Mafiascum.net

I'm here and reading up (around page 208 atm but should be caught up over the course of the day).

I'm getting cold feet on VP and want to think super carefully about that. Is it self-doubt? Is it because I was wrong in thinking him scum? I'll hopefully be able to give a clearer idea on this in about 12 hours. I also need to work out where/how/why VP went from pushing fire as scum to trying to townblock with fire.

In post 6324, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 6323, Frogsterking wrote:I thought of a detail that you missed about the game you played with me which could have lead to a TvT.

Go on

This was from the scum PT of the game I played with you, VP:

In [], Andres wrote:Town apathy is through the roof. So here’s the issue. I’m having a hard time seeing where the execution actually lands tonight. I think Frogsterking is the most likely mis-execution, but we have a near hard clear un Mathblade who is Scumming it up unbelievably, and a clear in S_S. You’re the Gunsmith, and the only player seriously questioning the balance of the game is Aristeia who I can clearly see is extremely strong.

Frogsterking is too fickle with their pushes so they’ll never get sufficient traction to truly push something through, but it’s becoming harder and harder to push there.

I did struggle to get "sufficient traction" in that game and after I read this from the scum PT I started consciously attempting to be less "fickle" with my pushes.

I understand you're a decade older than me and have completed a lot of forum mafia games so you're maybe not anticipating a lot of adaptation between a small number of games. However since the game you played with me VP I've completed I think four regular MS games which for me is almost double my lifetime amount of completed forum mafia games, and those aren't counting the several rapid games I played, and that's given me time to try to learn to be less "fickle" with my pushes.

In post 5107, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 5104, fireisredsir wrote:you know who the absolute best targets are to try to drive a wedge in town and sow distrust? frog and nero.

You know I called Frog scum yesterday, right? People were just too far up their own asses to listen. Maybe today, you will listen. Guess who wanted to lim Yeet? Guess who had unexplainable flops on and off Galron?

Guess who hasn't been scumhunting at all this game and was so timid with his vote D1? You getting the picture of Frog scum yet?

I don't expect you to follow me, but don't act like my reads are out of nowhere flips to assuage you. You don't even factor in my reads. You're just town by PoE primarily, so I'm done fighting with you.

In post 5986, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 5968, April Ludgate wrote:

In post 5965, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 5961, April Ludgate wrote:Having an incorrect read is not the same as a terrible read.

correct. His reads are confirm biased and poorly reasoned.

What are your bulletpoint reasonings for FrogsterScum?

-

He voted camped Yeet D1 forever until I started pushing him. This is very unusual to me because I just finished a game with Frogster where he was wild ass voting everyone in the game as town with tinfoil theories.

Here, he is timid and afraid to move his vote around.

-

The only pushes he has made all game have bene Fua/Enchant, Yeet, Galron and myself. I know I'm town. I know Yeet is town. I think it's highly likely Galron is town.

Those are the safe bets, too. Not looking good.
- His reasoning around the Galron wagon yesterday does not hold up to scrutiny. (There is a fairly in depth analysis of this in my big post opening the day, and follow up questioning of Frogster today).

My idea for a TvT is that my attempts to be less "fickle" in my pushes are interpreted by you as being "timid" and "afraid".

The TvT narrative looks something like this:

Town!VP sees uknown!Froggy voting less (which is perceived as "timid") and pushing Enchant, Yeet and trying to push down Galron. Town!VP eventually says
"Hey fuck this frog character this guy is too timid and wagons town" and then starts screaming for unknown!Froggy's head. Other players don't really tone read Froggy as timid so town!VP loses credibility by pushing this angle. Meanwhile town!Froggy sees unknown!VP pushing meta tells against him calling him "timid" while unknown!VP successfully pushes down Wu, Malcolm and tries to push down Galron. Eventually town!Froggy says
"Hey fuck this VP character this guy makes stuff up about me and wagons town" leading to a TvT deathtunnel.

In post 6325, DeasVail wrote:I also need to work out where/how/why VP went from pushing fire as scum to trying to townblock with fire.

Feel like you have played with me enough to know this is how I roll as town.

I often find heated exchanges with people helps me determine a person's alignment. I definitely act on genuine scum reads at any moment, but if I stress tests a person's approach to the game and they look townie out of it, that makes me feel much better about an alignment I was unsure about prior to that.

In post 6327, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 6325, DeasVail wrote:I also need to work out where/how/why VP went from pushing fire as scum to trying to townblock with fire.

Feel like you have played with me enough to know this is how I roll as town.

I often find heated exchanges with people helps me determine a person's alignment. I definitely act on genuine scum reads at any moment, but if I stress tests a person's approach to the game and they look townie out of it, that makes me feel much better about an alignment I was unsure about prior to that.

