did not. Cakez was Gamma's strongest scumread in fact and this was partially with Nancy's feedback. While Nancy doesn't list him as scum, She DOES list him as "concerning" in not being town, which while not a hard-commitment to not bussing, still shows more inclination towards bussing. While she backtracks on that here, she does so...when pointing fingers at a

different

scum, in thinking WhemeStar was suspicious. And Gamma continued his push there.

Gamma also showed early suspicion on Elsa Jay, too.

Admittedly, this isn't the strongest of starts on page one of their iso.

But it does get better.

This is Gamma voting for Cakez on D1 instead of Momrangal. While Nancy was more defending of Cakez than not, critically, she did not unvote. She did not override Gamma's vote. If she were scum, I'd expect her to have unvoted SirCakez there, but she didn't. She let the vote stay.

And while Her D2 vote on Cakez was after Romance's guilty claim, this being Nancy, I'm not even sure she

saw

the guilty claim at the time, and there's evidence she was heading towards a Cakez vote prior to the guilty claim (Romance's guilty claim was 2205 so Nancy posted 2185 before the guilty claim and 2185 is pretty unambiguously suspicious of Cakez). 2253, also post-guilty, but also showing Nancy showing reasons beyond "lol guilty" to vote there.

But that's just SirCakez.

This post also implies Elsa suspicion. As does the followthrough.

Which is made explicit in 2185, where Elsa is noted as a suspect.

Gamma also showed severe suspicion of WhemeStar.

Gamma Was an early voter of Elsa Jay here. Furthered in 2922. This would be something that Gamma would've discussed with Nancy overnight so it is likely she was aware of it and did not oppose him. 3036 and 3054 both show more of this. Here she had the chance to back off of Elsa Jay but chose not to. Tho she does go off against tictac and launch into a crusade against them (by the way, Nancy doing that? 100% her town meta and not something I feel she can replicate as scum so while it's unfortunate that it took the slot's vote off of Elsa Jay, it's further proof they are town by play even if not by vote placement), later down the road she still has Elsa Jay as a preferred elimination anyway. (Her preference towards tictac isn't scum not voting a scumbuddy, but rather, Nancy doing the OMGUS Nancy is known for and confbiasing as a consequence. Again--something I don't think she's capable of doing as scum.)

4066, 4067, and 4069 all show evidence that Nancy was sincere in wanting to yeet Elsa Jay, too. 4077 was further pushing of this as well.

And then furthering the pushing of flipped scum, we get to Nancy's push on the slot here, augmented by 5577 and culminating in the vote here.

But the real clincher is 5592, where Nancy claims Out Of Game reasons for scumreading WhemeStar--does that sound like an accusation a scumbuddy makes of their scum partner when deciding to bus them? Fuck no, this is a town Nancy through and through. And it wasn't a one-off, either. She was quite insistent on eliminating Wheme, there. In fact, she was one of the strongest pushers for Wheme being scum.

Plus, while it's not bussing of Mystic Bears, This post sequence is not scum-scum from Nancy ever.

Aside from all of these interactions, Nancy is just in her town meta through and through. I've seen her as scum quite a lot and if this is her scumplay she's leveled up it a LOT because it's hitting all the right town notes from what I'd expect to see from her when she's town.
It is

also

what I'd expect to see from Gamma Emerald as town as well.

Both slots have played about as town as they possibly could, so while not cleared mechanically, they can't get more town than this.

Pagetopping this.

[mastina]

i'm an encryptor not an enabler, sorry. i'm probably providing mafia daytalk and nothing else, which is why i have the beloved princess part of my role as a catch-22. i assumed i was enabling house but i guess i wasn't doing that.

(Btw this is basically STD admitting he fakeclaimed as he thought he was claiming a role that Mandelbrot would verify as a way to make STD live longer.)

[mastina]

it's modified

(for the record, I also don't believe this as how GIF would handle the role from my experience in GIF games--this one included!)

[mastina]

Minfilia
i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

Also also, as the owner of a multi-part role, I'm fairly certain that this is a fakeclaim and not genuine from the way STD is "paraphrasing" it. If this claim were genuine, I'd think the "paraphrase" would line up more to the formatting of my own multi-part role, but it doesn't.

[mastina]

I voiced a concern in our PT last night about why do we have 2 scum with protection abilities? I can see 1 for WIFOM, but 2 just seems weird to me, and 21 players, 1 kill a night, 5 scum, I just have some thoughts, but they're confusing.

Since STD has claimed, my theory is that H1H2's

actual

role was some form of Vig, maybe conditional but also presumably very powerful. (No way to know if scum could've used it tho given we eliminated Elsa D3.)

That'd explain why we haven't seen a Vig (the vig died already), AND why scum have anti-vig abilities.

[mastina]

So do you remember when I accused mastina of acting like she had as much power over the game as the mod and she said that, in some ways, this is true? Nothing about the outed aspects of her claim would justify such a remark.

It was half flavor (the Warrior of Light being the protagonist = they have as much control over the game world as anyone else), half my second unclaimed-publicly power (in that that power allows me to have basically unlimited power if used correctly), which you got to see me fullclaim in the PT.

The only way I really want to eliminate StD is if there is nobody else that has a PT, because that will indicate that he crafted a fake claim based around how he thought our claim operated.

Bingo. Precisely why I think he's scum fakeclaiming here.

[mastina]

acting like nobody's ever bussed scum before

If it was just bussing, this would be fair.