I think I have played with you once?

Also this post would imply you were acting much more confident in your fire scumread than you actually were?

In post 6326, Frogsterking wrote:while unknown!VP successfully pushes down Wu, Malcolm and tries to push down Galron. Eventually town!Froggy says
"Hey fuck this VP character this guy makes stuff up about me and wagons town" leading to a TvT deathtunnel.

This is not accurate though?

You were scum reading me before Malcom even flipped, and I was very far from pushing galron. My vote went there briefly as a potential avenue, but then I lobbied to save galron.

I'm not sure the sequence of events you're describing is wholly accurate there.

Now, to your bigger point about adaptation: ok, I can give you some benefit of the doubt that your playstyle is malleable so early in your career. I am curious if you think this us TvT, do you think scum have been pushing me this game? And who do you think is a likely scum candidate in the hood?

In post 6328, DeasVail wrote:

In post 6327, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 6325, DeasVail wrote:I also need to work out where/how/why VP went from pushing fire as scum to trying to townblock with fire.

Feel like you have played with me enough to know this is how I roll as town.

I often find heated exchanges with people helps me determine a person's alignment. I definitely act on genuine scum reads at any moment, but if I stress tests a person's approach to the game and they look townie out of it, that makes me feel much better about an alignment I was unsure about prior to that.

I think I have played with you once?

Also this post would imply you were acting much more confident in your fire scumread than you actually were?

I thought we had a couple games in recent years? But I have a terrible memory for that stuff so I could be wrong.

And yes, I will certainly do some pushes with more gusto than I have certainty because getting reactions out of folks doesn't work as well if it doesn't feel like real pressure to the person I'm poking. Most times in mafia, I'm pretty wrong early game, so test and evaluate works well for me to sharpen reads.

All the stuff about telling me I’m being played by fire and that I’m in his pocket and acting aghast at comments that your reasoning on fire seemed exaggerated…
Well that all would have been a bit excessive, no?

*their

Apologies

In post 6331, DeasVail wrote:All the stuff about telling me I’m being played by fire and that I’m in his pocket and acting aghast at comments that your reasoning on fire seemed exaggerated…
Well that all would have been a bit excessive, no?

Not really. You were definitely sheeping fire without thinking and you two were kind of coming in to answer for each other as I was asking questions. First, that doesn't really help me engage directly with fire if you're running interference, and second, I can open up multiple battlefronts at the same time without much issue. Poking you at the same time I'm going at it with fire isn't much a losing proposition to me other than it might draw me some heat, which I don't tend to care that much about.

Is there anything I can say or do to stop this hideous wagon on VP from going through?

In post 6329, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 6326, Frogsterking wrote:while unknown!VP successfully pushes down Wu, Malcolm and tries to push down Galron. Eventually town!Froggy says
"Hey fuck this VP character this guy makes stuff up about me and wagons town" leading to a TvT deathtunnel.

This is not accurate though?

You were scum reading me before Malcom even flipped, and I was very far from pushing galron. My vote went there briefly as a potential avenue, but then I lobbied to save galron.

I'm not sure the sequence of events you're describing is wholly accurate there.

Now, to your bigger point about adaptation: ok, I can give you some benefit of the doubt that your playstyle is malleable so early in your career. I am curious if you think this us TvT, do you think scum have been pushing me this game? And who do you think is a likely scum candidate in the hood?

Yes I think there is at least one scum pushing both of us, and I think this holds true in both a TvS scenario and a TvT scenario.

My idea for the scum in a TvS scenario is that Dease was the scum on your wagon D2 and they got on early D2 to distance and stayed there and are planning to get on late today provided you're unable to turn things around. If we're TvT though then my null slots April and Dragons I FoS.

For my own wagon, both times I remember my wagon flaring up Datisi/Titus and Eyes were a part of it. I think Titus' iso looks more like a solo player who is benefiting from Frog vs VP and VP vs Nero and doesn't really want any of us to die too soon but is also more than willing to hammer anyone. My theory is that either the kills on the first mason or on yeet were stacked, and the other kill was stacked or lost through nightplay mechanics. Apparently there is something I don't understand about serial killers on this website though because Cape and Titus now have both said the killer would need to be "townside" here and I don't understand what that means.

Eyes also has jumped on my wagon both times and wasn't compliant with my questioning D1 and the only consistent element of their gameplay I can see is their underlying desire to have me killed.