It's also a bunch of other things for everyone, including the WAY it was done and specific interactions.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: STD

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 7.02

Dwlee99 (1):

Qrow and Raven

Save The Dragons (3):

mastina, Toogeloo, Dwlee99

Qrow and Raven (1):

Save The Dragons

Not Voting:

Tomorrow Corporation, Bell, Mandelbrot, tictac

With

9

remaining,

5

votes to eliminate

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-30 17:35:16)

Raid

Raid Queue - Garuda

Success bonus for raid participants:

gains 1-shot for applicable roles

Queue:

1. mastina
   
2. Dwlee99
   
3. Mandelbrot
   
4. Save The Dragons
   
5. Toogeloo
   
6. Bell
   
7. tictac
   
8. Qrow and Raven

Realm Danger Level: 0

Save The Dragons is in V/LA until 10/25

[Qrow and Raven]

I voiced a concern in our PT last night about why do we have 2 scum with protection abilities? I can see 1 for WIFOM, but 2 just seems weird to me, and 21 players, 1 kill a night, 5 scum, I just have some thoughts, but they're confusing.

Since STD has claimed, my theory is that H1H2's

actual

role was some form of Vig, maybe conditional but also presumably very powerful. (No way to know if scum could've used it tho given we eliminated Elsa D3.)

That'd explain why we haven't seen a Vig (the vig died already), AND why scum have anti-vig abilities.

Could be? That would definitely account for Bears having a bp but he talked so much about Alisae the poster, which makes me think he may possibly have had some info on Alisaie the flavour, which I actually thought could have been StD, which is obviously not the case. It’s just such a shame that you weren’t able to recover that flip because then we might possibly have an inno on someone but vig does make the most sense because why does scum have a bp otherwise?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

if you're town you want me on the raid

So att I thought your janitor recovery thing was going to inno him.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Tomorrow Corporation > RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99 > tictac.

I am totally fine with this. Like if you just follow this order, game just ends in two days.
3 or 4 is also possible but it'd be more obvious if one of those two wasn't scum by that time. Also, I still nullread Dwlee really heavily and like Dwlee is by no means confirmed town from what I've read. To house I suppose.

Interesting that Bears doesn’t mention StD at all here and tictac is last.
~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

So, you're voting a player outside your solve with your scumread?

That totally makes sense.

- House

Well I am willing to vote basically any counter wagon.
Like STD is probably town but I could potentially be cleared in some way or another just through one night so I don't see why leaving that vote Flea put down there is an issue.

This reads a lot like distancing. Bears votes StD, their cw and calls them “probably town”? Also since we know Cheeky is town, I think TC is probably spewed town by that last post I quoted.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

UNVOTE:

Not really feeling Dweele, so trying to decide between tictac and StD. I still think tictac has been scummier but not opposed.

~R

[Mandelbrot]

UNVOTE:

Not really feeling Dweele, so trying to decide between tictac and StD. I still think tictac has been scummier but not opposed.

~R

Oh.

Well I'm that case,

VOTE: StD

- Contrarian

[Mandelbrot]

UNVOTE:

Not really feeling Dweele, so trying to decide between tictac and StD. I still think tictac has been scummier but not opposed.

~R

Oh.

Well in* that case,

VOTE: StD

- Contrarian

Editation

[Toogeloo]

You ever have those games where the answer is screamingly obvious, but you just sit there on the sidelines eating popcorn watching the other players stumble about?

That's me right now lol.

[tictac]

i'm annoyed at the implicit nature of the no comments.

[Mandelbrot]

You ever have those games where the answer is screamingly obvious, but you just sit there on the sidelines eating popcorn watching the other players stumble about?

That's me right now lol.

What is, "things scum say" for $1000?

- House

[Toogeloo]

You ever have those games where the answer is screamingly obvious, but you just sit there on the sidelines eating popcorn watching the other players stumble about?

That's me right now lol.

What is, "things scum say" for $1000?

- House

Wait, is this a jab at me, calling me scum, lol? Or just a general statement that scum do this all the time?

StD scum claimed, tried to fix the claim, and then went on extended hiatus. Like, 3 strikes man, it's over slam dunk them in, and wrap the game.

I think mastina is right. I think H1H2 was our vig. That makes a ton of sense.

[Mandelbrot]

You ever have those games where the answer is screamingly obvious, but you just sit there on the sidelines eating popcorn watching the other players stumble about?

That's me right now lol.

What is, "things scum say" for $1000?

- House

Wait, is this a jab at me, calling me scum, lol? Or just a general statement that scum do this all the time?

StD scum claimed, tried to fix the claim, and then went on extended hiatus. Like, 3 strikes man, it's over slam dunk them in, and wrap the game.

I think mastina is right. I think H1H2 was our vig. That makes a ton of sense.

I'm poking fun at you.

- House

[Qrow and Raven]

Minfilia

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

you know

something i didn't really want to claim unless i absolutely had to
something i really wanted to get BP for so scum wouldn't lolkill me and fuck people over
something i didn't need strongman or an extra shot for so i stayed off those raids

i'm an encryptor not an enabler, sorry. i'm probably providing mafia daytalk and nothing else, which is why i have the beloved princess part of my role as a catch-22. i assumed i was enabling house but i guess i wasn't doing that.

[Qrow and Raven]

I think StD’s at E-1. I would hammer but unless we’re all okay with raid failing, probably not a great idea.

~R

[Toogeloo]

Raid will fail anyways if the game doesn't end and it fills. Mastina is out of raid success bonuses.

I'm 98.46197% confident that eliminating StD ends the game.

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: StD

~R