As for the hood I have no idea how I'm supposed to tell between Nero and Cape who could be scum if those are my choices. Based on dayplay alone and no setup or mech spec I would conclude that the hood is all town or you and/or Galron are scum. One possibility I just thought of though for a scum in the hood is if there are multiple anonymous traitors in the setup so the scum in the hood doesn't really know what's happening and that's helping their acting. From my point of view it's most likely that you're the scum in the hood, second most likely no scum in the hood, third most likely it's anyone including Galron and the setup has multiple traitors. The reason why in the third scenario Galron is included is because I think if the scum team is mostly traitors then Galron would be more likely to be the slot to send in the night kill N1 causing a false clear from psychologist.

In post 6334, Eyes without a face wrote:Is there anything I can say or do to stop this hideous wagon on VP from going through?

well the alternative is prob nero who you also townread

and frog i would not get too attached to the idea of a serial killer. i think it's v unlikely. and i don't think it would be titus anyway if there was one

my guess is townsiding means, mafia is winning rn, and if they get too far ahead then serial killer would prob lose. so if they existed here, they would want to play on the town side of things and hunt mafia to even things up more

In post 6329, VP Baltar wrote:And who do you think is a likely scum candidate in the hood?

I guess if I had to choose one of Nero, Cape and Galron to be scum in the hood gun to head I would choose Nero on PoE because Nero seems significantly more experienced so I'd weight Galron's psuedo mech clear > Cape's town tells > Nero's town tells.

In post 6335, Frogsterking wrote:Apparently there is something I don't understand about serial killers on this website though because Cape and Titus now have both said the killer would need to be "townside" here and I don't understand what that means.

What they are saying is that the SK needs to support the town early game and eliminate mafia. Winning as a SK is extremely difficult because you basically need to survive the whole game, so if you are an SK, the mafia probably suspect you exist and you need to eliminate them as fast as possible.

That's what they mean by townside.

I'm not 100% certain how you got so convinced of this SK idea. We have no evidence at this point truly. If there is one, it's probably enchant, but they would get killed soon by a suspecting maf anyhow.

@Titus - if you were picking who we lim today based solely on your scum reads, who do you want gone?

im happy to see deas is back to saying the same things that im thinking. if april's insistence that there was 1 scum between us was a maf ploy to tear us apart it was very clever and it also worked

not sure why you suspect me, Fire

In post 6337, fireisredsir wrote:and frog i would not get too attached to the idea of a serial killer. i think it's v unlikely. and i don't think it would be titus anyway if there was one

my guess is townsiding means, mafia is winning rn, and if they get too far ahead then serial killer would prob lose. so if they existed here, they would want to play on the town side of things and hunt mafia to even things up more

In post 6339, VP Baltar wrote:

In post 6335, Frogsterking wrote:Apparently there is something I don't understand about serial killers on this website though because Cape and Titus now have both said the killer would need to be "townside" here and I don't understand what that means.

What they are saying is that the SK needs to support the town early game and eliminate mafia. Winning as a SK is extremely difficult because you basically need to survive the whole game, so if you are an SK, the mafia probably suspect you exist and you need to eliminate them as fast as possible.

That's what they mean by townside.

Oh, it's a strategic idea not a mechanical one. Considering this seems to be common knowledge here I'd imagine the winrate of serial killer may historically have been even lower on epicmafia than it's been on mafiascum.

In post 5387, Save The Dragons wrote:i've played survivor with DV before

if we played mafia together it's been a while

In post 5392, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean they're really charismatic and friendly but they're also good at the game of survivor which sometimes requires you to be sneaky and lie to people. the two games have some similarities but they're fundamentally different so i'm not sure this is a helpful line of inquiry

I agree and I don't think there is much else to go on. Dease vibe is positive and friendly but based on their own admission they approach the game this way as scum too. Their completed large normal scumgame a couple years back shows they're capable of their play here so far as scum.

In post 5707, DeasVail wrote:Frogster, did you look at any town games of mine as well or just the scum game?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... start=600I

I'm reading this one now

Two

more

byo-yomi

Official Votecount 3.13

VP Baltar (5): Nero Cain, Save The Dragons, Frogsterking, tenebrousluminary, fireisredsir

[E-3]

Cape90 (3): Mathblade, Titus, Scorpious
April Ludgate (2): Cape90, Enchant
Frogsterking (1): Eyes without a face
Nero Cain (1): VP Baltar

Not Voting (3): DeasVail, Galron, April Ludgate

With 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to achieve an elimination.

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2022-03-25 22:15:00).

click here for joined mod iso.

In post 6342, Nero Cain wrote:not sure why you suspect me, Fire

the gamestate doesn't really make sense to me if vp is maf so im considering other possibilities

but idk if any of those possibilities really make any more sense